NexGel Inc (NXGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.59M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 50.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 73.38%
• EPS Growth: 34.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Instruments & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 8,143,133
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 60,354
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 50,949
• PEG Ratio: 0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.34
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.92
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.88M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-39.02% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/08/26

The score is driven primarily by still-weak financial fundamentals (ongoing losses and negative free cash flow) despite improving margins and prior revenue scaling. Technicals are mixed with the stock below key longer-term moving averages. Guidance and partnerships support a better near-term outlook, but flat recent revenue and partnership/logistics uncertainties temper confidence, and valuation metrics provide limited support due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Improved Gross Margins

Sustained gross-margin improvement to 42.4% reflects better product mix and manufacturing execution, increasing operating leverage potential. Higher margins provide durable cushion for profitability as revenue scales, reducing breakeven revenue and supporting longer-term cash flow improvements even if growth moderates.

Multi-year Revenue Scaling

Meaningful multi-year revenue growth shows product-market fit and expanding distribution. This scaling builds a base for fixed-cost absorption and operating leverage, improving the odds of sustainable margins and eventual profitability as the company converts a larger installed revenue base into recurring sales and partner contracts.

Contract Manufacturing & B2B Demand

Growing contract-manufacturing revenue provides diversified, B2B cash flows and deeper customer relationships that are harder to displace. This segment supports stable utilization of capacity, predictable order patterns, and margin stability compared with only consumer-facing sales, strengthening the firm's business model over time.

Negative Factors

Negative Operating Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow (~-$2.5M TTM) forces reliance on external financing, increasing dilution or debt risk. Until core operations generate positive cash, growth initiatives and marketing push require funding, constraining strategic flexibility and raising sustainability concerns over the medium term.

Ongoing Unprofitability

Despite margin gains, a ~-25% TTM net margin and negative EBITDA indicate the company has not achieved operational breakeven. Continued losses erode equity (ROE ~-57%), limit reinvestment capacity, and increase the probability of future capital raises that could dilute existing shareholders if profitability is not sustained.

Key Partnership Uncertainty

Uncertainty with a major partner (AbbVie) creates structural demand risk for device-related orders and shows reliance on large customers. If partner commitments wane, revenue visibility and production planning worsen, raising variability in top-line growth and undermining the stability of manufacturing volume over the medium term.

NexGel Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NexGel Inc (NXGL) is a specialized healthcare company that focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative hydrogels and other products primarily for the medical and personal care markets. The company operates in the healthcare sector, providing solutions that cater to wound care, drug delivery, and personal care applications. NexGel's core products include hydrogel-based formulations that offer unique properties such as moisture retention and biocompatibility, making them suitable for a variety of therapeutic uses.

How the Company Makes Money

NexGel generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary hydrogel products to healthcare providers, distributors, and retail outlets. The company has established key partnerships with healthcare institutions and manufacturers that facilitate the distribution of its products, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, NexGel may also engage in contract manufacturing services, creating customized hydrogel solutions for clients, which adds another layer to its revenue model. The successful commercialization of new products and the expansion into emerging markets further contribute to the company's earnings.

NexGel Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling and improved gross margins support progress toward breakeven, but the company remains unprofitable with meaningful ongoing cash burn and slightly negative TTM revenue growth, keeping financial risk elevated.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled materially over the last several years (from $0.7M in 2020 to $8.7M in 2024 and $11.7M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and profitability has improved meaningfully from deeply negative levels in 2020–2022 to a much narrower loss profile in TTM. Gross margin has also strengthened versus prior years (TTM ~38% vs 2024 ~32% and 2023 ~15%). The key weakness remains that the business is still unprofitable (TTM net margin ~-25% with negative EBIT/EBITDA), and the most recent revenue growth is slightly negative in TTM, suggesting momentum has cooled after the sharp 2023–2024 ramp.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate with debt below equity (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.57), and total assets are stable-to-modestly higher versus the last few years. However, equity has trended down from 2021 to TTM, and returns remain significantly negative (TTM return on equity ~-57%), reflecting ongoing losses that continue to pressure the capital base. Overall, the balance sheet is not overly levered today, but continued losses raise the risk of future dilution or increased borrowing needs.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a major weak point: operating cash flow is negative across all periods, including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) at roughly -$2.5M, and free cash flow is also negative (TTM about -$2.5M). There is some improvement versus 2024 (cash burn narrowed), but free cash flow growth in TTM is meaningfully worse, indicating the recent period did not sustain the improving trend. Until operating cash flow turns positive, the company remains dependent on external funding to support operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.66M	8.69M	4.09M	2.05M	1.55M	674.00K
Gross Profit	4.47M	2.75M	374.00K	256.00K	8.00K	-291.00K
EBITDA	-2.23M	-2.90M	-2.73M	-3.11M	-2.17M	-2.20M
Net Income	-2.88M	-3.28M	-3.16M	-4.75M	-4.31M	-2.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.62M	10.98M	9.96M	10.36M	16.98M	2.26M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	938.00K	1.81M	2.70M	6.61M	13.35M	32.00K
Total Debt	3.09M	2.83M	2.80M	2.08M	4.26M	1.28M
Total Liabilities	6.04M	4.90M	4.79M	2.72M	4.90M	2.19M
Stockholders Equity	5.19M	5.75M	4.70M	7.64M	12.09M	71.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.55M	-4.31M	-3.93M	-3.09M	-3.02M	-2.11M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.45M	-3.87M	-3.24M	-2.99M	-2.75M	-1.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-91.00K	-775.00K	4.46M	-5.59M	-269.00K	-312.00K
Financing Cash Flow	3.34M	3.75M	379.00K	-3.66M	16.34M	1.88M

