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Maximus (MMS)
NYSE:MMS

Maximus (MMS) AI Stock Analysis

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Maximus

(NYSE:MMS)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$83.00
▲(18.91%Upside)
Maximus scores well overall, driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings call highlighting growth and innovation. The valuation remains attractive with a reasonable P/E ratio and dividend yield. Technical indicators show neutral momentum, which is consistent with its current market position. The company should focus on managing leverage and improving cash flow to maintain its competitive edge.

Maximus (MMS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Maximus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMaximus, Inc. (MMS) is a leading provider of government services worldwide, primarily focusing on health and human services programs. The company operates in three main segments: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and Outside the U.S. Maximus partners with government agencies to deliver essential services, including program management, business process outsourcing, and consulting services, to help improve public program efficiency and effectiveness.
How the Company Makes MoneyMaximus generates revenue by securing contracts with government agencies to deliver a wide range of services. The company's revenue model is primarily based on long-term contracts that involve managing and operating government health and human services programs. These contracts often include performance-based incentives, where Maximus earns additional revenue by meeting or exceeding certain service benchmarks. Significant revenue streams include providing administrative support for Medicaid and Medicare, as well as managing welfare-to-work programs and other social services. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the company's expertise in navigating complex government regulations, its ability to streamline and modernize service delivery, and its strategic partnerships with technology and consulting firms to enhance service offerings.

Maximus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.35%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong quarter with solid revenue growth and innovative achievements, particularly in AI technology implementations that improved process efficiencies. The company was recognized for its innovation, and there was strong performance in the U.S. Federal Services segment. However, there were some challenges, including impacts from government efficiency decisions and delays in federal procurement processes. Overall, the highlights outweighed the lowlights, indicating a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Revenue and Growth
Reported revenue of $1.36 billion for Q2, representing 3% organic growth year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.7%, which is at the upper end of the near-term guidance range.
Innovative Technology Implementations
Implemented AI solutions for federal contracts such as the No Surprises Act and the Department of Veterans Affairs, enhancing process efficiency and reducing manual effort.
Recognition for Innovation
Maximus was recognized by Fortune as one of America's most innovative companies, highlighting its use of AI and advanced analytics to improve government services.
Strong Segment Performance
U.S. Federal Services segment revenue increased by 10.9%, driven by strong performance in clinical assessments.
Guidance Raised
Fiscal year 2025 guidance increased to a range of $5.25 billion to $5.4 billion in revenue and an adjusted EPS range of $6.30 to $6.60 per share.
Positive Developments in Outside The U.S. Segment
Achieved mid-single-digit organic growth in the Outside The U.S. segment, driven by the UK business and the new functional assessment services contract.
Negative Updates
Impact of Government Efficiency Decisions
DOGE's decisions affected a handful of small contracts with an estimated impact of $4 million in FY 2025 revenue, though considered de minimis.
Potential Delays in Federal Procurement
Delays in federal procurement processes, particularly in civilian agencies, could impact new awards.
Higher Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
Temporary increase in DSO to seventy-three days due to delayed collections, anticipated to normalize in the fourth quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Maximus, Inc. Fiscal 2025 Second Quarter Conference Call held on May 8, 2025, the company reported strong financial results with a revenue of $1.36 billion, indicating a 3% organic growth year-over-year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.7%, which is at the upper end of their guidance range. In terms of segment performance, the U.S. Federal Services segment drove a 10.9% increase in revenue to $778 million, entirely organic, with an operating income margin of 15.3%. The U.S. Services segment experienced a revenue decrease to $442 million, reflecting the prior year's Medicaid unwinding effort, while its operating income margin was 12.2%. The Outside The U.S. segment posted a 4.6% organic growth, with a revenue of $142 million and an operating income margin of 3.4%. The company also achieved a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 0.8 times, with a total pipeline of sales opportunities valued at $41.2 billion. Despite the dynamic macro environment, Maximus raised its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $5.25 billion to $5.4 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to between $6.30 and $6.60 per share, maintaining a cautious outlook for the second half of the fiscal year.

