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KGHM Polska Miedz SA (PL:KGH)
:KGH
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KGHM Polska Miedz SA
(KGH)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
zł168.00
▼(-22.94% Downside)
KGHM Polska Miedz SA's stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and improved financial performance, despite challenges in cash flow and declining net profits. The valuation is reasonable, but the earnings call highlighted significant operational challenges, particularly in Polish operations.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.00B
Dividend Yield0.71%
Average Volume (3M)860.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth7.74%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryPL
Employees33,882
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.17
Shares Outstanding200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume893,222
30 Day Avg. Volume860,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-18.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$209.63Price Target Upside-3.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)11.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$36.28B
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKGHM Polska Miedz S.A. mines, produces, and sells copper, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. It offers copper cathodes, wire rods, Cu-Ofe and Cu-Ag wires, and granule products; silver in bullion bar and granule forms; gold bars; molybdenum; ammonium perrhenate, metallic rhenium, and rhenium powder; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.
How the Company Makes MoneyKGHM generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and silver, which are its core products. The company extracts copper from its mining operations and refines it into various forms, including cathodes and wire rods, which are sold to manufacturers and other industries. In addition to copper, KGHM also profits from the sale of silver, which is extracted as a byproduct during the copper refining process. The company benefits from fluctuating global commodity prices, which can significantly impact its revenue. Furthermore, KGHM has established strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiency and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. The diversification into other metals and minerals also provides additional revenue streams, reinforcing its financial stability.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced view with strong performance in EBITDA growth and production increases in Sierra Gorda, alongside challenges such as decreased copper production due to maintenance and exchange rate impacts.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Silver Price Surge
A 29% increase in silver prices in dollars and 23% in Polish zloty, impacting KGHM's results positively as a major silver producer.
Significant EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA in KGHM Group increased by 16% and KGHM Polska Miedz by 5% compared to 2024.
Sierra Gorda Production Increase
Sierra Gorda saw a 14% increase in copper production and nearly 100% increase in molybdenum production.
Cost Discipline
Cost discipline efforts led to minimal increases in domestic C1 costs and decreased C1 costs in international assets.
Energy Transition Progress
First PPAs in company history for wind energy, covering 5% of purchased energy annually, reducing Scope 2 emissions by 5%.
Negative Updates
Copper Production Decline
A 20,000-tonne decrease in electrolytic copper production due to maintenance at Glogow smelter.
Exchange Rate Challenges
Strengthening Polish zloty offset copper price increases, impacting financial results negatively.
Reduced KGHM International Copper Production
An 11% decrease in KGHM International's copper production due to lower ore quality and volume.
High Corporate Income Tax
A high corporate income tax (CIT) was observed in Q3, distorting analytical comparisons.
Company Guidance
During the conference call discussing the KGHM Group's Q3 2025 results, several key financial metrics and operational updates were highlighted. The average copper price for the first nine months was reported at $9,556 or PLN 36,257, with a 5% year-on-year increase in USD terms. The exchange rate between USD and PLN showed a 4% decrease year-on-year. Silver prices saw a notable rise, with a 23% increase in PLN and 29% in USD, reflecting KGHM's status as the second-largest silver producer globally. Adjusted EBITDA for KGHM Polska Miedz increased by 5%, while the KGHM Group saw a 16% rise year-on-year. Despite a 20,000-tonne decrease in electrolytic copper production due to maintenance at the Glogow smelter, KGHM's adjusted EBITDA remained strong. The company's cost discipline was emphasized, with a minimal increase in domestic C1 costs and a decrease when excluding tax. Molybdenum production in Sierra Gorda surged by 95%, contributing to the positive financial performance. The group's revenue decreased by 1% due to maintenance, but strong cost management led to a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA. The conference also highlighted strategic investments and development plans, including significant CapEx for new shafts and infrastructure enhancements.KGHM Polska Miedz SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
KGHM Polska Miedz SA shows strong revenue recovery and improved profitability margins, with stable leverage. However, challenges in cash flow generation persist, which could impact future financial flexibility.Income Statement
KGHM Polska Miedz SA has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 5.16% in the latest year, recovering from a decline in the previous year. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 16.91% from 8.09%, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 8.12%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 9.25%, showing a moderate return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with manageable leverage.75
Positive
Cash Flow
KGHM Polska Miedz SA experienced a decline in free cash flow, with a negative growth rate of -25.11%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.43, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow, which could impact future investments and debt servicing.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 35.40B | 35.32B | 32.83B | 33.85B | 29.80B | 23.63B |
| Gross Profit | 6.01B | 5.97B | 2.66B | 6.31B | 6.27B | 4.65B |
| EBITDA | 5.96B | 6.87B | -1.14B | 7.52B | 10.24B | 5.23B |
| Net Income | 2.37B | 2.87B | -3.70B | 4.77B | 6.16B | 1.80B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 54.41B | 53.89B | 51.38B | 53.44B | 48.03B | 42.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 705.00M | 699.00M | 1.70B | 1.47B | 2.03B | 2.53B |
| Total Debt | 5.86B | 6.17B | 5.72B | 6.44B | 5.95B | 7.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.29B | 22.83B | 22.75B | 21.30B | 20.89B | 21.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.05B | 30.99B | 28.57B | 32.09B | 27.05B | 20.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.38B | -1.24B | 1.12B | -1.67B | 338.00M | 2.18B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.48B | 4.69B | 6.05B | 2.46B | 4.27B | 5.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.96B | -5.51B | -4.80B | -2.69B | -2.53B | -3.66B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -618.00M | -217.00M | -747.00M | -446.00M | -2.20B | -548.00M |
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Technical Analysis
Positive
218.00
Price Trends
186.44
Positive
159.62
Positive
142.92
Positive
Market Momentum
6.70
Negative
75.44
Negative
93.29
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:KGH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 218 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 196.40, above the 50-day MA of 186.44, and above the 200-day MA of 142.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.44 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PL:KGH.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | €9.03B | 15.99 | 30.14% | 5.76% | 6.98% | -7.08% | |
71 Outperform | $41.00B | 15.97 | 7.89% | 0.71% | 7.74% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | zł1.32B | 59.21 | 0.60% | 2.50% | 0.21% | ― | |
47 Neutral | €911.96M | ― | -7.39% | ― | -4.86% | -295.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
PL:KGH
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67.63%
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PL:STP
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.