Maximus (MMS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.90B
• Dividend Yield: 1.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 796.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: 2.36%
• EPS Growth: 11.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Specialty Business Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.85
• Shares Outstanding: 54,548,576
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 666,705
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 796,259
• PEG Ratio: 1.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.65
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.47B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $80.00 ▼(-7.21% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score reflects solid underlying financial quality (improving profitability, strong ROE, and improved leverage) and a reasonable valuation, partially offset by weak technical momentum and mixed near-term execution signals (revenue softness and cash/working-capital pressure). The earnings outlook is constructive due to raised FY2026 earnings and margin guidance, but contract timing and low book-to-bill keep risk elevated.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage and strong ROE

Extremely low debt relative to equity and a high ROE provide durable financial flexibility. This capital structure supports bid competitiveness, targeted investments, and resilience through award timing swings, reducing refinancing risk and enabling opportunistic M&A or technology spending over the next 2–6 months.

Sustained margin expansion and guided improvement

Management has raised full-year margin and EPS guidance backed by demonstrated Q1 margin gains. Structural productivity gains from technology and process improvements appear to be lifting segment economics, implying more durable EBITDA margin expansion rather than a one-off seasonal spike.

Large pipeline and AI/product proofs driving future revenue

A materially expanded pipeline, plus AI/automation proof points and product launches, increase multi-quarter visibility for contract awards. Automation wins that boost throughput and accuracy can sustainably raise productivity and program margins as tracked proposals convert over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Near-term revenue softness

Revenue declines and negative trailing revenue growth reflect reduced near-term demand or timing of awards. Slower top-line trends limit the company's ability to leverage fixed costs, compress long-run growth expectations, and make margins more dependent on cost control rather than organic expansion.

Working-capital and cash-flow pressure

Elevated receivables and a quarter of negative operating and free cash flow signal structural working-capital strain. Persistent collection delays or seasonally high DSO can force short-term borrowing, constrain bid funding, and limit reinvestment capacity across the business for several quarters.

Award timing, low book-to-bill and contract uncertainty

Very low quarterly book-to-bill and outstanding protests create meaningful revenue conversion risk. Dependency on award timing in government procurement reduces near-term visibility and means that sizable pipeline gains may not translate into revenue within the upcoming fiscal year.

Maximus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Maximus, Inc. provides business process services (BPS) to government health and human services programs. It operates through three segments: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and Outside the U.S. The U.S. Services segment offers various BPS solutions, such as program administration, appeals and assessments, and related consulting works for U.S. state and local government programs, including the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, child support programs, Preadmission Screening and Resident Reviews, and Independent Developmental Disability assessments. This segment also provides program eligibility support and enrollment; centralized multilingual customer contact centers, multichannel, and digital self-service options for enrollment; application assistance and independent health plan choice counseling; beneficiary outreach, education, eligibility, enrollment, and redeterminations; person-centered independent disability, long-term sick, and other health assessments; and specialized consulting services. The U.S. Federal Services segment offers centralized citizen engagement centers and support services; document and record management; case management, citizen support, and consumer education; independent medical reviews and worker's compensation benefit appeals; Medicare and Medicaid appeals; and federal marketplace eligibility appeals. This segment also provides modernization of systems and information technology infrastructure; infrastructure operations and support services; software development, operations, and management services; and data analytics services. The Outside the U.S. segment offers BPS solutions for governments and commercial clients outside the United States, including health and disability assessments, program administration for employment services, and other job seeker-related services. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Maximus makes money primarily by performing outsourced services for government clients under contractual arrangements. Its revenue is largely generated from government contracts (e.g., federal, state, local, and international government agencies) to administer, operate, and improve public programs. These contracts typically compensate Maximus through (1) service fees tied to staffing and operations (often structured as fixed-price, time-and-materials, or cost-reimbursable arrangements depending on contract terms), (2) transaction- or volume-based fees linked to measurable units of work (such as calls handled, cases processed, or beneficiaries served), and (3) performance-based incentives or award fees when it meets or exceeds contractual service-level metrics and outcomes (for example, timeliness, quality, or other program KPIs). Significant factors influencing earnings include the scale and duration of awarded government contracts, renewals and recompetes, the company’s ability to meet performance requirements to earn incentive fees, and its cost management in delivering services. Specific details on individual contract pricing, margin structure by contract type, or named partnerships not publicly disclosed are null.

