OPAL Fuels (OPAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $423.08M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 198.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.62
• Revenue Growth: 7.03%
• EPS Growth: -86.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 341
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 28,996,178
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 225,648
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 198,551
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.19
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.65
• 1Y Price Target: $2.95
• Price Target Upside: 8.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $399.28M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(9.89% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet instability and persistently negative free cash flow despite revenue growth and improved net income. Valuation is a key offset with a very low P/E, while the technical setup is generally positive but shows stretched momentum. Earnings-call guidance supports moderate growth and stronger utilization, though commodity (RIN) and demand timing headwinds remain material.

Positive Factors

RNG Production & Top‑line Growth

Sustained production and revenue growth show the business is scaling its core RNG platform. Higher volumes improve operational leverage, support longer‑term contract bargaining power, and underpin the company’s ability to convert project investments into recurring fuel sales and environmental credit generation.

Downstream Fuel Station Expansion

Expanding owned stations diversifies revenue toward downstream, recurring operations and services. This downstream footprint increases customer lock‑in, improves margin mix versus wholesale commodity sales, and provides a durable channel to monetize RNG and environmental attributes over multiple cycles.

Strengthened Liquidity & Capital Access

Meaningful incremental liquidity and committed capital lines reduce execution risk for multi‑year project builds. Access to preferred equity and term capacity supports committed CapEx, enabling the company to fund construction pipelines and hit utilization targets necessary for durable production and EBITDA growth.

Negative Factors

Balance‑Sheet Instability & High Leverage

Volatile equity and elevated leverage constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenants risk. For a capital‑intensive RNG business, unstable capitalization increases the cost of new projects, limits optionality under stress, and can force dilutive or costly funding alternatives over time.

Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow

Chronic negative FCF implies the company must continually raise external capital to fund growth and maintain assets. Poor cash conversion reduces enterprise resilience, heightens dilution/refinancing risk, and can constrain capital allocation flexibility for maintenance, expansion, or shareholder returns over the medium term.

Environmental Credit & Regulatory Exposure

A substantial portion of economics depends on RIN/LCFS credits and pathway eligibility. Credit price swings and regulatory expirations directly compress margins and make earnings volatile. This structural exposure complicates long‑range cash flow visibility and increases sensitivity to policy and commodity cycles.

OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

OPAL Fuels Inc. engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets. It also designs, develops, constructs, operates, and services fueling stations for trucking fleets that use natural gas to displace diesel as transportation fuel. In addition, it offers design, development, and construction services for hydrogen fueling stations. Further, the company generates and sells renewable power to utilities. As of May 1, 2022, it owned and operated 24 biogas projects. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in White Plains, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

OPAL makes money primarily by selling renewable natural gas (RNG) used as a transportation fuel and by earning environmental attribute revenues tied to RNG. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of RNG as a physical commodity: OPAL produces or sources RNG and sells it to customers (often fleets, fuel marketers, or counterparties that serve transportation demand). The price received can reflect natural gas market dynamics and contract terms. (2) Monetization of environmental credits associated with RNG used as transportation fuel: In the U.S., RNG used in transportation can generate Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard and credits under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) when dispensed into transportation. OPAL typically captures value by selling the associated RINs and/or LCFS credits (or by embedding that value in bundled fuel contracts), which can be a significant driver of revenue and margins relative to commodity gas alone. (3) Fueling infrastructure and services: OPAL develops, owns, operates, and/or maintains CNG/RNG fueling stations and related equipment for fleet customers. Revenue can come from fuel dispensed through OPAL-operated stations and from station-related services (e.g., operations and maintenance, station management, and potentially development or upgrade work where applicable). (4) Project development/operations related income: OPAL’s RNG platform involves developing and operating landfill-gas-to-RNG and other biogas upgrading facilities; earnings are influenced by plant uptime, feedstock gas availability, and the terms of contracts with landfill or waste partners that supply biogas and/or host projects. Significant factors affecting earnings include credit price volatility (RIN and LCFS markets), RNG production volumes, the carbon intensity score of RNG pathways (which impacts LCFS credit generation), contract structures (fixed vs index-linked pricing and credit-sharing arrangements), and regulatory policy changes that impact eligibility or credit economics.

OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and a shift from losses to positive net income are positives, but operating profitability is very thin (TTM EBIT margin ~0.6%). Balance-sheet risk is elevated given the recent history of negative equity and erratic/extreme leverage signals, and free cash flow has been consistently negative (TTM about -$34M), limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the period (from $118M in 2020 to $349M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), showing a solid top-line trajectory. Profitability has improved from a net loss in 2020 to positive net income in recent years, but current earnings quality looks modest: TTM net margin is only ~3.4% and operating profitability is thin (TTM EBIT margin ~0.6%) versus stronger levels seen in some prior years. Gross margin is relatively steady (~28–33%), but the big swing in operating metrics across years suggests volatility and limited consistency in converting gross profit into durable operating profit.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows elevated financial risk signals and instability in the equity base. Stockholders’ equity was negative in 2022–2024 before turning positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a meaningful swing in capitalization over time. Leverage indicators are concerning: debt-to-equity is extreme/erratic (including negative values when equity was negative and a very high level in TTM), which points to either high leverage or an equity base that has been unusually volatile. Total assets have grown (to ~$959M TTM), but returns on equity are negative in recent periods, suggesting shareholders are not yet being rewarded for the capital employed.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive in most years and improved to ~$36.5M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which is a constructive sign. However, free cash flow has been consistently negative across all periods (TTM about -$34M), implying ongoing capital intensity and/or heavy reinvestment needs. Cash conversion remains a key weakness: free cash flow is negative relative to net income in every period, and operating cash flow covers only about half of net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating profits are not translating cleanly into cash available to investors.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	348.98M	299.97M	256.11M	235.53M	166.12M
Gross Profit	83.81M	100.12M	72.21M	72.74M	51.06M
EBITDA	28.13M	40.95M	150.74M	53.31M	58.24M
Net Income	4.28M	11.03M	29.95M	11.32M	210.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	959.47M	881.08M	754.61M	644.86M	380.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.41M	24.31M	48.22M	105.37M	39.31M
Total Debt	365.43M	310.56M	210.61M	179.65M	229.10M
Total Liabilities	461.71M	416.05M	297.12M	267.04M	285.89M
Stockholders Equity	497.76M	-148.45M	-478.81M	-800.60M	14.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.24M	-94.21M	-75.56M	-132.76M	-70.79M
Operating Cash Flow	36.50M	33.03M	38.27M	-1.35M	18.86M
Investing Cash Flow	-77.32M	-134.55M	-74.15M	-184.03M	-117.20M
Financing Cash Flow	41.56M	83.50M	5.90M	220.55M	125.01M

OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.15, above the 50-day MA of 2.30, and above the 200-day MA of 2.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OPAL.

OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RGCO	68 Neutral	$222.75M	11.15	11.11%	3.75%	12.63%	10.99%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
NWN	65 Neutral	$2.18B	16.85	7.78%	4.18%	11.27%	20.04%
SPH	65 Neutral	$1.36B	6.81	20.91%	6.97%	7.94%	43.23%
CTRI	61 Neutral	$3.04B	103.12	3.50%	―	―	―
OPAL	58 Neutral	$423.08M	15.50	-40.95%	―	7.03%	-86.15%
NFE	43 Neutral	$327.24M	-0.52	-87.35%	―	-27.23%	-634.60%

OPAL Fuels Corporate Events

OPAL Fuels Secures New Preferred Equity and Debt Financing

On March 6, 2026, OPAL Fuels LLC entered into a subscription agreement with Preferred Fuels LLC, an affiliate of majority shareholder Fortistar, for a preferred equity facility of up to $180 million in Series A preferred units. At the initial closing the investor purchased $120 million of units, with a further $60 million available at OPAL Fuels’ discretion, and the units carry a 12% annual preferred distribution with partial payment-in-kind flexibility.

Roughly $100 million of the initial proceeds were used to fully redeem Series A preferred units previously held by NextEra Energy subsidiary Mendocino Capital, simplifying OPAL Fuels’ capital structure and reallocating ownership toward Fortistar. Remaining proceeds and future draws are earmarked for general corporate purposes and to fund new RNG projects and fueling infrastructure, while amended terms give investors enhanced redemption rights and, if redemptions are not honored, the ability to appoint a director, tightening financial discipline and governance around the preferred capital.

Separately, OPAL Fuels Intermediate HoldCo LLC drew down about $128.4 million under its existing credit and guarantee facility before the delayed draw period expired, using part of the funds to repay approximately $20 million on its revolving loan. The combination of the preferred equity raise and incremental debt draw bolsters the company’s liquidity for project development and balance sheet management, potentially supporting OPAL Fuels’ growth plans in the RNG and clean fuels markets while increasing fixed obligations to preferred holders and lenders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OPAL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OPAL Fuels stock, see the OPAL Stock Forecast page.