Rigetti Computing (RGTI) AI Stock Analysis

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Rigetti Computing

(NASDAQ:RGTI)

Select Model

Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:49Neutral

Price Target:

$17.50

▲(8.43% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, margin compression, widening losses, and ongoing cash burn) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a more positive earnings-call outlook driven by a strengthened cash position, specific near-term deployment milestones, and defined revenue-recognition timing for recent orders.

Positive Factors

Strong cash runway and no debt

A large cash balance (~$590M) and zero debt provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year R&D, validate systems, and absorb delays without near-term refinancing. This materially lowers solvency risk and underpins the company’s ability to pursue scaling and commercialization milestones.

Manufacturing capability (Fab 1) & chiplet architecture

Owning Fab 1 and proving chiplet-based modular scaling creates a structural manufacturing advantage: faster design-test iterations, IP capture, and a clearer path to scale qubit counts. That operational control supports reproducibility and long-term competitive differentiation in quantum hardware.

Commercial orders and strategic partnerships

Material purchase orders and geographic expansion validate product-market fit with national research centers and early commercial customers. Coupled with partnerships (AI/HPC, controls, error correction), these contracts and integrations strengthen ecosystem access and recurring service opportunities over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Multi-year revenue decline & margin compression

Sustained top-line contraction and steep gross-margin deterioration weaken the core economics needed to convert technical progress into profitable scale. Persistent revenue declines and lower margins reduce the firm’s ability to leverage fixed R&D and manufacturing investments and delay a credible path to self-sustaining profitability.

Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow

Consistent operating and free cash outflows indicate the business currently consumes capital to run and scale. Even with a large cash balance, persistent negative cash generation makes the company reliant on funding events or improved commercial traction to avoid dilution or curtailed investment in fabrication and product validation.

Execution risk from technical delays and rising expenses

Technical redesigns and intentional delivery delays increase time-to-revenue and consumption of engineering resources. Coupled with rising operating expenses and higher stock-based compensation, this elevates execution risk: scaling milestones may slip and require more cash, prolonging the commercialization timeline despite strong lab metrics.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.36B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)28.38M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.43

Revenue Growth-36.98%

EPS Growth-238.63%

CountryUS

Employees137

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength88

IndustryComputer Hardware

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.03

Shares Outstanding332,150,540

10 Day Avg. Volume26,895,949

30 Day Avg. Volume28,376,632

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.89

Price to Book (P/B)12.56

Price to Sales (P/S)968.01

P/FCF Ratio-88.85

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00

Enterprise Value/Revenue754.77

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.59K

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-20.82

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.13

Price Target Upside117.66% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

EPS Forecast (FY)-0.16

Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.13M

Rigetti Computing Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRigetti Computing, Inc. operates as an integrated systems company. The company builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors that power them. Its machines are integrated into various public, private, or hybrid clouds through its Quantum Cloud Services platform. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Berkeley, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyRigetti Computing generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) through its cloud platform, which allows businesses and researchers to access its quantum processors for various computational tasks. Additionally, the company partners with industry leaders and academic institutions to develop custom quantum solutions, which can include consulting services and the sale of proprietary quantum hardware. Strategic collaborations with technology giants and government agencies further enhance its revenue potential by securing funding for joint research and development projects, as well as providing access to broader markets.

Rigetti Computing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Rigetti Computing is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsRigetti Computing's revenue in the United States has been declining since late 2023, reflecting broader financial challenges highlighted in their earnings call. Despite technological advancements and strategic collaborations, the company faces revenue pressures, exacerbated by the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative. Meanwhile, Europe shows a significant uptick in revenue, possibly driven by new collaborations and contracts. Rigetti's focus on expanding its quantum computing capabilities and securing contracts like the one with the Air Force Research Laboratory could be pivotal in reversing the downward trend in U.S. revenue.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Rigetti Computing Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call emphasized substantial technical progress (industry-leading gate fidelities, sub-30 ns gate speeds, validated chiplet scaling, strategic partnerships) and a materially stronger balance sheet ($590M cash) that support the multi-year roadmap. Near-term financials showed revenue decline and margin compression in Q4, plus elevated operating expenses and an intentional delay to address tunable-coupler issues on the 108-qubit system. On balance, strong technical momentum and cash runway outweigh the near-term revenue and margin headwinds, though execution risks and the long commercialization timeline remain.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Breakthrough Gate Fidelities and Gate Speed

Achieved 2-qubit gate fidelity as high as 99.9% at a 28 ns gate speed (Adiabatic CZ on ProDrive); maintained 1-qubit gate fidelity at 99.9%. Reported median 2-qubit fidelities of 99.7% (9-qubit), 99.6% (36-qubit) and 99% (108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q). Company expects to deploy the 108-qubit system with ~99.5% median 2-qubit fidelity by end of March 2026 and targets >150 qubits at ~99.7% median 2-qubit fidelity by end of December 2026, and >1,000 qubits at ~99.8% median 2-qubit fidelity by ~end of 2027.

