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Aemetis (AMTX)
NASDAQ:AMTX
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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
40Underperform
Positive Factors
Biodiesel Business Monetization
The company is getting closer to monetizing its India biodiesel business via an IPO, which could materially improve the company's balance sheet profile.
Growth Potential
Aemetis has a strong 5-year financial plan aiming to reach $1 billion in revenue by 2026, indicating confidence in significant growth potential.
Investment Support
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services approved $200 million of EB-5 program investment for Aemetis's sustainable projects, which supports future growth.
Negative Factors
Price Target Adjustment
Maintaining a BUY rating, but lowering the 12-month price target, representing significant upside from current share price.
Revenue Performance
Aemetis reported its fiscal Q4 2024 revenue at $47 million, which was significantly lower than the previous year and below both analyst estimates and consensus expectations.
Tax Credit Uncertainty
Realizing Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) 45Z Production Tax Credits (PTC) in 2025 is partly dependent on the IRS releasing the calculation guideline for RNG, with limited clarity on the timeline.
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$85.58M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)867.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.84
Revenue Growth43.34%
EPS Growth-56.81%
CountryUS
Employees223
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength44
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.97
Shares Outstanding53,319,340
10 Day Avg. Volume826,564
30 Day Avg. Volume867,271
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-2.10
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.33Price Target Upside920.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India. It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products. It sells biodiesel primarily to government oil marketing companies, transport companies, resellers, distributors, and private refiners through its own sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users. The company also produces and sells ethanol; and wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed. In addition, it produces dairy biogas; produces and sells high-grade alcohol and various feed products, as well as hand sanitizers; and researches and develops conversion technologies using waste feedstocks to produce biofuels and biochemicals. The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc. and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc. in November 2011. Aemetis, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAemetis generates revenue primarily through the sale of renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, which are produced at its biorefineries and sold to industries that require cleaner energy solutions. The company's revenue streams include the sale of ethanol produced at its Keyes, California plant, and biodiesel produced in its India facility. Additionally, Aemetis earns from the production and sale of renewable natural gas and other biochemicals. The company benefits from government incentives, such as tax credits and renewable fuel standards that mandate the blending of renewable fuels with fossil fuels. Aemetis's strategic partnerships and collaborations with technology developers and industrial firms also enhance its ability to commercialize innovative fuel solutions, thus contributing to its earnings.
Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aemetis is facing significant financial challenges. The company shows volatile revenue trends with substantial losses across income, balance sheet, and cash flow statements. Despite revenue growth, the negative profit margins, high leverage, and negative equity reflect financial instability and operational inefficiencies.Income Statement
Aemetis exhibits volatile revenue trends with a recent revenue growth of 43.4% from 2023 to 2024, yet it has a history of fluctuating revenues. The gross profit margin is negative at -0.22%, indicating challenges in covering production costs, while net profit margins are deeply negative at -32.7%, reflecting significant losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting ongoing operational inefficiencies.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows significant weaknesses, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$119.96 million, reflecting a highly leveraged position. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, indicating financial instability. The equity ratio is also negative, further emphasizing the lack of financial robustness and high risk of insolvency.25
Negative
Cash Flow
Aemetis has negative free cash flow, though it improved slightly from 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showing that the company struggles to convert sales into cash. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain some level of financing activities to offset cash deficits.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 267.64M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M | 165.56M | Gross Profit |
| -580.00K | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M | 11.03M | EBIT |
| -40.42M | -37.40M | -34.40M | -19.75M | -6.07M | EBITDA |
