Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.57B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 8.04%
• EPS Growth: 10.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 3.23
• Shares Outstanding: 61,251,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,427,712
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,500,119
• PEG Ratio: 3.09
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.91
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -375.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $125.29
• Price Target Upside: 16.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding receives a solid overall stock score of 76.4, driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook. The financial stability and strategic growth plans offset the slightly high valuation and neutral technical signals. Leadership changes further support future growth potential.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

OLLI had a high-quality quarter, surpassing most metrics and experiencing less impact from Big Lots liquidations than expected.

Store Expansion and Market Share

OLLI's accelerated new store expansion and the benefit from Big Lots store closures are driving positive stock performance.

Negative Factors

Consumer Demand and Market Conditions

Possible execution risk, inconsistent closeout deal flow, and soft consumer demand for discretionary spending could limit top-line/EBIT margin expansion.

Guidance and Expectations

Initial '25 guidance came in below street expectations, indicating potential caution from management.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) is a leading American retailer specializing in offering brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company operates in the discount retail sector, focusing on a variety of product categories including housewares, food, books, electronics, toys, and seasonal items. Established in 1982, Ollie's maintains a large network of stores across the United States, where it delivers a treasure hunt shopping experience by stocking excess inventory, overstocks, and closeouts from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie's Bargain Outlet generates revenue through the sale of discounted merchandise across its chain of retail stores. The company's revenue model hinges on purchasing excess and overstocked goods from suppliers at low prices and passing the savings on to customers. This approach enables Ollie's to offer significant discounts on a wide range of products, which attracts cost-conscious consumers looking for value. Additionally, Ollie's optimizes its earnings by maintaining tight cost controls and leveraging economies of scale. The company's ability to source products opportunistically and its reputation for offering 'Good Stuff Cheap' are key factors driving its financial performance.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding demonstrates strong financial health across income, balance sheet, and cash flow perspectives. The company shows robust revenue and profit growth, stable leverage, and efficient cash flow management. These factors collectively indicate a solid financial foundation, positioning the company well for continued success in the Retailers - Staples industry.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows strong growth with a revenue increase of 8.05% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to the previous year. Gross Profit Margin is 39.91%, and Net Profit Margin stands at 8.79%, reflecting efficient cost control. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 11.10% and 13.44%, respectively, indicating solid profitability. The consistent revenue and profit growth trends demonstrate effective business operations and market presence.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.33, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 11.78%, indicating good profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is 66.19%, showing a strong reliance on equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with moderate leverage and healthy equity levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statements indicate a positive trajectory with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 24.76% in TTM, showcasing effective capital management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.14, reflecting strong cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.81, demonstrating efficient translation of profits into free cash flow. Overall, cash flows are strong and supportive of future growth.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.27B	2.10B	1.83B	1.75B	1.81B
	Gross Profit
914.45M	832.36M	656.09M	681.25M	723.37M
	EBIT
249.50M	227.80M	130.92M	204.59M	277.50M
	EBITDA
293.46M	277.42M	162.57M	239.16M	299.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
199.76M	181.44M	102.79M	157.46M	242.70M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
428.67M	353.24M	270.76M	246.98M	447.13M
	Total Assets
2.56B	2.29B	2.04B	1.97B	2.01B
	Total Debt
564.87M	488.75M	441.18M	430.88M	387.17M
	Net Debt
359.75M	222.49M	230.58M	183.90M	-59.96M
	Total Liabilities
865.84M	786.36M	682.03M	684.46M	670.97M
	Stockholders Equity
1.70B	1.51B	1.36B	1.29B	1.33B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
106.90M	130.09M	62.68M	10.04M	330.68M
	Operating Cash Flow
227.45M	254.50M	114.35M	45.03M	361.25M
	Investing Cash Flow
-255.34M	-150.09M	-111.45M	-31.83M	-30.45M
	Financing Cash Flow
-33.25M	-48.74M	-39.27M	-213.35M	26.37M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 107.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 107.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.72, above the 50-day MA of 106.96, and above the 200-day MA of 101.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	76 Outperform	$6.57B	33.19	12.47%	―	8.04%	10.75%
MHO	74 Outperform	$2.83B	5.58	19.02%	―	8.75%	8.39%
M	66 Neutral	$3.11B	5.33	13.40%	6.29%	-3.60%	442.87%
TBBB	66 Neutral	$3.39B	―	6.61%	―	―	―
DG	65 Neutral	$20.58B	18.34	15.89%	2.52%	4.96%	-32.41%
DLTR	61 Neutral	$17.33B	―	18.88%	―	-9.88%	-205.57%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.86B	11.61	3.16%	4.15%	2.41%	-21.45%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Announces Leadership Changes

On February 3, 2025, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings announced leadership changes with John Swygert transitioning from CEO to Executive Chairman and Eric van der Valk promoted to President and CEO, effective February 2, 2025. This shift completes the company’s Leadership Succession Plan, enhancing its competitive positioning and growth potential in the retail industry.