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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
NYSE:NFG
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National Fuel Gas Company
(NYSE:NFG)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$104.00
▲(12.55% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven mainly by solid but uneven financial performance (strong current profitability and operating cash flow tempered by volatility and mixed free-cash-flow conversion). Technicals are constructive with strong momentum above major moving averages, and valuation is supportive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend. Earnings call takeaways are positive on reaffirmed guidance and execution, but natural gas price volatility and acquisition-related leverage/dilution cap the upside.
Positive Factors
Diversified business model
NFG’s mix of production, gathering/processing, pipeline transport and regulated distribution creates stable, complementary cash flows. Commodity sensitivity in upstream is partly offset by fee‑based midstream and regulated utility revenue, supporting resilience across cycles.
Cash generation & profitability
Consistent positive operating cash flow and recent high operating and EBITDA margins indicate core businesses generate real cash. That supports funding capex, dividends and acquisition financing over the medium term despite past FCF variability.
Hedging and capacity growth
Extensive hedging reduces earnings volatility from commodity swings, while planned pipeline capacity increases broaden market access and fee‑based earnings. Together these structural moves bolster revenue stability and growth potential over the next few years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage risk
Balance sheet shows moderate leverage with limited cushion; management plans material long‑term debt for an acquisition, which raises medium‑term debt/EBITDA and reduces flexibility if cash flow weakens or rates rise, constraining strategic optionality.
Choppy free cash flow conversion
Operating cash flow exceeds net income but free cash flow conversion has been inconsistent due to capital intensity and timing. Persistent capex needs and variable FCF can limit deleveraging, dividend coverage, and acquisition funding reliability.
Regulatory & acquisition execution risk
Regulatory outcomes for the Ohio acquisition and state rate cases affect allowed returns and cash timing. Adverse rulings or prolonged approvals can lower near‑term cash flow, increase execution costs, and introduce longer‑term earnings/regulatory uncertainty for the utility franchise.
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.78B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)695.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth28.56%
EPS Growth593.72%
CountryUS
Employees2,311
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.06
Shares Outstanding95,026,420
10 Day Avg. Volume794,223
30 Day Avg. Volume695,107
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.67
P/FCF Ratio44.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$98.33Price Target Upside6.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.61B
National Fuel Gas Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States. As of September 30, 2021, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 21,537 thousand barrels of oil and 3,723,433 million cubic feet of natural gas. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State; and owns and operates the Empire Pipeline. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca Resources Company, LLC. The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas transportation services to approximately 753,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. The company markets gas to industrial, wholesale, commercial, public authority, and residential customers primarily in western and central New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania. As of September 30, 2021, the company also owned approximately 95,000 acres of timber property; and managed approximately 2,500 additional acres of timber cutting rights. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyNFG makes money through multiple, complementary natural gas-focused businesses. (1) Exploration & Production (upstream): The company earns revenue by producing natural gas and selling those volumes into wholesale natural gas markets; revenues are primarily driven by produced volumes and realized natural gas prices, and can be influenced by commodity price risk management (e.g., hedging) when used. (2) Gathering and processing / midstream: The company earns fee-based revenues by providing services that collect natural gas from producing wells, move it through gathering systems, and handle related midstream services; earnings in this area are generally linked to throughput volumes and contractual tariff/fee arrangements. (3) Pipeline and storage/transportation: NFG earns revenues by transporting natural gas on its pipeline assets under regulated and/or contracted rate structures; this tends to be supported by capacity commitments and transportation demand. (4) Regulated utility distribution: The company earns regulated revenues by delivering natural gas to retail customers through its local distribution utility; the utility’s earnings are primarily determined by authorized rates and allowed returns set by state regulators, with revenues largely tied to customer demand and approved rate mechanisms rather than commodity margins. Overall, NFG’s integrated structure allows it to earn both commodity-sensitive upstream revenue and more stable, rate- or fee-based midstream and utility earnings.
National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution (production up 12%, adjusted EBITDA +29%), reaffirmed guidance, improved capital efficiency (~30% since 2023), progress on strategic pipeline projects, and well-advanced financing and regulatory work for the Ohio acquisition. The major risks discussed were significant short-term natural gas price volatility, some near-term acquisition-related costs and dilution, and modest regulatory/cash-flow impacts from Ohio’s final order. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments, the hedging posture, and the secured equity financing outweigh the highlighted headwinds.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
First Quarter Earnings in Line with Expectations
Adjusted EPS of $2.06 for Q1, reported as right in line with company expectations and setting a solid foundation for the fiscal year.
Strong Upstream Performance and EBITDA Growth
Integrated Upstream & Gathering delivered a 29% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, driven by higher production and natural gas prices.
Production Growth
Net production of 109 Bcf in Q1, a 12% increase versus Q1 fiscal 2025; fiscal '26 production guidance reaffirmed at 440–455 Bcf.
Capital Efficiency Improvements
Capital efficiency is on track for a ~30% improvement since 2023, with lower capital spend paired with production growth; fiscal '26 capital guidance reaffirmed at $560–$610 million.
