NexGel Inc (NXGL)
NASDAQ:NXGL
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NexGel Inc
(NASDAQ:NXGL)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$0.61
▼(-62.99% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/25/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals (ongoing losses, negative cash flow, and inconsistent recent revenue) and bearish technicals (trading below major moving averages). These are partially offset by the latest earnings-call guidance pointing to a potentially large step-up in scale and a near-term path to EBITDA profitability, though financing/dilution and execution risks remain material.
Positive Factors
Transformational Acquisition & Scale
The Celularity asset/license deal materially increases scale to an estimated $35M run rate, improving fixed-cost absorption and operating leverage. Larger, diversified revenue should sustainably reduce per-unit costs and support margin expansion if integration and sales reactivation proceed as planned.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation & Persistent Burn
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow indicates NexGel cannot self-fund growth or integration costs. Persistent cash burn forces repeated external financing, raising dilution risk and constraining investments in sales, R&D and integration—structural limits on sustainable growth without reliable funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Transformational Acquisition & Scale
The Celularity asset/license deal materially increases scale to an estimated $35M run rate, improving fixed-cost absorption and operating leverage. Larger, diversified revenue should sustainably reduce per-unit costs and support margin expansion if integration and sales reactivation proceed as planned.
Read all positive factors
NexGel Inc (NXGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.71M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)50.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth31.46%
EPS Growth24.70%
CountryUS
Employees19
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Instruments & Supplies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding8,475,693
10 Day Avg. Volume60,354
30 Day Avg. Volume50,949
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.84
Price to Sales (P/S)1.11
P/FCF Ratio-9.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.00Price Target Upside21.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.88M
NexGel Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NexGel Inc (NXGL) is a specialized healthcare company that focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative hydrogels and other products primarily for the medical and personal care markets. The company operates in the healthcare sect...
How the Company Makes Money
NexGel makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling hydrogel-based products and by providing contract development and manufacturing services centered on its hydrogel technology. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales of hydrogel-base...
NexGel Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights a strategically transformative acquisition that materially increases scale (pro forma ~3x revenue run rate to $35M), adds a commercial product portfolio in ~500 hospitals, and secures a strategic manufacturing and financing partner that should accelerate revenue, R&D and profitability. However, the transaction includes a complex financing structure with potential dilution (convertible notes, warrants), immediate cash obligations assumed from Celularity (≈$2.9M in commissions), prior seller financial issues, Q4 soft results and notable seasonality and execution risk tied to reactivating the salesforce. Overall, the opportunities and near-term profit potential are meaningful but balanced by execution, financing and dilution risks.Positive Updates
Transformational Acquisition and Revenue Upside
Closed acquisition of Celularity's degenerative wound segment that pro forma approximately triples NEXGEL's annual revenue run rate to roughly $35 million (≈3x). Management states the transaction is immediately accretive to profitability.
Negative Updates
Q4 Underperformance and Seasonality Risk
Q4 came in materially below guidance with several new products underperforming; management noted consumer-product anomalies in Q4. Business is seasonal (Q1 weakest; Q3/Q4 strongest) which creates cash-flow timing risk and dependence on successful recovery of salesforce activity.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational Acquisition and Revenue Upside
