PROG Holdings (PRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.12B
• Dividend Yield: 1.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 570.12K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 9.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,403
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 39,575,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 585,776
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 570,117
• PEG Ratio: -0.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.77
• 1Y Price Target: $44.50
• Price Target Upside: 56.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.05B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(5.82% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is driven primarily by resilient cash generation and a low valuation (P/E ~8), tempered by a clearly bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with weak momentum) and leverage/portfolio headwinds highlighted in the latest guidance despite constructive 2026 profitability targets and a deleveraging plan.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Consistent operating and free cash flow across periods indicates the core leasing and financing model reliably converts earnings into cash. That cash resilience supports reinvestment, deleveraging plans, buybacks and dividends, providing durable financial flexibility through cycles.

Ecosystem Cross‑Sell

Measurable cross-product engagement shows the company’s multiproduct strategy can deepen customer life-time value and lower acquisition costs. Durable distribution synergies between leasing, For and Money App improve recurring volume potential and support margin expansion over the medium term.

Rapid For (BNPL) Scale

Triple-digit GMV growth and positive adjusted EBITDA demonstrate improving unit economics and scaling benefits for the BNPL product. Sustainable margin improvement at For can materially diversify revenue and profit streams, reducing reliance on legacy leasing over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Higher Leverage

A near-term jump in net leverage materially tightens financial flexibility and increases interest and covenant sensitivity. Elevated leverage constrains capital allocation, forces prioritization of debt paydown over growth investments, and raises refinancing risk if consumer conditions deteriorate.

Progressive Leasing Portfolio Contraction

A shrinking leased asset base and sustained GMV declines imply persistent demand or origination headwinds in core leasing. That reduces fee and servicing income, pressures revenue predictability, and lengthens the time to rebuild margins even as new products scale.

Data/Statement Anomalies

Material inconsistencies in reported 2025 revenue and debt fields undermine transparency and make assessing leverage and profitability harder. Persistent reporting ambiguity increases uncertainty around execution and complicates monitoring of deleveraging progress and capital allocation decisions.

PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase solutions to customers for various merchandize in the furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry, mobile phones and accessories, mattresses, and automobile electronics and accessories markets through point-of-sale and e-commerce retail partners, as well in-store, mobile, and online solutions. The Vive segment provides second-look and revolving credit products to customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending through private label and Vive-branded credit cards. It offers lease-purchase solutions through approximately 24,000 third-party point-of-sale partner locations and e-commerce websites in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

PROG Holdings primarily makes money by originating and servicing consumer lease-to-own and retail financing transactions facilitated through merchant and retail partners. In its lease-to-own offering (historically associated with Progressive Leasing), the company pays the merchant for the customer’s selected merchandise at the point of sale and then collects recurring lease payments from the customer over the lease term; revenue is generated from the difference between total customer payments and the company’s costs (including the amount paid to merchants and other direct costs), with results influenced by customer payment behavior and credit performance. In its retail financing offering (historically associated with Vive Financial), the company earns revenue tied to financing arrangements offered through participating retailers (e.g., economics derived from financing/receivable yields and related program income where applicable). Across these programs, earnings are supported by (1) fees or finance/lease charges embedded in customer payment streams, (2) servicing income associated with managing the lease/financing accounts and collections, and (3) economics from merchant relationships that drive transaction volume (the company’s distribution is largely dependent on its network of retail/merchant partners and integrations at checkout). If additional segment-by-segment quantitative breakdowns, specific named partnerships, or current-period revenue mix are required, null.

PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a key strength (consistently positive operating cash flow and free cash flow with solid earnings quality), but the balance sheet is constrained by higher leverage versus 2020 (around ~1.0 debt-to-equity in 2021–2024) and the financial statement dataset shows anomalies in 2025 revenue/debt fields, reducing confidence in the latest period.