Maximus Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Maximus demonstrates strong revenue growth and maintains healthy profit margins, indicating robust operational performance. The balance sheet shows increased leverage, which could be a risk if not managed, but equity remains strong. Cash flow generation is positive but declining, indicating a need for careful cash management. Overall, the company is financially sound but should focus on managing leverage and enhancing cash flow.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Maximus shows strong revenue growth with a 16.9% increase from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin remains solid at 23.6% for TTM, reflecting efficient cost management. However, net profit margin slightly decreased to 5.6%, suggesting some pressure on net earnings. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 9.1% and 10.9%, respectively, demonstrating good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a balanced financial structure with an equity ratio of 39.7% in TTM, indicating a stable asset base funded by equity. The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 0.97, reflecting higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, return on equity improved to 18.0%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09 for TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow decreased by 45.4% in TTM, which is a concern, but remains positive at $219 million. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.73, suggesting adequate but declining free cash flow coverage.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.40B5.31B4.90B4.63B4.25B3.46B
Gross Profit
1.27B1.25B1.03B939.81M946.98M711.00M
EBIT
493.25M488.50M294.79M325.90M408.53M288.28M
EBITDA
589.26M488.50M456.45M464.76M502.74M396.08M
Net Income Common Stockholders
300.02M306.91M161.79M203.83M291.20M214.51M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
108.06M183.12M65.41M40.66M135.06M71.74M
Total Assets
4.20B4.13B3.99B3.99B4.12B2.02B
Total Debt
1.62B1.28B1.43B1.51B1.71B213.65M
Net Debt
1.51B1.09B1.36B1.47B1.57B141.92M
Total Liabilities
2.53B2.29B2.32B2.44B2.64B782.88M
Stockholders Equity
1.67B1.84B1.67B1.55B1.48B1.24B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
219.04M401.07M223.65M233.69M480.76M203.88M
Operating Cash Flow
325.88M515.26M314.34M289.84M517.32M244.59M
Investing Cash Flow
-108.26M-129.10M-80.96M-54.01M-1.84B-44.14M
Financing Cash Flow
-180.48M-275.65M-250.80M-248.27M1.39B-230.09M

Maximus Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price69.80
Price Trends
50DMA
70.26
Negative
100DMA
69.76
Positive
200DMA
75.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Positive
RSI
43.27
Neutral
STOCH
27.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MMS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.27, below the 50-day MA of 70.26, and below the 200-day MA of 75.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MMS.

Maximus Risk Analysis

Maximus disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maximus reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Maximus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MMMMS
81
Outperform
$3.93B13.8817.36%1.72%5.29%31.95%
UNUNF
77
Outperform
$3.29B22.937.17%0.76%5.04%31.69%
CBCBZ
74
Outperform
$3.76B46.846.25%32.27%-40.50%
71
Outperform
$10.50B30.8511.77%1.05%-3.47%-45.03%
66
Neutral
$4.47B12.225.40%3.65%4.14%-12.00%
ABABM
61
Neutral
$2.80B35.974.30%2.36%3.52%-67.27%
FAFA
58
Neutral
$3.16B549.40-13.59%37.97%-499.29%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MMS
Maximus
69.80
-16.02
-18.67%
ABM
ABM Industries
44.93
-4.66
-9.40%
CBZ
CBIZ
68.86
-7.25
-9.53%
UNF
UniFirst
184.45
29.69
19.18%
ARMK
ARAMARK Holdings
40.08
6.75
20.25%
FA
First Advantage
17.77
1.44
8.82%

Maximus Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Maximus Updates By-laws for Shareholder Proposals
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Maximus, Inc. amended its By-laws to enhance disclosure requirements for shareholders proposing director nominations or business at meetings. These changes include detailed disclosure of stock ownership, performance-related fees, and material relationships, as well as compliance certifications with applicable laws. The amendments also limit the number of board nominees a shareholder can propose, prohibit substitute nominations without notice, and require updates to shareholder information. Additionally, the By-laws now align with Virginia Stock Corporation Act provisions and include technical updates.

The most recent analyst rating on (MMS) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Maximus stock, see the MMS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.