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Neste (NTOIY)
OTHER OTC:NTOIY
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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
53Neutral
Positive Factors
Cost Reduction
NESTE is narrowing its focus to Renewable Fuels to reduce costs and improve asset performance.
Leadership
New CEO's determination to improve NESTE's competitiveness.
Negative Factors
Financial Disclosures
Investors continue to struggle with forecasting NESTE quarterly performance, with more limited financial disclosures potentially creating unease.
Market Oversupply
A forecast of continued market oversupply could continue to compress RP margins.
SAF Demand Outlook
NESTE downgraded its 2025 SAF demand outlook.
Neste (NTOIY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.03B
Dividend Yield3.32%
Average Volume (3M)62.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth-9.92%
EPS Growth-106.31%
CountryUS
Employees5,381
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength50
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.06
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume62,278
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside74.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNeste (NTOIY) is a Finland-based company operating in the energy sector, primarily focusing on the production and marketing of renewable diesel and other sustainable energy solutions. The company is a global leader in renewable fuels, producing high-quality products that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Neste's core products include renewable diesel, renewable aviation fuel, and renewable polymers and chemicals. The company also engages in the refining and marketing of oil products, serving customers across various industries worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyNeste makes money through several key revenue streams. The primary source of revenue is the production and sale of renewable diesel and other renewable products. The company has developed a proprietary NEXBTL technology, which allows it to convert various feedstocks, such as waste and residues, into renewable products. Neste markets its renewable diesel to transportation companies, logistics firms, and other businesses aiming to lower their carbon footprint. Additionally, Neste generates revenue from its oil products segment, which includes the refining and sale of traditional petroleum products. The company has significant partnerships with airlines and other corporations seeking sustainable aviation fuel solutions, which further contribute to its earnings. Neste’s strategic efforts to expand its renewable product offerings and geographical presence have been key factors driving its financial performance.
Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Neste is facing financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability in 2024. The balance sheet is strong with moderate leverage, but the decline in equity and negative free cash flow are concerning. Improvements are needed for long-term growth.Income Statement
Neste's revenue has fluctuated significantly over the years, with a notable decline in 2024 compared to 2023. The gross profit margin decreased from 16% in 2023 to 6.1% in 2024, and the net profit margin turned negative in 2024, indicating profitability challenges. However, the company maintained positive EBITDA margins, though they have decreased significantly. The sharp drop in revenue and profitability indicates potential operational issues or market challenges.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Despite a challenging year in 2024, Neste maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69, showcasing moderate leverage. The equity ratio remains healthy at 47.6%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to assets. However, the decline in stockholders' equity from the previous year raises concerns about long-term financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Neste's operating cash flow declined in 2024 but remains positive, indicating some operational resilience. Free cash flow turned negative, highlighting issues with capital expenditures and cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful due to the negative net income, and the free cash flow to net income ratio further underscores cash flow challenges.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B | 11.74B | Gross Profit |
| 1.27B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B | 1.81B | EBIT |
| 25.00M | 1.68B | 2.41B | 2.02B | 828.00M | EBITDA |
| 43.00M | 2.58B | 2.97B | 2.59B | 1.51B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B | 712.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B | 1.57B | Total Assets |
| 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B | 9.81B | Total Debt |
| 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B | 1.31B | Net Debt |
| 4.19B | 2.49B | 1.34B | 175.00M | -246.00M | Total Liabilities |
| 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B | 3.89B | Stockholders Equity |
| 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B | 5.92B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B | 1.29B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B | 2.06B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B | -1.04B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M | -961.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Negative
4.59
Price Trends
4.74
Negative
5.64
Negative
7.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
50.79
Neutral
98.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.36, below the 50-day MA of 4.74, and below the 200-day MA of 7.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $8.97B | 9.80 | 28.38% | 5.98% | -1.63% | 80.11% | |
67 Neutral | $5.75B | 33.54 | 1.78% | 6.54% | -10.58% | -90.08% | |
67 Neutral | $42.36B | 20.96 | 7.27% | 4.39% | -2.81% | -68.00% | |
67 Neutral | $42.85B | 13.63 | 16.33% | 2.52% | -6.70% | -57.85% | |
58 Neutral | $35.66B | 39.92 | 3.73% | 3.83% | -8.44% | -85.95% | |
55 Neutral | $7.11B | 3.51 | -6.23% | 6.00% | >-0.01% | -51.70% | |
53 Neutral | $7.03B | 19.07 | -1.15% | 3.32% | -9.92% | -106.31% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NTOIY
Neste
4.54
-7.06
-60.86%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
30.51
-24.14
-44.17%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
137.44
-56.82
-29.25%
PSX
Phillips 66
103.97
-42.38
-28.96%
VLO
Valero Energy
113.87
-47.15
-29.28%
SUN
Sunoco
58.92
5.82
10.96%
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -21.81% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call presented a challenging financial year for Neste with unsatisfactory performance metrics, operational difficulties, and significant market challenges. While there were efforts to expand and capture new markets, the lowlights outweighed the highlights, leading to a negative sentiment.Highlights
Increased Renewable Product Sales Volume
The sales volume for renewable products increased in Q4 2024, though it could have been higher without operational issues. SAF volume also increased significantly.
Expansion Initiatives
Neste continued to progress with its investments, such as the second line in Singapore and conversion in Rotterdam, which will begin SAF production in Q1 2025.
New Market Entrants
Neste sold its first volumes to Canada and announced a significant deal there.
Lowlights
Unsatisfactory Financial Performance
The financial performance for 2024 was deemed unsatisfactory and unsustainable, with a notable decrease in comparable EBITDA to €1.25 billion.
Operational Challenges
Operational issues occurred in facilities in Singapore and Rotterdam, leading to missed production targets and impacting margins.
Decline in Sales Margin
The comparable sales margin for renewable products dropped significantly from $813 to $242.
Significant Cost Overruns
The Rotterdam expansion faced cost overruns of approximately 30%.
Planned Workforce Reductions
The company announced it would initiate change negotiations to reduce its fixed cost base, implying workforce reductions.
Company Guidance
During the Neste Q4 and Full Year 2024 Results Webcast, the company provided guidance for 2025, indicating that the renewable products and oil products sales volumes are expected to be higher than in 2024. However, the renewable fuels market is anticipated to be oversupplied and challenging. The group full-year 2025 CapEx is estimated to be between €1.1 billion and €1.3 billion, excluding M&A. The company plans a five-week turnaround in Rotterdam in Q4 and a six-week turnaround in Singapore starting mid-December. The performance improvement program targets a €350 million EBITDA run rate increase, with €250 million from operational cost reductions. These efforts aim to maintain leverage below 40% and support Neste's financial targets for 2025 and 2026.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.