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NN Group (NNGRY)
OTHER OTC:NNGRY
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NN Group
(OTC:NNGRY)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(1.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent cash generation and highly volatile revenues, despite solid profitability. The latest earnings call was constructive with strong solvency and stepped-up shareholder returns, while technicals remain bearish and valuation is supported by a moderate P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Solvency Capital
A very strong Solvency II ratio (≈220%) and elevated NL Life solvency (233%) give durable regulatory headroom. This capital strength supports sustained underwriting capacity, enables steady capital returns and strategic flexibility to invest or absorb shocks without immediate balance-sheet strain.
Commercial Momentum in Growth Segments
Consistent new-business value and premium growth across Europe, Japan and Netherlands non-life/DC channels indicate durable organic growth drivers. Strong VNB and inflows create a multi-year earnings stream that supports future operating capital generation and diversification of revenue sources.
Digital and AI-driven Efficiency Gains
Material digital adoption and 236 AI use cases have improved distribution and claims processing efficiency. These structural productivity gains should sustainably lower unit costs, improve conversion and scalability, and support margin expansion over multiple years as benefits scale.
Negative Factors
Weak and Inconsistent Cash Generation
Persistently negative operating and free cash flow reduces self-funding ability and raises reliance on capital markets or balance-sheet measures to finance growth and returns. Over time this constrains reinvestment, increases refinancing risk and lowers the buffer against cyclical insurance or market shocks.
Severe Revenue Volatility
Large year-to-year revenue swings and non-recurring drivers create low visibility into sustainable top-line trends. This volatility complicates pricing, reserve-setting and capital planning, increasing the chance that one-off effects or IFRS revaluations can materially swing reported results.
Rising Leverage Trend
The upward drift in leverage reduces financial flexibility at a time when cash generation is weak. Higher debt-to-equity raises refinancing and rating sensitivity, limiting capacity for opportunistic investment or shock absorption and making capital returns more contingent on volatile cash flows.
NN Group (NNGRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.18B
Dividend Yield5.25%
Average Volume (3M)1.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.4
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-15.10%
EPS Growth10.94%
CountryUS
Employees13,497
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.71
Shares Outstanding526,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume1,353
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.58
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)6.48
P/FCF Ratio-8.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.76
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)4.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.94B
NN Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNN Group N.V., a financial services company, primarily provides life insurance products in the Netherlands and internationally. The company operates through Netherlands Life, Netherlands Non-life, Insurance Europe, Japan Life, Banking, and Other segments. It offers group and individual life insurance, and pension products; non-life insurance products, including motor, fire, liability, transport, travel, and disability and accident insurance; employee benefits, and health insurance products; corporate-owned life insurance products; and single premium variable annuity individual life insurance products. The company also provides banking services, including mortgage loans, online savings accounts, bank annuities, consumer lending, and retail investment products, as well as administration and management services; reinsurance services; and retirement products and services. It offers its products to individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, retail customers, and institutional customers directly, as well as through tied agents, bancassurance partners, brokers, and direct channels. The company was formerly known as ING Insurance Topholding N.V. and changed its name to NN Group N.V. in March 2014. NN Group N.V. was founded in 1845 and is headquartered in the Hague, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyNN Group generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, it earns income from premiums collected on its life and non-life insurance products, which include health, property, and casualty insurance. The company also generates revenue from asset management fees charged for managing investments on behalf of clients, which include pension funds and retail investors. Additionally, NN Group benefits from investment income derived from the assets it holds in its investment portfolio. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and distribution channels enhance its reach and customer base, contributing to its overall financial performance.
NN Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showed strong commercial execution and financial delivery in 2025 with multiple measurable wins: OCG and free cash flow outperformance, a very robust Solvency II ratio, tangible AI/digital progress, and an enhanced, recurring shareholder return program. Key growth segments (Insurance Europe, Japan, Netherlands Non-life and DC inflows) delivered meaningful expansion in volumes and margins. Offsetting factors include a material disability reserve strengthening and repricing actions, some bank margin pressure, non-recurring tailwinds in 2025 that may not repeat, and non-operational IFRS volatility from certain bond and derivative revaluations. On balance, the positive operational and capital developments materially outweigh the challenges, though management flagged areas of transitory risk and one-off items that may temper near-term comparables.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded 2025 Financial Targets
Operating Capital Generation (OCG) of EUR 2.1 billion, up 9% versus 2024, and Free Cash Flow slightly above the EUR 1.6 billion target, up 7% year-on-year, outperforming stated 2025 objectives.
Very Strong Solvency and Capital Position
Group Solvency II ratio at 220% and Netherlands Life solvency increased from 200% to 233%, with improved quality of capital after removing the unit-linked overhang.
