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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI)
NASDAQ:OLLI
RESEARCH TOOLSreports
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
(NASDAQ:OLLI)
77Outperform
Positive Factors
Earnings
OLLI had a high quality quarter, beating on most metrics and experiencing less of an impact than expected from Big Lots liquidations.
Growth Strategy
Management outlined a growth plan with a potential for significant unit growth, supported by new store openings and acquisition opportunities from Big Lots closures.
Market Share
The closure of Big Lots stores is expected to provide a market share tailwind for Ollie's Bargain Outlet by capturing customers from overlapping locations.
Negative Factors
Consumer Demand
Possible execution risk, inconsistent closeout deal flow, and soft consumer demand for discretionary spending could limit top-line/EBIT margin expansion.
Guidance
Initial '25 guidance came in below street expectations, indicating potential caution from management.
Same-Store Sales
Near-term, management’s implied same-store-sales guidance embeds a headwind associated with Big Lots store closures, which could impact sales performance.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.0
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth8.04%
EPS Growth10.75%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength61
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.23
Shares Outstanding61,251,020
10 Day Avg. Volume1,323,008
30 Day Avg. Volume1,317,290
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.26
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.91
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-375.10
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$125.29Price Target Upside10.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOllie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) is a leading American retailer specializing in offering brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company operates in the discount retail sector, focusing on a variety of product categories including housewares, food, books, electronics, toys, and seasonal items. Established in 1982, Ollie's maintains a large network of stores across the United States, where it delivers a treasure hunt shopping experience by stocking excess inventory, overstocks, and closeouts from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.
How the Company Makes MoneyOllie's Bargain Outlet generates revenue through the sale of discounted merchandise across its chain of retail stores. The company's revenue model hinges on purchasing excess and overstocked goods from suppliers at low prices and passing the savings on to customers. This approach enables Ollie's to offer significant discounts on a wide range of products, which attracts cost-conscious consumers looking for value. Additionally, Ollie's optimizes its earnings by maintaining tight cost controls and leveraging economies of scale. The company's ability to source products opportunistically and its reputation for offering 'Good Stuff Cheap' are key factors driving its financial performance.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding demonstrates strong financial health across income, balance sheet, and cash flow perspectives. The company shows robust revenue and profit growth, stable leverage, and efficient cash flow management. These factors collectively indicate a solid financial foundation, positioning the company well for continued success in the Retailers - Staples industry.Income Statement
The company's income statement shows strong growth with a revenue increase of 8.05% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to the previous year. Gross Profit Margin is 39.91%, and Net Profit Margin stands at 8.79%, reflecting efficient cost control. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 11.10% and 13.44%, respectively, indicating solid profitability. The consistent revenue and profit growth trends demonstrate effective business operations and market presence.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.33, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 11.78%, indicating good profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is 66.19%, showing a strong reliance on equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with moderate leverage and healthy equity levels.78
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statements indicate a positive trajectory with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 24.76% in TTM, showcasing effective capital management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.14, reflecting strong cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.81, demonstrating efficient translation of profits into free cash flow. Overall, cash flows are strong and supportive of future growth.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.27B | 2.10B | 1.83B | 1.75B | 1.81B | Gross Profit |
| 914.45M | 832.36M | 656.09M | 681.25M | 723.37M | EBIT |
| 249.50M | 227.80M | 130.92M | 204.59M | 277.50M | EBITDA |
| 299.04M | 277.42M | 162.57M | 239.16M | 299.96M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 199.76M | 181.44M | 102.79M | 157.46M | 242.70M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 428.67M | 353.24M | 270.76M | 246.98M | 447.13M | Total Assets |
| 2.56B | 2.29B | 2.04B | 1.97B | 2.01B | Total Debt |
| 564.87M | 488.75M | 441.18M | 430.88M | 387.17M | Net Debt |
