Sunrun (RUN) AI Stock Analysis

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Sunrun

(NASDAQ:RUN)

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:

$16.00

▼(-2.91% Downside)

Sunrun's overall stock score reflects a mix of strong technical momentum and positive earnings call highlights, offset by significant financial challenges and poor valuation. The company's robust operational performance and strategic focus on storage and home-to-grid programs are promising, but high leverage and ongoing losses pose substantial risks.

Positive Factors

Guidance and Value Creation

RUN targets total value creation of $1.0-1.3bn, up significantly from prior guidance of $650-850mm, driven by the aforementioned increased value and lower creation costs.

Market Growth Potential

RUN is a leader in residential energy services including solar, storage, EV charging, home energy management, etc., an underpenetrated market that is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR over the medium/long term.

Market Interest

SunRun's stock increased by over 15% in afterhours trading, indicating strong market interest in its future prospects.

Negative Factors

Financial Discrepancies

Sunrun's operations and maintenance costs per solar system are significantly higher than what the company reports, suggesting financial discrepancies.

Financial Stability

SunRun reported negative operational cash flow generation every year since 2014, raising concerns about its financial stability.

Loan and Market Conditions

SunRun's Safe Harbor guidance relies heavily on securing a nearly $1 billion loan backed mainly by solar equipment, which is seen as highly unlikely given the current market conditions.

Sunrun (RUN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.68B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)17.10M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.92

Revenue Growth3.27%

EPS Growth-81.63%

CountryUS

Employees11,058

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength86

IndustrySolar

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.07

Shares Outstanding230,732,570

10 Day Avg. Volume16,091,995

30 Day Avg. Volume17,103,305

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.55

Enterprise Value/Revenue7.88

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit42.56

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.68

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$15.91

Price Target Upside-3.46% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering20

Sunrun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSunrun Inc. is a leading residential solar energy company based in the United States, primarily focused on providing clean, affordable solar power solutions to homeowners. Founded in 2007, Sunrun designs, installs, and maintains solar energy systems, offering services that include solar panel installation, energy storage solutions, and energy management. The company operates in the renewable energy sector, leveraging technology to reduce energy costs for customers while promoting sustainable energy practices.

How the Company Makes MoneySunrun generates revenue through several key streams. The primary revenue source comes from the sale and installation of solar energy systems, where customers can choose to purchase the systems outright or finance them through loans or leases. Additionally, Sunrun offers Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), allowing customers to pay for the electricity generated by the solar panels at a predetermined rate, typically lower than their local utility rates. The company also earns revenue from the sale of energy storage systems and related services. Significant partnerships with various financial institutions and energy companies enhance its ability to provide financing options and expand its customer base, contributing to its overall earnings. Moreover, incentives such as federal tax credits for renewable energy investments further support the company's profitability.

Sunrun Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic adjustments might be needed.

Chart InsightsSunrun's revenue from 'Customer Agreements and Incentives' and 'Energy Systems and Product Sales' segments has shown a significant shift, with the former now leading revenue generation. This change aligns with Sunrun's strategic focus on increasing customer value and storage attachment rates, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite challenges from tariffs and tax policy uncertainties, Sunrun's innovative offerings and AI-driven efficiencies are driving growth. The company's robust cash generation and market share gains underscore its resilience and adaptability in a dynamic regulatory environment.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Sunrun Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial and operational performance, record-breaking metrics, and positive cash generation trends. While there were some challenges related to cash generation guidance and tax equity monetization timelines, the overall outlook remains positive with reaffirmed or raised guidance for the year.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Aggregate Subscriber Value

Sunrun generated $1.6 billion in aggregate subscriber value, representing a 40% year-over-year growth and significantly exceeding guidance.

Highest Ever Contracted Net Value Creation

Contracted net value creation reached $376 million, more than doubling from the previous quarter and achieving the highest result in company history.

Increased Storage Attachment Rate

Storage attachment rate grew to an all-time high of 70% of customer additions in the period.

Positive Cash Generation

Sunrun generated $27 million in cash, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of positive cash generation.

Debt Reduction

The company paid down $21 million in recourse debt, ending with $618 million in unrestricted cash, a $13 million increase from the prior quarter.

Strong Growth in Home-to-Grid Programs

Enrollment in home-to-grid programs grew by 300% year-over-year, providing 354 megawatts of power capacity to the grid.

Improved Net Subscriber Value

Net subscriber value grew 182% year-over-year to $17,000, the highest in company history.

Reaffirmed Guidance

Sunrun reiterated or raised all of its 2025 guidance, including aggregate subscriber value and contracted net value creation.

Negative Updates

Lower Cash Generation Than Guidance

Quarterly cash generation of $27 million was lower than prior guidance due to working capital timing and inventory investments.

Challenges in Tax Equity Monetization

Tax equity partners spent extra time digesting policy developments, leading to extended timelines for monetizing tax credits.