Chiplet Architecture Demonstrated and Fab 1 Competitive Advantage

Successfully deployed multiple systems to the cloud (including an 84-qubit monolithic chip system and a 36-qubit chiplet base system) and demonstrated that chiplet timing works in practice. Operates Fab 1 (integrated quantum device manufacturing facility) enabling tight design-fabrication-testing cycles and providing a durable competitive advantage for scaling beyond 100 qubits.

Notable Commercial Orders and Geographic Expansion

Secured an $8.4M order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit on-premises system (scheduled H2 2026). Announced ~ $5.7M in purchase orders for two upgradeable 9-qubit Novera on-premises systems (expected to drive Q1–Q2 2026 revenue recognition). Secured a Novera QPU order from a Japanese research organization (delivery expected April 2026) — Rigetti's first QPU in Japan.

Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Integrations

Expanded collaborations with Riverlane (real-time quantum error correction), NVIDIA (NVQLink / hybrid quantum-AI integration), QphoX (optical readout research), Quanta Computer (controls), and others. These partnerships support error correction, hybrid workflows and integration with AI/HPC ecosystems (e.g., CUDA Quantum / NVQLink).

Strengthened Balance Sheet and Runway

Ended 2025 with approximately $590M in cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments versus ~$217M at end of 2024, and no debt — providing runway and flexibility to execute the multi-year roadmap toward quantum advantage.

Improved Non-GAAP Loss and Clear Revenue Recognition Guidance

Non-GAAP net loss improved to $11.3M (−19.3% vs. prior-year quarter $14.0M) or $0.03 per share (vs. $0.06 prior-year). Management provided timing guidance: less than half of the $5.7M Novera revenue expected in Q1 2026 with remainder in Q2 2026; C-DAC $8.4M recognized at point-in-time upon H2 2026 validation. Company expects significant Q1 year-over-year revenue growth driven by Novera shipments.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Revenue Decline and Variability

Q4 2025 revenue was $1.9M, down from $2.3M in Q4 2024 (≈ −17.4%). Management emphasized revenue variability driven by timing of system deliveries and government contract activity, producing uneven quarterly results at this early market stage.

Gross Margin Compression

Gross margin fell to 35% in Q4 2025 from 44% in Q4 2024 (a decline of 9 percentage points). Margin pressure was attributed primarily to contract mix and lower-margin strategic government/national lab contracts and resold dilution refrigeration equipment.

Rising Operating Expenses and Larger Operating Loss

Total operating expenses increased to $23.2M in Q4 2025 from $19.5M prior-year (+≈19%). Operating loss grew to $22.6M from $18.5M (+≈22%). Stock-based compensation increased to $5.6M from $3.4M (+≈65%), contributing to higher operating spend.

Delay and Technical Challenge on 108-Qubit General Availability

Identified tunable-coupler interactions on the 108-qubit system at higher scale which prompted an intentional delivery delay and a chip redesign to improve stability and control. While addressed, the issue caused deferred general availability and required additional validation.

Lower Margins on Certain Product Sales

Novera system sales that include dilution refrigeration are lower-margin (dilution refrigerators are resold items and limit markup). CFO declined to disclose specific gross-margin breakdowns for competitive reasons. C-DAC sale did not include ongoing maintenance/support (separate PO expected later).

Market Still Early-Stage and Funding Uncertainty

Management reiterated that the quantum market remains research-driven (government labs, national centers, universities, early commercial researchers). Broader market progress and commercial adoption hinge on continued government funding initiatives (e.g., NQIRA), which remain pending and create longer-term timing uncertainty for broader commercialization.

Company Guidance

Rigetti’s guidance centered on near‑term deployment and multi‑year scaling milestones plus clear revenue timing and a strong balance sheet: they expect to deploy the 108‑qubit chiplet system around end‑March 2026 with ~99.9% 1‑qubit fidelity and ~99.5% median 2‑qubit fidelity (lab peak 2‑qubit fidelity as high as 99.9% at 28 ns with an Adiabatic CZ), plan a >150‑qubit system by ~end‑Dec 2026 at ~99.7% median 2‑qubit fidelity and to scale to >1,000 qubits by ~end‑2027 targeting ~99.8% median 2‑qubit fidelity (their stated quantum‑advantage target is ~1,000 qubits, ~99.9% 2‑qubit fidelity, gate speeds <15 ns and integrated error mitigation, which they estimate is roughly three years away); commercially they cited an $8.4M C‑DAC 108‑qubit order (rev‑rec in H2‑2026 after validation) and ~$5.7M of Novera orders (a little under half rev‑rec’d in Q1‑2026 and the balance in Q2, with a Japan Novera shipping in April and rev‑rec in Q2), noted Q4‑2025 revenue of $1.9M (vs $2.3M LY), Q4 gross margin 35% (vs 44% LY), Q4 operating expense $23.2M, Q4 non‑GAAP net loss $11.3M or $0.03/share (vs $14M/$0.06 LY), and ended the year with ~$590M in cash/equivalents/AFS (vs $217M at end‑2024) and no debt, which management said provides runway to execute the roadmap.

