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Nexa Resources SA (NEXA)
NYSE:NEXA

Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) AI Stock Analysis

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NEXA

Nexa Resources SA

(NYSE:NEXA)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(3.05% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and constructive earnings-call catalysts, but held back by elevated leverage and uneven free cash flow/cash conversion. Valuation is attractive on P/E, while technicals are weak with the stock trading below key short-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Mining operational strength
High and improving zinc output combined with very strong mining margins (42% mining adjusted EBITDA) provides durable cash generation and cost competitiveness. This segment’s scale and by-product credits reduce unit costs and make the core business more resilient through commodity cycles.
Exploration and resource upside
Extensive successful drilling and multiple high‑grade intercepts support material life‑of‑mine extensions and brownfield growth. That resource replenishment lowers the need for greenfield capex, sustains medium‑term production optionality, and improves the company’s reserve profile for years ahead.
Improving leverage and liquidity profile
Reduced leverage, sizable liquidity and long average debt maturities materially increase financial flexibility. The undrawn RCF and multi‑year debt profile lower refinancing risk, support staged project execution (Aripuanã/Cerro Pasco) and make sustained deleveraging and capex possible without distress.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage relative to equity
Despite recent improvements, capital structure remains relatively geared which amplifies earnings volatility in downturns and constrains capital allocation. High debt levels increase interest burden and reduce optionality for M&A, dividends or aggressive reinvestment if commodity prices weaken.
Uneven free cash flow and cash conversion
Operating cash generation exists but free cash flow has been inconsistent, including a full‑year negative FCF in 2025 driven by capital decisions and working capital swings. This weak cash conversion limits reliable deleveraging, dividend flexibility and discretionary investments over the medium term.
Smelting segment margin pressure and FX headwinds
Persistent low smelter margins and rising conversion costs reduce the upside from integrated metal sales and increase reliance on third‑party processing. FX and operational cost pressures at Brazilian smelters can persist and limit consolidated margin improvement even if mining performance remains strong.

Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nexa Resources SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business. The company also produces zinc, silver, gold, copper cement, lead, sulfuric acid, sulfur dioxide, copper sulfate, and limestone deposits. It owns and operates five underground polymetallic mines, including three located in the Central Andes of Peru; and two located in the State of Minas Gerais in Brazil. The company also develops the Aripuanã project located in Mato Grosso, Brazil. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as VM Holding S.A. and changed its name to Nexa Resources S.A. in September 2017. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Nexa Resources S.A. is a subsidiary of Votorantim S.A.
How the Company Makes MoneyNexa Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of zinc and copper concentrates, which are produced from its mining operations. The company benefits from a diversified revenue model that includes both metal sales and by-products, such as lead and silver, derived from its ore processing. Key revenue streams include direct sales to industrial customers and trading companies, as well as long-term contracts that provide price stability. Additionally, Nexa's strategic partnerships with other mining entities and its focus on operational efficiency contribute to its profitability. Market fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for zinc and copper, significantly impact its earnings, making the company sensitive to global demand trends in the mining sector.