| 359.75M | 222.49M | 230.58M | 183.90M | -59.96M | Total Liabilities |
| 865.84M | 786.36M | 682.03M | 684.46M | 670.97M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.36B | 1.29B | 1.33B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 227.45M | 130.09M | 62.68M | 10.04M | 330.68M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 227.45M | 254.50M | 114.35M | 45.03M | 361.25M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -255.34M | -150.09M | -111.45M | -31.83M | -30.45M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -33.25M | -48.74M | -39.27M | -213.35M | 26.37M |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
113.29
Price Trends
106.51
Positive
105.46
Positive
100.66
Positive
Market Momentum
2.60
Negative
62.28
Neutral
91.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.86, above the 50-day MA of 106.51, and above the 200-day MA of 100.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLLI.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Risk Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.94B | 35.04 | 12.47% | ― | 8.04% | 10.75% | |
76 Outperform | $2.96B | 5.80 | 20.66% | ― | 11.84% | 21.14% | |
69 Neutral | $3.18B | 5.52 | 13.40% | 6.17% | -3.60% | 442.87% | |
66 Neutral | $3.15B | ― | 6.61% | ― | ― | ― | |
65 Neutral | $20.77B | 18.46 | 15.89% | 2.55% | 4.96% | -32.41% | |
59 Neutral | $11.22B | 10.13 | -1.22% | 3.96% | 1.32% | -18.57% | |
57 Neutral | $14.46B | ― | 18.88% | ― | -9.88% | -205.57% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
113.29
40.32
55.26%
DG
Dollar General
92.62
-61.11
-39.75%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
67.55
-60.67
-47.32%
MHO
M/I Homes
114.29
-10.98
-8.77%
M
Macy's
11.38
-7.30
-39.08%
TBBB
BBB Foods, Inc. Class A
25.27
2.28
9.92%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 19, 2025 | % Change Since: 14.37% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 4, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook with Ollie's achieving expected sales growth and planning significant expansion through new store openings and strategic acquisitions. While there are some challenges, such as the impact of Big Lots liquidation and increased pre-opening expenses, the company's strong financial position and strategic initiatives suggest a favorable long-term growth trajectory.Highlights
Fourth Quarter Comparable Store Sales Growth
Ollie's delivered a comparable store sales growth of 2.8% in the fourth quarter, which was in line with expectations, despite challenges such as a compressed holiday season.
Acquisition of Big Lots Store Leases
Ollie's announced an agreement to acquire 40 additional store leases from former Big Lots locations, which are expected to generate outsized profitability due to below-market rents and long-term leases.
Expansion and Store Openings
Ollie's opened 13 new stores in the fourth quarter and plans to open approximately 75 new stores in the upcoming fiscal year, indicating accelerated growth.
Increase in Ollie's Army Members
Ollie's Army membership increased by over 8% to 15.1 million members, with sales to these members representing over 80% of total sales.
Strong Financial Position
Ollie's maintained a strong balance sheet with $429 million in cash and short-term investments and no outstanding borrowings.
Lowlights
Impact of Big Lots Liquidation
The liquidation of Big Lots stores posed a challenge, creating a headwind for sales in January and February, compounded by unfavorable weather conditions.
Higher Pre-opening Expenses
Pre-opening expenses are expected to rise due to accelerated store growth and earlier timing of new store openings, with dark rent contributing to the increase.
Pressure on Big Ticket Items
Sales of big-ticket items remained soft, reflecting consumer pressures and a shift towards more consumable goods.
Company Guidance
During Ollie's Bargain Outlet's conference call discussing their fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 financial results, the company provided guidance for fiscal year 2025. They plan to open approximately 75 new stores, with total net sales expected to range from $2.564 billion to $2.586 billion and comparable store sales growth projected at 1% to 2%. The gross margin is anticipated to be around 40%, with operating income forecasted between $283 million and $292 million. Adjusted net income is estimated to be between $225 million and $232 million, resulting in adjusted net income per diluted share between $3.65 and $3.75. The guidance also accounts for pre-opening expenses of $21 million, including $5 million in dark rent related to acquired Big Lots locations. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $83 million and $88 million, with an annual effective tax rate of 25%. The company also announced a $300 million share buyback program, reflecting their commitment to returning capital to investors while pursuing strategic growth opportunities.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Announces Leadership Changes
Positive
Feb 3, 2025
On February 3, 2025, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings announced leadership changes with John Swygert transitioning from CEO to Executive Chairman and Eric van der Valk promoted to President and CEO, effective February 2, 2025. This shift completes the company’s Leadership Succession Plan, enhancing its competitive positioning and growth potential in the retail industry.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.