Aemetis (AMTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $175.91M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 997.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.12
• Revenue Growth: -30.91%
• EPS Growth: 29.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 223
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 66,631,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,825,084
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 997,291
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -635.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -17.66
• 1Y Price Target: $28.00
• Price Target Upside: 921.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $435.90M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-8.76% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative equity, and negative free cash flow). Technicals are strong but overextended, adding volatility risk. Earnings call commentary provides a moderate offset via credible, financed operational catalysts and improving quarterly trends, while valuation remains constrained by losses and corporate events are mixed with notable financing risk.

Positive Factors

Dairy RNG profitability & growth

A profitable, fast-growing RNG segment provides a durable cash-generating engine less tied to ethanol commodity cycles. Scaled digesters and rising production create recurring revenue and margin diversification, improving structural cash flow as the company expands contracted build-outs.

MVR project—material operating savings

A fully financed MVR that materially reduces fuel input costs and carbon intensity is a durable margin lever. It lowers OPEX, enhances plant competitiveness, and increases eligibility/value capture from LCFS/45Z credits, translating to sustained EBITDA uplift once operational.

Secured long-term financings & contracted work

Long-term, asset-aligned financings and fully contracted capital works reduce execution and refinancing risk for growth projects. Matching financing terms to asset lives supports predictable debt service and enables steady capacity expansion without immediate equity dilution.

Negative Factors

Negative shareholders' equity

Sustained negative equity signals deep capital impairment and limits financial flexibility. It raises refinancing risk, can trigger covenant/guarantee stress, and increases the likelihood of dilutive recapitalization or expensive secured financing, impairing long-term solvency.

Persistent negative free cash flow

Large negative free cash flow after investments indicates ongoing cash burn and reliance on external financing to fund capex. This constrains the company’s ability to self-fund growth, increases sensitivity to credit markets, and raises execution risk for multi-year build-outs.

High-cost preferred redemption risk

The preferred units amendment creates a cliff where failure to redeem forces high-cost secured borrowing and parent guarantees, enlarging collateral claims and interest burden. This materially elevates near-term liquidity and balance-sheet strain and can constrain operational flexibility.

Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India. It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products. It sells biodiesel primarily to government oil marketing companies, transport companies, resellers, distributors, and private refiners through its own sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users. The company also produces and sells ethanol; and wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed. In addition, it produces dairy biogas; produces and sells high-grade alcohol and various feed products, as well as hand sanitizers; and researches and develops conversion technologies using waste feedstocks to produce biofuels and biochemicals. The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc. and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc. in November 2011. Aemetis, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Aemetis primarily makes money by producing and selling renewable fuels and related co-products from its operating facilities. A key revenue stream is the sale of ethanol (a biofuel blended into gasoline) into domestic and export markets, typically priced off industry benchmarks and influenced by commodity market conditions and end-market demand. The company also generates revenue from co-products produced alongside ethanol (e.g., feed-related co-products and other process outputs) that are sold into applicable industrial or agricultural channels. In addition, Aemetis’ earnings can be significantly influenced by participation in low-carbon and renewable fuel credit programs tied to fuel carbon intensity and blending mandates (for example, where available, credits associated with renewable fuel standards and low-carbon fuel programs); these credits can be generated through qualifying production and then sold or used for compliance, creating an additional, sometimes material, revenue and margin component. The company also pursues revenue opportunities through development and commercialization of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel pathways and other biochemicals; however, if specific project-level commercialization status, volumes, or named counterparties are not publicly available in the provided context, those details are null.

