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Aemetis (AMTX)
NASDAQ:AMTX
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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
39Underperform
Positive Factors
India Operations
The company is continuing to deliver on its India operations with delivery of $103M of biodiesel to the three government-owned Oil Marketing Companies and receiving an initial $58M of new allocations for biodiesel supply.
Tax Credits
IRS tax credit approval underpins an important aspect of the company's future expected cash flow associated with the RNG business.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Aemetis recently reported its fiscal Q2 2024 results with lower than expected revenue and EPS, indicating challenges in meeting financial targets.
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$85.94M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)722.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.42
Revenue Growth59.51%
EPS Growth-80.53%
CountryUS
Employees205
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength73
IndustryFossil Fuels
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.26
Shares Outstanding51,152,603
10 Day Avg. Volume678,108
30 Day Avg. Volume722,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-4.20
P/FCF Ratio26.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.50Price Target Upside822.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAemetis, Inc. (AMTX) is a renewable fuels and biochemical company based in Cupertino, California. The company operates within the energy and chemicals sectors, focusing on the production of renewable fuels and chemicals through the conversion of renewable feedstocks. Its core products include ethanol, biodiesel, and other renewable chemicals, catering to both domestic and international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyAemetis generates revenue primarily through the sale of renewable fuels and chemicals. The company's revenue model hinges on the production and sale of ethanol and biodiesel, which are sold to distributors and customers in the transportation and industrial sectors. Key revenue streams include the sale of low-carbon renewable fuels, which are often supported by government mandates and incentives promoting sustainable energy. Aemetis also benefits from the sale of byproducts generated during the production process, such as wet distillers grains. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include partnerships with government bodies and compliance with environmental regulations that support the use of biofuels, as well as strategic acquisitions and expansions to increase production capacity.
Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aemetis faces significant financial challenges characterized by consistent losses and high leverage. While there are slight improvements in revenue and operating cash flow, the overall financial health is undermined by negative equity and substantial debt. The company needs strategic interventions to enhance profitability and strengthen its balance sheet.Income Statement
Aemetis shows a consistent pattern of declining profitability with negative net income and EBIT across the years. The TTM data also indicates negative gross profit margins and deteriorating EBITDA margins. Revenue growth is volatile, with recent improvements, but profitability remains a significant concern.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity and a substantial increase in total debt. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability and high risk.30
Negative
Cash Flow
While operating cash flow is positive in the TTM, free cash flow remains negative due to high capital expenditures. The cash flow to net income ratios are challenging to assess given the persistent negative net income, indicating potential cash flow management issues.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 291.40M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M | 165.56M | 202.00M | Gross Profit |
| 2.32M | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M | 11.03M | 12.70M | EBIT |
| -35.90M | -37.40M | -34.40M | -19.75M | -6.07M | -4.93M | EBITDA |
| -29.91M | -34.84M | -62.17M | -15.82M | -6.07M | -5.26M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -96.78M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M | -36.66M | -39.48M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.19M | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M | 592.00K | 656.00K | Total Assets |
| 91.82M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M | 125.14M | 99.90M | Total Debt |
| 17.30M | 417.34M | 248.43M | 22.78M | 59.52M | 22.74M | Net Debt |
| 16.11M | 414.38M | 244.12M | 15.03M | 58.92M | 22.08M | Total Liabilities |
| 197.40M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M | 309.88M | 254.27M | Stockholders Equity |
| -100.84M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M | -184.74M | -154.37M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -14.38M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M | -16.86M | -10.61M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 13.61M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M | 2.48M | -2.03M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -23.20M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M | -17.31M | -8.58M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 5.29M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M | 14.78M | 10.09M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Negative
1.68
Price Trends
2.26
Negative
2.77
Negative
2.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
31.59
Neutral
26.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.87, below the 50-day MA of 2.26, and below the 200-day MA of 2.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.47B | 12.98 | 8.61% | 1.77% | -23.68% | 11.84% | |
64 Neutral | $289.68M | ― | -14.78% | ― | 16.59% | -7.74% | |
60 Neutral | $24.28B | 13.54 | 7.78% | 3.97% | -9.01% | -43.53% | |
58 Neutral | $320.45M | 222.17 | 0.51% | ― | -10.30% | -93.51% | |
57 Neutral | $8.36B | 5.49 | -6.03% | 7.47% | 0.03% | -68.64% | |
45 Neutral | $331.41M | ― | -9.65% | ― | -25.69% | 18.54% | |
39 Underperform | $85.94M | ― | 37.38% | ― | 59.51% | -80.53% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMTX
Aemetis
1.68
-1.62
-49.09%
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
48.64
-7.50
-13.36%
GEVO
Gevo
1.21
0.53
77.94%
GPRE
Green Plains
5.12
-15.19
-74.79%
ANDE
The Andersons
42.33
-11.28
-21.04%
BIOX
Bioceres Crop Solutions
5.22
-7.71
-59.63%
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -0.59% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments and challenges. Significant revenue growth and improvements in gross profit and operating loss highlight operational progress. However, increased interest expenses, a net income decline, and low cash reserves present financial challenges. Regulatory uncertainties regarding the 45Z tax credit and LCFS approval delays add complexity to future projections.Highlights
Revenue Growth
Revenue during the third quarter 2024 increased to $81.4 million compared to $68.7 million for the third quarter of 2023.