Nexa Resources SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial momentum driven by strong Q4 results, solid full-year performance, mining segment strength, successful exploration, and clear near-term catalysts (Aripuanã ramp-up and silver stream step-down). These positives are tempered by a weak smelting segment, a full-year negative free cash flow driven by deliberate debt repayments and dividends, working capital drag, and some regulatory/political uncertainties. On balance, the operational wins, margin resilience in mining, improved leverage and liquidity, and upcoming catalysts outweigh the headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Financial Performance
Net revenues of $903 million in Q4, up 18% sequentially and 22% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $300 million in Q4 (33% EBITDA margin); net income of $81 million ($0.38 per share); generated $51 million in free cash flow in the quarter.
Resilient Full-Year Results
Full year 2025 net revenues of $3.0 billion (up 9% vs 2024) and adjusted EBITDA of $772 million (up 8% vs 2024) with a 26% consolidated EBITDA margin; net income $223 million ($1.00 per share).
Mining Operational Strength
Quarterly zinc production of 91,000 tons, a 9% increase versus Q3; full-year zinc production of 316,000 tons met consolidated guidance. Mining segment Q4 net revenues of $532 million and adjusted EBITDA of $266 million (50% EBITDA margin); full-year mining adjusted EBITDA ~$658 million (42% margin).
Aripuanã Milestones and Near-Term Catalyst
Aripuanã achieved its highest quarterly production to date; fourth tailings filter arrived and installation progressing on schedule with commissioning on track for H1 2026 and full operating capacity expected in H2 2026 — supporting higher future production and cash generation.
Exploration Success and Resource Upside
2025 exploration delivered deep, high-grade intersections across key assets (Cerro Lindo, Aripuanã Massaranduba, Vazante, Pasco), reinforcing resource base and potential life-of-mine extensions.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Improvement
Net leverage improved to 1.7x (from 2.2x prior quarter); net debt reduced by $96 million during the year; total liquidity of $842 million including $320 million undrawn sustainability-linked RCF; average debt maturity extended to 7.6 years and average cost of debt 6.49%.
Silver Exposure Enhances Future Earnings Leverage
Company produces ~11 million ounces of silver annually and the existing Cerro Lindo streaming agreement steps down from 65% to 25% beginning in Q2 2026, materially increasing Nexa's realized exposure to silver prices and anticipated EBITDA leverage thereafter.
Capital Discipline and Project Execution
Full-year CapEx of $352 million (slightly above $347 million guidance, mainly FX-driven); Cerro Pasco Phase 1 execution on track with $42 million invested in 2025 (vs plan $44 million); exploration & project evaluation spend $78 million (below $88 million plan).
Negative Updates
Smelting Segment Weakness
Smelting sales declined sequentially to 142,000 tons in Q4 due to lower Brazilian smelter production and softer zinc oxide demand; smelting Q4 adjusted EBITDA only $34 million and full-year smelting adjusted EBITDA $113 million (6% EBITDA margin), indicating margin pressure in the segment.
Negative Full-Year Free Cash Flow
Full-year free cash flow was negative $105 million, driven by deliberate capital allocation decisions including debt repayments and $48 million in dividends/share premium reimbursements; cash flow before loans, debt payments and dividends was $39 million.
Working Capital and Other Cash Drag
Working capital and other cash flow variations had a negative impact of $212 million during 2025, reducing near-term cash conversion despite strong operating cash generation ($846 million before working capital).
Smelting Cost and FX Headwinds
Quarterly smelting cash cost was $1.41 per lb and full-year $1.28 per lb; conversion cost $0.34 per lb in Q4. Year-over-year increases in conversion cost attributed to higher operational costs and unfavorable foreign exchange at Brazilian units, pressuring smelter margins.
Operational Ramp-up Costs and Seasonal Risks
Cost per ton of run-of-mine increased sequentially to $56 in Q4, mainly due to higher operational costs at Aripuanã during ramp-up; historical rainy-season impacts remain a seasonal risk (management reports preparedness but noted prior impacts and careful throughput management).
Regulatory and Project Uncertainty (Ayawilca) and Political Noise
Ayawilca environmental impact study was disapproved and the company is engaging with government authorities — creating project uncertainty. Additionally, short-term political volatility in Peru (interim presidents/elections) was noted as noise, though management sees limited immediate operational impact.
Limited Near-Term Monetization of Silver Upside
Despite strong silver prices and market interest in streaming, management stated additional silver streaming is not a priority today, foregoing a potential quick monetization route to accelerate deleveraging.
Company Guidance
Management said 2025 guidance was met: consolidated zinc mining production of 316,000 t (Q4 91,000 t) and smelter metal sales of 567,000 t (Q4 142,000 t, in line with the midpoint); Q4 net revenues were $903M and adjusted EBITDA $300M (FY net revenues $3.0B and adjusted EBITDA $772M), Q4 net income $81M ($0.38/sh) and FY net income $223M ($1.00/sh). Key operational milestones and 2026 guidance include commissioning Aripuanã’s fourth tailings filter in H1 2026 and reaching full plant capacity in H2 2026, advancing Cerro Pasco Phase 1 with ~$42M spent in 2025 and similar CapEx expected in 2026 (Phase 2 studies ongoing, potential >15‑year life extension), and continued exploration (2025 spend $78M). Cost and cash metrics highlighted: mining cash cost net of by‑products Q4 -$0.58/lb and FY -$0.30/lb, ROM cost $56/t (Q4), smelter cash cost Q4 $1.41/lb and FY $1.28/lb (conversion $0.34/lb), FY CapEx $352M (Q4 $125M), operating cash flow before WC $846M, FY free cash flow -$105M (Q4 +$51M), net debt reduced by $96M, net leverage improved to 1.7x, total liquidity $842M (incl. $320M undrawn RCF), average debt maturity 7.6 years and average cost of debt 6.49%. They reiterated priorities to deleverage and preserve liquidity, noted zinc market support into H1 2026 and that the Cerro Lindo silver stream steps down from 65% to 25% in Q2 2026 (company produces ~11Moz Ag/yr; hedges have a silver floor/cap of ~$52/$84).