Company Guidance

During Sunrun's second quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company reported robust financial and operational performance, surpassing guidance and achieving significant year-over-year growth. Sunrun generated $1.6 billion in aggregate subscriber value, marking a 40% increase from the previous year, and recorded a contracted net value creation of $376 million, more than doubling from the prior quarter. The company also reported a 17 percentage point improvement in margin compared to the previous year, now representing an 11% margin on contracted subscriber value. Sunrun achieved a 70% attachment rate for storage offerings, driving record profitability. Additionally, Sunrun generated $27 million in cash for the quarter and paid down $21 million in recourse debt, maintaining $618 million in unrestricted cash. With nearly 200,000 storage systems installed and a plan to scale to over 10 gigawatt hours of dispatchable energy by 2029, Sunrun expects significant future cash flow. The company reiterated its guidance for 2025, projecting cash generation between $200 million to $500 million and contracted net value creation between $1 billion to $1.3 billion for the full year.

Sunrun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sunrun faces significant financial challenges. The income statement shows persistent losses and negative margins, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a high debt-to-equity ratio, and cash flow generation is weak. Despite some revenue growth, high debt levels and poor profitability pose risks to long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Negative

Sunrun's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability. The company has a negative net profit margin of -120.56% for TTM, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. Despite a slight revenue growth of 2.18% in the TTM period, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain deeply negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The gross profit margin has improved to 18.52% in the TTM, but overall, the financial performance is weak, with persistent losses and negative growth in previous years.

Balance Sheet

Negative

Sunrun's balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.83 in the TTM, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative at -76.77%, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 13.79%, suggesting a low proportion of equity in the asset base. While the company has a substantial asset base, the high debt levels pose a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Negative

The cash flow statement highlights severe cash flow challenges. Operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow has declined by 35.12% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from operations to cover its losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but this is due to the large negative net income rather than strong cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.13B	2.04B	2.26B	2.32B	1.61B	922.19M
Gross Profit	394.24M	328.55M	163.06M	298.71M	244.48M	178.66M
EBITDA	-2.96B	-2.91B	-1.46B	60.22M	-268.68M	-213.98M
Net Income	-2.57B	-2.85B	-1.60B	-849.64M	-980.53M	-626.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.23B	19.90B	20.45B	19.27B	16.48B	14.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.01B	574.96M	678.82M	740.51M	617.63M	519.97M
Total Debt	14.14B	13.02B	11.09B	8.73B	6.85B	5.16B
Total Liabilities	16.59B	15.73B	13.54B	11.09B	8.91B	7.09B
Stockholders Equity	2.93B	2.55B	5.23B	6.71B	6.25B	6.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.30B	-3.47B	-3.43B	-2.86B	-2.50B	-1.29B
Operating Cash Flow	-811.38M	-766.15M	-820.74M	-848.79M	-817.19M	-317.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.90B	-2.70B	-2.61B	-2.09B	-1.69B	-497.79M
Financing Cash Flow	3.69B	3.43B	3.47B	3.04B	2.65B	1.16B

Sunrun Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price16.48

Price Trends

50DMA

11.55

Positive

100DMA

9.82

Positive

200DMA

9.32

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.54

Negative

RSI

67.30

Neutral

STOCH

71.57

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.11, above the 50-day MA of 11.55, and above the 200-day MA of 9.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RUN.

Sunrun Risk Analysis

Sunrun disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sunrun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sunrun Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ENPH	73 Outperform	$4.93B	29.13	19.79%	―	4.39%	37.70%
SHLS	67 Neutral	$1.09B	53.21	3.77%	―	-11.95%	-7.87%
ARRY	64 Neutral	$1.38B	―	-44.13%	―	6.36%	-1683.09%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.09B	8.26	-10.59%	1.90%	8.56%	-9.51%
RUN	57 Neutral	$3.68B	―	-61.90%	―	3.27%	-81.63%
SEDG	51 Neutral	$2.01B	―	-131.02%	―	-36.07%	-233.14%
CSIQ	41 Neutral	$654.99M	20.05	-0.25%	―	-9.11%	-118.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RUN

Sunrun

16.48

-3.15

-16.05%

CSIQ

Canadian Solar

9.90

-2.56

-20.55%

ENPH

Enphase Energy

37.08

-76.03

-67.22%

SEDG

SolarEdge Technologies

33.21

11.49

52.90%

ARRY

Array Technologies

8.65

1.77

25.73%

SHLS

Shoals Technologies Group

6.78

0.70

11.51%

Sunrun Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Sunrun Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

Neutral

Jun 13, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Sunrun Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually, where five proposals were considered and voted upon. The stockholders elected three Class I directors, approved executive compensation, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm, amended the 2015 Equity Incentive Plan, and decided to hold annual advisory votes on executive compensation.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025