Rigetti Computing Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is weak: multi-year revenue contraction with a sharp 2025 decline, meaningful gross-margin compression, and widening losses. The balance sheet is a bright spot (very low leverage and a much larger equity/cash position), but persistent negative operating and free cash flow keeps overall financial quality pressured.

Income Statement

Very Negative

Revenue has been shrinking for several years, including a sharp drop in 2025 (annual revenue down ~34% vs. 2024). Gross margin also compressed materially in 2025 (to ~29% from ~53% in 2024), while losses widened significantly, with net margin extremely negative in 2025. The key positive is that the business still generates positive gross profit, but profitability is deteriorating and top-line traction remains weak.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered: debt is low relative to equity in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.01), and equity has expanded substantially over time. That said, returns remain deeply negative because losses are large, so the capital base is not currently generating economic returns—strong solvency, weak profitability.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash burn remains a major issue: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative every year shown, including 2025 (operating cash flow about -$59M; free cash flow about -$77M). A modest improvement in free cash flow in 2025 versus 2024 is a constructive sign, but the company is still consuming significant cash and has not demonstrated a path to self-funding operations.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.09M	10.79M	12.01M	13.10M	8.20M
Gross Profit	2.06M	5.70M	9.21M	10.23M	1.92M
EBITDA	-76.49M	-190.83M	-61.90M	-59.22M	-31.13M
Net Income	-216.21M	-200.99M	-75.11M	-71.52M	-38.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	666.57M	284.79M	159.91M	203.44M	46.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.85M	192.09M	99.93M	142.81M	11.73M
Total Debt	7.17M	8.80M	30.57M	39.14M	24.79M
Total Liabilities	120.38M	158.20M	50.33M	53.22M	36.43M
Stockholders Equity	546.20M	126.59M	109.59M	150.22M	9.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-77.22M	-61.73M	-59.64M	-85.43M	-36.30M
Operating Cash Flow	-58.54M	-50.63M	-50.58M	-62.69M	-29.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-403.33M	-78.36M	773.00K	-107.02M	-7.01M
Financing Cash Flow	439.09M	175.46M	13.23M	215.45M	25.83M

Rigetti Computing Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price16.14

Price Trends

50DMA

19.62

Negative

100DMA

24.37

Negative

200DMA

22.23

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.72

Negative

RSI

41.48

Neutral

STOCH

16.83

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGTI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.84, below the 50-day MA of 19.62, and below the 200-day MA of 22.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RGTI.

Rigetti Computing Risk Analysis

Rigetti Computing disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rigetti Computing reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rigetti Computing Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
IONQ	53 Neutral	$12.21B	5.51	-28.03%	―	113.07%	-555.52%
QUBT	52 Neutral	$1.65B	―	-2.42%	―	41.51%	-111.74%
RGTI	49 Neutral	$5.36B	-31.73	-51.53%	―	-36.98%	-238.63%
QBTS	48 Neutral	$6.46B	―	-58.58%	―	156.20%	-218.56%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RGTI

Rigetti Computing

16.22

5.96

58.09%

QUBT

Quantum Computing

7.54

-1.09

-12.63%

IONQ

IonQ

33.31

10.63

46.87%

QBTS

D-Wave Quantum

17.47

6.67

61.76%

Rigetti Computing Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements

Rigetti Wins C-DAC Contract for 108-Qubit Quantum System

Positive

Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Rigetti Computing announced an $8.4 million order from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) for a 108-qubit quantum computer that will be installed on-premises at C-DAC’s Bengaluru center, with deployment planned for the second half of 2026. The system will feature Rigetti’s proprietary chiplet-based architecture and marks the first quantum computer to be integrated into C-DAC’s supercomputing data center, reinforcing Rigetti’s role in supplying state-of-the-art, on-premises quantum systems to national research institutions. This contract deepens Rigetti’s existing relationship with C-DAC, following a September 2025 memorandum of understanding to co-develop hybrid quantum computing systems, and underscores growing government demand for hybrid classical-quantum supercomputing infrastructure as part of broader national quantum technology initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (RGTI) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rigetti Computing stock, see the RGTI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements

Rigetti Delays Launch of Flagship 108-Qubit Quantum System

Negative

Jan 9, 2026

On January 9, 2026, Rigetti Computing announced that it is revising its roadmap and pushing back the general availability of its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus-1-108Q, to around the end of the first quarter of 2026, as it addresses complexities with tunable couplers and runs another chip iteration to optimize performance. The company reported achieving a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99% on the 108-qubit system and even higher fidelities on its 9-qubit and 36-qubit platforms, positioning Cepheus-1-108Q—built from twelve 9-qubit chiplets using its modular architecture—to become both Rigetti’s highest qubit-count machine and the industry’s largest modular quantum system, underscoring its efforts to enhance system reliability for customers even at the cost of a short-term delay.

The most recent analyst rating on (RGTI) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rigetti Computing stock, see the RGTI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 05, 2026