Closed acquisition of Celularity's degenerative wound segment that pro forma approximately triples NEXGEL's annual revenue run rate to roughly $35 million (≈3x). Management states the transaction is immediately accretive to profitability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management guided that the Celularity deal and Sequence LifeScience financing (Sequence total investment $5.5M; $3.0M cash; convertible notes at $0.60 conversion with 50% warrant coverage at $0.80) will be transformative—pro forma revenue is expected to approximately triple to roughly $35M and be immediately accretive to profitability, with the company targeting rolling 12‑month EBITDA and operating profitability (management expects EBITDA profitability by the fiscal quarter ending Sept. 30). They reiterated seasonality (Q1 weakest, Q2 stronger, Q3/Q4 strongest, historically Q4 can equal the rest of the year), modeled that a $22–23M revenue run rate would generate ~$4.0–4.5M EBITDA, and expect a blended contribution margin of ~52% (with surgical margins high but sales commissions up to 30–40%, wound care ~15–20% of revenue); fixed overhead was cited around $6.0–6.5M. Additional metrics: $5.3M paid at closing to Celularity plus assumption of ~$2.9M in sales rep obligations, three 510(k) pipeline products with $4.6M paid‑in capital (timed 2026–2028), historical peak sales near $50M (2024), deal raise anticipated ~$12–14M (implying roughly ~30M shares post‑deal) and conversion math ~2.4M shares per $1M (if warrants exercised), royalties of 5%/3%/1% on SPARK/ORCHID/FUSE (sunset ~7 years), and an 18‑month, 10% coupon note maturity.NexGel Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.42M | 8.69M | 4.09M | 2.05M | 1.55M |
| Gross Profit | 4.51M | 2.75M | 374.00K | 256.00K | 8.00K |
| EBITDA | -2.12M | -2.90M | -2.73M | -3.11M | -2.17M |
| Net Income | -3.00M | -3.28M | -3.16M | -4.75M | -4.31M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.46M | 10.98M | 9.96M | 10.36M | 16.98M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 317.00K | 1.81M | 2.70M | 6.61M | 13.35M |
| Total Debt | 3.09M | 2.83M | 2.80M | 2.08M | 4.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.57M | 4.90M | 4.79M | 2.72M | 4.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.46M | 5.75M | 4.70M | 7.64M | 12.09M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.38M | -4.31M | -3.93M | -3.09M | -3.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.31M | -3.87M | -3.24M | -2.99M | -2.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -68.00K | -775.00K | 4.46M | -5.59M | -269.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 630.00K | 3.75M | 379.00K | -3.66M | 16.34M |
NexGel Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
1.64
Price Trends
0.92
Negative
1.27
Negative
1.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
42.03
Neutral
53.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.64, above the 50-day MA of 0.92, and below the 200-day MA of 1.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NXGL.
NexGel Inc Risk Analysis
NexGel Inc disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NexGel Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NexGel Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $6.71M | -3.26 | -55.33% | ― | 31.46% | 24.70% | |
48 Neutral | $27.35M | -5.14 | -164.78% | ― | 3.99% | -17.45% | |
46 Neutral | $173.53M | -5.36 | -178.57% | ― | 19.01% | -282.10% | |
45 Neutral | $19.25M | -1.84 | -8.13% | ― | 15.78% | -5.58% | |
45 Neutral | $45.79M | -4.53 | -60.56% | ― | 30.69% | -43.22% | |
42 Neutral | $23.62M | -1.44 | -534.91% | ― | 40.77% | 33.45% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NXGL
NexGel Inc
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SMTI
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FEMY
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NexGel Inc Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NexGel Receives Nasdaq Deficiency Notice Over Bid Price
Negative
Apr 24, 2026
On April 22, 2026, NexGel, Inc. disclosed that it received a deficiency notice from Nasdaq after its common stock traded below the $1.00 minimum bid price for 30 consecutive business days, triggering noncompliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NEXGEL Secures Strategic Financing and Regenerative Portfolio License
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 17, 2026, NEXGEL completed an amended asset purchase and exclusive license deal with Celularity to acquire an exclusive license to a commercial-stage regenerative biomaterials portfolio, related assets and sales representative obligations...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NexGel Acquires Celularity Regenerative Biomaterials in Transformative Deal
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, NEXGEL, Inc. entered into an asset purchase and exclusive license agreement with Celularity, Inc. to acquire an exclusive license to Celularity’s commercial-stage regenerative biomaterials portfolio and related assets, focu...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NexGel Secures Convertible Note Financing for Acquisition
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 9–10, 2026, NEXGEL, Inc. entered into a securities purchase agreement with an institutional investor for a senior secured, 10% OID convertible note facility of up to about $56.7 million, initially issuing $1.797 million of Series...
Executive/Board Changes
NexGel director and compensation chair Nachum Stein resigns
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
On January 29, 2026, NexGel Inc. announced that board member Nachum Stein, who serves as chairperson of the board’s Compensation Committee, notified the company of his intention to resign from the Board of Directors effective February 2, 202...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.