Maximus Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and returns are solid (TTM net margin ~6.9%, ROE ~21.8%) and leverage looks much improved (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.04). Offsetting this, growth has softened (TTM revenue ~-1.1%) and cash flow momentum weakened (TTM FCF down ~-40% and low OCF-to-net-income ~0.44), which reduces near-term financial momentum.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus prior years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) margins showing solid execution (gross margin ~23.8%, EBITDA margin ~12.9%, net margin ~6.9%) and EBIT/EBITDA dollars trending higher than earlier periods. However, growth has softened: annual revenue growth was modest in FY2025 (~2.4%) and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is down (~-1.1%), which limits the quality of the earnings momentum despite better margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved sharply in the latest period, with very low debt relative to equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (debt-to-equity ~0.04) versus materially higher leverage in prior annual periods (~0.69–1.15). Equity remains sizable (~$1.72B) and returns are strong (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) return on equity ~21.8%), supporting balance-sheet strength. The key watch item is the large year-to-year swing in total debt versus the annual figures, which suggests capital structure changed significantly and bears monitoring for sustainability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow of ~$218M and free cash flow running at ~82% of net income, indicating earnings are reasonably backed by cash. That said, TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow relative to net income is weak (~0.44), and free cash flow has declined sharply in the latest period (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth ~-40%), pointing to higher cash needs or working-capital pressure versus the prior year.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.37B	5.43B	5.31B	4.90B	4.63B	4.25B
Gross Profit	1.26B	1.25B	1.16B	934.02M	849.35M	902.62M
EBITDA	723.27M	674.75M	624.28M	456.45M	464.76M	502.74M
Net Income	371.78M	319.03M	306.91M	161.79M	203.83M	291.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.21B	4.07B	4.13B	3.99B	3.99B	4.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	137.59M	260.46M	235.76M	122.09M	136.79M	156.57M
Total Debt	1.74B	1.44B	1.28B	1.43B	1.51B	1.71B
Total Liabilities	2.49B	2.40B	2.29B	2.32B	2.44B	2.64B
Stockholders Equity	1.72B	1.67B	1.84B	1.67B	1.55B	1.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	218.48M	366.16M	401.07M	223.65M	233.69M	480.76M
Operating Cash Flow	264.97M	429.37M	515.26M	314.34M	289.84M	517.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-31.37M	-60.26M	-129.10M	-80.96M	-54.01M	-1.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-178.72M	-343.88M	-275.65M	-250.80M	-248.27M	1.39B

Maximus Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 86.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MMS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 86.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.63, above the 50-day MA of 83.69, and above the 200-day MA of 81.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MMS.

Maximus Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UNF	78 Outperform	$4.75B	21.89	6.45%	0.71%	0.20%	2.72%
ARMK	68 Neutral	$10.63B	25.02	10.17%	1.14%	6.35%	24.07%
MMS	67 Neutral	$3.90B	12.60	21.76%	1.38%	2.36%	11.30%
ABM	64 Neutral	$2.24B	17.89	8.80%	2.20%	4.62%	102.72%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FA	63 Neutral	$1.86B	-72.27	-2.68%	―	93.41%	-2515.85%
CBZ	60 Neutral	$1.46B	27.64	6.21%	―	59.19%	-35.47%

Maximus Corporate Events

Maximus Shareholders Back Board, Executive Pay and Auditor

At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on March 10, 2026, Maximus, Inc. reported that 93.2% of outstanding common stock was represented, and shareholders elected eight directors, including CEO Bruce L. Caswell, to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. Investors also ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as independent auditor for the 2026 fiscal year and approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, signaling broad shareholder support for current leadership, governance structure, and financial oversight.

These voting outcomes suggest continuity in Maximus’s strategic direction and executive team, which may reassure stakeholders about the stability of its operations and governance framework. The strong support for the board slate, executive pay program, and external auditor underscores shareholder confidence in how the company is being managed and its approach to financial reporting and oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (MMS) stock is a Hold with a $82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Maximus stock, see the MMS Stock Forecast page.

Maximus Announces Upcoming Chief Legal Officer Transition

On December 15, 2025, Maximus, Inc. announced that its Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary, John T. Martinez, has notified the company of his intention to resign effective February 15, 2026, to pursue a new opportunity more closely aligned with his industry background and experience. The company stated that the decision was not the result of any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices, and Martinez will remain in his current role until his departure while Maximus conducts a search for his replacement, signaling an orderly legal and governance leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (MMS) stock is a Buy with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Maximus stock, see the MMS Stock Forecast page.