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Strategy (MSTR)
NASDAQ:MSTR

Strategy (MSTR) AI Stock Analysis

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MSStrategy
(NASDAQ:MSTR)
52Neutral
Strategy faces financial challenges with high leverage and cash flow issues, affecting its stock score. However, strategic shifts towards Bitcoin and cloud services, alongside successful capital raising, provide potential growth opportunities. Mixed technical indicators and unattractive valuation metrics temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Bitcoin Acquisition Strategy
Strategy quickly directed proceeds from recent preferred stock issuance toward the purchase of incremental bitcoin.
BTC Yield Target
MSTR raised its 2025 BTC yield target from 6-10% to over 15%.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
MSTR reported 4Q24 results with revenue down 3% y/y, below consensus.

Strategy (MSTR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Strategy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) is a leading global provider of enterprise analytics and mobility software. The company is renowned for its business intelligence solutions that empower businesses to analyze vast amounts of data to uncover actionable insights. Headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia, MicroStrategy serves a diverse range of sectors including finance, healthcare, retail, and government by providing robust analytics platforms, data visualization, and cloud-based services.
How the Company Makes MoneyMicroStrategy primarily generates revenue through the sale of software licenses and subscriptions, as well as through support and services. The company's key revenue streams include licensing fees for its powerful analytics platform, which businesses utilize to gain deep insights into their data. Additionally, MicroStrategy offers cloud-based subscriptions that provide clients with scalable and flexible analytics solutions. The company also earns from consulting services, offering expertise to help organizations implement and optimize their analytics strategies. Significant partnerships with technology giants and integrators further bolster their market presence and revenue generation capabilities.

Strategy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strategy's financial statements depict a company facing significant financial challenges, with operational inefficiencies and cash flow issues. The income statement shows volatility with declining net profit margins, a high debt-to-equity ratio, and negative free cash flow indicating financial instability.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Strategy's income statement shows significant volatility. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the net profit margin has declined substantially due to increasing losses. Revenue has fluctuated slightly over the years, with a recent decline. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have been negative, indicating operational challenges and inefficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which is a potential risk. However, the company has improved its equity position recently. The equity ratio has been low, signifying a reliance on debt financing. The return on equity has been poor due to negative net income.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow, suggesting cash constraints. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates cash flow issues, as operating cash flow remains negative. Free cash flow has been consistently negative, reflecting challenges in generating cash from operations.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
503.86M463.46M496.26M499.26M510.76M480.74M
Gross Profit
406.66M333.99M386.32M396.27M418.85M389.68M
EBIT
-12.07M-1.85B-115.05M6.08M876.72M127.77M
EBITDA
-1.25B-1.85B-44.30M-1.26B-770.88M6.50M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.32B-1.17B429.12M-1.47B-535.48M-7.52M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
38.12M38.12M46.82M43.84M63.36M59.67M
Total Assets
25.84B25.84B4.76B2.41B3.56B1.47B
Total Debt
109.90M109.90M2.25B2.45B2.23B570.69M
Net Debt
71.78M71.78M2.21B2.40B2.17B511.02M
Total Liabilities
7.61B7.61B2.60B2.79B2.58B912.57M
Stockholders Equity
18.23B18.23B2.16B-383.12M978.96M553.04M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.20B-53.03M-1.89B-287.20M-2.54B-1.08B
Operating Cash Flow
40.02M-53.03M12.71M3.21M93.83M53.62M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.24B-22.09B-1.91B-278.59M-2.63B-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow
1.22B22.13B1.89B265.19M2.54B563.23M

Strategy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price287.18
Price Trends
50DMA
325.69
Negative
100DMA
321.71
Negative
200DMA
235.55
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-15.02
Negative
RSI
45.80
Neutral
STOCH
74.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSTR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 287.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 298.26, below the 50-day MA of 325.69, and above the 200-day MA of 235.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -15.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MSTR.

Strategy Risk Analysis

Strategy disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Strategy reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Strategy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$193.43B36.2236.31%11.02%4.96%
SASAP
77
Outperform
$333.31B98.947.12%0.62%9.55%-2.28%
CRCRM
73
Outperform
$274.89B44.9610.26%0.56%8.72%51.47%
68
Neutral
$422.17B36.94132.00%1.06%6.40%12.83%
IBIBM
67
Neutral
$230.60B38.7024.14%2.69%1.45%-20.56%
59
Neutral
$22.39B11.53-18.05%2.31%5.00%-25.89%
52
Neutral
$78.52B-11.44%-6.61%-254.90%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MSTR
Strategy
287.18
138.76
93.49%
ADBE
Adobe
449.40
-111.02
-19.81%
IBM
International Business Machines
261.54
76.05
41.00%
ORCL
Oracle
155.16
42.25
37.42%
CRM
Salesforce
282.89
-21.41
-7.04%
SAP
SAP AG
276.80
88.67
47.13%

