Neste (NTOIY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $26.24B
• Dividend Yield: 4.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 18.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: -6.60%
• EPS Growth: -121.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,408
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 1,538,422,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,546
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.45
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.86
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $22.05B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(62.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is driven primarily by only moderate financial performance (stabilizing profitability and improved free cash flow, but still low margins and higher leverage) and an earnings narrative that shows real operational momentum but notable 2026 and medium-term uncertainties. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, though overbought signals temper the rating, and valuation is a headwind given the high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Performance Improvement Program (PIP)

A realized EUR 376m run-rate from PIP demonstrates durable structural cost and margin improvements. Achieving targets ahead of schedule shows execution capability, permanently lowering the cost base and improving operating leverage, which supports sustainable cash generation and resilience through cycles.

Scale in renewable fuels (SAF & HVO)

Material volume growth in SAF and renewable products reflects structural market leadership and expanding production scale. Doubling SAF volumes strengthens customer relationships, supply credentials and contractability, enhancing revenue durability as aviation and transport decarbonization drives long-term demand.

Improved cash generation and deleveraging

Strong quarterly and annual cash flow indicates improving conversion of operations into free cash, enabling sustained capex funding, dividend payments and debt reduction. Improved cash generation increases financial flexibility to support the Rotterdam expansion and resilience against cyclical shocks.

Negative Factors

Compressed margins and weak profitability

Very low net margins leave limited buffer against adverse input costs or demand shocks and constrain long-term return generation. Persistently compressed margins reduce ROE, restrict reinvestment capacity, and mean performance is highly sensitive to feedstock and product price swings over the medium term.

Rising leverage and ongoing capex needs

Elevated leverage combined with sustained EUR 1.0–1.2bn annual capex guidance constrains balance sheet optionality. If margins remain low, higher debt levels limit capacity to invest opportunistically, increase refinancing and interest risks, and reduce headroom for strategic maneuvers during downturns.

Feedstock volatility and term‑contract overhang

Heavy use of term contracts (~60% of sales) and volatile, partly unhedgeable feedstock costs structurally limit margin upside when spot prices rise. This reduces pricing flexibility, increases earnings sensitivity to input-cost swings, and creates persistent margin volatility across planning horizons.

Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neste Oyj provides renewable and oil products in Finland and other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, North and South America, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services, and Others. The Renewable Products segment produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, renewable jet fuels and solutions, and renewable solvents, as well as raw material for bioplastics based on its technology to wholesale markets. The Oil Products segment produces, markets, and sells diesel fuel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, base oils, gasoline components, small engine gasoline, solvents, liquid gases, and bitumen. This segment serves retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, petrochemicals companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. The Marketing & Services segment markets and sells petroleum products and associated services to private motorists, industry, transport companies, farmers, and heating oil customers through a network of 947 service stations, as well as direct sales. The Others segment offers engineering and technology solutions. The company also manufactures raw materials for polymers and chemicals materials. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

How the Company Makes Money

Neste makes money primarily by producing and selling low-carbon renewable fuels and, to a smaller extent, refined petroleum products and related services. Its main revenue streams include: (1) Renewable Products: Neste manufactures hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and sells them to fuel distributors, oil companies, airlines, airports, and other end-users. Earnings in this segment are driven by sales volumes, the premium/market price for renewable fuels versus fossil alternatives, and policy-driven credits and mandates (e.g., blending obligations and other renewable fuel incentive mechanisms where applicable). A key economic factor is the spread between the selling price of renewable fuels (including any applicable regulatory credit value) and the cost of renewable feedstocks and hydrogen/energy used in production. (2) Renewable Feedstock for Polymers & Chemicals: Neste supplies renewable hydrocarbons and feedstock solutions (often marketed for use in plastics and chemical value chains) to petrochemical and chemical industry customers; revenue depends on contracted supply volumes and pricing that reflects both fossil reference prices and the customer’s willingness to pay for lower-carbon inputs and traceability. (3) Oil Products: Neste refines crude oil into conventional products (such as diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and other refinery outputs) and sells them through wholesale channels and its marketing network; profitability is tied to refining margins (crack spreads), utilization rates, and crude/product price differentials. (4) Marketing & Services/Other: The company also earns revenue from fuel retail/marketing (notably in its home region) and may generate income from trading/logistics and other supporting operations related to its supply chain and product distribution. Significant factors influencing earnings include access to and cost of waste and residue-based feedstocks, the ability to certify sustainability/traceability, capacity utilization at renewable and refining sites, and the regulatory environment in the markets where its products are sold. Specific named partnerships or contract counterparties are not available (null).

Neste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials have stabilized but remain weaker than the 2021–2023 peak: 2025 returned to modest profitability with compressed margins (net margin ~0.8%). Cash flow improved meaningfully (positive free cash flow ~$0.83B), but quality is variable. The balance sheet is still supported by a sizable equity base, though leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~0.71) and ROE is low (~1.9%), reducing flexibility if margins stay subdued.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated materially versus earlier years: 2025 revenue declined ~6.9% and margins compressed sharply (gross margin ~5.9%, operating margin ~1.8%, net margin ~0.8%). Results improved from 2024’s net loss, but earnings remain far below 2021–2023 levels when margins and net income were meaningfully stronger. Overall, the income statement reflects a company still profitable but with elevated volatility and a weaker recent trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains reasonably solid with equity still substantial (2025 equity ~$7.3B on ~$15.7B assets), but leverage has risen over time. Debt-to-equity increased from ~0.22–0.31 (2020–2022) to ~0.71 in 2025, reducing flexibility if profits stay subdued. Returns on equity also fell dramatically (about 1.9% in 2025 vs strong double-digits in 2021–2023), signaling weaker capital efficiency despite a still-meaningful equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed but improving: 2025 operating cash flow rose to ~$1.75B and free cash flow turned positive at ~$0.83B (up sharply from 2024’s negative free cash flow). However, cash conversion is not consistently strong—operating cash flow coverage is moderate (about 0.57 in 2025) and free cash flow is not tightly aligned with earnings year-to-year, reflecting variability in working capital/capex. Overall cash flow is supportive, but not yet consistently high-quality across the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.02B	20.64B	22.93B	25.71B	15.15B
Gross Profit	1.00B	2.05B	3.66B	3.42B	2.81B
EBITDA	1.28B	700.00M	2.58B	2.97B	2.59B
Net Income	138.32M	-95.00M	1.43B	1.89B	1.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.75B	15.58B	15.98B	14.92B	12.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.37B	955.00M	1.58B	1.27B	1.72B
Total Debt	5.18B	5.15B	4.07B	2.62B	1.76B
Total Liabilities	8.44B	8.16B	7.52B	6.59B	5.43B
Stockholders Equity	7.31B	7.42B	8.46B	8.32B	6.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	825.00M	-369.00M	849.00M	-546.00M	1.02B
Operating Cash Flow	1.75B	1.18B	2.28B	1.20B	1.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-949.01M	-1.50B	-1.53B	-1.59B	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-299.69M	-314.00M	-441.00M	-37.00M	-377.00M

Neste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.44, below the 50-day MA of 13.14, and above the 200-day MA of 10.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.55 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTOIY.

Neste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$70.32B	11.90	15.90%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
VLO	69 Neutral	$71.72B	10.87	9.88%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
MPC	68 Neutral	$68.54B	12.26	24.01%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
SUN	68 Neutral	$13.26B	13.57	7.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DINO	62 Neutral	$10.86B	14.84	6.25%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
NTOIY	59 Neutral	$26.24B	32.11	1.99%	4.38%	-6.60%	-121.65%