Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $551.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.90
• Revenue Growth: 675.75%
• EPS Growth: 42.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 242,820,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,970,752
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,436,862
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.91
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 112.82
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 274.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $178.66M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▲(10.13% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is held back mainly by weak financial durability—persistent negative free cash flow, still-negative operating profitability, and a balance-sheet data anomaly—despite clear operational improvements. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages, while valuation is a notable risk due to the very high P/E. Earnings-call guidance and sentiment are constructive, but execution and policy/financing dependencies remain meaningful.

Positive Factors

Commercial-scale production and CO2 sequestration

Sustained, record-scale ethanol output and large CO2 sequestration demonstrate operational capability at commercial scale. This underpins durable contract credibility, improves bargaining leverage for offtake and carbon offtake, and supports recurring cash generation potential as volumes and sequestration stabilize.

Material improvement in revenue and adjusted EBITDA

A strong step-up in revenue and consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, plus positive fourth-quarter operating cash flow, signal improving unit economics and margin sustainability. These durable improvements reduce near-term financing pressure and increase the likelihood of reaching sustained cash neutrality.

High-impact ATJ-30 project and growth strategy

A modular 30M-gallon ATJ project with substantial contracted output offers a transformational, scalable earnings lever. If financed and executed, it materially shifts long-term cash generation and supports a franchise/capital-light roll-out model, creating structural upside to margins and scale.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow means the business has not yet become self-funding. Even with improvement, ongoing cash burn requires external financing for capex and project development, elevating refinancing and dilution risk and constraining durable financial flexibility.

Dependence on policy, credits and project financing

Material reliance on tax credits, carbon-market pricing and conditional loan guarantees creates structural execution risk. Changes in policy, GREET assumptions, or delays in loan support can materially alter project economics and the timing of cash flows, hindering predictable scaling.

Limited scale of advanced/cellulosic fuels today

Advanced fuels and cellulosic output remain a small fraction of production, limiting current carbon-intensity improvement and premium capture. Scaling these technologies requires further optimization and capital, so near-term margins and CI-driven pricing power remain constrained until scale-up is achieved.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo’s business model has historically been centered on (1) technology and intellectual-property commercialization and (2) developing, contracting, and potentially operating low-carbon fuel production capacity (notably SAF). Revenue and cash generation can come from multiple sources: (a) product and byproduct sales—if and when Gevo produces fuels/chemicals at commercial scale, it can sell finished fuels (e.g., SAF) and potentially other co-products into end markets; (b) low-carbon attributes associated with production—depending on the jurisdiction and program rules, economic value may be realized from environmental attributes tied to low-carbon fuels (e.g., credits or similar instruments), either embedded in contracted pricing or monetized separately; specific program participation details not available: null; (c) licensing and related technology revenues—Gevo has pursued monetization of its processes via licenses, royalties, and/or engineering and development arrangements with partners; specific active licensing partners/royalty rates not available: null; (d) offtake and development contracts—Gevo has pursued long-term offtake arrangements and other commercial agreements for future SAF supply; these can support project financing and may produce revenue if structured to include payments tied to development milestones or other terms; whether Gevo recognizes material revenue from such arrangements in a given period is not available: null. Overall, the company’s earnings potential is driven by its ability to finance and build production assets, secure long-term customer offtake (often with airlines, fuel distributors, or corporate buyers seeking to lower emissions), and capture pricing that reflects both the base fuel value and any applicable low-carbon premiums/attributes; named partnerships and their direct contribution to earnings not available: null.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving with higher revenue and a shift to modest net profitability in the latest period, plus very low reported leverage. However, EBIT remains negative, multi‑year profitability has been weak, and cash flow is still consistently negative (ongoing cash burn). The reported negative total assets figure is also a major anomaly that reduces confidence in balance-sheet trend interpretation.