Nexa Resources SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials show a meaningful 2025 recovery with a return to profitability and stronger operating margins, and operating cash flow remains positive. Offsetting this, leverage is still elevated (debt ~1.8x equity) and free cash flow/cash conversion has been uneven, indicating higher-cycle risk and less reliable discretionary cash generation.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Performance has improved meaningfully into 2025 (annual), with revenue up ~5.9% and a return to profitability (net margin ~4.4%) after losses in 2023–2024. Operating profitability also strengthened (EBIT margin ~13.7%, EBITDA margin ~25.6%). Offsetting this, results have been volatile over the cycle (large losses in 2020 and again in 2023–2024), and gross margin has trended down versus 2021–2022 levels, suggesting ongoing sensitivity to pricing and cost conditions.
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Leverage remains elevated for the profile: total debt is ~1.83B versus equity of ~1.00B in 2025 (annual), implying debt is roughly 1.8x equity. While the debt-to-equity ratio improved from the 2024 peak (~2.3x), equity has also moved around over time, and the overall capital structure still looks geared, which can amplify earnings swings in weaker commodity/industrial environments.
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
Operating cash flow is consistently positive (about 404M in 2025 annual, up from ~350M in 2024), which supports underlying cash generation. However, free cash flow has been uneven (negative in 2022–2023, modestly positive in 2024–2025), and in 2025 free cash flow is relatively small versus net income (about 0.13x), indicating profits are not fully translating into discretionary cash after capital needs.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.99B2.77B2.57B3.03B2.62B
Gross Profit535.01M538.07M298.88M640.05M633.09M
EBITDA766.51M608.51M205.43M672.15M697.68M
Net Income132.63M-205.03M-291.97M49.70M114.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.27B4.64B4.84B4.89B4.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments521.56M640.23M468.32M515.89M763.02M
Total Debt1.83B1.86B1.73B1.67B1.72B
Total Liabilities3.99B3.58B3.38B3.18B3.26B
Stockholders Equity1.00B813.93M1.20B1.44B1.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow51.97M90.71M-57.04M-120.43M7.78M
Operating Cash Flow403.84M349.72M256.20M266.63M492.99M
Investing Cash Flow-320.88M-237.61M-270.35M-378.93M-469.27M
Financing Cash Flow-200.35M61.94M-34.64M-149.23M-344.13M

Nexa Resources SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price11.16
Price Trends
50DMA
11.94
Negative
100DMA
9.42
Positive
200DMA
7.20
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.19
Positive
RSI
45.32
Neutral
STOCH
29.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEXA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.85, below the 50-day MA of 11.94, and above the 200-day MA of 7.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NEXA.

Nexa Resources SA Risk Analysis

Nexa Resources SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexa Resources SA reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nexa Resources SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
60
Neutral
$1.44B-40.01-11.58%240.12%0.98%
58
Neutral
$1.48B8.8414.19%1.14%7.92%91.83%
57
Neutral
$964.11M11.11-15.33%11.32%61.60%
50
Neutral
$804.36M-5.12-22.22%1.17%-16.89%-403.77%
47
Neutral
$710.78M-248.46-44.72%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
11.16
5.67
103.13%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
23.03
12.08
110.32%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.31
0.25
6.16%
UAMY
United States Antimony
10.30
8.50
472.22%
NB
NioCorp Developments
4.98
3.22
182.95%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
9.17
7.31
393.01%

Nexa Resources SA Corporate Events

Nexa Resources Swings to 2025 Profit as Revenues Rise and Impairments Reverse
Feb 26, 2026

On February 26, 2026, Nexa Resources S.A. filed its Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filing, signed by Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO José Carlos del Valle, details a sharp turnaround to a 2025 net profit of $223.1 million after losses in 2024 and 2023, driven by higher net revenues of $3.0 billion, improved gross profit, and a $91.7 million impairment reversal on long-lived assets, although financial expenses remained substantial.

The improved 2025 performance translated into basic and diluted earnings of $1.00 per share attributable to shareholders, compared with losses of $1.55 and $2.20 per share in the prior two years. For stakeholders, the stronger operating income, positive contribution from associates, and higher total comprehensive income of $298.6 million, alongside a still-solid cash position despite a decline from 2024, signal a recovery in Nexa’s financial health that may bolster its standing in the cyclical base-metals industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Nexa Resources Posts Strong 4Q25 and FY2025 Results With Higher Earnings and Zinc Output
Feb 26, 2026

On February 26, 2026, Nexa Resources reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting record quarterly performance supported by higher zinc and by-product prices, stronger production at key mines, and disciplined cost control. The company posted 2025 net income of US$223 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$772 million on net revenues of US$3 billion, while reducing gross debt and keeping net debt at 1.7x last twelve months adjusted EBITDA.

