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Ontrak (OTRKQ)
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Ontrak (OTRKQ) AI Stock Analysis

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OTRKQ

Ontrak

(OTC:OTRKQ)

Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
$0.00
▼(-100.00% Downside)
Ontrak's overall stock score is heavily impacted by its poor financial performance, with significant challenges in revenue, profitability, and leverage. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics highlight ongoing financial struggles. The lack of earnings call and corporate events data means these factors do not influence the score.

Ontrak (OTRKQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOntrak, Inc. (OTRK) is a healthcare technology company focused on improving outcomes for individuals with behavioral health conditions and chronic illnesses. The company leverages artificial intelligence and data analytics to provide personalized care management solutions. Ontrak's core services include behavioral health interventions, chronic condition management, and telehealth support, aimed at enhancing patient engagement and driving better health outcomes.
How the Company Makes MoneyOntrak generates revenue primarily through its performance-based contracts with health plans and insurers. The company earns fees for its services, which are contingent upon achieving specific health outcomes and cost savings for its clients. Key revenue streams include payments for enrollment in its care management programs, ongoing monthly fees for continued support, and bonuses tied to successful patient outcomes. Additionally, Ontrak has formed strategic partnerships with various health insurers to expand its reach and improve service offerings, contributing significantly to its earnings potential.

Ontrak Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with significant operational improvements and growth in membership contrasted by a notable decline in revenue and gross margin due to customer loss. While there are promising new business opportunities, the financial challenges remain a concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Expansion of Outreach Pool
Ontrak's outreach pool has expanded significantly over the past year with new customer implementations, including Intermountain Health and a Northeast regional plan.
Doubling of Enrolled Members
Ontrak reached a milestone with over 3,165 total enrolled members by the end of Q1 2025, nearly doubling year-over-year.
Operational Improvements
The company is operating with less than half the employees it had in Q4 2021 due to significant operational efficiencies and technology advancements.
New Revenue Opportunities
Ontrak is working on a significant revenue opportunity with a large Midwestern Medicaid plan and has several other proposals in the pipeline.
AI-Driven System Success
Ontrak's AI-driven advanced engagement system has improved care team productivity and driven meaningful outcomes, enhancing the company's service delivery.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Q1 2025 revenue was $2 million, reflecting a 25% decrease compared to the same period last year due to the loss of a major customer.
Decreased Revenue Per Member
Average revenue per health plan enrolled member per month decreased from $500 in Q4 2024 to $254 in Q1 2025, primarily due to a shift towards the lower-paying Engage program.
Gross Margin Decline
Q1 2025 gross margin decreased to 37% from 61% in Q4 2024, largely due to the lost customer and a shift in the mix of members.
Cash Flow Challenges
Cash flow from operations was negative $2.7 million, and the company borrowed funds to maintain cash reserves, indicating ongoing financial strain.
Company Guidance
During the Ontrak Health First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided optimistic guidance regarding its future prospects. Ontrak anticipates doubling its run rate revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by successful conversions of new customer opportunities, notably with a large Midwestern Medicaid plan. The company reported a significant increase in enrolled members, reaching 3,165 by the end of Q1, which nearly doubled year-over-year. The quarter's revenue was $2 million, reflecting a 25% decrease from the previous year, attributed to the loss of a customer at the end of 2024. However, the company expects Q2 2025 revenues to range from $2.2 million to $2.6 million, representing an 8% to 22% sequential increase. Ontrak's strategic investments in AI-driven technology and expanded solution offerings, including the Engage program, have significantly improved productivity and market reach, with the potential to address critical gaps in the behavioral health care landscape. The company also highlighted its strong pipeline of prospective contracts that could bring an additional $15 million in revenue, potentially doubling its current customer-based revenue.

Ontrak Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Ontrak Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.04
Price Trends
50DMA
0.38
Negative
100DMA
0.94
Negative
200DMA
1.28
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Negative
RSI
25.82
Positive
STOCH
16.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTRKQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.19, below the 50-day MA of 0.38, and below the 200-day MA of 1.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 25.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTRKQ.

Ontrak Risk Analysis

Ontrak disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ontrak reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ontrak Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$571.35M-64.27%-5.24%23.59%
51
Neutral
$7.91B-0.36-41.71%2.23%23.45%-1.86%
51
Neutral
$1.35B-14.18%-2.57%79.86%
50
Neutral
$109.03M-38.52%5.83%61.94%
38
Underperform
$425.78K-215.66%-21.03%47.41%
$69.11M
38
Underperform
$10.51M-3190.66%-280.85%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OTRKQ
Ontrak
0.04
-3.08
-98.72%
TDOC
Teladoc
7.63
0.12
1.60%
AMWL
American Well
6.72
-1.21
-15.26%
DH
Definitive Healthcare Corp
4.01
-0.29
-6.74%
EUDA
EUDA Health Holdings
1.50
-1.48
-49.66%
VSEE
VSee Health
0.67
-0.75
-52.82%

Ontrak Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesLegal Proceedings
Ontrak Files for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy
Negative
Aug 28, 2025

On August 28, 2025, Ontrak‘s board of directors decided to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, leading to the immediate resignation of all board members. This decision marks a significant shift in the company’s operations, potentially impacting its market presence and stakeholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ontrak Ceases Operations After Failed Partnership
Negative
Jul 31, 2025

Ontrak announced that on July 2, 2025, a major potential partner decided not to pursue a partnership, prompting the board to assess its financial situation and funding prospects. Due to the inability to meet financial covenants and lack of viable funding options, the board decided to cease operations and terminate all employees by July 31, 2025.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ontrak Faces Partnership Setback Amid Ongoing Prospects
Neutral
Jul 7, 2025

On July 2, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. was informed by a prospective partner that it would not pursue a partnership, affecting up to 9,000 lives for Wholehealth+ and 20,000 for Engage. Despite this setback, Ontrak continues to engage with four prospects in advanced sales stages, representing up to 13,000 lives for Wholehealth+ and 20,000 for Engage, and has 20 additional active prospects representing approximately 15 million plan lives.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ontrak Completes $3.24 Million Public Offering
Neutral
Jul 3, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. completed a public offering of common stock and warrants, raising approximately $3.24 million in net proceeds. The company plans to use these funds for working capital and general corporate purposes. The offering involved the sale of shares and prefunded warrants, each accompanied by four additional warrants, with an exercise price of $0.60 per share. The offering is part of Ontrak’s strategy to enhance its financial position and support its operations in the behavioral healthcare industry.

Private Placements and Financing
Ontrak Amends Note Purchase Agreement with Acuitas
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

On June 27, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. entered into a Seventh Amendment to its Master Note Purchase Agreement with Acuitas Capital LLC and U.S. Bank Trust Company. This amendment allows Acuitas to purchase up to $8.45 million in senior secured convertible promissory notes from Ontrak, with conditions tied to the company’s financial status and market conditions. Additionally, Humanitario Capital, an affiliate of Acuitas, exercised 500,000 pre-funded warrants on June 20, 2025, increasing Acuitas’ ownership to 52% of Ontrak’s common stock, though this was not considered a change of control due to prior ownership levels.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025