Strategy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -14.71% | Next Earnings Date: May 6, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant strategic initiatives, including a rebranding and massive capital raises, alongside a continued focus on Bitcoin and cloud services. Despite challenges in the traditional software business and past impairment charges, the company showed strong growth in new areas and innovative financial strategies.
Highlights
Rebranding and Strategic Expansion
Strategy announced its rebranding from MicroStrategy, emphasizing simplicity, continuity, and ambition. It also launched a new website and merchandise store, and was included in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
Significant Bitcoin Holdings and Valuation
Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 471,107 Bitcoins valued at $46 billion. They adopted FASB’s Fair Value Accounting Standard, leading to a $12.75 billion increase in retained earnings.
Record Capital Raising and Convertible Debt Issuance
Raised $18.8 billion through equity and $6.2 billion through convertible notes in 2024. Notably, they were the largest issuer of convertible bonds in a decade.
Cloud Services Growth
Subscription services revenues increased by 48% year-over-year, and subscription billings grew by 57%, reflecting successful cloud transition efforts.
Introduction of New Financial Instruments
Launched 'Strike' perpetual convertible preferred stock, raising $584 million. Strike offers an 8% fixed coupon and a perpetual conversion option.
Lowlights
Decline in Software Business Revenues
Total software revenues decreased by 3% in Q4 and 7% for the full year 2024, reflecting a shift from on-premise to cloud services.
Digital Asset Impairment Charges
Recorded digital asset impairment charges of $1 billion in Q4 and $1.8 billion for the full year, although this will change with the new accounting standards.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2024, Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, provided extensive guidance on its financial and strategic directions. The company reported a 50% year-over-year increase in subscription billings and a 48% rise in subscription services revenues, marking a strong performance in its cloud transition. Strategy also discussed its significant role as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding 471,107 Bitcoins with a market value of $46 billion as of February 2025. The adoption of FASB's Fair Value Accounting Standard will result in a $12.75 billion increase to its retained earnings in Q1 2025. In capital markets, Strategy raised $18.8 billion through equity offerings and $6.2 billion via convertible notes, achieving a notable presence as the largest issuer of convertible bonds in a decade. The company has set ambitious targets for 2025, including a 15% BTC Yield and a $10 billion BTC dollar gain, while focusing on issuing fixed-income securities to further its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

Strategy Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Strategy Announces Dividend Amid Bitcoin Holdings Update
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

MicroStrategy Incorporated, operating as Strategy, announced on March 3, 2025, that it did not sell any shares of class A common stock or purchase any bitcoin between February 24, 2025, and March 2, 2025. As of March 2, 2025, the company held approximately 499,096 bitcoins, acquired at a total cost of about $33.1 billion. Additionally, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of approximately $1.24 per share on its 8.00% series A perpetual strike preferred stock, payable on March 31, 2025, to stockholders of record as of March 15, 2025.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Strategy’s Recent Bitcoin Acquisition and Financial Moves
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

Between January 1, 2025, and February 23, 2025, Strategy company reported a BTC Yield of 6.9%, a BTC Gain of 30,702, and a BTC $ Gain of $2.941 billion. The company completed a private offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030, raising approximately $1.99 billion, which was used to acquire 20,356 bitcoins. As of February 23, 2025, the company held 499,096 bitcoins. These metrics indicate the company’s strategy of acquiring bitcoin to enhance shareholder value, although they do not account for liabilities or predict stock trading prices.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
MicroStrategy to Redeem Convertible Senior Notes in 2025
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025

MicroStrategy, a company known for its significant holdings in bitcoin, announced that it did not engage in any bitcoin purchases or sales of class A common stock between February 10 and February 17, 2025. As of February 17, 2025, MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries held approximately 478,740 bitcoins at an average purchase price of $65,033 per bitcoin. Additionally, the company plans to redeem its 0.0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 on February 24, 2025, with conversion requests already received for a significant portion of the notes, leading to the issuance of over 6 million shares.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MicroStrategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings Amidst Financial Maneuvers
Positive
Feb 10, 2025

MicroStrategy Incorporated, operating as Strategy, announced significant activities between January 1, 2025, and February 9, 2025, including a 4.1% increase in BTC Yield, a BTC Gain of 18,527, and a BTC $ Gain of $1.785 billion. As of February 9, 2025, the company held 478,740 bitcoins acquired at an aggregate cost of $31.1 billion. During the same period, the company sold 516,413 shares under a sales agreement, generating $179 million, and completed a public offering of preferred stock netting approximately $563.4 million. These financial maneuvers were used to acquire 7,633 bitcoins for roughly $742.4 million, enhancing their strategic bitcoin holdings. Additionally, the company announced the redemption of its 2027 Convertible Notes, with significant conversion requests received, impacting the company’s share structure.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MicroStrategy Increases Bitcoin Holdings and Redeems Notes
Neutral
Jan 27, 2025

MicroStrategy reported a BTC Yield of 2.90% from January 1, 2025, to January 26, 2025, a key performance indicator reflecting the change in bitcoin holdings relative to assumed diluted shares. The company also announced the redemption of its 2027 Convertible Senior Notes, impacting the conversion and share assumptions. Additionally, MicroStrategy sold 2,765,157 shares for $1.1 billion, which funded the purchase of 10,107 bitcoins during the same period, increasing its total holdings to 471,107 bitcoins.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Microstrategy Enhances Equity Framework and Expands Capital
Positive
Jan 23, 2025