Income Statement

The latest annual period shows a sharp step-up in revenue (+32.8% YoY) and a swing to modest net profitability (net margin ~0.8%), supported by positive EBITDA margin (~3.2%). However, operating profitability remains weak with EBIT still negative, and the prior three years show heavy losses and deeply negative margins, indicating earnings quality and sustainability are not yet proven.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears low in the most recent annual period (debt-to-equity ~0.6%) and equity remains sizable, which reduces near-term balance sheet risk. That said, return on equity is only slightly positive (~0.3%) after several years of meaningfully negative returns, and the latest total assets figure is negative, which is a major data anomaly that adds uncertainty and tempers confidence in balance-sheet trend interpretation.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a key weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in every year provided, including the latest period (both about -$13.4M). While the cash burn improved materially versus the prior year (free cash flow growth strongly positive), the company is still not self-funding operations, which can keep pressure on liquidity and future financing needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	160.58M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	533.00K
Gross Profit	48.54M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-7.15M
EBITDA	6.46M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M
Net Income	-33.84M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-98.01M	-59.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	718.93M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	645.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.09M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M
Total Debt	167.52M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	69.89M
Total Liabilities	247.76M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	98.13M
Stockholders Equity	466.34M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-43.51M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-114.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.40M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-44.31M	-48.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-221.57M	-51.82M	114.13M	85.09M	-411.36M
Financing Cash Flow	92.88M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	517.32M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.10, above the 50-day MA of 2.01, and above the 200-day MA of 1.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	78 Outperform	$1.28B	11.38	9.11%	―	-3.10%	-22.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SCL	61 Neutral	$1.01B	23.10	3.80%	3.33%	5.35%	-1.43%
ALTO	60 Neutral	$321.54M	16.09	6.00%	―	-8.00%	-35.86%
GPRE	58 Neutral	$1.08B	-5.45	-15.81%	―	-12.07%	-821.68%
NTIC	57 Neutral	$80.30M	73.75	0.02%	1.33%	-0.97%	-99.67%
GEVO	53 Neutral	$551.20M	-19.47	0.26%	―	675.75%	42.00%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Announces Upcoming Board Change as Director Steps Down

On March 11, 2026, Gevo, Inc. announced that board member Angelo Amorelli has informed the company he will not stand for re-election at Gevo’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. He will remain on the board until his current term expires at the meeting, with the company emphasizing that his departure is due to personal reasons and not any disagreement over Gevo’s operations, policies, or practices.

The board and the company publicly thanked Dr. Amorelli for his dedicated service and contributions during his tenure, signaling an orderly and amicable transition in board composition. The move suggests continuity in Gevo’s strategic direction and governance, with no immediate indication of internal conflict or changes in the company’s operational focus stemming from his decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Refinances Debt and Expands North Dakota Credit Facilities

On February 6, 2026, Gevo completed a refinancing transaction with Orion Infrastructure Capital that consolidated its North Dakota term debt with debt from its renewable natural gas subsidiary into a $175 million loan facility and enabled the redemption of about $68 million of RNG-related bonds. The company freed approximately $35.8 million in previously restricted cash, satisfied and discharged all obligations under the redeemed bonds, and simplified its capital structure without materially changing total debt or incurring ongoing bond-related administrative costs.

As part of the same financing package on February 6, 2026, Gevo’s subsidiaries entered a new $70 million incremental loan commitment under an amended credit agreement and secured the loans with first-lien interests in their assets. The company also closed a separate revolving working capital facility of up to $20 million with Huntington National Bank to support low-carbon ethanol operations in North Dakota, backed by a borrowing base of receivables and inventory and subject to customary covenants and coverage ratios.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Announces Leadership Succession and Executive Compensation Changes

On January 5, 2026, Gevo announced a series of leadership and compensation changes as part of its ongoing growth and succession planning, highlighting both operational renewal and executive retention. Long-time chief operating officer and president Christopher M. Ryan notified the company of his intention to retire effective on or about June 5, 2026, and agricultural industry veteran Greg Hanselman was hired the same day as executive vice president of operations and engineering, with the expectation that he will assume the COO role upon Ryan’s retirement. Gevo also put in place new employment agreements for president Paul Bloom and chief financial officer Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri, effective January 1, 2026, confirming Bloom’s path to succeed Patrick R. Gruber as chief executive officer around April 1, 2026 and setting detailed terms for salary, bonuses, severance protections, non-compete obligations, and equity-based incentives. These arrangements, which include tailored change-in-control protection, extended vesting of equity awards following qualifying departures, and specific retirement-transition provisions for Bloom, underscore Gevo’s efforts to ensure leadership stability and operational continuity as it scales its renewable fuels and carbon management platform, while also tightening post-employment restrictions in exchange for stock grants and non-compete payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.