Sunrun (RUN)
NASDAQ:RUN
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Sunrun
(NASDAQ:RUN)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-8.73% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality—especially persistent negative operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage—despite a rebound in revenue and reported profitability. Technicals remain bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD, only partially mitigated by oversold readings. A low P/E provides some valuation support, while the latest earnings call and financing/covenant updates are moderately positive but still highlight near-term cost and financing sensitivity.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation and deleveraging
Sustained multi-hundred-million dollar cash generation in 2025 materially improves Sunrun's ability to pay down recourse debt and fund operations without solely relying on new financings. That strengthens liquidity, supports covenant compliance and enables measured deleveraging and reinvestment over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative operating cash flow
Negative operating cash flow of this magnitude forces reliance on asset sales, tax equity and debt to fund growth. That structural cash burn increases refinancing frequency and cost, constrains capital allocation, and makes sustainable organic growth and true free-cash-flow conversion uncertain without continued financing improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation and deleveraging
Sustained multi-hundred-million dollar cash generation in 2025 materially improves Sunrun's ability to pay down recourse debt and fund operations without solely relying on new financings. That strengthens liquidity, supports covenant compliance and enables measured deleveraging and reinvestment over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Sunrun (RUN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth13.79%
EPS Growth-527.48%
CountryUS
Employees11,058
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySolar
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding234,492,400
10 Day Avg. Volume7,970,476
30 Day Avg. Volume11,118,715
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio-10.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda27.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.82Price Target Upside65.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.99B
Sunrun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads g...
How the Company Makes Money
Sunrun generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale and installation of solar energy systems. The company offers customers various financing options, including cash purchases, solar leases, and power purchase agree...
Sunrun Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic adjustments might be needed.
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic adjustments might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySunrun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a constructive outlook: Sunrun reported meaningful cash generation, strengthened its balance sheet, materially expanded storage and grid-service capabilities, and developed diversified financing partnerships (including a major JV with Hannon Armstrong). Management acknowledged near-term headwinds—rising creation and insurance costs, a deliberate reduction in lower-margin affiliate volume (>40% decline), and some deterioration in quarterly value-creation metrics driven by financing mix—but positioned these as intentional, margin-focused decisions designed to improve long-term returns and scale its distributed power plant. The tone emphasized continued operational execution, product innovation (Flex), and confidence in growing direct-channel volumes and cash generation in 2026 despite short-term variability and modeling complexity from asset-sale activity.Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Sunrun delivered $377 million of cash generation for full-year 2025 and $187 million in Q4; paid down approximately $148 million of parent-level recourse debt in 2025 (including $81 million in Q4); increased unrestricted cash by $248 million and grew net earning assets by $1.8 billion.
Negative Updates
Quarterly declines in aggregate subscriber value and contracted net value creation
Q4 aggregate subscriber value was $1.3 billion, an 18% decline YoY; Q4 contracted net value creation was $176 million (≈14% margin on aggregate contracted subscriber value), lower than the prior year largely due to a higher mix of assets sold to infrastructure investors.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Sunrun delivered $377 million of cash generation for full-year 2025 and $187 million in Q4; paid down approximately $148 million of parent-level recourse debt in 2025 (including $81 million in Q4); increased unrestricted cash by $248 million and grew net earning assets by $1.8 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Sunrun guided to high single‑digit to low double‑digit growth in its Sunrun Direct business in 2026 (with Q1 as the low point and sequential growth thereafter) while cutting affiliate volumes by over 40%, which will modestly reduce overall volumes; management expects to expand storage attachment beyond the 71% exit rate in 2025 (up 9 ppt YoY) and to continue leveraging dispatchable assets. For the year they forecast aggregate subscriber value of $4.8–$5.2 billion, contracted net value creation of $650 million–$1.05 billion and cash generation of $250 million–$450 million (Q1 aggregate subscriber value $850–$950M, Q1 contracted net value creation $25–$125M; Q1 cash gen expected to be positive but dependent on March financings); they plan $50–$100 million of incremental safe‑harbor investments, expect to repay over $100 million of parent recourse debt in 2026 and to be below a 2x recourse/debt-to-cash‑generation target. Capital plans include continued use of asset‑sale/JV structures (51% of additions monetized in Q4 but expected to decline from that level), the HASI JV (expected to finance >300 MW across >40,000 homes with up to $500M of investment), and broad access to capital after adding ~$2.7B of tax equity and ~$2.8B of nonrecourse project debt in 2025 (Q4 metrics included aggregate subscriber value $1.3B, aggregate creation costs $1.0B, contracted net value creation $176M and Q4 cash generation $187M; full‑year 2025 cash generation was $377M).Sunrun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.96B | 2.04B | 2.26B | 2.32B | 1.61B |
| Gross Profit | 792.50M | 328.55M | 163.06M | 298.71M | 244.48M |
| EBITDA | 2.05B | -2.91B | -1.51B | 49.51M | -255.46M |
| Net Income | 449.95M | -2.85B | -1.60B | 173.38M | -79.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 24.18B | 19.90B | 20.45B | 19.27B | 16.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 574.96M | 678.82M | 740.51M | 617.63M |
| Total Debt | 14.89B | 13.02B | 11.09B | 8.76B | 6.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.19B | 15.73B | 13.54B | 11.09B | 8.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.13B | 2.55B | 5.23B | 6.71B | 6.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -423.22M | -3.47B | -3.43B | -2.86B | -2.50B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -421.44M | -766.15M | -820.74M | -848.79M | -817.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.50B | -2.70B | -1.09B | -713.84M | -489.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.21B | 3.43B | 1.94B | 1.67B | 1.45B |
Sunrun Technical Analysis
Negative
12.60
Price Trends
16.48
Negative
17.58
Negative
15.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.11
Negative
41.31
Neutral
44.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.34, below the 50-day MA of 16.48, and below the 200-day MA of 15.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RUN.
Sunrun Risk Analysis
Sunrun disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sunrun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sunrun Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $4.96B | 27.11 | 18.25% | ― | 20.97% | 226.98% | |
62 Neutral | $3.12B | -4.26 | -80.50% | ― | -0.14% | 66.71% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
58 Neutral | $1.11B | 42.34 | 5.78% | ― | 2.68% | 2.90% | |
53 Neutral | $1.12B | -26.92 | -15.43% | ― | 35.75% | 37.97% | |
47 Neutral | $2.95B | 9.51 | 15.46% | ― | 13.79% | -527.48% | |
44 Neutral | $900.78M | -15.38 | -3.69% | ― | -4.46% | 1645.26% |
* Technology Sector Average
RUN
Sunrun
12.60
6.74
115.02%
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Canadian Solar
13.45
4.80
55.49%
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37.84
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-39.02%
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51.76
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219.90%
ARRY
Array Technologies
7.33
2.46
50.51%
SHLS
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6.62
3.30
99.40%
Sunrun Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sunrun Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Maturity to 2028
Positive
Jan 6, 2026
On December 31, 2025, Sunrun Inc. amended its existing Credit Agreement with KeyBank and other lenders, extending the facility’s maturity date by one year to March 1, 2028, while reducing total commitments to about $321.4 million, roughly ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.