Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $878.08M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.15
• Revenue Growth: 29.45%
• EPS Growth: -3.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 71,237,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,589,981
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,464,167
• PEG Ratio: -0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.19
• 1Y Price Target: $28.22
• Price Target Upside: 165.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.48B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(3.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/10/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial momentum (especially cash flow) and a broadly positive earnings outlook with conservative risk management. These positives are tempered by elevated leverage and a clearly bearish technical trend (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), which meaningfully increases near-term risk despite oversold signals.

Positive Factors

Improved cash generation

TTM operating and free cash flow turned strongly positive and now roughly align with net income, indicating recent earnings are translating into real cash. Durable cash generation strengthens funding flexibility for ABS activity, debt servicing, buybacks and reinvestment, reducing reliance on external capital if sustained.

Revenue scaling with better margins

Material revenue growth with stable low-40% gross margins and TTM GAAP profitability demonstrates operating leverage and improved monetization. Sustained top-line scaling plus margin resilience supports durable profitability, funding of product expansion, and builds a stronger buffer against credit-cycle volatility.

Diversified funding & ABS capacity

Broadening funding via forward-flow agreements and revolving ABS creates persistent liquidity and lowers funding concentration risk. Revolving capacity and multiple ABS closings institutionalize access to capital, enabling scalable originations and reducing sensitivity to single-market dislocations over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Total debt rising to an elevated debt-to-equity ratio (~1.7x TTM) weakens financial flexibility. Higher leverage elevates interest and refinancing risk, constrains strategic options during stress, and magnifies earnings volatility from credit mark swings if operating cash flow weakens.

Ongoing credit impairment guidance

Explicit guidance for recurring $100–$150M rolling impairments signals persistent expected credit losses. This structural drag pressures net income and free cash flow, complicates margin sustainability, and demands ongoing capital or reserve capacity to absorb losses across credit cycles.

Deliberate production pullback reducing volume

Management's deliberate pullback in higher-volatility production trades short-term originations for portfolio stability. That reduces network volumes and fee income for multiple quarters, slowing scale benefits and revenue momentum even as credit quality objectives improve.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Pagaya primarily makes money by enabling lending partners to originate consumer credit and by monetizing the flow of those credit assets through its network. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) platform and service fees earned for providing its technology, data/analytics, and operational services to lending partners in connection with loan origination and ongoing asset management; and (2) revenue tied to the successful funding and/or securitization of loans that its platform helps underwrite and place with institutional capital sources, such as fees for arranging, structuring, or managing transactions where consumer loans are sold or financed. The model relies on partnerships with originators (banks/fintech lenders) that supply borrower applications and with capital providers (e.g., institutional investors) that purchase or finance the resulting loan assets. Pagaya’s earnings are influenced by loan origination volumes, credit performance of the underwritten assets, capital markets appetite and pricing for consumer loan securitizations, and the breadth and stability of its originator and funding relationships.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving operating trend with sharp revenue scaling and a major rebound in operating/free cash flow (strong TTM FCF). Offsetting this, balance-sheet leverage has risen materially (elevated debt-to-equity) and profitability/earnings quality remains inconsistent, increasing risk if conditions soften.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled sharply over the last several years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up strongly versus prior periods and gross margin holding relatively steady around the low-40% range (improved versus 2022–2023). Profitability has improved materially from large losses in 2022–2024 to positive net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and operating profitability also inflected higher. Offsetting this, the reported net margin is still shown as meaningfully negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating earnings quality/consistency remains a concern and results may be volatile quarter-to-quarter.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased notably: total debt has risen steadily while equity has not kept pace, leaving debt-to-equity elevated (about 1.7x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and higher in 2024). Returns on equity are deeply negative across the period, reflecting weak profitability relative to the capital base and limited cushion if earnings soften. The balance sheet is not distressed on the data provided, but the trajectory points to rising financial risk versus earlier years when leverage was low.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key bright spot. Operating cash flow and free cash flow improved dramatically from 2022–2023 levels to strong positive figures in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with robust free cash flow growth. Free cash flow is close to reported net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), suggesting earnings are translating reasonably well into cash lately. The main watch item is consistency: prior years showed negative/weak free cash flow, so durability through a full cycle remains to be proven.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.00B	772.81M	685.41M	445.87M
Gross Profit	512.17M	406.90M	263.87M	234.33M	213.54M
EBITDA	81.70M	67.89M	-44.51M	-308.73M	-33.72M
Net Income	81.39M	-401.41M	-128.44M	-302.32M	-91.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.55B	1.29B	1.21B	1.05B	590.26M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	288.35M	195.72M	188.97M	310.80M	200.94M
Total Debt	922.80M	680.81M	412.58M	212.26M	37.91M
Total Liabilities	990.56M	849.53M	542.63M	279.66M	105.86M
Stockholders Equity	480.02M	326.49M	559.72M	553.52M	308.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	224.72M	43.28M	-10.61M	-62.41M	43.19M
Operating Cash Flow	238.62M	66.52M	9.58M	-40.00M	49.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-309.71M	-498.64M	-412.69M	-159.95M	-140.74M
Financing Cash Flow	129.60M	436.69M	289.10M	332.45M	289.62M

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.28, below the 50-day MA of 15.80, and below the 200-day MA of 24.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGY.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ODD	68 Neutral	$767.96M	20.65	30.38%	―	25.80%	10.73%
DOCN	67 Neutral	$7.60B	42.89	-214.15%	―	14.20%	204.86%
AVPT	66 Neutral	$2.22B	82.10	7.96%	―	24.71%	99.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PAGS	60 Neutral	$2.73B	7.50	14.40%	1.40%	0.58%	5.76%
PGY	55 Neutral	$878.08M	20.12	20.09%	―	29.45%	-3.73%
WRD	45 Neutral	$2.11B	-16.40	-25.52%	―	―	―

Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events

Pagaya Technologies Reports Record Q4 and 2025 Profitability

Pagaya Technologies reported on February 9, 2026 that it achieved record profitability for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, as GAAP net income attributable to shareholders rose to $34 million for the quarter and $81 million for the year, reversing prior losses. Revenue growth of 20% in the quarter and 26% for 2025, alongside expanding network volume and higher fee revenue from personal loan and auto verticals, drove adjusted EBITDA to $98 million in Q4 and $371 million for the year.

The company highlighted operating leverage, reduced expenses and normalized impairments as key drivers, while also expanding its funding and distribution channels through $8.5 billion of asset‑backed securities issuance and new revolving structures. Pagaya further broadened its institutional support with inaugural forward flow agreements and a AAA‑rated revolving ABS deal across its three core asset classes, positioning the platform for continued scale and risk‑disciplined growth, with implications for greater resilience and deeper penetration of consumer credit markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.

Pagaya Technologies Announces Recent Senior Notes Repurchases

Since December 26, 2025, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has repurchased approximately $6.9 million in aggregate principal amount of its 8.875% Senior Notes due 2030 through several open-market transactions, funding the purchases with cash on hand. The company viewed buying back this debt at a significant discount to par as an attractive use of capital within its ongoing capital allocation strategy, and indicated it may conduct additional, limited liability management actions depending on market conditions and liquidity needs, signaling an active approach to managing its debt profile and interest costs for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGY) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pagaya Technologies Ltd stock, see the PGY Stock Forecast page.