Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $93.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 60.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 101.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 21.60%
• EPS Growth: 35.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 128
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 6,937,358
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 69,709
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 60,667
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.22
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▼(-10.71% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/12/26

The score is primarily held back by weak and potentially inconsistent TTM financial performance, including losses and cash burn, despite stronger annual profitability and low leverage. Technicals are mildly constructive with price above key moving averages and neutral momentum, while valuation is moderate with no dividend support. Corporate events are modestly positive due to the CEO transition and long-term performance-based executive incentives.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet / low leverage

Optex shows structurally low leverage and rising equity, which strengthens financial flexibility. A conservatively financed balance sheet supports bidding on defense contracts, absorbs revenue volatility, and reduces refinancing risk, enabling durable investment in product development and backlog fulfillment.

Multi-year revenue growth and improving annual margins

Revenue expanded year-over-year through 2025 and annual margins materially improved, indicating scalable operations and improving pricing/product mix. Sustained top-line growth with better margins supports reinvestment, competitive positioning, and longer-term margin sustainability if product mix and contract pricing hold.

Experienced defense-focused CEO transition

Appointing a CEO with deep defense industry experience strengthens government relationships, capture capabilities, and program execution credibility. Combined with board-approved performance awards, leadership alignment should improve contract wins and strategic partnerships over the coming years.

Negative Factors

TTM profitability deterioration and data inconsistency

Trailing-twelve-months losses and negative EBITDA contrast with stronger annual results, undermining confidence in earnings quality. Persistent or recurring TTM weakness increases refinancing and execution risk, complicates forecasting for contracts, and could force operational adjustments or external financing.

Uneven and negative cash generation

Irregular operating and free cash flow—including deeply negative TTM free cash flow—limits reinvestment capacity and increases reliance on external capital. For a small defense supplier, constrained cash flow raises vulnerability around working capital needs, bid funding, and timing of program payments.

Margin pressure from legacy loss-making contracts and reserves

Reported margin contraction and loss reserves tied to legacy contracts reveal backlog quality issues. Recovery depends on successful contract roll-off and improved pricing/mix; until then, margin volatility and reserve risk can erode returns and complicate long-term margin planning.

Optex Systems Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial markets in the United States. It offers periscopes, such as laser and non-laser protected plastic and glass periscopes, electronic M17 day/thermal periscopes, and vision blocks; sighting systems, including back up sights, digital day and night sighting systems, M36 thermal periscope, unity mirrors, optical weapon system support and maintenance, and commander weapon station sights; howitzers comprising M137 telescope, M187 mount, M119 aiming device, XM10 and aiming circles; and applied optics center consisting of laser filter units, laser filter interface, optical assemblies, day windows, binoculars, and specialty thin film coatings, as well as other products, such as muzzle reference systems, binoculars, collimators, optical lenses and elements, and windows. The company also provides various periscope configurations, rifle and surveillance sights, and night vision optical assemblies. Its products are installed on various types of U.S. military land vehicles, such as the Abrams, Bradley, and Stryker families of fighting vehicles, as well as light armored and armored security vehicles. The company offers its products directly to the federal government, prime contractors, and foreign governments. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc operates as a subsidiary of Sileas Corporation.

How the Company Makes Money

Optex Systems generates revenue primarily through the sale of its optical sighting systems and related products to government and commercial customers. The company's revenue model is driven by contracts with various branches of the U.S. military, as well as international defense contracts, which often involve long-term agreements and recurring orders for replacement parts and upgrades. Key revenue streams include direct sales of optical systems, government contracts, and potential partnerships with other defense contractors for joint projects. Additionally, Optex may benefit from defense budget allocations and contracts awarded by governmental agencies, which can significantly influence its earnings.

Optex Systems Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Annual results show rising revenue (2022–2025), solid 2025 margins, and low leverage, but the TTM snapshot is a major concern with net loss, negative EBITDA margin, and negative operating/free cash flow. The unusually large TTM scale vs. prior annual figures also adds uncertainty around near-term earnings quality and cash sustainability.