Hedge and Risk Management Positioning
Hedge book provides downside protection on ~70% of remaining production; approximately 80 Bcf of collars with a weighted average floor of $3.60 and cap of $4.75, and upside exposure on >50% of remaining production.
Affirmed Full-Year EPS Guidance and Growth Outlook
Reaffirmed fiscal '26 adjusted EPS guidance range of $7.60–$8.10 (midpoint $7.85); company projects fiscal '26 adjusted EPS to grow ~14% over last year.
Pipeline Projects Progressing
Tioga Pathway received FERC notice to proceed and will begin tree clearing; Shippingport Lateral received all required permits and remains on track for late-2026 in-service—additional expansion interest across systems noted.
Utility Regulatory and Rate Developments
Pennsylvania utility filed for an approximate $20 million rate increase (if approved, customer bills would rise ~11%); New York utility is in year 2 of a 3-year settlement providing rate stability.
Strategic Acquisition Financing Secured
Completed a $350 million private placement of common stock in December to satisfy equity needs for the CenterPoint Ohio LDC acquisition; transaction remains on track to close in Q4 calendar 2026.
Balance Sheet and Capital Plan
Management expects to approach ~1.75x net debt-to-EBITDA exiting fiscal '26 and to fund remaining acquisition-related financing with approximately $1.5 billion of long-term debt issuance; confidence in achieving the low end of the 2.5–3.0x net debt-to-EBITDA target within the first year post-close.
Commercial and Sustainability Win
Executed a 10-year agreement to provide 250,000 MMBtu/day of MiQ-certified methane reduction certificates to a European utility, reinforcing leadership in responsibly sourced gas.
Firm Transportation Capacity Expansion
Total firm transportation capacity expected to grow from 1.0 Bcf/day to 1.5 Bcf/day over the next few years via interstate pipeline projects and capacity releases, supporting future production growth and market access.
Negative Updates
Severe Natural Gas Price Volatility
Extreme near-term price volatility: February NYMEX contract settled near $7.50 (a ~140% increase from two weeks prior), yet company maintains a $3.75 assumption for the remainder of the fiscal year due to uncertainty—natural gas prices remain the largest variable for outlook.
Acquisition-Related Near-Term Costs and Dilution
Costs incurred ahead of the expected Ohio acquisition close (transaction, legal, integration readiness) and earlier permanent financing result in earlier dilution and incremental interest expense; these items will be presented as items impacting comparability.
Near-Term Cash Flow Impact from Ohio Regulatory Order
Ohio commission reduced the agreed ROE by 6 basis points to 9.79%, lowering near-term earnings by roughly $500,000 per year, and extended amortization of modernization deferrals from 15 to 25 years, modestly reducing near-term cash flow.
Short-Term Production Cadence Disruption
Q2 volumes are expected to be slightly down from Q1 due in part to till timing and deferred activity during recent extreme weather; some planned activity timing and a joint development pad could pull forward about $10 million of capital into fiscal '26.
Infrastructure Constraints and Storage Limitations
Limited new storage and constrained takeaway/pipeline infrastructure in the region contribute to pronounced price volatility; building new storage in the Northeast is costly and challenging, and storage optimization is being prioritized over greenfield storage.
Financing Execution Cost
Private placement equity executed at a ~2%–3% discount to market price, reflecting issuance costs and modest dilution to existing shareholders; $1.5 billion of planned long-term debt issuance will increase leverage in the near term.
Potential Customer Rate Impact
Pennsylvania rate case requests would raise bills by about 11% if approved, which management notes is still below inflation since the last rate increase but could present affordability concerns for customers and regulatory scrutiny.