Improved Gross Profit
Gross profit for the third quarter of 2024 was $3.9 million compared to $492,000 profit during the third quarter of 2023.
Reduction in Operating Loss
Operating loss improved to $3.9 million for the third quarter of 2024 compared to an operating loss of $8.5 million for the same period of 2023.
LCFS Credit Price Increase
The price of LCFS credits has increased from $44 to $74 in recent months, with further expectations of $82 by late 2025.
RNG Production Growth
The renewable natural gas business is expected to produce more than 500,000 MMBtus per year by the end of 2024, with projections of 1 million MMBtus by the end of 2025.
India Biodiesel Business Success
Completed deliveries of $112 million during the 1-year period ending September 2024, with positive EBITDA and continued growth expectations.
USDA Loan Approvals
USDA has $75 million of Aemetis Biogas loan applications in process, expecting a closing of $25 million this quarter and additional $50 million in Q1 2025.
Lowlights
Increased Interest Expense
Interest expense increased to $11.7 million during the third quarter of 2024 compared to $10.2 million during the third quarter of 2023.
Decline in Net Income
Net loss was $17.9 million for the third quarter of 2024 compared to net income of $30.7 million for the third quarter of 2023, primarily driven by a sale of investment tax credits in September 2023.
Low Cash Position
Cash at the end of the third quarter 2024 was $296,000 compared to $2.7 million at the close of the fourth quarter of 2023.
Delay in LCFS Pathway Approval
The approval of the LCFS pathway is delayed by 1 quarter from previous expectations, potentially impacting revenue timing.
Uncertainty in 45Z Production Tax Credit
Realization of the 45Z production tax credit is dependent on IRS guidance, with no clear indication of timing from the current administration.
Company Guidance
During the Aemetis Q3 2024 earnings call, the company outlined several key metrics and future guidance. Revenue increased to $81.4 million from $68.7 million in Q3 2023, with the Keyes plant generating $45 million through the production of 15.5 million gallons of ethanol. The Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segment sold 85,993 MMBtus, generating $4.2 million. India's biodiesel operations contributed $32.2 million. Gross profit rose to $3.9 million, and operating loss improved to $3.9 million from $8.5 million in 2023. Interest expenses increased to $11.7 million, while net loss was $17.9 million, compared to $30.7 million net income in 2023. The call highlighted plans to increase renewable natural gas production to 1 million MMBtus by the end of 2025, and anticipated significant revenue expansion driven by new regulatory developments and tax credits, with projections including $20 million in RNG revenue by 2025 under a $100 LCFS price scenario.Aemetis Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Aemetis Adjusts Executive Compensation and Bonuses
Neutral
Jan 23, 2025
On January 16, 2025, Aemetis, Inc.’s Governance, Compensation, and Nominating Committee held a meeting to assess executive compensation. The Committee reviewed the company’s performance and benchmarked executive pay against peers, resulting in adjustments to base salaries and approval of one-time bonuses for key executives, potentially impacting employee satisfaction and retention.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.