NexGel Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.22, above the 50-day MA of 1.45, and below the 200-day MA of 2.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.83 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NXGL.

NexGel Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
NXGL	51 Neutral	$11.59M	-7.45	-58.34%	―	73.38%	34.87%
RVP	48 Neutral	$20.65M	16.98	-8.05%	―	-0.95%	58.17%
POCI	48 Neutral	$34.16M	-4.53	-57.98%	―	13.67%	-37.01%
SMTI	42 Neutral	$186.22M	-2.26	-27.19%	―	30.55%	-340.19%
MLSS	42 Neutral	$22.72M	-8.10	-136.47%	―	0.59%	-39.76%
FEMY	41 Neutral	$31.50M	-0.61	-376.23%	―	63.53%	12.49%

NexGel Inc Corporate Events

NexGel director and compensation chair Nachum Stein resigns

On January 29, 2026, NexGel Inc. announced that board member Nachum Stein, who serves as chairperson of the board’s Compensation Committee, notified the company of his intention to resign from the Board of Directors effective February 2, 2026, in order to lighten his schedule and focus on other business ventures. The company emphasized that Stein’s departure is amicable and not due to any disagreement regarding NexGel’s operations, policies, or practices, suggesting limited immediate disruption to governance while still creating a vacancy in a key oversight role on the compensation front.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXGL) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NexGel Inc stock, see the NXGL Stock Forecast page.

NexGel Names Adam Drapczuk Interim Chief Financial Officer

Effective January 1, 2026, NexGel, Inc. appointed veteran finance executive Adam E. Drapczuk III as interim chief financial officer, as well as principal financial and accounting officer, succeeding Joseph F. McGuire, whose employment ended on December 31, 2025. Drapczuk, who previously served as NexGel’s CFO from June 2021 through December 2024 and then as a financial consultant in 2025, brings extensive experience from prior senior finance roles at multiple pharmaceutical companies and at KPMG; he will receive annual cash compensation of $200,000, is currently owed about $93,000 for prior consulting work, and is expected to receive an equity grant under the company’s long-term incentive plan, signaling the board’s move to stabilize financial leadership while it finalizes the terms of McGuire’s separation.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXGL) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NexGel Inc stock, see the NXGL Stock Forecast page.

NexGel Inc Announces Spin-Off of Drug Delivery Unit

On December 11, 2025, NEXGEL, Inc. announced the spin-off of its drug delivery program into a new entity, NexGelRx, which will focus on developing prescription drug delivery solutions using NEXGEL’s proprietary hydrogel technology. As part of the spin-off, NEXGEL shareholders will receive a 19.99% equity interest in NexGelRx and a 5% global royalty on products sold using its technology. This move allows NEXGEL to concentrate on its core business areas while potentially unlocking significant value for its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXGL) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NexGel Inc stock, see the NXGL Stock Forecast page.

NexGel Inc Cancels Special Stockholder Meeting

On November 21, 2025, NexGel Inc.’s Board of Directors decided to cancel a Special Meeting of Stockholders that was scheduled for November 26, 2025. The meeting was initially intended to vote on a proposal to significantly increase the company’s authorized shares from 25 million to 1 billion. This decision indicates that the company will not seek stockholder approval for this substantial increase in authorized shares, which could have implications for the company’s future capital structure and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXGL) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NexGel Inc stock, see the NXGL Stock Forecast page.

NexGel Inc Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 11, 2025, NEXGEL, Inc. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, showing a slight decrease in net revenue to $2.93 million compared to the previous year. Despite a flat revenue, the company improved its gross profit margin to 42.4% and narrowed its adjusted EBITDA loss, driven by strong performance in contract manufacturing and consumer branded products. The company continues to expand its reach with new product launches and strategic partnerships, reflecting confidence in its advanced hydrogel technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXGL) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NexGel Inc stock, see the NXGL Stock Forecast page.