On January 21, 2025, MicroStrategy Incorporated held a special meeting where its stockholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, allowing automatic equity awards to be granted to new directors upon their appointment to the board. Additionally, on January 22, 2025, the company filed an amendment to its certificate of incorporation, significantly increasing the number of authorized shares of Class A common stock and preferred stock. These changes reflect the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its equity framework and expand its capital stock, positioning it for potential future growth and increased shareholder value.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Microstrategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings with Equity Sales
Neutral
Jan 21, 2025

Between January 13 and January 20, 2025, MicroStrategy sold 3,012,072 class A common shares for approximately $1.1 billion and acquired 11,000 bitcoins at a cost of about $1.1 billion. This transaction increased MicroStrategy’s total bitcoin holdings to 461,000 bitcoins, emphasizing its strategy of leveraging equity sales to enhance bitcoin acquisitions, thereby influencing its BTC Yield, a key performance indicator used to assess the accretive nature of its bitcoin strategy.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
MicroStrategy Reports BTC Yield and Share Sale
Neutral
Jan 13, 2025

MicroStrategy Incorporated announced its BTC Yield, a key performance indicator, was 0.32% from January 1, 2025, to January 12, 2025. The company uses this KPI to evaluate its strategy of acquiring bitcoin, funded by issuing additional shares of its common stock. During this period, MicroStrategy sold 710,425 shares, raising approximately $243 million, which was used to purchase 2,530 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 450,000 bitcoins.

Private Placements and FinancingStock SplitBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MicroStrategy Advances Bitcoin Strategy Amid Financial Challenges
Neutral
Jan 6, 2025

MicroStrategy reported a BTC Yield of 74.3% for 2024, reflecting its strategic focus on acquiring Bitcoin, viewed as beneficial for shareholders. The company completed a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A and B common stock and announced significant sales of shares, raising $101 million used to purchase 1,070 bitcoins. As of January 2025, MicroStrategy holds approximately 447,470 bitcoins, acquired at an average cost of $62,503 per bitcoin, with a market value of $98,253.13 per bitcoin on Coinbase. The company’s substantial indebtedness, primarily from convertible notes, suggests a focus on financing Bitcoin acquisitions, though it introduces financial risks and strategic challenges.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MicroStrategy’s Strategic Bitcoin Investment and Equity Sale
Positive
Dec 30, 2024

MicroStrategy reported a BTC Yield of 74.1% for the year 2024, which is a key performance indicator reflecting the company’s strategy of using equity capital to acquire bitcoin. During December 2024, MicroStrategy sold shares worth $209 million and acquired 2,138 bitcoins, holding a total of 446,400 bitcoins as of the end of the period, underscoring its commitment to bitcoin as a core part of its strategy.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Microstrategy Increases Bitcoin Holdings and Reports Strong Yield
Positive
Dec 23, 2024

Microstrategy reported a BTC Yield of 47.4% for the fourth quarter of 2024 and 73.7% for the year, a key performance indicator reflecting the period-to-period change in the ratio of bitcoin holdings to assumed diluted shares outstanding. The company raised approximately $561 million from the sale of 1,317,841 class A common stock shares, using the proceeds to acquire 5,262 bitcoins, thereby increasing its total bitcoin holdings to 444,262 bitcoins. This strategic move aligns with Microstrategy’s approach to leverage equity capital to enhance shareholder value through bitcoin acquisition.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
MicroStrategy Expands Board, Enhances Governance Strategy
Positive
Dec 20, 2024

MicroStrategy Incorporated has expanded its Board of Directors from six to nine members, adding Brian Brooks, Jane Dietze, and Gregg Winiarksi as new directors. The board’s amendment to the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan allows these new directors to receive equity awards valued at $2 million upon their election, subject to stockholder approval, which highlights the company’s strategic efforts to enhance governance and potentially influence its market positioning.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MicroStrategy Reports Significant Bitcoin Yield and Acquisition
Positive
Dec 16, 2024

MicroStrategy announced a BTC Yield of 46.4% for the period from October 1 to December 15, 2024, and 72.4% year-to-date, indicating its strategy of acquiring bitcoin is believed to be accretive to shareholders. The company acquired approximately 15,350 bitcoins for $1.5 billion using proceeds from recent share sales, bringing its total bitcoin holdings to 439,000. This strategy reflects MicroStrategy’s focus on leveraging equity capital to enhance its bitcoin portfolio, with potential implications for its market positioning and shareholder value.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Microstrategy’s Strategic Bitcoin Acquisitions and Performance Indicators
Positive
Dec 9, 2024

The Company’s BTC Yield, a key performance indicator reflecting the change in ratio between bitcoin holdings and assumed diluted shares, stood at 43.2% for the quarter and 68.7% year-to-date in 2024. This metric helps evaluate the strategy of acquiring bitcoin through equity and convertible instruments. Recent stock sales raised $2.13 billion, enabling the purchase of 21,550 bitcoins. As of December 8, 2024, the Company held 423,650 bitcoins, emphasizing its commitment to a bitcoin-focused strategy.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.