NVR (NVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.43B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 25.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 3.61%
• EPS Growth: -6.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 121.54
• Shares Outstanding: 2,793,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,257
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 25,511
• PEG Ratio: -1.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.95
• 1Y Price Target: $8,104.40
• Price Target Upside: 22.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 402.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.67B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $7,275.00 ▲(10.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high profitability/ROE, improving leverage, solid cash conversion) and supportive technical momentum (above key moving averages with a positive MACD). This is tempered by recent margin and free-cash-flow weakening and only mid-range valuation support given a ~18 P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High ROE / Profitability

Sustained, very high ROE indicates NVR converts capital into profitable returns reliably, reflecting efficient land use, pricing and cost control. Over 2–6 months this underpins resilience to moderate demand swings and supports reinvestment and shareholder optionality.

Strong cash generation

Consistent operating cash conversion means earnings largely translate into cash, enabling capex, lot purchases, and mortgage support without heavy external financing. This durable cash-generation ability preserves strategic flexibility across housing cycles.

Integrated mortgage & homebuilding model

Tight integration of mortgage origination with home sales boosts conversion and fee capture, lowering customer friction and enhancing lifetime value. Over months this structural model supports stable revenue streams and cross-selling advantages versus builders without captive lending.

Negative Factors

Margin compression

Eroding margins despite top-line growth point to rising build or overhead costs or mix shifts. Persistently narrower margins reduce the buffer against downturns, pressure free cash flow and limit reinvestment capacity, making earnings more cyclical and sensitive to cost volatility.

Weakening free cash flow momentum

A multi-year decline in FCF momentum, culminating in a steeper 2025 drop, reduces internal funding for land acquisitions and mortgage support. Over several months this constrains growth options and increases reliance on disciplined working-capital and lot-cycle management.

High sensitivity to housing cycle & rates

NVR's earnings are structurally exposed to macro housing demand, interest-rate-driven mortgage demand, and local entitlement/land supply. These secular and policy-driven factors can materially swing volumes and margins over months, amplifying operational cyclicality.

NVR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

NVR primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes to individual homebuyers. The largest revenue stream is homebuilding revenue, recognized from the sale of completed (or contractually delivered) homes across its operating markets and brands; profitability in this segment is driven by the volume of home deliveries, average selling prices, construction and land-related costs, and the company’s ability to manage cycle times and operating expenses. A secondary revenue stream comes from mortgage banking: through its mortgage subsidiary, NVR originates residential mortgage loans—primarily for buyers of NVR homes—and earns revenue from loan origination and related fees, and from the sale of originated loans into the secondary market (and, where applicable, associated gain-on-sale economics and servicing-related income/fees based on how loans are sold and whether servicing is retained). NVR’s mortgage operations are closely tied to its homebuilding activity because many customers use its affiliated lender, which can support conversion of home orders to settlements and generate additional fee income. Key factors influencing earnings include housing demand, interest rates and mortgage availability, labor and materials costs, local regulatory/entitlement conditions, and the availability and pricing of finished lots/land (to the extent the company controls land through options and purchases), all of which affect both homebuilding margins and mortgage origination volumes.

NVR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year profitability, very high ROE, conservative and improving leverage, and solid cash conversion. The main drag is recent deterioration: 2025 profit and margins fell despite 13.3% revenue growth, and free cash flow declined meaningfully, signaling a tougher operating environment.

Income Statement

NVR shows strong profitability for a homebuilder, with consistently healthy gross and net margins across 2020–2025. However, performance has softened recently: 2025 revenue rose 13.3% but profits declined versus 2024, with net margin compressing from ~16.0% (2024) to ~13.0% (2025) and operating margin also stepping down. Revenue has been somewhat cyclical (notably a decline in 2023), but the multi-year earnings base remains solid.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled and trending better over time. Debt-to-equity improved meaningfully from ~0.53 (2021) to ~0.31 (2025), indicating a stronger capital position versus earlier years. Returns on equity are very high (generally ~29%–49% historically and ~34.7% in 2025), signaling strong profitability, though it also means results are sensitive to housing-cycle swings and recent profit compression.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow has consistently met or exceeded net income (about 1.19x in 2024–2025), and free cash flow closely tracks earnings (roughly ~0.98x of net income). The main weakness is momentum—free cash flow declined in 2023 and 2024 and fell more sharply in 2025 (down ~15.1%), which aligns with the recent margin and profit pressure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.32B	10.54B	9.53B	10.54B	8.96B
Gross Profit	2.37B	2.69B	2.48B	2.88B	2.20B
EBITDA	1.79B	2.16B	1.97B	2.31B	1.66B
Net Income	1.34B	1.68B	1.59B	1.73B	1.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.86B	6.38B	6.60B	5.66B	5.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.96B	2.61B	3.16B	2.52B	2.57B
Total Debt	1.20B	1.02B	1.01B	1.01B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	1.99B	2.17B	2.24B	2.15B	2.83B
Stockholders Equity	3.86B	4.21B	4.36B	3.51B	3.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.10B	1.35B	1.47B	1.85B	1.22B
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	1.37B	1.50B	1.87B	1.24B
Investing Cash Flow	-71.21M	-26.55M	-24.10M	-27.43M	-18.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-1.90B	-832.97M	-1.91B	-1.40B

NVR Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6596.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6596.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7152.35, below the 50-day MA of 7461.37, and below the 200-day MA of 7594.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -291.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.86 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVR.

NVR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TMHC	77 Outperform	$5.79B	8.21	12.83%	―	6.98%	9.74%
PHM	76 Outperform	$23.43B	10.46	17.51%	0.78%	1.76%	-4.24%
NVR	75 Outperform	$18.43B	15.79	34.29%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
DHI	73 Outperform	$41.18B	17.70	13.81%	1.14%	-6.93%	-19.41%
TOL	69 Neutral	$13.40B	16.39	16.86%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	57 Neutral	$23.82B	30.47	8.04%	1.91%	-3.78%	-44.21%