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Natural Gas Services Group (NGS)
NYSE:NGS

Natural Gas Services Group (NGS) AI Stock Analysis

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Natural Gas Services Group

(NYSE:NGS)

79Outperform
Natural Gas Services Group shows strong financial performance with robust growth and efficient cash management. While the technical indicators suggest caution, the valuation is reasonable, and recent corporate developments, including positive earnings guidance, enhance the company's prospects. The combination of financial health, strategic management, and promising growth outlook makes the stock a strong contender in its industry.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
NGS introduced 2025 EBITDA guidance of $74M-$78M, which is higher than the previous year, indicating positive growth expectations.
Market Demand
There is a strong demand for larger natural gas compressors, which is expected to drive higher rental prices.
Operational Performance
The higher adjusted gross margin led to 4Q24 EBITDA exceeding estimates, showing strong operational performance.
Negative Factors
Capital Expenditure
Natural Gas Services Group plans to increase capital expenditures in 2025 by at least 20% due to rising demand.

Natural Gas Services Group (NGS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Natural Gas Services Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNatural Gas Services Group, Inc. provides natural gas compression services and equipment to the energy industry in the United States. It fabricates, manufactures, rents, and sells natural gas compressors and related equipment. The company primarily engages in the rental of compression units that provide small, medium, and large horsepower applications for unconventional oil and natural gas production. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,023 natural gas compression units in its rental fleet with 418,041 horsepower. The company also engages in the design, fabrication, and assembly of compressor components into compressor units for rental or sale; engineers and fabricates natural gas compressors; and designs and manufactures a line of reciprocating compressor frames, cylinders, and parts. In addition, it is involved in the design, fabrication, sale, installation, and service of flare stacks and related ignition and control devices for the onshore and offshore incineration of gas compounds, such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gases. Further, the company offers customer support services for its compressor and flare sales business; and exchange and rebuild program for small horsepower screw compressors. Its primary customers are exploration and production(E&P) companies that utilize compressor units for artificial lift applications; E&P companies that focuses on natural gas-weighted production; and midstream companies. Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatural Gas Services Group primarily makes money through the rental and sales of natural gas compression equipment. The company's revenue model is based on long-term rental agreements with clients, providing a stable and recurring revenue stream. Additionally, NGS earns revenue from the sales of its compression units and related aftermarket services, such as maintenance and repair. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for natural gas, advancements in extraction technologies, and its ability to maintain strong relationships with key players in the energy sector.

Natural Gas Services Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Natural Gas Services Group exhibits strong financial health across all statements. The income statement highlights robust revenue and profit growth, the balance sheet shows excellent leverage management, and cash flow demonstrates strong cash generation capabilities. The company's strategic financial management positions it well for future growth and stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The company's income statement shows strong growth and profitability. Gross profit margin increased significantly to 56.13%, and net profit margin improved to 10.99% in 2024. Revenue growth is robust, with a 29.35% increase from 2023 to 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient operations.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position. The company has eliminated its total debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, enhancing financial stability. Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 6.75%, and the equity ratio is strong at 51.79%, indicating good leverage management and a solid equity base.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
Cash flow metrics are excellent, with significant improvement in free cash flow from negative in 2023 to $69.15 million in 2024. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.86, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate is impressive, showcasing efficient cash management.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
156.74M121.17M84.83M72.42M68.06M
Gross Profit
87.99M32.16M14.35M1.66M7.43M
EBIT
33.33M10.46M431.00K-8.63M-2.68M
EBITDA
64.94M37.25M24.44M13.68M22.23M
Net Income Common Stockholders
17.23M4.75M-569.00K-9.18M1.81M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.14M2.75M3.37M22.94M28.93M
Total Assets
492.53M478.73M328.25M298.51M306.80M
Total Debt
170.15M164.00M25.35M285.00K900.00K
Net Debt
168.01M161.25M21.98M-22.66M-28.02M
Total Liabilities
237.47M242.84M98.17M62.60M55.26M
Stockholders Equity
255.06M235.89M230.08M235.91M251.54M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
69.15M-135.91M-37.36M2.82M17.39M
Operating Cash Flow
66.46M18.03M27.76M28.53M32.65M
Investing Cash Flow
-71.44M-153.89M-65.08M-25.66M-15.16M
Financing Cash Flow
4.37M135.23M17.82M-8.85M-157.00K

Natural Gas Services Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price18.52
Price Trends
50DMA
23.43
Negative
100DMA
25.08
Negative
200DMA
22.66
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.75
Negative
RSI
42.95
Neutral
STOCH
39.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.93, below the 50-day MA of 23.43, and below the 200-day MA of 22.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NGS.

