Sunrun (RUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 13.79%
• EPS Growth: -527.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,058
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Solar
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 232,041,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,514,852
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,276,439
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.01
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.27
• 1Y Price Target: $23.50
• Price Target Upside: 28.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▼(-1.64% Downside)

Score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, high leverage, and strained cash flows). Technicals are neutral, and valuation remains challenged due to lack of profitability. The latest earnings call and recent credit agreement amendment provide some support via cash generation guidance and improved financing runway, but do not fully offset core financial risk.

Positive Factors

Scale & Market Position

Sunrun's large installed base and multi-gigawatt generation and storage footprint create durable competitive advantages: scale lowers unit installation and procurement costs, strengthens utility and partner leverage, and expands recurring cash flow from long-term leases and PPAs across many residential customers.

Capital markets access

Sizable recent capital raises and available warehouse capacity indicate ongoing market access, enabling project financing without immediate equity dilution. Non-recourse securitizations and tax-equity fuel growth and support longer-term asset monetization strategies critical for capital-intensive residential solar deployment.

Storage-first product momentum

Higher storage attachment and the Flex product strengthen differentiation and recurring value per customer. Dispatchable storage improves revenue mix, raises lifetime subscriber value, and positions Sunrun to capture grid services and resilience demand—structural tailwinds that can sustain margins over time.

Negative Factors

Large ongoing losses

Deep negative profitability signals persistent structural losses that erode equity and limit retained earnings. Unless gross margins and operating efficiencies improve sustainably, continued losses will hamper reinvestment capacity and make achieving durable free cash flow and shareholder returns difficult.

High leverage

Very high leverage increases refinancing and covenant risk, raising sensitivity to interest rates and capital markets access. Heavy debt burdens constrain strategic flexibility, increase interest expense drag on future profitability, and heighten default risk if cash generation weakens.

Weak cash generation

Persistently negative OCF and sharply worsening FCF growth undermine self-funding of installations and working capital needs. This structural cash shortfall forces ongoing reliance on external financing, which can be costly or scarce and may limit sustainable growth or require dilutive capital solutions.

Sunrun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Sunrun generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale and installation of solar energy systems. The company offers customers various financing options, including cash purchases, solar leases, and power purchase agreements (PPAs), where customers pay for the solar energy produced rather than the system itself. In addition to initial system sales, Sunrun earns recurring revenue from long-term agreements under leases and PPAs, which provide a stable cash flow as customers pay over time for the energy generated. Furthermore, Sunrun benefits from federal and state tax incentives, such as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which can enhance the financial viability of solar projects. Partnerships with other companies, such as home improvement firms and utility companies, also contribute to Sunrun's growth by expanding its customer base and facilitating access to new markets.

Sunrun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sunrun is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement shows persistent losses and declining margins, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, and cash flow is under severe pressure. While there is some revenue growth, the overall financial health is concerning, with high risks associated with debt levels and negative profitability.

Income Statement

Sunrun's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company has experienced a consistent decline in profitability, with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins over the years. The TTM data shows a slight revenue growth of 8.8%, but this is overshadowed by substantial losses, as indicated by a net profit margin of -106.48% and an EBIT margin of -148.86%. The gross profit margin has also decreased, indicating pressure on cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.92 in the TTM period, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a high level of financial risk. While the company has a substantial asset base, the high debt levels pose a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Sunrun's cash flow statement highlights severe cash flow challenges. The company has negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -240.7% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but this is due to the large negative net income, not operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.32B	2.04B	2.26B	2.32B	1.61B	922.19M
Gross Profit	534.02M	328.55M	163.06M	298.71M	244.48M	178.66M
EBITDA	-2.73B	-2.91B	-1.51B	49.51M	-255.46M	-213.98M
Net Income	-2.47B	-2.85B	-1.60B	173.38M	-79.42M	-173.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.23B	19.90B	20.45B	19.27B	16.48B	14.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.16B	574.96M	678.82M	740.51M	617.63M	519.97M
Total Debt	14.72B	13.02B	11.09B	8.76B	6.87B	5.18B
Total Liabilities	17.58B	15.73B	13.54B	11.09B	8.91B	7.09B
Stockholders Equity	2.98B	2.55B	5.23B	6.71B	6.25B	6.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.24B	-3.47B	-3.43B	-2.86B	-2.50B	-1.29B
Operating Cash Flow	-776.75M	-766.15M	-820.74M	-848.79M	-817.19M	-317.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.37B	-2.70B	-1.09B	-713.84M	-489.41M	-497.79M
Financing Cash Flow	3.30B	3.43B	1.94B	1.67B	1.45B	1.16B

Sunrun Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 18.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RUN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.63, below the 50-day MA of 18.81, and above the 200-day MA of 13.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RUN.

Sunrun Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHLS	67 Neutral	$1.48B	43.39	5.86%	―	2.68%	2.90%
ENPH	64 Neutral	$4.54B	24.52	20.31%	―	20.97%	226.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ARRY	61 Neutral	$1.38B	-14.52	-7.75%	―	35.75%	37.97%
RUN	49 Neutral	$4.03B	-1.64	-59.68%	―	13.79%	-527.48%
SEDG	49 Neutral	$1.83B	-3.13	-78.09%	―	-0.14%	66.71%
CSIQ	45 Neutral	$1.47B	81.10	0.56%	―	-4.46%	1645.26%

Sunrun Corporate Events

Sunrun Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Maturity to 2028

On December 31, 2025, Sunrun Inc. amended its existing Credit Agreement with KeyBank and other lenders, extending the facility’s maturity date by one year to March 1, 2028, while reducing total commitments to about $321.4 million, roughly matching current utilization, and allowing further step-downs to no less than $150 million as principal is prepaid under cash-sweep provisions introduced earlier in 2024. The amendment also raises the letter of credit sublimit from $100 million to $150 million, tightens financial discipline by gradually increasing quarter-end liquidity requirements up to 20% of amounts utilized and lowering the maximum modified leverage ratio to 5.0x, and confirms that Sunrun was in compliance with all existing and modified covenants as of September 30, 2025, signaling maintained lender support and a more conservative capital structure as it manages leverage and liquidity in its financing strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (RUN) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunrun stock, see the RUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunrun Appoints Craig Cornelius to Board of Directors

On November 6, 2025, Sunrun Inc. appointed Craig Cornelius to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from eight to nine members. Cornelius, with extensive experience in the energy industry, will also serve on the Audit and Nominating, Governance, and Sustainability Committees. Sunrun reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with significant growth in aggregate subscriber value and contracted net value creation. The company continues to lead with a storage-first strategy, improving grid stability, and expanding capital market access. Sunrun’s financial performance highlights its strategic focus on energy independence and infrastructure development, with positive implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RUN) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunrun stock, see the RUN Stock Forecast page.