Mogu (MOGU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.46M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): <0.01
• Revenue Growth: -32.31%
• EPS Growth: 69.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 308
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 7,205,231
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,557
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,858
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: ―

Mogu's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges, including declining revenue, consistent losses, and cash burn issues. While the technical analysis provides some stability signals, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative profitability. Without positive catalysts from earnings calls or corporate events, the stock remains high risk.

Mogu Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MOGU Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the online fashion and lifestyle business in the People's Republic of China. The company operates an online platform that primarily offers a range of fashion apparel and other products, including beauty products and accessories provided by third party merchants, as well as personal care, food, and medical beauty products. It also provides online marketing, commission, financing, technology, and other related services to merchants, brand partners/owners, and users; and technology services to insurance companies. The company offers its products through mobile apps, including flagship Mogujie app, mini programs on Weixin, and Weixin pay and QQ Wallet entryways; websites comprising Mogu.com, Mogujie.com and Meilishuo.com. The company was formerly known as Meili Inc. and changed its name to MOGU Inc. in November 2018. MOGU Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Mogu primarily generates revenue through a commission-based model, charging a percentage fee on sales made by merchants through its platform. Additionally, Mogu earns income from advertising services, where brands and sellers pay for promotional placements and marketing campaigns to reach a broader audience. The company also benefits from its live streaming commerce, where influencers and hosts promote products in real-time, driving sales and engagement. Strategic partnerships with fashion brands and technology companies further enhance its platform capabilities and revenue potential.

Mogu Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mogu is facing serious financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement highlights declining revenue and consistent losses, the balance sheet shows weak profitability despite low leverage, and the cash flow statement underscores significant cash burn and liquidity risks. Strategic changes are crucial for improving operational efficiency and financial health.

Income Statement

Mogu's income statement reflects significant challenges, with declining revenue and persistent negative profitability. Revenue has decreased consistently over the years, with a recent drop from $232 million to $160 million. The gross profit margin stands at approximately 43%, but net profit margin remains deeply negative at -37%, indicating substantial losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting ongoing operational difficulties. Overall, the company faces severe profitability issues, impacting its ability to generate positive earnings.

Balance Sheet

Mogu's balance sheet shows moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating limited leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity (ROE) is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholder equity. The equity ratio is around 63%, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the overall financial health is hindered by continuous losses affecting equity value.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis for Mogu reveals substantial concerns. Operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow has worsened from -$65 million to -$135 million, indicating cash burn issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio are unfavorable, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. This persistent negative cash flow trajectory poses significant liquidity risks.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	138.90M	160.34M	232.08M	337.47M	482.39M	835.31M
Gross Profit	57.75M	69.15M	118.19M	177.87M	299.28M	541.56M
EBITDA	-50.74M	-51.42M	-114.76M	-322.80M	-84.84M	-348.80M
Net Income	-48.01M	-59.28M	-177.98M	-639.80M	-328.01M	-2.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	887.10M	938.36M	986.15M	1.17B	1.84B	2.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	355.88M	420.10M	562.04M	635.46M	802.32M	1.09B
Total Debt	760.00K	2.66M	3.41M	10.06M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	312.77M	323.91M	308.11M	334.82M	384.96M	460.28M
Stockholders Equity	546.70M	588.39M	644.04M	789.74M	1.45B	1.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-130.66M	-134.62M	-65.64M	-169.55M	-230.58M	-322.22M
Operating Cash Flow	-36.51M	-40.46M	-10.09M	-114.41M	-77.93M	-311.79M
Investing Cash Flow	-243.00M	-19.77M	608.00K	13.95M	-96.66M	-113.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-822.00K	0.00	-12.06M	450.00K	-119.25M	-29.33M

Mogu Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOGU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.12, below the 50-day MA of 2.17, and below the 200-day MA of 2.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOGU.

Mogu Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥253.34B	13.18	6.44%	2.78%	5.06%	-11.83%
TDUP	62 Neutral	$945.98M	―	-69.51%	―	-10.55%	9.27%
JMIA	53 Neutral	$540.06M	―	-134.38%	―	-23.23%	―
BZUN	46 Neutral	$161.10M	―	-4.61%	―	6.05%	29.58%
LITB	43 Neutral	$22.43M	15.44	114.41%	―	-58.19%	―
LOGC	41 Neutral	$193.45M	―	-14.89%	―	-84.75%	77.25%
MOGU	40 Underperform	$15.46M	―	-8.25%	―	-32.31%	69.20%