Pattern Group, Inc. Class A (PTRN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 125.3
• Beta (1Y): 2.97
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 154,522,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,637,290
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,130,831
• PEG Ratio: -4.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 138.99
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 80.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.15B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(3.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/11/26

PTRN scores well on fundamentals and outlook, driven by strong growth, improving cash generation, and positive guidance, plus a supportive buyback authorization. The score is held back by pressured 2025 profitability/returns, weak current technical momentum, and an elevated valuation (high P/E) that increases execution risk.

Positive Factors

Multi-year revenue growth

Sustained high revenue growth over multiple years shows durable product-market fit and successful scaling of marketplace services. This multi-year momentum supports long-term investor returns by expanding addressable market share and justifying continued investment in technology and logistics.

Improving cash generation & low leverage

Consistent positive free cash flow and improving operating cash generation, combined with very low debt levels, provide financial flexibility to fund growth, invest in the platform, and execute the $100M repurchase. Strong cash quality reduces refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.

Proprietary AI/data-driven platform

A technology-led model that integrates advertising, content, pricing and logistics creates durable competitive advantages: scale effects, automation of operations, and higher net revenue retention. These capabilities underpin diversification efforts and sustainable unit economics as volumes grow.

Negative Factors

Profitability compression and weak ROE

A sharp drop in net margin and ROE signals diminished operating leverage and weaker returns on incremental capital. Unless operating efficiency or pricing power improves, low returns constrain reinvestment capacity and heighten execution risk across the firm's growth initiatives over the next several quarters.

GAAP losses and IPO-related charges

Significant one-time IPO-related charges and large stock-based compensation have depressed GAAP profits and introduced earnings volatility. This reduces near-term reported profitability, complicates comparability, and can pressure margins if compensation or related costs remain elevated.

Channel concentration risk

Although non-Amazon revenue is growing rapidly, it remains a small share of total sales, leaving the business exposed to platform concentration and fee/algorithm shifts. Durable risk remains until channel diversification materially reduces dependence on any single marketplace.

Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

A tech-enabled ecommerce accelerator. Pattern helps brands grow sales across global online marketplaces (including Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, etc.) via technology, analytics, logistics, advertising & content tools; they also purchase, distribute, and sell products on behalf of brands in many markets.

Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and steady healthy gross margins support the business quality, and cash flow is positive and improving. The main offset is the sharp 2025 profitability/return compression (very low net margin and ROE decline), which raises questions about near-term operating leverage.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong across the last three annual periods (about +38% in 2023, +31% in 2024, and +41% in 2025), and gross margin stays healthy and consistent (~43–44%), indicating solid pricing power and/or scalable delivery. However, profitability deteriorated sharply in 2025: net margin fell to ~0.6% (from ~3.8% in 2024) and operating margin compressed materially, suggesting higher operating costs, investment ramp, or one-time headwinds. Overall: excellent top-line momentum, but weaker near-term earnings quality and margin stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.05–0.08 across 2023–2025) and a rising equity base, providing flexibility to fund growth. Total assets and equity both increased meaningfully over time, which supports scalability. The main blemish is that returns on equity fell sharply in 2025 (~2.8% vs ~17.9% in 2024), driven by the steep drop in profitability rather than balance sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow and free cash flow both grew over the period, and free cash flow remains positive in all years. Cash conversion is generally supportive (free cash flow is ~65% of net income in 2023, ~71% in 2024, and ~79% in 2025), which helps validate earnings quality despite profit pressure. A watch item is that operating cash flow as a share of revenue remains modest (roughly ~26–29%), implying the business is still working to translate scale into stronger cash efficiency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.50B	1.80B	1.37B
Gross Profit	1.07B	781.35M	601.21M
EBITDA	42.21M	106.14M	68.48M
Net Income	16.25M	67.86M	41.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	947.64M	664.42M	490.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	289.05M	175.62M	127.23M
Total Debt	30.84M	30.13M	19.10M
Total Liabilities	366.64M	285.10M	177.92M
Stockholders Equity	581.00M	379.32M	313.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	78.92M	49.90M	26.98M
Operating Cash Flow	99.41M	70.35M	41.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.77M	-20.44M	-14.50M
Financing Cash Flow	53.71M	-2.90M	0.00

Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTRN	65 Neutral	$2.05B	125.30	-30.29%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TGL	45 Neutral	$6.37M	-0.44	-157.27%	―	-73.83%	98.11%
SOPA	41 Neutral	$8.54M	-0.35	-302.82%	―	4.65%	55.05%
IDAI	41 Neutral	$13.22M	-1.14	-302.04%	―	72.57%	-261.66%

Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Corporate Events

Pattern Group Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Plan

Pattern Group Inc., a Nasdaq-listed ecommerce acceleration specialist, reported record fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 5, 2026, highlighting its AI- and data-driven platform that manages advertising, content, logistics, pricing, and customer service across more than 70 global marketplaces. The company’s model combines proprietary technology, global logistics, and direct inventory ownership, aligning its economics with the sales performance of hundreds of brand partners worldwide.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Pattern posted record revenue of $723 million, up 40% year over year, with net income rising 58% to $29 million and adjusted EBITDA climbing 59% to $43 million, alongside a record net revenue retention of 124%. Full-year 2025 revenue reached a record $2.5 billion, up 39%, as adjusted EBITDA grew 52% to $153 million and free cash flow increased 58% to $79 million, while non-Amazon and international revenues surged 60% and 63%, respectively.

Net income for 2025 was $16 million, down from $68 million a year earlier, as results were weighed by $104 million in stock-based compensation and related taxes tied largely to the company’s IPO in the third quarter. Operating cash flow strengthened to $99 million, up 41% year over year, underscoring improved cash generation despite the accounting impact of equity awards.

On March 2, 2026, Pattern’s board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of its Series A common stock, to be executed via open-market purchases, private transactions, or other methods and funded by existing cash and future cash flows. The plan, which carries no obligation to buy a specific amount and can be suspended or terminated at any time, signals management’s confidence in the business and adds a capital return lever that could support the stock while balancing continued growth investment.

Looking ahead, Pattern guided to first-quarter 2026 revenue of $710 million to $720 million, implying 31% to 33% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EBITDA of $41 million to $42 million, up 22% to 24%. For full-year 2026, the company forecast revenue between $3.12 billion and $3.16 billion, representing 25% to 26% growth, and adjusted EBITDA of $180 million to $182 million, or 17% to 19% growth, positioning the company for continued scale in non-Amazon and international markets while reinforcing its profitability trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (PTRN) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pattern Group, Inc. Class A stock, see the PTRN Stock Forecast page.

Pattern Group announces date for 2025 earnings release

Pattern Group Inc. has imposed lock-up agreements on its officers, directors and major holders of Series A common stock and related securities in connection with its initial public offering, limiting their ability to sell or transfer shares for a defined period. On February 5, 2026, the company said it will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on March 5, 2026, a timing that is expected to trigger the end of the restricted trading period at the market open on March 9, 2026, potentially increasing the tradable float and liquidity of its shares once those constraints lapse.

The most recent analyst rating on (PTRN) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pattern Group, Inc. Class A stock, see the PTRN Stock Forecast page.