Ontrak (OTRKQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $708.00
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 103.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -97.24
• Revenue Growth: -21.03%
• EPS Growth: 47.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 104
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 7,084,537
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 63,585
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 103,209
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.90K
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.23
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $22.12M

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: $0.00 ▼(-100.00% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/23/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/23/25

Ontrak's overall stock score is heavily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues, negative profitability, and high leverage. Technical analysis further indicates a bearish trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages. Valuation metrics are unfavorable due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. These factors collectively suggest significant risks and challenges for the company.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships with health insurers expand Ontrak's market reach and service offerings, potentially driving long-term revenue growth and enhancing competitive positioning in the healthcare technology sector.

AI and Data Analytics

Ontrak's use of AI and data analytics for personalized care management strengthens its business model, offering a competitive advantage in delivering effective healthcare solutions and improving patient outcomes.

Behavioral Health Focus

Focusing on behavioral health positions Ontrak in a growing market segment, as demand for mental health services increases, potentially leading to sustained revenue opportunities.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates potential market challenges and operational inefficiencies, which could hinder growth and profitability if not addressed through strategic adjustments.

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, which may impact long-term financial stability and operational capacity.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow indicates ongoing cash burn and potential liquidity issues, challenging Ontrak's ability to finance operations and invest in growth initiatives sustainably.

Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ontrak, Inc. operates as an artificial intelligence powered, telehealth-enabled, and virtualized healthcare company that provides in-person services to health plans and other third-party payors in the United States. Its technology-enabled platform predicts people whose chronic disease will improve with behavior change, recommends effective care pathways that people are willing to follow, and engages and guides them to and through the care they need. The company's technology-enabled OnTrak program provides healthcare solutions to members with behavioral conditions that cause or exacerbate chronic medical conditions, such as diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and congestive heart failure. The OnTrak integrates evidence-based psychosocial and medical interventions delivered in-person or via telehealth along with care coaching and in-market community care coordinators, who address the social and environmental determinants of health. The company was formerly known as Catasys, Inc. and changed its name to Ontrak, Inc. in July 2020. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Henderson, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

Ontrak generates revenue primarily through contracts with health plans and employers, where it provides its behavioral health intervention programs. The company's revenue model is based on a fee-for-service structure, often incorporating performance-based incentives that align Ontrak's success with improved health outcomes for its clients. Key revenue streams include monthly service fees for each member enrolled in their programs, as well as potential bonuses for achieving specific health metrics. Additionally, Ontrak may benefit from partnerships with insurance providers and healthcare organizations that seek to enhance their behavioral health offerings, thereby expanding its market reach and driving revenue growth.

Ontrak Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ontrak faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability, and high leverage. The company's financial statements suggest a need for strategic adjustments to improve operational efficiency and stabilize its financial position. There are evident risks related to cash flow and debt management, with a pressing need to address profitability issues for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Ontrak's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenue and negative margins. The company has experienced a substantial decrease in revenue from previous years, with a negative revenue growth rate. Gross profit margin is moderately positive, but the net profit margin is deeply negative, indicating a struggle to achieve profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting ongoing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed financial position with high leverage and minimal equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning, indicating potential risks associated with high leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, affecting the equity ratio negatively. The return on equity is negative, further pointing to profitability challenges. On a positive note, the company has maintained some level of cash reserves, although these have declined over time.

Cash Flow

Ontrak's cash flow statement reveals consistent negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, indicating cash burn and potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow growth is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable due to negative cash flow and net income. Financing activities have provided some relief, but the sustainability of such reliance is uncertain.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.85M	12.74M	14.51M	84.13M	82.84M
Gross Profit	6.82M	8.80M	7.05M	52.92M	39.23M
EBITDA	-22.59M	-14.42M	-42.38M	-24.65M	-14.21M
Net Income	-25.49M	-27.92M	-51.57M	-37.14M	-22.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.07M	19.85M	25.76M	93.68M	144.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.71M	9.70M	5.03M	58.82M	86.91M
Total Debt	8.50M	1.69M	11.26M	37.45M	48.73M
Total Liabilities	11.21M	5.58M	20.08M	48.13M	83.95M
Stockholders Equity	9.87M	14.27M	5.68M	45.55M	60.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.61M	-15.78M	-25.12M	-30.64M	-8.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.44M	-15.50M	-23.97M	-26.16M	-6.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-177.00K	-285.00K	-1.16M	-4.48M	-4.64M
Financing Cash Flow	9.62M	15.77M	-31.11M	-6.63M	100.11M

Ontrak Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TDOC	53 Neutral	$961.56M	-6.16	-14.24%	―	-2.37%	77.85%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
DH	47 Neutral	$157.09M	-2.20	-47.69%	―	-5.30%	46.01%
AMWL	46 Neutral	$93.19M	-0.82	-35.88%	―	4.33%	50.50%
OTRKQ	39 Underperform	$708.00	-0.29	―	―	-21.03%	47.41%
VSEE	38 Underperform	$11.68M	-8.71	336.68%	―	187.24%	82.90%