Aemetis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate severe stress: sharp TTM revenue contraction with deeply negative margins and a large net loss; balance sheet shows persistent negative equity (~-$307M TTM) with heavy debt (~$318M) implying elevated solvency/refinancing risk; cash flow is mixed with modest positive TTM operating cash flow (~$3.3M) but materially negative free cash flow (~-$22.7M), signaling ongoing cash burn.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp revenue contraction (down ~184% vs. prior period) alongside persistently negative profitability. Gross margin is slightly negative, and operating profitability remains deeply pressured (EBIT margin ~-19% and EBITDA margin ~-14%), culminating in a large net loss (net margin ~-39%). While losses were already structural in prior annual periods, the latest TTM deterioration in revenue and margins signals weak operating leverage and elevated execution/market risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is highly stressed: shareholders’ equity is negative across all periods, including TTM (about -$307M), which limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing risk. Total debt remains very large (~$318M TTM) relative to the asset base (~$260M), and negative equity makes leverage metrics less meaningful but directionally underscores heavy balance-sheet burden. Overall, the capital structure suggests elevated solvency risk without a clear path to recapitalization visible in the provided data.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed and volatile. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~$3.3M), an improvement versus the prior annual period’s negative operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains materially negative (~-$22.7M), indicating ongoing cash burn after investment needs. Free cash flow also deteriorated sharply versus the prior period (large negative growth), suggesting liquidity pressure persists even with the recent operating cash flow uptick.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	207.98M	267.64M	186.72M	256.51M	211.95M
Gross Profit	-768.00K	-580.00K	2.02M	-5.54M	7.94M
EBITDA	-27.64M	-49.82M	-34.84M	-79.72M	-21.64M
Net Income	-77.00M	-87.54M	-46.42M	-107.76M	-47.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	259.84M	259.30M	243.41M	207.11M	160.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.89M	898.00K	2.67M	4.31M	7.75M
Total Debt	317.87M	338.06M	296.91M	248.77M	191.34M
Total Liabilities	566.67M	523.23M	460.38M	408.97M	281.07M
Stockholders Equity	-306.83M	-263.93M	-216.98M	-201.85M	-120.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-22.74M	-53.18M	-19.29M	-62.02M	-47.30M
Operating Cash Flow	3.26M	-32.93M	13.82M	-22.87M	-20.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.59M	-14.15M	-23.69M	-31.31M	-22.89M
Financing Cash Flow	26.41M	44.62M	9.09M	53.63M	50.70M

Aemetis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.68, above the 50-day MA of 1.62, and above the 200-day MA of 2.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.65 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMTX.

Aemetis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	68 Neutral	$13.78B	13.57	7.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
SGU	67 Neutral	$414.28M	2.76	19.81%	6.14%	1.04%	111.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PBF	57 Neutral	$5.48B	-19.51	-3.05%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CLNE	55 Neutral	$465.19M	-2.09	-38.08%	―	2.59%	-192.73%
AMTX	49 Neutral	$175.91M	-4.29	26.07%	―	-30.91%	29.09%
CAPL	49 Neutral	$835.54M	19.25	-67.36%	10.09%	-10.27%	131.17%

Aemetis Corporate Events

Aemetis Expands Authorized Shares to Bolster Capital Flexibility

On February 18, 2026, Aemetis filed an amendment to its Certificate of Incorporation in Delaware to increase its total authorized capital stock from 145 million to 205 million shares, reflecting a boost in authorized common stock from 80 million to 140 million shares. As of February 16, 2026, Aemetis had 66,359,776 common shares outstanding and no preferred shares issued, while its capital structure and anti-takeover provisions continue to give the board flexibility in issuing preferred stock and managing control changes.

At a special shareholder meeting on February 18, 2026, investors approved the increase in authorized common stock but did not approve a proposed cut in authorized preferred stock from 65 million to 5 million shares. The company also updated its public description of capital stock and delivered a legal opinion supporting the potential sale of up to $210 million in common shares under an existing at-the-market program, signaling readiness to tap equity markets and potentially diluting existing shareholders over time while strengthening its capital-raising capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.

Aemetis Amends Biogas Preferred Units Redemption Agreement

On February 4, 2026, Aemetis Biogas LLC, a subsidiary of Aemetis, Inc., agreed with Protair-X Technologies and Third Eye Capital to amend its Series A Preferred Unit Purchase Agreement, retroactive to December 31, 2025, extending the deadline to redeem all outstanding Series A Preferred Units from December 31, 2025 to April 30, 2026 and resetting the aggregate redemption price to $114.7 million, reflecting prior payments and a $2 million amendment fee. If ABGL does not complete the redemption by the new deadline, it must enter into a secured credit agreement effective May 1, 2026, maturing May 1, 2027, bearing interest at the greater of 16% or prime plus 10%, and guaranteed by Aemetis, Inc. and several subsidiaries with a security interest over their assets, underscoring both the high-cost nature of the financing and the increased balance-sheet and collateral commitments required to maintain capital support from its investor.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.

Aemetis Authorizes Major Share Repurchase and Executive Bonuses

On January 22, 2026, Aemetis’ board committee approved an annual $350,000 guarantee fee to McAfee Capital LLC, wholly owned by Chairman and CEO Eric A. McAfee, as compensation for personal guarantees backing certain of the company’s credit facilities and debt obligations, continuing the firm’s historical practice of such payments. On the same date, the committee granted discretionary cash bonuses to several top executives, including $200,000 to McAfee and amounts ranging from $50,000 to $125,000 for other senior officers, and the board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $80 million of common stock, signaling a capital allocation move that could support the stock price and adjust the company’s capital structure, while shareholders prepare to vote at a special meeting on proposed amendments to the company’s charter to reallocate authorized preferred and common shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Sell with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.