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National Bank of Canada (NTIOF)
OTHER OTC:NTIOF
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Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
National Bank has several levers of earnings growth to pull, including CWB revenue, cost, and funding synergies, a recovery of Corporate and Investment Banking, and the eventual deployment of capital towards a share buyback program.
Financial Performance
National Bank reported Q2 results with earnings strength primarily driven by Financial Markets revenue.
Negative Factors
Credit Challenges
Higher than expected PCLs indicate potential challenges, with the highest quarterly PCL rate since Q1/11 outside of COVID and Oil & Gas sectorals.
Valuation Concerns
NA is trading at a higher NTM P/E ratio of 12.6x compared to peers at 11.6x, leading to a HOLD rating based on valuation concerns.
National Bank of Canada (NTIOF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.19B
Dividend Yield3.28%
Average Volume (3M)62.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees29,508
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength81
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.08
Shares Outstanding391,340,760
10 Day Avg. Volume69,197
30 Day Avg. Volume62,963
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-12.06
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$102.51Price Target Upside4.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
National Bank of Canada Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Bank of Canada provides various financial products and services to retail, commercial, corporate, and institutional clients in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management, Financial Markets, and U.S. Specialty Finance and International. The Personal and Commercial segment offers personal banking services, including transaction solutions, mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit, consumer loans, payment solutions, and savings and investment solutions; various insurance products; and commercial banking services comprise credit, and deposit and investment solutions, as well as international trade, foreign exchange transactions, payroll, cash management, insurance, electronic transactions, and complimentary services. The Wealth Management segment comprises investment solutions, trust services, banking services, lending services, and other wealth management solutions. The Financial Markets segment offers corporate banking, advisory, and capital markets services; and project financing, debt, and equity underwriting; advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, and financing. The U.S. Specialty Finance and International segment provides specialty finance products; financial products and services to individuals and businesses in Cambodia; and investment solutions, guaranteed investment certificates, mutual funds, notes, structured products, and monetization. It provides its services through a network of 384 branches and 927 banking machines. National Bank of Canada was founded in 1859 and is based in Montreal, Canada.
How the Company Makes Money
National Bank of Canada Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.33%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with notable growth in earnings, successful integration of CWB, and robust financial market activities. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and increased credit provisions pose challenges. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive sentiment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Earnings and Return on Equity Growth
The company reported an earnings per share of $2.85, up 12% year-over-year, and a return on equity of 15.6%.
Successful CWB Acquisition
The integration of CWB is progressing well, with cost and funding synergies ahead of schedule, contributing $298 million to revenues and $155 million to expenses.
Strong Financial Markets Performance
Financial markets generated net income of more than $500 million this quarter, benefitting from volatility and high trading volumes.
Wealth Management Growth
Wealth Management grew net income by 15% year-over-year, with strong organic growth and double-digit fee-based revenue growth.
Robust Capital Position
The CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.4%, allowing support for business growth, and a quarterly dividend was raised by $0.04.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Total loans reached $286 billion, up 22% year-over-year, and deposits grew 23% compared to last year.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Uncertainty related to global trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and high long-term interest rates continue to affect forecasts for growth and inflation.
Increased Credit Provisions
Total provisions for credit losses were $545 million, reflecting initial provisions from the CWB transaction and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Negative Operating Leverage in Wealth Management
Wealth Management experienced negative operating leverage due to the integration of CWB's Wealth business.
Pressure on P&C NIM
P&C NIM was impacted by the balance sheet mix as loan growth exceeded deposit growth, with a trend expected to continue in Q3.