Zinc production rose 24% year-over-year in the fourth quarter to 91kt, with the Aripuanã mine achieving its highest output to date and contributing increasingly to earnings as plant performance improved. Smelting volumes declined modestly in line with guidance, but higher prices and by-product credits boosted margins even as mining and smelting unit costs rose, reinforcing Nexa’s financial resilience and supporting its strategy to extend asset life, improve mine–smelter integration, and return capital to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Nexa Resources Resumes Atacocha Mine Operations After Community Protests End
Feb 18, 2026

On February 18, 2026, Luxembourg-based Nexa Resources said operations at its Atacocha San Gerardo open-pit zinc mine in Peru began gradually resuming on February 16, 2026, after protests by the local Joraonivoc community ended and road access was restored. The temporary disruption is expected to result in a production loss of about 0.9kt of zinc, which the company plans to recover in the coming months, leaving its 2026 production guidance unchanged and underscoring its emphasis on safety and continued engagement with host communities.

The restart of Atacocha signals operational normalization after a short-lived community-related stoppage, limiting the impact on Nexa’s broader output plans and financial outlook. By reaffirming full-year guidance and highlighting its commitment to social development and dialogue with local stakeholders, Nexa seeks to reassure investors and regulators that community tensions are being managed without lasting damage to its mining operations in Peru.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Sell with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Nexa Resources Posts Strong 2025 Exploration Results, Signals Mine Life Extensions Across Core Operations
Feb 11, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Nexa Resources reported drilling and assay results for the second half and full year 2025, highlighting positive exploration outcomes across its key Latin American operations. The company completed 274,889 meters of drilling in 2025, including 69,807 meters of exploration and 205,082 meters of infill work, which strengthened geological confidence and supported mineral resource replenishment.

High‑grade intercepts were reported at multiple targets, including Cerro Lindo’s Orebody 8C, the Massaranduba target at Aripuanã, Conexão Sucuri Norte at Vazante and the Integración target at El Porvenir, where thick polymetallic zones with strong silver grades were confirmed. These results are expected to extend mine lives, enhance medium‑term production optionality and reinforce Nexa’s brownfield growth pipeline, with substantial additional drilling planned in Peru and Brazil during 2026 to further expand and upgrade resources.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Sell with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Nexa Resources Hits 2025 Operational and Cost Targets, Sets 2026–2028 Outlook
Feb 6, 2026

On February 6, 2026, Nexa Resources reported preliminary operational results for the three- and twelve-month periods ended December 31, 2025, confirming that it met its 2025 consolidated production, sales and cost guidance and outlining its production, sales, cost and capex outlook for 2026–2028. Zinc production reached 316kt, copper 33kt, lead 63kt and silver 11 million ounces, all within guidance ranges, with particularly strong performance at Cajamarquilla, which delivered record annual zinc metal output and helped keep total metal sales at 567kt near the midpoint of guidance despite operational instability in Brazilian smelters and lower treatment charges. Nexa also kept total expenditures below guidance and significantly outperformed its mining C1 cash cost target, ending roughly 48% below the guided range due to efficiency gains, disciplined cost management and higher by‑product credits, while both mining run‑of‑mine costs and smelting conversion costs were contained within or below guided levels, underscoring improved operational efficiency and supporting the company’s strategic positioning as a cost‑competitive, diversified base‑metals and silver producer ahead of its detailed 2025 financial results release on February 26, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Nexa Resources Temporarily Halts Atacocha Mine After Community Road Blockade
Jan 21, 2026

On January 21, 2026, Nexa Resources announced that it has temporarily suspended production at its Atacocha San Gerardo open-pit mine in Peru after the Joraoniyoc community illegally blocked road access to the site as part of protest activities. While the company reported no material impact on Atacocha’s production to date and noted that the mine’s output of roughly 0.2kt of zinc per week represents less than 3% of Nexa’s total zinc production, operations have been reduced to critical maintenance with a minimum workforce as management engages in dialogue with local communities and authorities to seek a peaceful resolution, underscoring both the limited immediate impact on group production and the ongoing social and operational risks associated with community relations in its host regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Nexa Resources Completes Sale of Otavi Project Licenses to Midnab Resources
Dec 22, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Nexa Resources S.A. announced it had completed the previously disclosed sale of ten Exclusive Prospecting Licenses that make up its Otavi and Namibia North projects to Midnab Resources, a subsidiary of Australia-listed Midas Minerals. The assets, formerly part of a joint venture between Nexa Brazil and Japan’s state-owned JOGMEC, were fully transferred with all related rights, titles and interests, with JOGMEC retaining rights to 49% of the sale proceeds. Nexa said the divestment is part of its ongoing portfolio optimization strategy aimed at prioritizing higher-return assets, boosting free cash flow and reinforcing disciplined capital allocation, while confirming that Namibia remains a strategic region as it advances copper exploration initiatives beyond its core Latin American base, signaling a continued regional presence but with a more focused asset mix for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NEXA) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexa Resources SA stock, see the NEXA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 07, 2026