ALM Equity AB (ALM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr885.31M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -13.30%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 68
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Real Estate - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 7.80
• Shares Outstanding: 17,358,976
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,050
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,768
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.58B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: kr60.00 ▲(10.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/14/26

The score is driven by solid cash-flow strength and a stable balance sheet, offset by continued net losses and declining revenue. Technicals are supportive with strong momentum, but valuation is penalized by negative earnings and the absence of dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistently positive and improving operating and free cash flow provides durable liquidity and financial flexibility. It funds project development and debt service, cushions against accounting losses, and supports capital allocation without immediate reliance on external financing, assuming cash conversion persists.

Manageable leverage

Leverage at ~0.6x equity is moderate for real estate and reduces refinancing and solvency risk. A solid equity cushion helps absorb property value swings and gives the company scope to finance new projects or withstand rate volatility while executing long-term development and ownership strategies.

Dual revenue model

A business mix of project development (one‑time sale profits) and recurring rental income diversifies cash flows across cycles. Development can deliver upside when markets recover, while owned investment properties generate steady NOI that stabilizes earnings over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Ongoing net losses

Persistent net losses indicate core operations haven't reached sustainable profitability despite positive cash flow. Continued losses can erode equity, limit reinvestment, and require management to convert projects into profitable sales or improve NOI to produce long-term shareholder returns.

Declining revenue trend

A material drop in revenue signals softer project completions or weaker leasing/sales demand, which pressures margins and future cash generation. If the decline persists, it will constrain development throughput and rental growth, making recovery dependent on market demand and execution timing.

Weak returns on equity

A sizable equity base that produces negative ROE points to inefficient capital use. Over the medium term, investors need improving ROE from higher operating margins, successful project realizations, or asset revaluation to justify capital employed and to generate sustainable shareholder value.

ALM Equity AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ALM Equity AB (publ) operates as a real estate development company in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Management, Project Development, Construction, Financing, and Digital Services. The Management segment acquires and manages surface-efficient properties in locations close to communications in Greater Stockholm. The Project Development segment acquires, develops, and sells housing and commercial projects under the ALM Bostad, Småa, Järntorget, and Abacus brands. The Construction segment designs, plans, and executes construction for tenant-owner associations and property developers; builds housing and commercial properties as a construction contractor; and builds and delivers wooden modules for the construction of single-family houses, student housing, and apartment buildings. The Financing segment financing solutions for various properties and property projects. The Digital Services segment develops software and services that facilitates the sharing of information, resources, and services between neighbors, managers, and service companies under the Your Block brand. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

ALM Equity AB generates revenue primarily through its real estate development projects, which involve the construction and sale of residential units. The company earns money by acquiring land, developing properties, and then either selling these properties for profit or retaining them to generate rental income. Key revenue streams include the sale of completed residential units, rental income from managed properties, and potential government subsidies or incentives for sustainable building practices. Additionally, strategic partnerships with local municipalities and construction firms can enhance ALM's project pipeline and profitability, contributing to its overall earnings.

ALM Equity AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: cash flow is strong (positive and improving free cash flow), and leverage is manageable (debt ~0.6x equity), but profitability remains weak with ongoing net losses and declining TTM revenue.

Income Statement

Profitability is currently weak: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows negative operating profit and a net loss, even though losses are meaningfully smaller than in 2024. Revenue has also declined in the latest TTM period versus the prior year, pointing to softer activity. Margins remain thin, but the trajectory is improving compared with the very large losses posted in 2023–2024.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the sector, with debt at roughly 0.6x equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved from higher leverage in earlier years. Equity remains substantial relative to total assets, which helps cushion volatility. The key weakness is returns: losses are still driving negative return on equity, indicating the balance sheet is stable but not currently earning an adequate return.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are strongly positive and improved versus the prior year, supporting liquidity and financial flexibility. Cash flow also compares favorably to reported earnings (which are negative), suggesting non-cash charges and/or working-capital movements are helping cash conversion. The main risk is sustainability—cash flow strength needs to persist while profitability remains negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.11B	3.13B	2.39B	6.90B	5.26B	1.76B
Gross Profit	104.00M	273.00M	242.00M	1.73B	3.32B	321.00M
EBITDA	-185.00M	-850.00M	176.00M	1.63B	32.00M	399.00M
Net Income	-339.00M	-950.00M	-1.98B	-576.00M	3.39B	194.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.17B	5.47B	7.66B	11.52B	13.13B	9.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	577.00M	1.77B	1.02B	1.18B	2.15B	1.09B
Total Debt	1.32B	2.01B	4.16B	4.31B	5.06B	4.97B
Total Liabilities	1.91B	2.71B	4.68B	5.76B	5.98B	5.67B
Stockholders Equity	2.19B	2.77B	2.48B	4.97B	5.94B	2.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.21B	1.10B	-1.12B	-388.00M	828.00M	-73.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.21B	1.11B	-1.11B	-388.00M	832.00M	-58.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.00M	172.00M	770.00M	-641.00M	-2.22B	-703.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-825.00M	-51.00M	-285.00M	148.00M	2.64B	784.00M

ALM Equity AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 54.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ALM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.68, below the 50-day MA of 56.46, and below the 200-day MA of 63.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:ALM.

ALM Equity AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACRI.B	70 Neutral	kr466.76M	11.28	―	13.40%	-0.10%	426.11%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
DIOS	67 Neutral	kr9.93B	12.32	6.82%	2.58%	3.27%	―
ACRI.A	63 Neutral	kr466.76M	11.65	5.63%	13.73%	-0.10%	426.11%
ALM	61 Neutral	kr885.31M	-2.54	―	―	-13.30%	―
TRIAN.B	55 Neutral	kr3.75B	12.02	7.48%	―	2.86%	―