Income Statement

Revenue was broadly stable from 2021–2024 with modest growth in 2024, while profitability improved materially versus 2020’s loss and remained positive through 2024. Net margins have been mid-single to high-single digit in recent years, but the trajectory is uneven (declines in 2022–2023 before recovering in 2024). The 2025 annual revenue and margin fields appear inconsistent/blank (revenue shown as 0 with positive earnings), which limits confidence in the latest period’s income statement quality and weighs on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity moved from very low in 2020 to around ~1.0 in 2021–2024, indicating a more levered capital structure. Equity has been relatively stable and returns on equity were strong in 2021–2024, supporting the overall picture. However, the 2025 annual data shows total debt as 0 despite prior years carrying substantial debt, suggesting a potential data anomaly (or a major deleveraging not corroborated elsewhere), which increases uncertainty and caps the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow were consistently positive across all periods, and free cash flow has closely tracked net income (generally near a 1:1 relationship), indicating solid earnings quality. While free cash flow growth was negative in 2021–2024, 2025 shows a meaningful rebound, and free cash flow remains robust relative to reported profits. Overall, cash flow looks resilient even when earnings softened.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.41B	2.46B	2.41B	2.60B	2.68B
Gross Profit	794.53M	2.46B	831.96M	2.60B	857.91M
EBITDA	1.85B	1.85B	1.83B	1.98B	489.47M
Net Income	146.79M	197.25M	138.84M	98.71M	243.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.51B	1.49B	1.49B	1.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	308.77M	95.66M	155.42M	131.88M	170.16M
Total Debt	609.39M	655.06M	608.11M	612.09M	615.06M
Total Liabilities	863.99M	863.49M	899.92M	921.45M	942.35M
Stockholders Equity	746.42M	650.28M	591.33M	570.46M	679.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	324.92M	130.21M	194.62M	232.81M	236.41M
Operating Cash Flow	334.96M	138.53M	204.24M	242.48M	245.96M
Investing Cash Flow	6.64M	-79.17M	-38.83M	-53.53M	-82.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-128.49M	-119.12M	-141.87M	-227.22M	-30.28M

PROG Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.92, below the 50-day MA of 32.97, and below the 200-day MA of 31.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRG.

PROG Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
PRG	63 Neutral	$1.12B	8.05	21.17%	1.72%	3.71%	9.14%
WLFC	63 Neutral	$1.14B	8.05	16.94%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
MPU	55 Neutral	$61.21M	-1.41	-62.46%	―	19.87%	-111.99%
ALTG	54 Neutral	$193.60M	-3.18	-160.65%	4.88%	-3.95%	-47.70%
CTOS	47 Neutral	$1.40B	-42.03	-3.00%	―	7.39%	34.57%

PROG Holdings Corporate Events

PROG Holdings Updates 2026 Outlook After Purchasing Power Acquisition

On March 10, 2026, PROG Holdings updated its full-year 2026 outlook, narrowing revenue guidance for both the group and its recently acquired Purchasing Power unit ahead of an Investor Day in New York. Following the January 2026 acquisition, the company will apply ASC 606 accounting to Purchasing Power, reporting Travel and Service revenue net of certain direct costs, which lowers Purchasing Power’s 2026 revenue range by about $70 million while reducing total company revenue guidance to $2.95 billion–$3.07 billion.

PROG Holdings said the accounting change is not expected to materially affect Purchasing Power’s gross margin, earnings before taxes or adjusted EBITDA, and it still forecasts low double-digit revenue growth for the business. Management emphasized that its broader 2026 financial expectations and underlying assumptions remain intact, including a difficult demand environment for consumer durable goods but no assumed material economic slowdown from current geopolitical tensions, signaling stability in profitability despite the headline revenue reduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.

PROG Holdings Completes Purchasing Power Acquisition and Financing

On January 2, 2026, PROG Holdings closed its previously announced acquisition of Atlanta-based Purchasing Power, an employer-focused voluntary benefit company that lets workers buy brand-name products and services via payroll deduction, in a $420 million all-cash deal funded with a mix of cash on hand and new debt. To finance the transaction and related costs, the company entered into a fourth amendment to its existing credit agreement, adding a $125 million incremental term loan maturing in 2029, drawing $135 million from its revolving facility, revising interest-rate grids and commitment fees, loosening leverage covenants in the near term and creating additional flexibility for restricted payments and receivables and warehouse financing. The acquisition brings Purchasing Power’s more than 360 employer relationships and access to over 7 million employees into PROG’s ecosystem, broadening its employer-based distribution channel and is expected to enhance its ability to expand payment solutions, deepen customer engagement and support its long-term growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.