Maximus (MMS)
NYSE:MMS
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Maximus
(NYSE:MMS)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$68.00
▼(-21.13% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
The score reflects solid underlying financial quality (improving profitability, strong ROE, and improved leverage) and a reasonable valuation, partially offset by weak technical momentum and mixed near-term execution signals (revenue softness and cash/working-capital pressure). The earnings outlook is constructive due to raised FY2026 earnings and margin guidance, but contract timing and low book-to-bill keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability and Margins
Sustained margin improvement and high ROE indicate structural operating discipline and pricing/efficiency gains across contracts. Higher EBITDA margins widen the margin buffer on fixed-price work and support durable cash generation even if top-line growth slows.
Negative Factors
Revenue Softness and Segment Contraction
Persistent revenue declines and material weakness in service segments suggest exposure to contract timing and reduced program volumes. Slower top-line growth limits operating leverage and constrains the pace at which margin gains translate into sustained earnings expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability and Margins
Sustained margin improvement and high ROE indicate structural operating discipline and pricing/efficiency gains across contracts. Higher EBITDA margins widen the margin buffer on fixed-price work and support durable cash generation even if top-line growth slows.
Read all positive factors
Maximus (MMS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.40B
Dividend Yield1.38%
Average Volume (3M)711.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth2.36%
EPS Growth11.30%
CountryUS
Employees41,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.85
Shares Outstanding54,548,576
10 Day Avg. Volume828,039
30 Day Avg. Volume711,241
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.56
Price to Book (P/B)3.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio14.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.91
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)8.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.47B
Maximus Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maximus, Inc. provides business process services (BPS) to government health and human services programs. It operates through three segments: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and Outside the U.S. The U.S. Services segment offers various BPS so...
How the Company Makes Money
Maximus makes money primarily by performing outsourced services for government clients under contractual arrangements. Its revenue is largely generated from government contracts (e.g., federal, state, local, and international government agencies) ...
Maximus Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive outlook: management reported solid Q1 adjusted profitability metrics, raised full-year earnings and margin guidance, highlighted meaningful pipeline growth, and showcased AI/product momentum and strategic wins (GSA BPA, AI dispute automation, Accuracy Assistant, Forbes recognition). Counterbalancing these positives are near-term revenue declines (Q1 revenue down 4.1%), softness in US Services and Outside-the-US segments, low book-to-bill in the quarter (0.2x), and seasonal / timing-driven cash outflows and elevated DSO. Management attributes many negatives to timing (government shutdown effects, expected award timing shifts) and positioned FY26 as a year of durable margins while expecting new work to contribute more meaningfully in FY27–FY28. Overall, the positives (guidance raise, margin expansion, pipeline growth, AI wins) outweigh the near-term operational and cash timing challenges.Positive Updates
Raised Full-Year Earnings Guidance and Improved Margin Outlook
Adjusted EPS guidance increased by $0.10 to a range of $8.05–$8.35 (midpoint $8.20), implying >11% year-over-year earnings growth at the midpoint. Full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance improved by ~30 basis points to approximately 14%.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Q1
Total Q1 revenue was $1.35B, down 4.1% year-over-year. Revenue headwinds were primarily organic after accounting for a ~1.5% impact from a prior period outside-the-US divestiture.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised Full-Year Earnings Guidance and Improved Margin Outlook
Adjusted EPS guidance increased by $0.10 to a range of $8.05–$8.35 (midpoint $8.20), implying >11% year-over-year earnings growth at the midpoint. Full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance improved by ~30 basis points to approximately 14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Maximus raised FY‑2026 earnings guidance while narrowing revenue guidance to $5.20B–$5.35B, now targeting adjusted EBITDA of ~14% (up 30 bps) and adjusted EPS $8.05–$8.35 (midpoint $8.20, >11% YoY); free cash flow guidance is unchanged at $450M–$500M, interest expense is expected to be roughly $75M and the tax rate 24.5%–25.5%. Q1 results that informed the update included revenue $1.35B (‑4.1% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin 12.7% and adjusted EPS $1.85, with cash used in operations of $244M and free cash flow outflow of $251M driving DSO to 78 days; total debt was $1.58B and consolidated net leverage 1.8x (down from 1.5x at 9/30 but still below the 2–3x target and expected to finish FY‑26 at or below 1.0x absent M&A or buybacks). Segment and pipeline metrics cited: Q1 US Federal revenue $787M (+0.8%) with a 16.5% segment margin (FY guide 16.5%–17%), US Services revenue $415M with a Q1 margin of 7.1% (FY guide 10.5%–11%), Outside US revenue $143M with an estimated FY margin of 13%; signed awards totaled $246M with $699M awarded but not signed, a TTM book‑to‑bill of ~0.5x (Q1 quarterly 0.2x), and a pipeline of $59.1B (including $3.8B proposals pending, $2.4B in preparation, $52.9B tracked, 59% new work; $6.2B proposals pending+prep, +55% YoY).Maximus Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.37B | 5.43B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 4.63B | 4.25B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 1.25B | 1.16B | 934.02M | 849.35M | 902.62M |
| EBITDA | 723.27M | 674.75M | 624.28M | 456.45M | 464.76M | 502.74M |
| Net Income | 371.78M | 319.03M | 306.91M | 161.79M | 203.83M | 291.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.21B | 4.07B | 4.13B | 3.99B | 3.99B | 4.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 137.59M | 260.46M | 235.76M | 122.09M | 136.79M | 156.57M |
| Total Debt | 1.74B | 1.44B | 1.28B | 1.43B | 1.51B | 1.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.49B | 2.40B | 2.29B | 2.32B | 2.44B | 2.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.72B | 1.67B | 1.84B | 1.67B | 1.55B | 1.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 218.48M | 366.16M | 401.07M | 223.65M | 233.69M | 480.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.97M | 429.37M | 515.26M | 314.34M | 289.84M | 517.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.37M | -60.26M | -129.10M | -80.96M | -54.01M | -1.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -178.72M | -343.88M | -275.65M | -250.80M | -248.27M | 1.39B |
Maximus Technical Analysis
Negative
86.22
Price Trends
76.84
Negative
81.83
Negative
81.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.79
Positive
22.29
Positive
8.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MMS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 86.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.29, above the 50-day MA of 76.84, and above the 200-day MA of 81.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MMS.
Maximus Risk Analysis
Maximus disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maximus reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maximus Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.45B | -73.76 | 4.66% | 0.71% | 0.20% | 2.72% | |
68 Neutral | $11.18B | 25.02 | 10.17% | 1.14% | 6.35% | 24.07% | |
67 Neutral | $3.40B | 12.60 | 21.76% | 1.38% | 2.36% | 11.30% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $1.96B | -72.27 | -2.68% | ― | 93.41% | -2515.85% | |
60 Neutral | $2.27B | 17.89 | 8.80% | 2.20% | 4.62% | 102.72% | |
60 Neutral | $1.52B | 27.64 | 6.21% | ― | 59.19% | -35.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MMS
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FA
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Maximus Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Maximus Shareholders Back Board, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on March 10, 2026, Maximus, Inc. reported that 93.2% of outstanding common stock was represented, and shareholders elected eight directors, including CEO Bruce L. Caswell, to one-year terms expiring at th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.