Income Statement

Annual results show solid operating performance and improving scale: revenue rose each year from 2022 to 2025, and profitability strengthened with healthy 2025 annual margins (about 29% gross margin and ~12% net margin). However, the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot is a major red flag, showing a net loss and negative EBITDA margin, and the TTM revenue level looks inconsistent versus the company’s historical annual run-rate—raising data quality and/or volatility concerns. Overall, the annual trend is constructive, but the latest TTM profitability deterioration weighs on confidence.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively financed with low leverage: debt-to-equity is modest in the annual periods (generally well below 0.30) and remains low in the latest readings as well. Equity has also grown over time, supporting resilience. That said, the TTM balance sheet shows unusually large equity and assets versus prior annual reports, which makes comparability questionable and adds uncertainty when assessing true capitalization and scale.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Annual 2025 shows strong operating and free cash flow that broadly aligns with earnings, but prior years include weak or negative operating cash flow (notably 2023) and very thin free cash flow in 2024. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) picture is concerning, with negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow, indicating cash burn and/or heavy investment needs; the relationship between cash flow and earnings is also distorted in TTM due to losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.28M	41.34M	33.99M	25.66M	22.38M	18.22M
Gross Profit	12.02M	12.06M	9.53M	6.62M	4.90M	2.52M
EBITDA	6.84M	7.65M	5.31M	3.13M	1.95M	2.30M
Net Income	4.54M	5.15M	3.77M	2.26M	1.28M	2.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.21M	30.06M	25.52M	22.22M	18.54M	20.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.84M	6.39M	1.01M	1.20M	934.00K	3.90M
Total Debt	1.78M	1.85M	3.40M	3.90M	3.37M	3.66M
Total Liabilities	5.47M	5.76M	6.71M	7.36M	6.13M	5.14M
Stockholders Equity	24.75M	24.29M	18.81M	14.86M	12.41M	15.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-544.05M	6.43M	50.00K	-672.00K	1.78M	207.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-87.87M	6.93M	1.78M	-296.00K	2.04M	481.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-456.19M	-504.00K	-1.73M	-376.00K	-257.00K	-274.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-47.00K	-1.05M	-245.00K	942.00K	-4.75M	-1.01M

Optex Systems Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPXS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.32, above the 50-day MA of 14.10, and above the 200-day MA of 12.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OPXS.

Optex Systems Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
OPXS	60 Neutral	$93.06M	101.30	20.43%	―	21.60%	35.00%
VTSI	55 Neutral	$48.71M	-38.14	-1.26%	―	-23.87%	-109.71%
CVU	50 Neutral	$59.60M	7.22	-2.26%	―	-13.52%	-103.42%
KITT	49 Neutral	$19.92M	-0.42	―	―	95.38%	45.87%
SIDU	46 Neutral	$140.36M	-1.07	-142.81%	―	-30.18%	80.43%
SPAI	39 Underperform	$96.27M	-5.98	-193.70%	―	―	―

Optex Systems Holdings Corporate Events

Optex Systems Announces New Buyback and Mixed Quarterly Results

On February 9, 2026, Optex Systems’ board terminated its existing stock repurchase plan and authorized a new buyback program of up to $10 million of common stock, with purchases to be made opportunistically in the market or through private transactions, giving the defense optics maker additional flexibility in capital allocation. On February 11, 2026, the company reported that for the quarter ended December 28, 2025, revenue rose 11.6% to $9.1 million on strong periscope and XM30 program demand, but gross margin contracted to 22.9% and net income fell to $0.2 million due to gold-driven loss reserves, higher operating costs and CEO transition expenses, even as management signaled expectations for margin recovery and higher revenues later in fiscal 2026 as loss-making legacy contracts roll off and more favorable pricing and product mix take hold.

The most recent analyst rating on (OPXS) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Optex Systems Holdings stock, see the OPXS Stock Forecast page.

Optex Systems Grants Performance-Based Equity Awards to Executives

On December 18, 2025, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc.’s board approved grants of 50,000 performance shares to President and CEO Chad George and 17,500 performance shares to CFO Karen Hawkins under the company’s 2023 Equity Incentive Plan. The awards, each representing a contingent right to one share of common stock, will vest in five equal tranches between December 18, 2025 and September 29, 2030, contingent on the company’s stock achieving specified 30‑day average VWAP price hurdles ranging from $17.54 to $36.37, aligning executive compensation more closely with long-term share price performance and potentially strengthening management’s incentives to drive shareholder value over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (OPXS) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Optex Systems Holdings stock, see the OPXS Stock Forecast page.

Optex Systems Announces CEO Transition to Chad George

On December 4, 2025, Danny Schoening announced his resignation as CEO of Optex Systems Holdings, effective December 20, 2025, but will remain as Chairman of the Board. Chad George, previously the company’s President, will assume the role of CEO, bringing extensive experience from the defense sector, including roles at Leonardo DRS and Raytheon. This leadership transition is expected to strengthen Optex’s position in defense optics and drive future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (OPXS) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Optex Systems Holdings stock, see the OPXS Stock Forecast page.