Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: -39.27%
• EPS Growth: -182.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 2.56
• Shares Outstanding: 198,853,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,988,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,807,089
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.31
• 1Y Price Target: $127.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $20.66B

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $108.00 ▼(-5.56% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/16/26

The score is held back mainly by weak technicals and mixed fundamentals (recent net losses and higher leverage), partly offset by solid operating cash generation and constructive guidance/updates pointing to continued sales growth and margin improvement.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Consistent trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, rollout and buybacks, and buffer against economic swings. This cash conversion supports strategic investments and partially offsets elevated leverage over the medium term.

Multi-Price Strategy

The multi-price format is a structural margin enhancer: it yields materially higher profit per item and has been scaled across thousands of stores. That persistent mix shift raises average ticket and discretionary margins, improving long-term profitability and differentiation in discount retailing.

Customer Base Expansion

Attracting millions of new households, including a majority from higher-income cohorts, broadens the customer base and increases resilience. A wealthier mix supports higher average tickets, better discretionary mix and more stable sales across economic cycles, aiding sustainable revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

High leverage and reduced equity limit financial flexibility for a retail company exposed to traffic volatility. Elevated debt raises interest sensitivity and constrains capacity to invest or absorb shocks, making balance-sheet repair and cash allocation trade-offs a medium-term strategic issue.

Negative Net Profitability

Operating profits contrast with persistent negative net margins, indicating below-the-line pressures (interest, taxes, one-offs) that erode earnings quality. This volatility reduces retained earnings, complicates leverage reduction, and impairs visibility into sustainable net income generation.

SG&A and Shrink Pressures

Rising store payroll, restickering costs and higher shrink are structural margin headwinds that can persist as the chain modernizes formats and expands. These cost pressures compress operating leverage and require ongoing execution to protect margin expansion from merchandising gains.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree primarily makes money by selling merchandise in its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar retail stores. Revenue is generated when customers purchase products across key categories such as consumables (which tend to drive frequent trips and repeat purchases) and discretionary/seasonal items (which can carry different margins and support basket-building). The company’s earnings are influenced by retail fundamentals including unit volume (traffic and average transaction size), product mix (higher- vs. lower-margin categories), pricing architecture (including multi-price offerings at Dollar Tree and varied price points at Family Dollar), procurement scale, and supply-chain/logistics efficiency. Gross profit is created by sourcing goods from manufacturers and wholesalers, importing some products, then selling them at a markup; operating profit depends on store labor, rent/occupancy, distribution, shrink, and other operating costs. Other income sources (if any) that are not material to disclosed operations are null.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance and cash generation are supportive (stable ~36% gross margin; strong TTM operating cash flow and positive free cash flow), but recent net losses and elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.51; negative ROE) reduce earnings quality and balance-sheet flexibility.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is solid (+2.38%), and gross margin is steady around ~36%, suggesting resilient pricing/merchandising. However, profitability is volatile: net margin is negative in the TTM and was also negative in 2024 and 2025, despite positive operating margin (~8–11% EBIT/EBITDA margins). Overall, the core business appears to generate operating profits, but below-the-line items have driven inconsistent net earnings and reduce earnings quality/visibility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated with debt-to-equity at ~1.51 in TTM (and higher in 2025), which limits flexibility in a tougher consumer environment. Equity has also stepped down versus 2023–2024, and returns on equity are negative in the TTM and the last two annual periods, reflecting recent net losses. While the asset base remains sizable, the combination of higher leverage and weak recent net profitability is the key balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM operating cash flow is strong (~$2.63B) and free cash flow is positive (~$1.12B). That said, free cash flow is down sharply versus the prior year (about -30%), and cash flow only partially covers debt in the TTM (operating cash flow-to-debt around ~0.61). Free cash flow is also below net income on a coverage basis in the TTM, indicating conversion is decent but not exceptional.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.41B	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B
Gross Profit	7.07B	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B
EBITDA	2.25B	2.02B	2.17B	2.46B	2.53B
Net Income	1.28B	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.47B	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	717.80M	1.26B	425.20M	642.80M	984.90M
Total Debt	4.62B	7.83B	7.37B	10.13B	9.97B
Total Liabilities	9.71B	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B
Stockholders Equity	3.75B	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.06B	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M
Operating Cash Flow	2.19B	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.13B	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.56B	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 114.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 114.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 121.15, below the 50-day MA of 125.12, and above the 200-day MA of 110.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	70 Outperform	$6.38B	28.12	13.30%	―	12.58%	7.80%
TSN	63 Neutral	$21.42B	59.42	1.10%	3.48%	2.12%	-40.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KR	62 Neutral	$46.91B	40.33	13.04%	2.15%	-1.77%	-70.83%
ACI	61 Neutral	$9.06B	8.31	28.54%	3.49%	2.08%	-1.63%
DG	57 Neutral	$28.82B	20.87	18.66%	1.88%	4.86%	-4.51%
DLTR	51 Neutral	$22.07B	11.44	34.98%	―	-39.27%	-182.36%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Posts Strong Q4, Sets Upbeat 2026 Outlook

On March 16, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results from continuing operations, following the classification of its Family Dollar segment as discontinued operations. For the quarter ended January 31, 2026, net sales rose 9.0% to $5.45 billion, same-store sales climbed 5.0% on higher average ticket, and gross margin expanded to 39.1%, driving a 30.2% increase in operating income and diluted EPS of $2.56.

For fiscal 2025, net sales grew 10.4% to $19.4 billion, with 5.3% same-store sales growth, operating income up 13.1% to $1.7 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations up 13% to $5.75, while the company generated $1.1 billion in free cash flow and returned about $1.6 billion to shareholders via buybacks. Operationally, Dollar Tree opened 402 new stores, expanded its Dollar Tree 3.0 multi-price format to about 5,300 locations, and entered fiscal 2026 with a solid balance sheet and a cautious but positive outlook, guiding for 3%–4% comparable sales growth, modest new-store expansion, and higher adjusted EPS, underscoring its confidence in sustained value-driven growth in the discount retail market.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $123.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Release and Call

On February 23, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will release financial results for its fourth quarter 2025, which ended January 31, 2026, before the market opens on Monday, March 16, 2026. The company will host an earnings conference call at 8 a.m. Eastern Time that day, led by Chief Executive Officer Mike Creedon and Chief Financial Officer Stewart Glendinning, who will review the results and take questions from investors and analysts.

The scheduled earnings release and call underscore Dollar Tree’s efforts to maintain transparency with the investment community and could provide fresh insight into the company’s recent performance and strategic direction. The event will be accessible via webcast on the company’s investor relations website, with a replay available for a week, ensuring broad access for shareholders and market participants.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.