Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $501.58M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.03
• Revenue Growth: 675.75%
• EPS Growth: 42.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 242,308,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,702,166
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,793,466
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 28.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -133.77
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 310.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $146.40M

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▲(20.77% Upside)

Gevo's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive strategic initiatives, tempered by significant profitability challenges and valuation concerns. The company's technical indicators and recent corporate events provide some positive momentum, but the financial performance and valuation issues weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Gevo's significant revenue growth reflects strong demand for its renewable products, enhancing its market position and long-term financial prospects.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships in carbon management bolster Gevo's competitive edge in renewable energy, supporting sustainable growth and innovation.

Loan Extension

The loan extension provides Gevo with financial flexibility to explore project modifications, aligning with energy policies and supporting future expansion.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing operational losses highlight challenges in achieving profitability, which may hinder long-term financial stability and growth.

RNG Market Challenges

Difficulties in the RNG market could limit revenue diversification and growth potential, affecting Gevo's overall market strategy.

Cash Flow Issues

Persistent cash flow challenges may restrict Gevo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations effectively.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and chemicals, particularly isobutanol and SAF. The company employs a business model that includes both direct sales to end-users and long-term supply agreements with key partners in the aviation and chemicals sectors. Significant partnerships, such as those with airlines and fuel suppliers, help secure stable revenue streams. Additionally, Gevo explores opportunities for licensing its technologies to other manufacturers, which can provide further income. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy solutions, driving its financial growth.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but negative returns on equity and cash flow issues highlight the need for improved operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Gevo's income statement shows a significant revenue growth of 50.81% in the TTM period, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins of -72.76% and -59.79%, respectively. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 44.25%, but the high operating losses suggest challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -12.04%, highlighting ongoing profitability issues. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets, suggesting a solid capital structure despite operational losses.

Cash Flow

Gevo's cash flow statement reveals negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a concerning free cash flow growth rate of -27.28% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.77, indicating cash flow challenges. Despite these issues, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.63 suggests some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	120.93M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	533.00K	5.54M
Gross Profit	48.61M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-7.15M	-9.47M
EBITDA	-3.95M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.19M
Net Income	-45.15M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-98.01M	-59.20M	-40.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	685.21M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	645.38M	152.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.60M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
Total Debt	167.75M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	69.89M	1.60M
Total Liabilities	210.38M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	98.13M	5.72M
Stockholders Equity	468.87M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.73M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-114.21M	-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.20M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-44.31M	-48.27M	-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-231.99M	-51.82M	114.13M	85.09M	-411.36M	-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	99.70M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	517.32M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, below the 50-day MA of 2.20, and above the 200-day MA of 1.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	78 Outperform	$1.13B	22.85	8.89%	―	-3.10%	-22.31%
SCL	66 Neutral	$1.06B	23.81	3.67%	3.33%	5.35%	-1.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ALTO	59 Neutral	$234.35M	-4.34	-20.64%	―	-8.00%	-35.86%
GPRE	56 Neutral	$689.97M	-3.37	-22.21%	―	-12.07%	-821.68%
GEVO	55 Neutral	$501.58M	-10.76	-9.27%	―	675.75%	42.00%
NTIC	50 Neutral	$71.77M	4,205.56	0.02%	1.33%	-0.97%	-99.67%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Announces Leadership Transition with New President

On December 9, 2025, Gevo, Inc. announced a leadership transition with the retirement of CEO Patrick R. Gruber, effective April 1, 2026, and the immediate appointment of Paul D. Bloom as President and future CEO. Dr. Bloom, who has been with Gevo since 2021, is expected to lead the company into its next phase of growth, focusing on profitability and leveraging technology and intellectual property. Additionally, the Board approved amendments to the company’s bylaws to modernize governance practices, including changes to quorum determination and voting standards.

Gevo Secures $10 Million Tax Credit Agreement

Gevo, Inc. announced two significant tax credit transfer agreements in late 2025. On October 30, 2025, Gevo’s subsidiary entered into an agreement with Stifel Financial Corp. to supply $20 million worth of Clean Fuel Production Credits from ethanol production, with a potential for additional credits in 2026. A similar agreement was made with Capital Community Bancorporation on November 4, 2025, for $10 million in credits. These agreements are expected to enhance Gevo’s financial position and strengthen its market presence in the renewable energy sector.

Gevo Receives Extension for $1.46 Billion Loan

Gevo, Inc. announced that it has received an extension from the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office for its $1.46 billion loan guarantee for the ATJ-60 synthetic aviation fuel project in South Dakota. This extension, granted on October 8, 2025, allows Gevo to explore modifications to the project, including a potential new facility in North Dakota, to better align with energy policies and priorities.