Pattern Group, Inc. Class A (PTRN)
NASDAQ:PTRN
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Pattern Group, Inc. Class A
(NASDAQ:PTRN)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(7.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (rapid growth, healthy gross margins, low leverage, and positive improving free cash flow) and supportive earnings-call guidance. This is meaningfully tempered by expensive valuation (very high P/E) and only moderate technical strength (notably still below the 100-day average), alongside the recent drop in reported profitability/ROE.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Consistent multi-year top-line growth and a 39% jump in 2025 demonstrate durable demand and successful scale across channels. Strong revenue momentum across existing and new brand partners supports reinvestment, capacity expansion, and provides a multi-month runway for margin recovery and product rollouts.
Negative Factors
Profitability and ROE Compression
A sharp decline in profitability drove ROE collapsing to ~2.8%, reflecting net margin erosion to ~0.6% in 2025. Such a material drop weakens return dynamics and the company’s ability to self-fund future growth, requiring several quarters of margin restoration before historical return levels are reattained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Consistent multi-year top-line growth and a 39% jump in 2025 demonstrate durable demand and successful scale across channels. Strong revenue momentum across existing and new brand partners supports reinvestment, capacity expansion, and provides a multi-month runway for margin recovery and product rollouts.
Read all positive factors
Pattern Group, Inc. Class A (PTRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.23B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)125.3
Beta (1Y)2.47
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding155,248,470
10 Day Avg. Volume605,815
30 Day Avg. Volume1,016,564
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.53
Price to Book (P/B)3.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio25.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda153.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside66.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.15B
Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
A tech-enabled ecommerce accelerator. Pattern helps brands grow sales across global online marketplaces (including Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, etc.) via technology, analytics, logistics, advertising & content tools; they also purchase, distribut...
Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple strong performance metrics: record revenue, record NRR (124%), rapid international and non-Amazon growth, significant SaaS/logistics acceleration, margin expansion and robust cash generation. Management also signaled continued heavy investment in R&D and fulfillment, some near-term margin pressure and conservatism in 2026 guidance (25%–26% growth) due to tough comps and a more normalized cadence of product expansions. There are execution and marketplace uncertainties tied to Agentic commerce evolution and short-term seasonality impacts, but the positive operational momentum and capital-light balance sheet position provide a solid foundation.Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 revenue increased 39% to $2.5 billion, with Q4 revenue up 40% year-over-year to $723 million.
Negative Updates
Guidance Implies Decelerating Growth
2026 revenue growth guidance of 25%–26% represents a slowdown from 39% growth in 2025, and management notes difficult comps in the back half of the year as a headwind.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 revenue increased 39% to $2.5 billion, with Q4 revenue up 40% year-over-year to $723 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Pattern guided Q1 2026 revenue of $710–720 million (up 31–33% year‑over‑year) and full‑year revenue of $3.12–3.16 billion (up 25–26%), with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $41–42 million (growth of 22–24%) and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of roughly $180–182 million (about 5.8% of expected revenue, up ~17–19%); management expects existing brand partner NRR to converge toward a long‑term target of ~115% by year‑end (trailing 12‑month NRR was a record 124% in 2025), cautioned on tougher second‑half comps and a more normalized cadence of new product expansions, plans increased R&D investment and fulfillment build‑out (including an East Coast facility), and highlighted prior year cash and profitability metrics of $153 million adjusted EBITDA (6.1% margin, +52% YoY), $99 million operating cash flow (+41% YoY), $79 million free cash flow (+58% YoY) with a 52% adjusted‑EBITDA‑to‑FCF conversion, ending the period with $289 million cash, no debt, $150 million revolver capacity and a $100 million share‑repurchase authorization.Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 1.80B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 781.35M | 601.21M |
| EBITDA | 42.21M | 106.14M | 68.48M |
| Net Income | 16.25M | 67.86M | 41.26M |
Balance Sheet | |||
| Total Assets | 947.64M | 664.42M | 490.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 289.05M | 175.62M | 127.23M |
| Total Debt | 30.84M | 30.13M | 19.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 366.64M | 285.10M | 177.92M |
| Stockholders Equity | 581.00M | 379.32M | 313.00M |
Cash Flow | |||
| Free Cash Flow | 78.92M | 49.90M | 26.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 99.41M | 70.35M | 41.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.77M | -20.44M | -14.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 53.71M | -2.90M | 0.00 |
Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Pattern Group, Inc. Class A disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pattern Group, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $2.23B | 125.30 | -30.29% | ― | ― | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
46 Neutral | $5.40M | -0.35 | -302.82% | ― | 4.65% | 55.05% | |
45 Neutral | $6.30M | -0.44 | -157.27% | ― | -73.83% | 98.11% | |
43 Neutral | $13.16M | -1.46 | -302.04% | ― | 72.57% | -261.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Pattern Group, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Pattern Group Announces Board Restructuring After Director Resignation
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
Pattern Group Inc. announced board changes following the resignation of director Daniel Gay, an early investor who participated in the company’s first fundraise in 2020. Gay informed the company on March 12, 2026 that he would not stand for ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Pattern Group Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Pattern Group Inc., a Nasdaq-listed ecommerce acceleration specialist, reported record fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 5, 2026, highlighting its AI- and data-driven platform that manages advertising, content, logistics, pricing,...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pattern Group announces date for 2025 earnings release
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
Pattern Group Inc. has imposed lock-up agreements on its officers, directors and major holders of Series A common stock and related securities in connection with its initial public offering, limiting their ability to sell or transfer shares for a ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.