Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 12.58%
• EPS Growth: 7.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.39
• Shares Outstanding: 60,956,215
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,717,431
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,166,452
• PEG Ratio: 1.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.64
• 1Y Price Target: $138.78
• Price Target Upside: 40.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.00B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $117.00 ▲(18.23% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/17/26

Overall score reflects solid financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (store growth, comps and EPS guidance, and increased repurchases), partially offset by weak technical trend signals and a relatively high P/E with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Unit Growth & Store Expansion

Sustained, front‑loaded unit growth is a durable growth engine: rapid store expansion increases revenue capacity, geographic reach and purchasing scale. Over 2–6 months new openings expand the base for comps and improve bargaining leverage with suppliers, supporting long‑term margin and sales growth.

Stable Gross Margins

A roughly 40% gross margin reflects the structural advantage of an off‑price buying model that sources deeply discounted inventory. This durable margin buffer supports resilience vs. conventional retail and provides room for targeted promotional reinvestments while maintaining solid operating profitability over the medium term.

Improved Cash Generation & Capital Return

Stronger free cash flow and a bolstered cash position give management flexibility to fund capex, DC expansion and shareholder returns. A formal commitment to return ~50% of FCF and stepped‑up buybacks is a durable indicator of disciplined capital allocation and enhances shareholder optionality while keeping leverage manageable.

Negative Factors

Inventory Build

A sizeable inventory build materially raises working capital requirements and increases exposure to demand shifts. Over the next several months elevated stock levels can pressure cash conversion, introduce markdown risk if sourcing quality falls, and amplify FCF and margin volatility if sell‑through softens.

Margin Reinvestment & Tariff Risk

Management's deliberate price investments compressed gross margins and leave less cushion for cost shocks. Coupled with an uncertain tariff backdrop, structural margin pressure could persist, forcing either continued reinvestment or margin recovery through cost cuts—both of which affect sustainable operating profitability.

New‑Store Productivity Timing

A slowdown in new‑store maturation delays expected payback and depresses near‑term unit returns. With aggressive expansion front‑loaded, slower productivity raises short‑term capital intensity and could increase preopening and DC capacity needs, pressuring cash flows and ROI during rollout phases.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products. It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names. As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie’s makes money primarily by purchasing merchandise at steep discounts and reselling it through its chain of retail stores at prices that are meaningfully below traditional retailers while still generating a gross profit margin. Its core revenue stream is retail sales to consumers across multiple product categories, with the assortment and availability varying based on what the company can buy cheaply in the closeout/overstock marketplace. A key driver of earnings is the spread between the company’s low acquisition costs (from buying excess inventory, cancelled orders, packaging changes, retailer bankruptcies, and other opportunistic sources) and its selling prices, supported by high inventory turnover in categories where it can source attractive deals. Profitability is also influenced by store-level operating efficiency (rent, labor, and distribution costs), merchandising execution (finding and buying discounted lots), and customer traffic supported by its loyalty program and promotional strategy. Specific material partnerships are null.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals with stable ~40% gross margin and ~9% net margin, improved profitability versus 2023, and a sharp rebound in free cash flow. Offsetting factors are moderating revenue growth, only moderate cash conversion (~59% of net income), and a modest upward drift in leverage (debt ~0.37x equity).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew 4.4% and profitability remains solid, with gross margin holding around ~40% and net margin near ~9%. Earnings power has improved versus 2023 as operating profitability rebounded, though results are still below the stronger 2021 margin profile and revenue growth has cooled meaningfully from the 2024 step-up.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt at ~0.37x equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but it has drifted upward versus prior years as debt rose. Shareholder returns are healthy (ROE ~12.7% TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), though not back to the peak levels seen earlier, suggesting a solid—though not exceptional—balance sheet position.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with free cash flow up ~38% and free cash flow at ~$213M, but cash conversion is only moderate with free cash flow running at ~59% of net income. Operating cash flow also covers less than 1x net income in recent periods, indicating working-capital or timing headwinds and some volatility versus the very strong 2021 cash profile.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.65B	2.27B	2.10B	1.83B	1.75B
Gross Profit	1.03B	914.45M	832.37M	656.09M	681.25M
EBITDA	378.18M	293.46M	277.42M	171.31M	239.16M
Net Income	240.60M	199.76M	181.44M	102.79M	157.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.95B	2.56B	2.29B	2.04B	1.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	296.31M	428.67M	353.24M	270.76M	246.98M
Total Debt	685.93M	564.87M	488.75M	441.18M	431.93M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	865.84M	786.36M	682.03M	684.46M
Stockholders Equity	1.89B	1.70B	1.51B	1.36B	1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	194.66M	106.90M	130.09M	62.68M	10.04M
Operating Cash Flow	296.54M	227.45M	254.50M	114.35M	45.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-179.93M	-255.34M	-150.09M	-111.45M	-31.83M
Financing Cash Flow	-62.06M	-33.25M	-48.74M	-39.27M	-213.35M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 98.96
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 98.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.55, below the 50-day MA of 109.78, and below the 200-day MA of 121.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSMT	73 Outperform	$4.34B	23.80	11.94%	1.02%	7.25%	5.42%
OLLI	70 Outperform	$6.03B	19.75	13.30%	―	12.58%	7.80%
BJ	68 Neutral	$12.58B	20.97	27.41%	―	2.82%	3.77%
SFM	65 Neutral	$7.74B	15.05	38.21%	―	16.60%	49.76%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DG	57 Neutral	$27.41B	20.87	18.66%	1.88%	4.86%	-4.51%
DLTR	51 Neutral	$20.90B	18.87	34.83%	―	-39.27%	-182.36%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Ollie’s Announces Merchandising Leadership Transition and Succession

On March 10, 2026, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. announced that long-serving Senior Vice President and General Merchandise Manager Kevin McLain will retire effective May 1, 2026, after holding the role since May 2014. His departure follows a planned transition under the company’s succession strategy, reflecting deliberate leadership continuity in merchandising.

Effective May 1, 2026, Shane Thornton will assume the role of Senior Vice President, General Merchandise Manager, having been elevated into the position in March 2025 to report to McLain and President and CEO Eric van der Valk. Thornton’s progression from buyer to senior merchandising leadership since joining in 2010 underscores a deep internal talent bench and aims to support ongoing merchandising and operational strategy execution for the discount retailer.

The most recent analyst rating on (OLLI) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holding stock, see the OLLI Stock Forecast page.