Vaxcyte (PCVX) AI Stock Analysis

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Vaxcyte

(NASDAQ:PCVX)

48Neutral

Vaxcyte's overall stock score reflects its position as a promising biotech firm with strong financial backing and significant pipeline progress. The primary strengths include its robust cash reserves and strategic advancements in vaccine development. However, the lack of revenue and current technical weakness weigh on the score, tempered by the challenges of increased expenses and regulatory uncertainties highlighted in recent analyses.

Positive Factors

Innovation and Expansion

The newly announced VAX-XL was highlighted, indicating ongoing innovation and expansion in Vaxcyte's pipeline.

Market Positioning

Analysts reiterate Buy on PCVX’s underappreciated competitive positioning in the huge $8b+ PCV category.

Optimism for Future Trials

Management plans to optimize protein carrier allocation for the missed serotypes, which could drive better results in Phase 3.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Results

The VAX-24 infant study missed post-dose 3 primary serotype conversion rate non-inferiority criteria on 4 of 24 serotypes relative to Prevnar 20.

Investor Expectations

The topline data from the Ph2 trial evaluating VAX-24 in infants was below the relatively high Street expectations.

Management Confidence

There is less confidence that both VAX-24 & VAX-31 will deliver highly compelling efficacy in future infant datasets.

Vaxcyte (PCVX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.02B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.75M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.39

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS Growth7.75%

CountryUS

Employees414

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength71

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-3.88

Shares Outstanding128,761,630

10 Day Avg. Volume6,033,368

30 Day Avg. Volume2,749,761

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-21.60

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$124.13

Price Target Upside287.42% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Vaxcyte Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative vaccines for the prevention of infectious diseases. Operating within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, Vaxcyte's core product offerings include conjugate and protein-based vaccines designed to address significant unmet medical needs. The company's lead vaccine candidates aim to provide comprehensive protection against pneumococcal infections and other bacterial pathogens.

How the Company Makes MoneyVaxcyte makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company's revenue model involves research and development (R&D) investments to advance its vaccine pipeline through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and ultimately, market launch. Key revenue streams include potential product sales, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships or licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, Vaxcyte may benefit from government grants or funding to support vaccine development. Strategic collaborations with industry partners can also contribute to its earnings by sharing development costs and expanding market reach upon commercialization.

Vaxcyte Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vaxcyte's financial performance is typical for a biotech firm in an early stage, with no revenue and significant R&D expenses. The balance sheet shows strong liquidity and equity base, offsetting the operational losses. Cash flow from operations is negative but supported by financing activities.

Income Statement

Negative

Vaxcyte has consistently reported no revenue, which is typical for early-stage biotechnology companies focusing on product development. The company has a negative EBIT and EBITDA, indicating ongoing operational losses. The net income has been negative over the years, reflecting substantial R&D and operating expenses without offsetting revenue. However, this is a standard profile for a biotech firm in the development phase.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's balance sheet shows strong liquidity, with cash and short-term investments significantly exceeding total debt, resulting in a negative net debt. The stockholders' equity is robust, and the equity ratio is high, indicating financial stability. However, the lack of revenue generation and increasing liabilities over time are potential concerns if the trend continues without revenue.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow is negative, reflecting the company's pre-revenue stage and heavy investment in R&D. Free cash flow is also negative, though financing activities have been strong, suggesting continued investor confidence. The company has maintained its cash position through financing, offsetting the negative cash flow from operations.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
0.00	-75.00M	-9.20M	-1.80M	-1.41M
	EBIT
-569.55M	-468.04M	-232.26M	-103.67M	-89.58M
	EBITDA
-569.55M	-464.88M	-214.29M	-98.28M	-87.81M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-463.93M	-402.27M	-239.64M	-100.08M	-87.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.75B	1.08B	931.38M	245.97M	386.20M
	Total Assets
3.51B	1.41B	1.01B	324.34M	392.83M
	Total Debt
71.11M	29.22M	17.94M	16.78M	0.00
	Net Debt
-316.77M	-368.23M	-816.72M	-52.20M	-386.20M
	Total Liabilities
205.50M	167.45M	52.56M	40.32M	46.98M
	Stockholders Equity
3.31B	1.24B	953.61M	284.02M	345.84M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-475.05M	-364.67M	-176.44M	-127.95M	-47.78M
	Operating Cash Flow
-452.63M	-296.79M	-170.60M	-121.39M	-46.63M
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.01B	-773.31M	74.58M	-212.31M	-1.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
2.45B	639.81M	861.55M	17.80M	374.87M

Vaxcyte Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.04

Price Trends

50DMA

66.48

Negative

100DMA

77.11

Negative

200DMA

86.69

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-11.92

Positive

RSI

24.16

Positive

STOCH

47.42

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PCVX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.03, below the 50-day MA of 66.48, and below the 200-day MA of 86.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.16 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PCVX.