Company Guidance
During National Bank of Canada's second-quarter results conference call for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and guidance were discussed. The bank reported a 12% year-over-year increase in earnings per share, reaching $2.85, and a return on equity of 15.6%. Organic growth was highlighted across business segments, with financial markets generating net income exceeding $500 million, supported by strong client activity and market volatility. The bank's CET1 ratio stood at 13.4%, and they announced a $0.04 increase in quarterly dividends. The integration of Canadian Western Bank (CWB) was progressing well, contributing $298 million to revenues and $155 million to expenses. P&C Banking saw net income of $316 million, with commercial book growth of 14% and personal mortgages up 4% year-over-year. Wealth Management experienced a 15% increase in net income, while Credigy and ABA Bank also reported strong performances. The bank anticipates mid-single-digit EPS growth for the year, maintaining an adjusted ROE of approximately 15%, and expects positive operating leverage in 2025. Additionally, they are on track to deliver $270 million in cost and funding synergies by the end of fiscal 2027, with $135 million expected by Q1 2026.National Bank of Canada Financial Statement Overview
Summary
The National Bank of Canada demonstrates robust revenue growth and profitability with a strong net profit margin of 24.4% and impressive ROE of 14.74%. However, the balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.19, and cash flow indicates some pressure on free cash generation, suggesting areas for improvement in cost management and leverage reduction.Income Statement
The National Bank of Canada shows robust revenue growth with a consistent increase in total revenue over the periods. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a healthy gross profit margin of 127.8%, and a solid net profit margin of 24.4%. While EBIT margin is 7.82%, the absence of EBITDA data limits a complete analysis. Revenue growth remains strong, indicating effective market strategies and operations, although the decrease in EBIT from earlier periods suggests potential cost pressures.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.19, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 14.74%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio stands at 5.45%, showing a stable financial foundation, though the high leverage could pose risks in volatile market conditions.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis highlights a decline in free cash flow growth, but the company maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.70, suggesting efficient cash management relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.57 indicates some pressure on free cash generation relative to profits, potentially due to capital expenditure and investment activities.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 11.63B | 11.41B | 9.77B | 9.62B | 8.90B | 11.12B | Gross Profit |
| 11.93B | 11.41B | 10.16B | 9.62B | 8.90B | 7.90B | EBIT |
| 3.54B | 5.06B | 4.64B | 4.69B | 4.44B | 3.09B | EBITDA |
| 1.35B | 5.06B | 0.00 | 4.73B | 4.46B | 2.96B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 3.89B | 3.82B | 3.34B | 3.38B | 3.14B | 2.04B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 15.22B | 35.75B | 39.14B | 36.34B | 36.81B | 34.71B | Total Assets |
| 281.46B | 462.23B | 423.58B | 403.74B | 355.62B | 331.63B | Total Debt |
| 41.91B | 74.78B | 53.51B | 44.88B | 43.64B | 36.49B | Net Debt |
| 28.21B | 43.23B | 18.28B | 13.01B | 9.76B | 7.35B | Total Liabilities |
| 266.32B | 436.68B | 399.90B | 381.99B | 336.94B | 315.24B | Stockholders Equity |
| 14.78B | 25.55B | 23.68B | 21.74B | 18.68B | 16.38B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 2.20B | 3.95B | 4.51B | -2.59B | 5.55B | 19.47B | Operating Cash Flow |
| -1.01B | 4.65B | 5.17B | -1.92B | 9.31B | 19.98B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -7.46B | -7.34B | -80.00M | -1.46B | 1.39B | -3.35B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 24.53B | -1.10B | 19.51B | -381.00M | -1.74B | 25.08B |
National Bank of Canada Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38.19B | 12.85 | 13.42% | 3.28% | ― | ― | ||
77 Outperform | $78.09B | 14.00 | 9.88% | 4.16% | 15.63% | 66.95% | |
64 Neutral | $12.86B | 9.79 | 7.78% | 16985.65% | 12.28% | -7.82% | |
| $67.22B | 15.14 | 8.00% | 5.64% | ― | ― | ||
| $64.35B | 12.03 | 13.19% | 3.90% | ― | ― | ||
| $179.95B | 14.13 | 14.17% | 3.26% | ― | ― | ||
| $123.09B | 10.28 | 14.27% | 4.22% | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NTIOF
National Bank of Canada
98.44
15.90
19.26%
BMO
Bank Of Montreal
108.05
27.56
34.24%
BNS
Bank Of Nova Scotia
54.07
10.42
23.87%
CM
Canadian Bank of Commerce
68.71
22.17
47.64%
RY
Royal Bank Of Canada
127.61
25.05
24.42%
TD
Toronto Dominion Bank
70.09
17.66
33.68%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.