Enhanced Shareholder Returns
Additional capital return of EUR 100 million split equally between a EUR 50 million step-up in the annual share buyback (now EUR 350 million) and a EUR 50 million dividend increase; Dividend per share raised by 13% to EUR 3.88. NN Group has returned over EUR 11 billion to shareholders since IPO.
Commercial Momentum in Growth Segments
Insurance Europe New Business Value (VNB) up 16% vs 2024; Japan VNB up 25% vs 2024 (approx. 30% currency-adjusted) and 34% when comparing from Q2 onwards; Netherlands Non-life gross written premium up 6%, surpassing EUR 4 billion for the first time; Netherlands Life DC inflows of EUR 2.6 billion.
Future Ready / AI Progress and Digital Sales
236 AI use cases implemented, 42% of sales come from digital leads, and 40% of the EUR 200 million annual benefit target (i.e., ~EUR 80 million run rate) realized by end-2025—demonstrating measurable digital productivity gains.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Third-party car liability claims processing automated end-to-end—processing time reduced from 1–3 days to minutes. AI avatars train >9,000 tied agents (boosting conversion) and AIReply rolled out to improve email response efficiency in Dutch units.
Segmental Operating Trends & Outlook
OCG growth by segment: Netherlands Life +13% (benefiting from positive experience and higher investment returns in 2025), Europe +13% (higher sales and margins), Netherlands Non-life +9% (reported) and Japan +8% (despite limitations on deferring acquisition costs). 2028 targets reiterated: OCG EUR 2.2 billion and Free Cash Flow > EUR 1.8 billion.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity Actions
Holding cash capital increased to EUR 1.8 billion then pro-forma EUR 1.6 billion after RT1 repayment; RT1 notes redeemed Jan 2026. Intend not to refinance EUR 600 million senior debt maturing 2027; residual excess cash potential ~EUR 500 million (2025–2028) after announced returns and deleveraging.
Negative Updates
Disability (D&A) Deterioration and Reserve Strengthening
Deterioration in disability in H2 2025 (linked to long COVID and increased mental-health claims) led to reserve strengthening and repricing actions (more frequent repricing cycles). Disability was a notable weak point within an otherwise within-target combined ratio.
Combined Ratio & Non-Recurring Tailwinds
Overall combined ratio at 92.9% (within 91%–93% target) but P&C at 90.3% and disability lagged. Management acknowledged 2025 benefited from nonstructural tailwinds (benign weather, favorable reinsurance renewals and market effects) that may not repeat, contributing to guidance of a flat reported OCG in 2026.
Bank NIM Compression and Lower Bank OCG
Bank contributed less to OCG driven by net interest margin (NIM) compression; bank operating generation expected roughly stable in 2026 but remains a drag versus other segments.
IFRS/Non-Operating Volatility and One-offs
Net result decreased due to revaluations on derivatives outside hedge accounting, realized losses from certain bond sales (including U.S. bond sales in Dutch Life), and final accounting from the Turkish sale—creating non-economic volatility in reported IFRS results.
Market & Spread Tightness
Mortgage spreads tightened to ~75 basis points (versus normalized through-the-cycle ~100 bps), indicating tighter spreads across asset classes which could limit future spread income upside.
Expectation of Reduced Life OCG in 2026
Netherlands Life OCG benefited in 2025 from positive experience variances; management expects absence of those positive variances in 2026 and therefore a modest decrease in Life OCG versus 2025.
Accounting Method Adjustment Impact
Change in treatment of non-available own funds increased group solvency by ~4–5 percentage points (aligning with peers), but this is an eligibility/methodology change rather than pure operating performance and does not change local statutory solvency or remittance capacity.
