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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI)
NASDAQ:OLLI
RESEARCH TOOLSreports
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
(NASDAQ:OLLI)72Outperform
Positive Factors
Growth Strategy
Management outlined a growth plan with a potential for significant unit growth, supported by new store openings and acquisition opportunities from Big Lots closures.
Market Share
The closure of Big Lots stores is expected to provide a market share tailwind for Ollie's Bargain Outlet by capturing customers from overlapping locations.
Negative Factors
Sales Performance
Near-term, management’s implied same-store-sales guidance embeds a headwind associated with Big Lots store closures, which could impact sales performance.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)891.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.8
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth12.48%
EPS Growth32.49%
CountryUS
Employees11,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength53
IndustryRetailers - Staples
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.36
Shares Outstanding61,276,880
10 Day Avg. Volume1,048,867
30 Day Avg. Volume891,216
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.95
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.81
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-363.30
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$122.83Price Target Upside18.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOllie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) is a leading American retailer specializing in offering brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company operates in the discount retail sector, focusing on a variety of product categories including housewares, food, books, electronics, toys, and seasonal items. Established in 1982, Ollie's maintains a large network of stores across the United States, where it delivers a treasure hunt shopping experience by stocking excess inventory, overstocks, and closeouts from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.
How the Company Makes MoneyOllie's Bargain Outlet generates revenue through the sale of discounted merchandise across its chain of retail stores. The company's revenue model hinges on purchasing excess and overstocked goods from suppliers at low prices and passing the savings on to customers. This approach enables Ollie's to offer significant discounts on a wide range of products, which attracts cost-conscious consumers looking for value. Additionally, Ollie's optimizes its earnings by maintaining tight cost controls and leveraging economies of scale. The company's ability to source products opportunistically and its reputation for offering 'Good Stuff Cheap' are key factors driving its financial performance.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ollie's Bargain Outlet has demonstrated strong revenue growth and healthy profit margins. The balance sheet shows a solid equity base and moderate leverage, but there is room for improvement in operational efficiency and leverage management. The cash flow is robust, indicating effective capital management and strong financial health.Income Statement
Ollie's Bargain Outlet has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trend over the years, with the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increasing significantly compared to previous years. Gross profit and net profit margins are healthy, contributing to stable profitability. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins in the latest TTM period, which could indicate rising operational costs.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is strong, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio has slightly declined, suggesting an increase in liabilities relative to assets.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Ollie's Bargain Outlet has a robust operating cash flow, supporting its net income well. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, indicating effective capital expenditure management and cash generation capabilities. The cash flow metrics suggest strong financial health, although there is room for improvement in optimizing capital investments.80
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.25B | 2.10B | 1.83B | 1.75B | 1.81B | 1.41B | Gross Profit |
| 890.51M | 832.36M | 656.09M | 681.25M | 723.37M | 555.59M | EBIT |
| 263.79M | 227.80M | 130.92M | 204.59M | 277.50M | 171.85M | EBITDA |
| 311.61M | 277.42M | 162.57M | 239.16M | 299.96M | 189.40M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 171.80M | 181.44M | 102.79M | 157.46M | 242.70M | 141.13M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 353.24M | 353.24M | 270.76M | 246.98M | 447.13M | 89.95M | Total Assets |
| 2.29B | 2.29B | 2.04B | 1.97B | 2.01B | 1.59B | Total Debt |
| 488.75M | 488.75M | 441.18M | 430.88M | 387.17M | 350.14M | Net Debt |
| 222.49M | 222.49M | 230.58M | 183.90M | -59.96M | 260.19M | Total Liabilities |