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.60–$8.10 (midpoint $7.85) after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.06, and expects fiscal‑26 EPS to grow ~14% year‑over‑year; production guidance was reaffirmed at 440–455 Bcf (Q1 production 109 Bcf, +12% YoY) with capital spending of $560–$610 million (capex steady through the year), and a $3.75/Mcf price assumption for the remainder of the year. Their hedge book protects ~70% of remaining production, including ~80 Bcf of 2026 collars with a weighted floor of ~$3.60 and cap of ~$4.75, leaving upside exposure on >50% of remaining volumes; they also added swap layers in FY27–28 between ~$4.00–$4.25 and collars with high‑$3 floors and caps north of $5. On the balance sheet and financing front, NFG completed a $350 million private equity placement, expects to issue ~ $1.5 billion of long‑term debt for acquisition/refinancing, aims to exit FY26 near 1.75x net debt/EBITDA and to reach the low end of a 2.5–3.0x post‑close target within a year; regulatory items include an Ohio rate case seeking ~ $20 million of rate relief (≈11% bill increase) and a modified ROE of 9.79% (≈$0.5M/yr EPS impact) with amortizations extended from 15 to 25 years.National Fuel Gas Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong current profitability and positive operating cash flow, but results have been volatile across years (notably FY2024 weakness). Leverage is manageable but not conservative, and free cash flow conversion is uneven despite recent improvement.Income Statement
Profitability is strong in the most recent TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with solid gross profit and high operating and EBITDA margins, supporting healthy earnings. Revenue growth is modest recently, but performance improved materially versus FY2024, which showed a sharp drop in profitability. Overall, earnings power looks good, but results have been volatile across years (notably the weak FY2024), which tempers the score.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears moderate: debt is roughly in line with equity (debt-to-equity just under 1.0 in recent periods), which is manageable but leaves less flexibility if the cycle turns. Return on equity is strong in the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and FY2025, but it dipped significantly in FY2024, highlighting variability in underlying returns. The balance sheet looks stable overall, but not conservative.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is consistently positive and currently exceeds net income, indicating earnings are backed by cash generation. However, free cash flow conversion is relatively low versus net income in the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), suggesting meaningful reinvestment or capital spending needs. Free cash flow improved from FY2024 and is growing recently, but the multi-year pattern is choppy (including very weak free cash flow in FY2022), keeping the score mid-range.56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.37B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 1.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 1.51B | 817.70M | 847.85M | 902.96M | 759.72M |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.31B | 682.98M | 1.18B | 1.18B | 959.99M |
| Net Income | 655.16M | 518.50M | 77.51M | 476.87M | 566.02M | 363.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.21B | 8.72B | 8.32B | 8.28B | 7.90B | 7.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 271.40M | 43.17M | 38.22M | 55.45M | 46.05M | 31.53M |
| Total Debt | 2.77B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.67B | 2.69B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.62B | 5.62B | 5.47B | 5.32B | 5.82B | 5.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.59B | 3.09B | 2.85B | 2.96B | 2.08B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 204.84M | 187.21M | 134.72M | 227.21M | 695.00K | 39.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 1.10B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 812.52M | 791.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -936.04M | -891.70M | -933.90M | -1.11B | -518.70M | -633.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.88M | -203.38M | -149.28M | -207.00M | -276.24M | -58.74M |
National Fuel Gas Company Technical Analysis
Positive
92.40
Price Trends
86.30
Positive
83.65
Positive
84.78
Positive
Market Momentum
2.15
Positive
57.04
Neutral
46.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 92.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.62, above the 50-day MA of 86.30, and above the 200-day MA of 84.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NFG.
National Fuel Gas Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $8.78B | 10.05 | 21.09% | 2.57% | 28.56% | 593.72% | |
69 Neutral | $5.13B | 13.85 | 14.77% | 2.97% | 30.37% | 122.40% | |
67 Neutral | $29.97B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.45% | -28.80% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $16.40B | -17.14 | -2.22% | ― | -2.76% | 56.81% |
* Energy Sector Average
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
92.40
15.17
19.65%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
14.67
5.47
59.51%
TGS
Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B
32.26
6.15
23.55%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
39.48
4.00
11.27%
National Fuel Gas Company Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Fuel Gas Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
National Fuel Gas Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on March 12, 2026, where shareholders elected 11 directors, including David H. Anderson, David P. Bauer and others, to one-year terms with approval levels generally above 93% of votes cast. The strong support across the board signals continuity in board leadership and governance, with no evident shareholder pushback on the slate.
Shareholders also gave 97.8% approval in a non-binding advisory vote on named executive officer compensation, indicating broad backing of the company’s pay practices. In addition, investors overwhelmingly ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as independent auditor for fiscal 2026, reinforcing stability in financial oversight and signaling confidence in the company’s accounting and governance framework.
The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Buy with a $107.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation, Highlights Risks
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company updated its investor presentation, providing investors with refreshed financial and operational information and including certain non-GAAP financial measures that management and investors use to assess ongoing operations, cash flow, liquidity, and to compare the company’s performance with peers. The company also underscored the significant risks and uncertainties surrounding its future earnings projections and strategic initiatives, including its pending transaction with CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp., highlighting that factors such as regulatory changes, natural gas price volatility, evolving climate and environmental requirements, economic conditions, cybersecurity risks, and operational challenges could cause actual results to differ materially from its expectations.
The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Hold with a $101.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Fuel Gas Registers Shares for Secondary Resale
Neutral
Dec 29, 2025
On December 29, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company filed a prospectus supplement to an existing shelf registration to register for resale up to 4,402,513 shares of its $1.00 par value common stock held by certain selling stockholders. These shares were previously issued in a private placement financing disclosed on December 15, 2025, and the company concurrently filed a legal opinion from Lowenstein Sandler LLP on the validity of the registered shares, a procedural step that facilitates potential secondary market liquidity for those investors without directly raising new capital for the company.
The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Buy with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.
M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
National Fuel Gas Announces $350M Stock Placement
Positive
Dec 15, 2025
On December 15, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company announced a private placement of common stock, expected to close on December 17, 2025, with gross proceeds of $350 million from the sale of approximately 4.4 million shares at $79.50 per share. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including financing part of the acquisition of CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp.’s Ohio regulated gas utility business, aligning with the company’s goal to maintain its investment-grade credit rating.
The most recent analyst rating on (NFG) stock is a Buy with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Fuel Gas Company stock, see the NFG Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.