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management expects flat reported OCG in 2026 after strong 2025 results (OCG €2.1bn, +9% y/y vs a €1.9bn target) and free cash flow slightly above the €1.6bn target (+7% y/y), while reiterating 2028 targets of OCG €2.2bn and free cash flow >€1.8bn; solvency remains robust (group Solvency II ~220%, NN Life ~233%), holding cash was ~€1.8bn at year‑end (pro‑forma ~€1.6bn after RT1 repayment) with a preferred holding range of €0.5–1.5bn, and operating capital generation in H2 was ~€1.1bn (adding ~13pp to solvency) while market variance added ~7pp; capital returns are being stepped up by €100m (split €50m extra dividend raising DPS to €3.88, +13%, and €50m higher buyback to €350m), >€11bn returned since IPO, management won’t refinance a €600m 2027 senior note and expects ~€1.5bn excess cash potential over 2025–28 (with ~€400m+ allocated to shareholders and ~€500m residual for value‑creating opportunities); growth and operational metrics include 236 AI use cases and 42% of sales from digital leads (40% of the €200m/yr 2027 run‑rate benefits realized by end‑2025), Insurance Europe VNB +16% y/y (decade avg ~12% annual new business growth), Japan VNB +25% (≈+30% FX‑adj) targeting recovery to 2022 VNB (JPY20bn) by 2028, Netherlands Non‑life GWP +6% to >€4bn with combined ratio 92.9% (P&C 90.3%), Netherlands Life DC inflows €2.6bn and immediate annuity gross inflow ~€0.8bn in 2025 (CAGR 10–15% to ~€1.4bn by 2030; annuity AUM target ~€10bn and >€65bn total AUM with a 15–20bp OCG margin by 2028).NN Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Reported profitability is strong and the balance sheet looks generally manageable, but the financial profile is weighed down by extreme revenue volatility (sharp 2025 decline) and consistently negative operating/free cash flow in most years shown—reducing confidence in earnings quality and self-funding capacity.Income Statement
Profitability looks strong on the latest annual print, with a high net margin (~40%) and solid operating profitability. That said, results are not stable: revenue fell sharply in 2025 (down ~79% year over year) after modest growth in 2024, and the prior history includes an unusually weak 2022 revenue level (negative reported revenue) versus much higher revenue in 2020–2021 and 2023–2024. Overall, earnings power appears meaningful, but the top-line trajectory and year-to-year volatility reduce confidence in the quality and repeatability of reported performance.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears manageable for a large diversified insurer, with debt-to-equity around ~0.81 in 2025 (up from ~0.53 in 2024, and higher than 2020–2021 levels). Equity remains sizable (~$19.1B) against a very large asset base (~$204.8B). Returns on equity are positive but not high (~6% in 2025), suggesting adequate but not exceptional capital efficiency. The main weakness is the upward drift in leverage versus the recent prior year, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility if profitability or cash generation softens.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the key weak spot: operating cash flow is negative in most years shown (including 2025 at about -$2.25B and 2024 at about -$0.40B), with free cash flow also negative across those periods. The only clearly strong year is 2020, when operating cash flow was robust and positive. The overall pattern points to high variability and limited consistency in cash conversion, raising risk around the sustainability of earnings and the company’s ability to self-fund without relying on balance-sheet capacity in weaker cash-flow periods.28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.94B | 2.88B | 11.02B | 10.81B | -833.00M | 19.01B |
| Gross Profit | 13.94B | 2.88B | 11.66B | 11.40B | -418.00M | 17.70B |
| EBITDA | 0.00 | 1.45B | 3.40B | 2.72B | 1.38B | 4.50B |
| Net Income | 1.33B | 1.14B | 1.58B | 1.17B | 1.63B | 3.28B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 206.11B | 204.82B | 210.38B | 208.94B | 217.11B | 251.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 110.64B | 6.40B | 112.98B | 8.21B | 88.56B | 114.81B |
| Total Debt | 13.31B | 15.40B | 11.53B | 14.10B | 15.40B | 12.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 184.38B | 185.66B | 188.72B | 187.82B | 199.28B | 216.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.64B | 19.07B | 21.57B | 21.04B | 21.03B | 34.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 249.00M | -2.25B | -401.00M | 62.00M | -8.22B | -2.64B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 249.00M | -2.25B | -401.00M | 62.00M | -8.18B | -2.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.10B | 1.06B | 2.56B | 4.53B | 6.08B | -1.83B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -393.00M | 762.66M | -3.41B | -2.99B | 1.76B | -741.00M |
NN Group Technical Analysis
Negative
38.54
Price Trends
39.42
Negative
37.94
Negative
35.84
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.45
Positive
42.04
Neutral
46.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NNGRY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.18, below the 50-day MA of 39.42, and above the 200-day MA of 35.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NNGRY.
NN Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $36.59B | 10.14 | 21.37% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
73 Outperform | $18.45B | 16.80 | 10.26% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $10.32B | 4.30 | 14.36% | 5.77% | -6.19% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $39.91B | 15.62 | 7.50% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
58 Neutral | $19.18B | 16.35 | 6.14% | 5.25% | -15.10% | 10.94% | |
46 Neutral | $10.47B | 15.82 | -152.32% | 2.15% | 7.70% | -155.12% |
* Financial Sector Average
NNGRY
NN Group
37.93
11.90
45.74%
AEG
Aegon
6.81
0.56
8.96%
AIG
American International Group
74.39
-6.96
-8.56%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
132.65
15.37
13.10%
PFG
Principal Financial
85.07
4.91
6.13%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
37.35
-13.99
-27.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.