Vaxcyte Risk Analysis

Vaxcyte disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vaxcyte reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vaxcyte Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (48)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADMA	77 Outperform	$4.61B	23.97	81.65%	―	65.15%	―
VRNA	56 Neutral	$4.89B	―	-76.51%	―	―	-213.94%
ZLAB	54 Neutral	$3.45B	―	-31.41%	―	49.59%	24.92%
IONS	49 Neutral	$4.56B	―	-93.03%	―	-10.48%	-18.79%
PCVX	48 Neutral	$4.02B	―	-20.41%	―	―	7.75%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.46B	1.17	-48.25%	2.67%	19.50%	0.61%
CYTK	45 Neutral	$4.61B	―	435.49%	―	145.34%	3.20%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PCVX

Vaxcyte

30.23

-32.01

-51.43%

CYTK

Cytokinetics

38.56

-30.44

-44.12%

IONS

Ionis Pharmaceuticals

28.38

-13.16

-31.68%

ADMA

ADMA Biologics

22.15

15.99

259.58%

VRNA

Verona Pharma

58.47

42.27

260.93%

ZLAB

Zai Lab

30.38

15.96

110.68%

Vaxcyte Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 25, 2025 | % Change Since: -59.62% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted Vaxcyte's strong financial position, significant clinical and manufacturing progress, and proactive regulatory engagement. However, challenges include increased expenses, potential regulatory uncertainties, and the need to meet non-inferiority criteria in clinical studies. Vaxcyte remains optimistic about its pipeline and future growth.

Highlights

Strong Financial Position

Vaxcyte ended 2024 with $3.13 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, bolstered by $2.2 billion from successful equity offerings.

VAX-31 Clinical Success

VAX-31 showed strong Phase 1/2 results in adults, leading to its advancement to Phase 3, with Breakthrough Therapy Designation granted by the FDA.

Manufacturing Expansion

Vaxcyte is building a dedicated manufacturing suite with Lonza, on track for completion by early next year, supporting future global supply.

Progress in Early-Stage Vaccine Candidates

Vaxcyte continues to advance vaccine candidates against AMR threats, including VAX-A1 for Group A Strep.

Regulatory Engagement

Vaxcyte established a public affairs function, enhancing engagement with policymakers to support vaccine innovation.

Lowlights

Increased Expenses

R&D and G&A expenses increased in 2024 due to development, manufacturing, and personnel costs, with further increases expected in 2025.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Potential changes in vaccine policies under the new administration could impact future vaccine schedules and recommendations.

Challenges in Achieving Non-Inferiority

Concerns about meeting non-inferiority criteria in upcoming Phase 2 and 3 studies, especially given historical precedents of serotype misses.

Company Guidance

During the Vaxcyte fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, key guidance was provided on the company's financial and operational outlook. As of December 31, 2024, Vaxcyte reported a strong financial position with $3.13 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. The company anticipates significant increases in R&D and G&A expenses in 2025, primarily driven by manufacturing investments for the VAX-31 adult Phase 3 clinical program and the growth in personnel. Vaxcyte's dedicated manufacturing suite at Lonza is on track to be completed by early 2025, with $127.8 million in additional capital expenditures in 2024, bringing the total project cost to $214.3 million. Operationally, the company is advancing its PCV franchise, with the VAX-31 adult Phase 3 pivotal study expected to initiate by mid-2025 and top-line data anticipated in 2026. Additionally, Vaxcyte is progressing its VAX-24 and VAX-31 infant programs, with the first key dataset for VAX-31 expected by mid-2026. These efforts are supported by a robust pipeline aimed at addressing bacterial threats and antimicrobial resistance, ensuring Vaxcyte is well-prepared for sustainable growth and future vaccine launches.

Vaxcyte Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Vaxcyte Announces Positive Phase 2 Results for VAX-24

Positive

Mar 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Vaxcyte announced positive results from its Phase 2 study of VAX-24, a 24-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate for infants, showing it was well-tolerated and elicited strong immune responses. The company plans to advance the VAX-24 Mid dose to a potential Phase 3 program, pending further study results, and has also announced the development of VAX-XL, a third-generation PCV candidate. These developments reinforce Vaxcyte’s commitment to expanding vaccine coverage and addressing the global burden of pneumococcal disease, with significant implications for future clinical programs and market positioning.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.