| 786.36M | 786.36M | 682.03M | 684.46M | 670.97M | 533.41M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.51B | 1.51B | 1.36B | 1.29B | 1.33B | 1.06B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 114.94M | 130.09M | 62.68M | 10.04M | 330.68M | 28.36M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 223.13M | 254.50M | 114.35M | 45.03M | 361.25M | 105.34M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -208.23M | -150.09M | -111.45M | -31.83M | -30.45M | -34.12M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -45.76M | -48.74M | -39.27M | -213.35M | 26.37M | -33.21M |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
103.39
Price Trends
107.60
Negative
102.28
Positive
97.62
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.58
Negative
48.41
Neutral
65.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.51, below the 50-day MA of 107.60, and above the 200-day MA of 97.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLLI.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Risk Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $136.85B | 28.58 | 59.57% | 1.21% | 3.95% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $44.86B | 21.40 | 40.16% | 1.07% | 8.54% | 25.99% | |
72 Outperform | $6.34B | 30.85 | 12.84% | ― | 12.48% | 32.49% | |
72 Outperform | $14.62B | 31.54 | 17.02% | ― | 12.18% | 60.91% | |
68 Neutral | $15.81B | 11.84 | 18.19% | 3.28% | 2.90% | -30.27% | |
60 Neutral | $13.01B | 10.45 | 0.79% | 3.53% | 1.60% | -22.47% | |
56 Neutral | $14.34B | ― | -13.67% | ― | 5.19% | -190.36% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
103.39
27.22
35.74%
DG
Dollar General
72.92
-78.40
-51.81%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
66.68
-82.40
-55.27%
ROST
Ross Stores
135.97
-11.74
-7.95%
TJX
TJX Companies
121.74
25.64
26.68%
BURL
Burlington Stores
230.27
18.16
8.56%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Dec 10, 2024 | % Change Since: 5.45% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook, with strong sales growth, record store openings, and improved margins. While there were some challenges in specific categories and increased costs, the company's strategic initiatives and raised guidance for the full year indicate strong business momentum.Highlights
Strong Sales and Earnings Growth
Net sales increased 14.8% to $480 million, comparable store sales increased 7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 29.5% to $51 million.
Record Store Openings
Opened a record 23 new stores in the quarter, surpassing the 500-store milestone with a total of 505 stores in 30 states.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin improved by 100 basis points to 40.4%, driven by favorable supply chain costs.
Ollie's Army Growth
Membership increased by 4.8% year-over-year to 13.7 million members, accounting for over 80% of sales.
Raising Full-Year Guidance
Raised sales and earnings guidance for the full year based on strong Q3 results and current business trends.
Lowlights
Category Underperformance
Furniture, domestics, and clothing were underperforming categories in the quarter, although improvements were seen in domestics and clothing going into Q4.
Increased SG&A Costs
SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales leveraged 40 basis points, with higher incentive compensation costs impacting results.
Promotional Cadence Adjustments
Shifted one flyer out of Q3 into Q4, which had an impact on sales cadence.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter earnings call for Ollie's Bargain Outlet, the company provided updated guidance reflecting strong performance and increased expectations. The company reported a 7% increase in comparable store sales and a 14.8% rise in net sales, reaching $480 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 29.5% to $51 million, and Ollie's opened a record 23 new stores, bringing the total to 505 stores in 30 states. The company highlighted broad-based strength across categories with over 60% comping positive, particularly in candy, sporting goods, housewares, food, and toys. Given these results, Ollie's raised its full-year guidance, projecting net sales between $2.097 billion and $2.104 billion and comparable store sales growth of 5.3% to 5.6%. The company also anticipates a gross margin of 39.2% to 39.3%, operating income between $221 million and $225 million, and adjusted net income per diluted share of $2.77 to $2.83. Additionally, Ollie's plans to open a total of 45 new stores (less one closure) and expects capital expenditures of approximately $125 million for the year.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Announces Leadership Changes
Positive
Feb 3, 2025
On February 3, 2025, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings announced leadership changes with John Swygert transitioning from CEO to Executive Chairman and Eric van der Valk promoted to President and CEO, effective February 2, 2025. This shift completes the company’s Leadership Succession Plan, enhancing its competitive positioning and growth potential in the retail industry.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.