KGHM Polska Miedz SA (PL:KGH)
:KGH
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KGHM Polska Miedz SA
(KGH)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
zł147.00
▼(-56.97% Downside)
Action:N/ADate:09/14/25
KGHM's overall score of 61 is driven primarily by mixed financial performance, with strong income and balance sheet metrics offset by significant cash flow concerns. Valuation remains reasonable, while the earnings call highlights profitability challenges despite some operational positives. Technical analysis remains neutral due to limited data.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
zł62.40B
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)860.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.2
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth4.46%
EPS Growth28.56%
CountryPL
Employees33,882
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.29
Shares Outstanding200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume893,222
30 Day Avg. Volume860,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.54
P/FCF Ratio-36.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
zł304.06Price Target Upside-11.00% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)37.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)zł48.84B
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. mines, produces, and sells copper, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. It offers copper cathodes, wire rods, Cu-Ofe and Cu-Ag wires, and granule products; silver in bullion bar and granule ...
How the Company Makes Money
KGHM generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and silver, which are its core products. The company extracts copper from its mining operations and refines it into various forms, including cathodes and wire rods, which are sold to manu...
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture driven by strong commodity prices, excellent overseas asset performance (notably Sierra Gorda), disciplined CapEx execution, tangible cost improvements and meaningful cash inflows/loan repayments from foreign assets. Management emphasized risk management (hedging and energy measures), stabilization of key operational risks (notably mine water), and the potential to resume dividends. Offsetting items include short‑term production/refinery disruptions, lower volumes and precious‑metal output in some international assets (partly due to asset disposals), derivative/FX and tax headwinds, and remaining uncertainty around large expansion decisions (Sierra Gorda 4th line) and greenfield exploration/M&A (Morocco). On balance, the positive drivers and strong cash and EBITDA performance outweigh the challenges, though some execution and market risks remain.Positive Updates
Strong commodity price backdrop
Copper price rose from about $8,500 at the start of 2025 to $12,500 at year-end (≈+47%), with silver also at higher levels — a market environment that materially supported group results in 2025.
Negative Updates
Electrolytic copper and refinery disruptions
Electrolytic copper production experienced a slight decrease vs 2024 due to refurbishment of the Glogow II electrorefinery earlier in the year; management indicated temporary production impacts though quarterly rates exceeded 50,000 t in later quarters.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong commodity price backdrop
Copper price rose from about $8,500 at the start of 2025 to $12,500 at year-end (≈+47%), with silver also at higher levels — a market environment that materially supported group results in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasizes disciplined investment and production targets: CapEx for the year is ~PLN 3.8bn (PLN 3.563bn executed previously) with ~70% (~PLN 3.014bn) to mining and ~PLN 1.3bn to deposit‑availability programs; three new shafts are prioritized (GG‑1 handover targeted Sep 2029) alongside ongoing exploration and drilling (Victoria to 1,400 m with lateral drilling, planned ~12 drills in other licences). Management is studying a Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line (potential ~+20% processing, ~USD 700m CapEx; decision mid‑year), aims to lift electrolytic copper by ~20,000 t and grow anode inventories from ~38,000 t toward ~50,000 t to cover Głogów outages, and will keep dividend policy (up to 30% of net profit; Board decision ~1 month). Financial and risk metrics: commodity backdrop remains strong (copper US$8,500→US$12,500 in 2025), hedges in place (~20% copper, 32% silver), gas roughly 50% secured for 2026, a 94 MW PV deal (BGK) expected to produce energy <PLN 200/MWh, and continued cost discipline (group C1 -3% y/y; ex‑tax -17%; KGHM Int -32%; Sierra Gorda -46%); overseas assets contributed ~48% of adjusted EBITDA and paid ~$379.7m into the group in 2025 (Sierra Gorda >$300m; >$1bn repaid cumulatively). Strategy to be published end of Q2.KGHM Polska Miedz SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 36.37B | 35.32B | 32.83B | 33.85B | 29.80B |
| Gross Profit | 6.24B | 5.97B | 2.66B | 6.31B | 6.27B |
| EBITDA | 7.97B | 6.87B | -1.14B | 7.52B | 10.24B |
| Net Income | 3.69B | 2.87B | -3.70B | 4.77B | 6.16B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 58.24B | 53.89B | 51.38B | 53.44B | 48.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 480.00M | 699.00M | 1.70B | 1.47B | 2.03B |
| Total Debt | 5.85B | 6.17B | 5.72B | 6.44B | 5.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.34B | 22.83B | 22.75B | 21.30B | 20.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.83B | 30.99B | 28.57B | 32.09B | 27.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.54B | -1.24B | 1.12B | -1.67B | 338.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.04B | 4.69B | 6.05B | 2.46B | 4.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.32B | -5.51B | -4.80B | -2.69B | -2.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -111.00M | -217.00M | -747.00M | -446.00M | -2.20B |
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Technical Analysis
Positive
341.65
Price Trends
297.15
Positive
292.08
Positive
225.43
Positive
Market Momentum
10.48
Negative
68.84
Neutral
93.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:KGH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 341.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 290.14, above the 50-day MA of 297.15, and above the 200-day MA of 225.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PL:KGH.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | zł10.94B | 16.72 | 30.14% | 6.18% | 4.86% | 10.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | zł62.40B | 15.23 | 7.89% | 0.55% | 4.46% | 28.56% | |
47 Neutral | zł1.26B | -23.49 | 0.60% | 2.59% | -2.48% | -278.29% | |
43 Neutral | zł1.22B | -11.53 | -7.50% | ― | -4.90% | -573.03% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
PL:KGH
KGHM Polska Miedz SA
299.20
174.70
140.32%
PL:COG
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5.17
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-32.68%
PL:KTY
Grupa KETY S.A.
1,097.00
288.05
35.61%
PL:STP
Stalprodukt S.A.
235.00
-19.63
-7.71%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.