| -37.13M | -34.84M | -62.17M | -15.82M | -6.07M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -87.54M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M | -36.66M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 898.00K | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M | 592.00K | Total Assets |
| 259.30M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M | 125.14M | Total Debt |
| 233.57M | 417.34M | 248.43M | 22.78M | 59.52M | Net Debt |
| 232.67M | 414.38M | 244.12M | 15.03M | 58.92M | Total Liabilities |
| 379.26M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M | 309.88M | Stockholders Equity |
| -119.96M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M | -184.74M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -53.18M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M | -16.86M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -32.93M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M | 2.48M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -14.15M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M | -17.31M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 44.62M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M | 14.78M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Negative
1.60
Price Trends
1.87
Negative
2.46
Negative
2.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
39.50
Neutral
10.77
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.81, below the 50-day MA of 1.87, and below the 200-day MA of 2.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.29B | 11.40 | 8.61% | 2.02% | -23.68% | 11.84% | |
60 Neutral | $22.01B | 12.56 | 7.78% | 4.38% | -9.01% | -43.53% | |
58 Neutral | $273.42M | 189.57 | 0.51% | ― | -10.30% | -93.51% | |
57 Neutral | $7.56B | 4.34 | -4.83% | 6.50% | -0.19% | -64.60% | |
45 Neutral | $244.68M | ― | -9.65% | ― | -25.69% | 18.54% | |
40 Underperform | $85.58M | ― | 37.38% | ― | 43.34% | -56.81% | |
39 Underperform | $261.17M | ― | -15.02% | ― | -1.66% | -18.31% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMTX
Aemetis
1.60
-2.48
-60.78%
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
45.84
-12.47
-21.39%
GEVO
Gevo
1.14
0.52
83.87%
GPRE
Green Plains
3.78
-17.15
-81.94%
ANDE
The Andersons
37.86
-18.55
-32.88%
BIOX
Bioceres Crop Solutions
4.36
-8.14
-65.12%
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -9.60% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, federal and state policy support, and expansion plans in biogas and biofuels. However, it also reported increased net losses, higher interest expenses, and delays in regulatory implementations, indicating a balanced outlook.Highlights
Significant Revenue Growth
Revenues increased to $268 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $187 million in 2023, driven by increases across all segments.
California LCFS Credits Approval
Amendments to California's low carbon fuel standard were approved, setting twenty years of increasing mandates for low carbon fuels with anticipated higher LCFS credit prices.
Federal and State Policy Support
Supportive federal and state policies for renewable fuels, including E15 ethanol blend approvals and production and investment tax credits, are expected to positively impact business growth.
Aemetis Biogas Expansion
Plans to expand to 26 dairies by 2025, with a goal of reaching one million MMBtu per year in 2026, supported by USDA guaranteed financing.
India Biofuels Business Performance
Delivered $112 million in biodiesel sales over one year, with expectations of continued government support for biodiesel blending.
Lowlights
Increased Net Loss
Net loss for the twelve months was $87.5 million, compared to a net loss of $46.4 million in 2023.
Interest Expense Increase
Interest expense increased by $5.5 million to $59.3 million during the year ended December 31, 2024.
Operating Loss
Operating loss was $40.4 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024.
Cash Decrease
Cash at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024 was $898,000 compared to $2.7 million on December 31, 2023.
Unexpected Delay in LCFS Implementation
The implementation of the amended LCFS was delayed, causing a 30% decrease in LCFS credit prices.
Company Guidance
In the Aemetis fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings call, the company reported a significant increase in revenues to $268 million, up from $187 million in 2023, with notable contributions from California ethanol, India biodiesel, and California renewable natural gas segments. Despite this revenue growth, Aemetis faced a net loss of $87.5 million for the year, compared to a net loss of $46.4 million in the previous year. The company's gross loss was $580,000, and its operating loss stood at $40.4 million, with an interest expense of $59.3 million. Capital expenditures were $20.3 million, and cash reserves decreased to $898,000 from $2.7 million at the end of 2023. Aemetis anticipates future growth driven by government policies, including the California LCFS amendments and federal RFS and tax credits, which aim to bolster the renewable fuels market and create new investment opportunities.Aemetis Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Aemetis Adjusts Executive Compensation and Bonuses
Neutral
Jan 23, 2025
On January 16, 2025, Aemetis, Inc.’s Governance, Compensation, and Nominating Committee held a meeting to assess executive compensation. The Committee reviewed the company’s performance and benchmarked executive pay against peers, resulting in adjustments to base salaries and approval of one-time bonuses for key executives, potentially impacting employee satisfaction and retention.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.