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KGHM Polska Miedz SA
(KGH)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
zł149.00
▼(-50.91% Downside)
Action:N/A
Date:09/16/25
The stock's outlook is anchored by resilient financial performance and attractive valuation, but is constrained by weak free cash flow and lack of technical support. The most significant risks stem from operational cash pressures and declining net profits, while international asset strength and improved margins partially offset these concerns. The absence of technical momentum and income appeal moderate the score further.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a robust demand for KGHM's products, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Negative Factors
Net Profit Decline
A significant decline in net profit due to exchange rate impacts can affect financial performance, limiting reinvestment capacity and dividend potential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a robust demand for KGHM's products, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Read all positive factors
KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
zł61.59B
Dividend Yield0.49%
Average Volume (3M)860.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth11.88%
EPS Growth148.23%
CountryPL
Employees34,413
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)34.45
Shares Outstanding200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume893,222
30 Day Avg. Volume860,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.54
P/FCF Ratio-36.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
zł337.50Price Target Upside11.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)38.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)zł48.84B
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. operates in the mining, production, and international distribution of copper, precious metals, and various non-ferrous metals, catering to both Polish and global markets. The company's comprehensive product lineup includes c...
How the Company Makes Money
KGHM generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and silver, which are its core products. The company extracts copper from its mining operations and refines it into various forms, including cathodes and wire rods, which are sold to manu...
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture driven by strong commodity prices, excellent overseas asset performance (notably Sierra Gorda), disciplined CapEx execution, tangible cost improvements and meaningful cash inflows/loan repayments from foreign assets. Management emphasized risk management (hedging and energy measures), stabilization of key operational risks (notably mine water), and the potential to resume dividends. Offsetting items include short‑term production/refinery disruptions, lower volumes and precious‑metal output in some international assets (partly due to asset disposals), derivative/FX and tax headwinds, and remaining uncertainty around large expansion decisions (Sierra Gorda 4th line) and greenfield exploration/M&A (Morocco). On balance, the positive drivers and strong cash and EBITDA performance outweigh the challenges, though some execution and market risks remain.Positive Updates
Strong commodity price backdrop
Copper price rose from about $8,500 at the start of 2025 to $12,500 at year-end (≈+47%), with silver also at higher levels — a market environment that materially supported group results in 2025.
Negative Updates
Electrolytic copper and refinery disruptions
Electrolytic copper production experienced a slight decrease vs 2024 due to refurbishment of the Glogow II electrorefinery earlier in the year; management indicated temporary production impacts though quarterly rates exceeded 50,000 t in later quarters.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong commodity price backdrop
Copper price rose from about $8,500 at the start of 2025 to $12,500 at year-end (≈+47%), with silver also at higher levels — a market environment that materially supported group results in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasizes disciplined investment and production targets: CapEx for the year is ~PLN 3.8bn (PLN 3.563bn executed previously) with ~70% (~PLN 3.014bn) to mining and ~PLN 1.3bn to deposit‑availability programs; three new shafts are prioritized (GG‑1 handover targeted Sep 2029) alongside ongoing exploration and drilling (Victoria to 1,400 m with lateral drilling, planned ~12 drills in other licences). Management is studying a Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line (potential ~+20% processing, ~USD 700m CapEx; decision mid‑year), aims to lift electrolytic copper by ~20,000 t and grow anode inventories from ~38,000 t toward ~50,000 t to cover Głogów outages, and will keep dividend policy (up to 30% of net profit; Board decision ~1 month). Financial and risk metrics: commodity backdrop remains strong (copper US$8,500→US$12,500 in 2025), hedges in place (~20% copper, 32% silver), gas roughly 50% secured for 2026, a 94 MW PV deal (BGK) expected to produce energy <PLN 200/MWh, and continued cost discipline (group C1 -3% y/y; ex‑tax -17%; KGHM Int -32%; Sierra Gorda -46%); overseas assets contributed ~48% of adjusted EBITDA and paid ~$379.7m into the group in 2025 (Sierra Gorda >$300m; >$1bn repaid cumulatively). Strategy to be published end of Q2.KGHM Polska Miedz SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
79
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.79B | 36.37B | 35.32B | 32.83B | 33.85B | 29.80B |
| Gross Profit | 9.61B | 6.24B | 5.97B | 2.66B | 6.31B | 6.27B |
| EBITDA | 11.99B | 7.97B | 6.87B | -1.14B | 7.52B | 10.24B |
| Net Income | 6.89B | 3.69B | 2.87B | -3.70B | 4.77B | 6.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 63.45B | 58.24B | 53.89B | 51.38B | 53.44B | 48.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 560.00M | 480.00M | 699.00M | 1.70B | 1.47B | 2.03B |
| Total Debt | 6.28B | 5.85B | 6.17B | 5.72B | 6.44B | 5.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.44B | 25.34B | 22.83B | 22.75B | 21.30B | 20.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.94B | 32.83B | 30.99B | 28.57B | 32.09B | 27.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -809.00M | -1.54B | -1.24B | 1.12B | -1.67B | 338.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.67B | 4.04B | 4.69B | 6.05B | 2.46B | 4.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.41B | -4.32B | -5.51B | -4.80B | -2.69B | -2.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -704.00M | -111.00M | -217.00M | -747.00M | -446.00M | -2.20B |
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Technical Analysis
Positive
303.50
Price Trends
330.82
Positive
320.64
Positive
295.95
Positive
Market Momentum
2.47
Negative
64.48
Neutral
94.74
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:KGH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 303.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 310.96, below the 50-day MA of 330.82, and above the 200-day MA of 295.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PL:KGH.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | zł12.32B | 18.53 | 30.49% | 4.18% | 6.04% | 23.34% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | zł61.59B | 8.94 | 20.54% | 0.49% | 11.88% | 148.23% | |
49 Neutral | zł1.16B | -19.08 | 0.60% | 2.59% | -9.42% | -217.46% | |
37 Underperform | zł1.49B | -12.02 | -9.12% | ― | -1.01% | -24.83% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
PL:KGH
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350.85
218.27
164.64%
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PL:KTY
Grupa KETY S.A.
1,294.00
448.88
53.11%
PL:STP
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218.00
-29.00
-11.74%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.