Natural Gas Services Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NGNGS
79
Outperform
$227.74M13.457.02%29.36%261.48%
FTFTK
71
Outperform
$191.49M18.959.73%-0.55%-74.83%
70
Outperform
$281.45M15.216.74%1.71%-10.29%-14.30%
TTTTI
64
Neutral
$304.51M2.8256.37%-4.34%312.14%
FEFET
57
Neutral
$175.15M-36.95%10.50%-493.15%
57
Neutral
$7.56B4.34-4.83%6.50%-0.19%-64.60%
OIOIS
53
Neutral
$210.24M-1.62%-11.47%-187.17%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
18.52
-5.44
-22.70%
FTK
Flotek
6.42
2.90
82.39%
FET
Forum Energy Tech
14.16
-5.39
-27.57%
OIS
Oil States International
3.45
-2.39
-40.92%
TTI
Tetra Technologies
2.30
-2.16
-48.43%
RNGR
Ranger Energy Services
12.25
1.21
10.96%

Natural Gas Services Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 17, 2025 | % Change Since: -21.63% | Next Earnings Date: May 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial growth and improved asset utilization, with significant increases in rented horsepower and rental revenue. The company provided optimistic guidance for 2025, indicating continued growth. However, the lowlights include a decline in sales adjusted gross margin and challenges with fabrication operations. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment is positive due to the strong growth trajectory and improved financial metrics.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Growth in Rented Horsepower
Closed 2024 with almost 492,000 rented horsepower, a 17% growth over last year and 55% over two years. Horsepower utilization improved to 82.1% from 80.8% in 2023 and 74.8% in 2022.
Significant Increase in Rental Revenue
Rental revenue in 2024 was $144.2 million, up 36% from 2023 and 94% from 2022. Rental adjusted gross margin in 2024 was 60.5%, which is 650 basis points higher than 2023 and more than 1,000 basis points higher than 2022.
Strong Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA reported as $69.5 million in 2024, a 52% increase from 2023 and 138% from 2022. Net income for the quarter was $2.9 million, up 68% year-on-year.
Improved Asset Utilization
Successfully reduced accounts receivable by $23.6 million, with days sales outstanding dropping from nearly 100 days at year-end 2023 to 35 days at year-end 2024.
Strong Guidance for 2025
Guiding to adjusted EBITDA in the range of $74 million to $78 million, representing just under a 10% increase over 2024. Growth CapEx expected between $95 million to $120 million.
Lowlights
Decline in Sales Adjusted Gross Margin
Sales adjusted gross margin declined year-on-year by $1.1 million and sequentially by $0.3 million, driven by the shift away from fabrication of new compressor packages and the announced termination of activities at the Midland, Texas facility.
Challenges with Fabrication Operations
Announced the termination of fabrication and assembly activities at the Midland, Texas facility, impacting sales gross profit and accompanied by an intangible asset impairment.
Company Guidance
During the Natural Gas Services Group's Q4 2024 earnings call held on March 18, 2025, the company provided optimistic guidance for growth in 2025 and 2026. The CEO, Justin Jacobs, highlighted significant metrics such as a rental revenue increase of 36% year-over-year to $144.2 million, with rented horsepower growing by 17% from 2023 and 55% since 2022. The adjusted EBITDA rose by 52% to $69.5 million in 2024 compared to 2023. The company expects to see continued growth with guidance for adjusted EBITDA in 2025 ranging from $74 million to $78 million, representing a nearly 10% increase over 2024. Additionally, the growth CapEx for 2025 is projected between $95 million to $120 million, primarily for large horsepower units under contract, indicating a substantial increase from previous years. Horsepower utilization improved to 82.1%, and the company plans to deploy a significant portion of its fleet in the second half of 2025, with expectations of entering 2026 as a significantly larger business.

Natural Gas Services Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Natural Gas Services Group Appoints New Board Member
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

On April 1, 2025, Natural Gas Services Group appointed J. Anthony Gallegos, Jr. to its Board of Directors, filling the vacancy left by David Bradshaw’s retirement in December 2024. Mr. Gallegos, with over 30 years of experience in the drilling industry, brings significant expertise to the Board, serving on the Audit and Safety & Sustainability Committees. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s strategic direction and shareholder value as NGS continues to focus on growth and innovation in the natural gas compression sector.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Natural Gas Services Group Reports Strong 2024 Financials
Positive
Mar 19, 2025

Natural Gas Services Group reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, with significant growth in revenue, net cash from operations, and adjusted EBITDA. The company achieved a 17% increase in rented horsepower compared to the previous year and a 55% increase over two years, reflecting a strategic focus on large horsepower compression. Rental revenue rose by 36% from 2023 and 94% from 2022, driven by an upgraded fleet and higher pricing. The company also improved its asset utilization, reducing accounts receivable and increasing cash flow to fund growth. Looking ahead, Natural Gas Services Group anticipates continued growth in 2025 and 2026, with plans to expand its large horsepower rented fleet and capitalize on market opportunities.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.