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Sunrun
(NASDAQ:RUN)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(0.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow) and high leverage, despite improved reported profitability. Technical signals are also bearish with the stock well below major moving averages and negative momentum indicators. Offsetting these risks are a very low P/E valuation and a generally constructive earnings-call outlook with reiterated 2026 cash-generation guidance and solid operational/financing progress.
Positive Factors
Storage attach & customer adds
High and rising storage attachment (73%) plus strong quarterly adds (≈19k) build a larger, dispatchable customer base that increases contracted recurring cash flows, boosts lifetime customer economics, and enables durable revenue diversification (retail power, VPP/grid services) over months to years.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
A stretched capital structure (very high debt relative to equity) materially reduces financial flexibility, increases refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity, and magnifies downside risk from project performance or slower monetization of contracts, creating a lasting constraint on strategic options.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Storage attach & customer adds
High and rising storage attachment (73%) plus strong quarterly adds (≈19k) build a larger, dispatchable customer base that increases contracted recurring cash flows, boosts lifetime customer economics, and enables durable revenue diversification (retail power, VPP/grid services) over months to years.
Read all positive factors
Sunrun Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across Sunrun’s business lines (e.g., leases/PPA, system sales, installations, services), showing which segments drive growth and margins. Highlights shifts toward higher-margin or one-time sales and reveals concentration risks or areas with the most upside.
Breaks down revenue across Sunrun’s business lines (e.g., leases/PPA, system sales, installations, services), showing which segments drive growth and margins. Highlights shifts toward higher-margin or one-time sales and reveals concentration risks or areas with the most upside.
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The Fly
The FlySunrun (RUN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.9
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth52.36%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees9,059
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySolar
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.45
Shares Outstanding238,549,290
10 Day Avg. Volume9,070,946
30 Day Avg. Volume11,013,180
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio-10.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.97Price Target Upside80.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.04B
Sunrun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sunrun Inc. is a company operating in the United States that specializes in providing comprehensive residential solar energy solutions. Their services encompass the entire lifecycle of a solar system, from initial design and development through in...
How the Company Makes Money
Sunrun makes money primarily by originating residential solar and storage projects and monetizing them through a mix of customer financing arrangements and third-party capital structures. Key revenue streams include: (1) Customer agreements (lease...
Sunrun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum (19k Q1 additions, 73% storage attach, >50% YoY dispatchable fleet growth), robust capital markets activity (multiple financings, $774M non‑recourse debt raised, securitization pricing improvement, ~1,000 MW pipeline) and reiterated full‑year guidance. Short‑term headwinds included negative Q1 cash generation driven largely by transaction timing, elevated unit creation costs (+18% YoY), affiliate channel contraction and some tax‑equity investor caution around FIAT rules. On balance the company emphasized durable competitive advantages, improving direct sales momentum, debt reduction and long‑term cash generation targets, so positives materially outweighed the transitory and manageable negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Customer Growth and Storage Adoption
Added ~19,000 customers in Q1; storage attachment rate increased to 73% (up 2 points sequentially). Average system size was up 5% from Q4.
Negative Updates
Negative Q1 Cash Generation and Timing-Driven Lumpiness
Reported cash generation was negative $59M in Q1 (or negative $31M excluding $28M net equipment safe-harbor investment). Management shifted certain project-finance transaction activity from Q1 into Q2, which materially impacted Q1 cash generation and created quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Customer Growth and Storage Adoption
Added ~19,000 customers in Q1; storage attachment rate increased to 73% (up 2 points sequentially). Average system size was up 5% from Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Sunrun reiterated its full‑year 2026 guidance and expects cash generation of $250 million to $450 million (excluding roughly $50 million–$100 million of equipment safe‑harbor investments); in Q1 the company reported cash generation of negative $59 million (negative $31 million excluding $28 million of safe‑harbor spend), added ~19,000 customers with a 73% storage attachment rate (up 2 points sequentially) and average system sizes up 5% Q/Q, and delivered aggregate subscriber value of ~$1.1 billion (Danny reported aggregate contracted subscriber value of $980 million) with contracted net value creation of $108 million (Danny reported upfront net value creation of $91 million, ~9% of contracted value), aggregate creation costs of $872 million, upfront net subscriber value of $5,136 per customer, repaid $92 million of recourse debt to finish the quarter with $680 million of unrestricted cash and $626 million of parent recourse debt, raised $774 million of non‑recourse asset‑level debt YTD, priced a $584 million securitization tranche at +220 bps, has closed/term‑sheeted capacity to fund ~1,000 MW of projects plus >$675 million in unused warehouse commitments to fund >250 MW, and monetized ~23% of Q1 subscribers through non‑retained/partially retained structures.Sunrun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.17B | 2.96B | 2.04B | 2.26B | 2.32B | 1.61B |
| Gross Profit | 966.55M | 792.50M | 328.55M | 163.06M | 298.71M | 244.48M |
| EBITDA | 750.95M | 2.05B | -2.91B | -1.51B | 49.51M | -255.46M |
| Net Income | 568.20M | 449.95M | -2.85B | -1.60B | 173.38M | -79.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.77B | 24.18B | 19.90B | 20.45B | 19.27B | 16.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 679.55M | 1.24B | 574.96M | 678.82M | 740.51M | 617.63M |
| Total Debt | 14.87B | 14.89B | 13.02B | 11.09B | 8.76B | 6.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.81B | 19.19B | 15.73B | 13.54B | 11.09B | 8.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.34B | 3.13B | 2.55B | 5.23B | 6.71B | 6.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -750.57M | -423.22M | -3.47B | -3.43B | -2.86B | -2.50B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -306.61M | -421.44M | -766.15M | -820.74M | -848.79M | -817.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.46B | -2.50B | -2.70B | -1.09B | -713.84M | -489.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.87B | 3.21B | 3.43B | 1.94B | 1.67B | 1.45B |
Sunrun Technical Analysis
Negative
9.94
Price Trends
13.15
Negative
12.99
Negative
15.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.72
Positive
27.17
Positive
4.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.04, below the 50-day MA of 13.15, and below the 200-day MA of 15.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.17 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RUN.
Sunrun Risk Analysis
Sunrun disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sunrun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sunrun Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $5.01B | 35.61 | 13.28% | ― | -1.64% | -6.91% | |
53 Neutral | $2.38B | 3.93 | 18.35% | ― | 52.36% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $2.62B | -6.50 | -79.58% | ― | 35.40% | 79.65% | |
46 Neutral | $936.30M | -9.04 | -3.60% | ― | -6.56% | -886.40% | |
44 Neutral | $39.13M | -2.82 | -11.21% | ― | 26.46% | 83.31% | |
38 Underperform | $88.47M | -0.50 | 51.99% | ― | 59.85% | -5.61% |
* Technology Sector Average
RUN
Sunrun
9.63
-1.12
-10.42%
CSIQ
Canadian Solar
13.66
1.65
13.79%
ENPH
Enphase Energy
36.32
2.84
8.48%
SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies
40.07
15.12
60.60%
SPRU
Spruce Power Holding
2.10
0.91
76.47%
SPWR
SunPower Inc
0.29
-1.56
-84.32%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.