MongoDB (MDB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.94B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.79
• Revenue Growth: 20.93%
• EPS Growth: 68.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,558
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 1.65
• Shares Outstanding: 80,369,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,627,396
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,340,841
• PEG Ratio: 8.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 12.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 60.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.12K
• 1Y Price Target: $359.42
• Price Target Upside: 37.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 26
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.90B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $278.00 ▲(6.72% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (low leverage and strong, improving free cash flow) and a solid earnings-call outlook with continued growth and margin expansion. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and limited valuation support due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Substantially reduced leverage and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund R&D, absorb shocks, pursue strategic M&A or rollback capital to shareholders. The structural improvement vs. 2022–2024 lowers refinancing risk and supports multiyear investments.

Improving free cash flow

Consistent, rapidly improving FCF marks a structural inflection: it funds operations, share buybacks, and RSU tax settlements without adding debt. Sustained FCF growth increases strategic optionality and reduces reliance on external capital over a multi‑quarter horizon.

Atlas market momentum

Atlas is a durable competitive engine: large share of revenue, strong recurring cloud growth, rising ARR and expanding large-customer cohorts. Its hyperscaler partnerships and developer adoption underpin sustainable structural demand for cloud database services.

Negative Factors

Guidance-driven growth deceleration

Management's lower FY27 growth target signals a structural slowdown versus recent pace, reflecting tougher comps and moderated top-line momentum. A sustained lower growth trajectory would constrain long-term revenue expansion assumptions and require sustained margin gains to offset.

Revenue lumpiness from large multiyear deals

Heavy dependence on a small number of large bundled enterprise deals reduces predictability of recognized revenue and Atlas growth. This structural lumpiness complicates forecasting, resource planning and visibility over several quarters, increasing execution risk.

GAAP profitability not yet consistent

Although margins and non‑GAAP profits are improving, persistent TTM GAAP losses indicate the business has not fully converted scale into consistent GAAP profitability. Sustained structural margin expansion is required to ensure durable earnings resilience across cycles.

MongoDB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MongoDB, Inc. provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company offers MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premise, or in a hybrid environment; MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB. It also provides professional services comprising consulting and training. The company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. and changed its name to MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013. MongoDB, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MongoDB generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model that includes various tiers of service for its software products, including on-premises licenses and cloud-based offerings via MongoDB Atlas. Key revenue streams include subscriptions for its enterprise and community editions, support services, and cloud services. The company also earns revenue from professional services, such as consulting and training. Significant partnerships with cloud providers, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, enhance its market reach and customer acquisition, contributing to its overall earnings.

MongoDB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet (very low leverage, sizable equity base) and clearly positive, rapidly improving free cash flow support a higher score. Offsetting this, GAAP profitability is not yet consistently positive and revenue growth has moderated, keeping the score below top-tier.

Income Statement

MongoDB shows strong top-line scale and durable gross profitability, with revenue reaching $2.46B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and gross margin holding ~72%. Growth has moderated meaningfully (TTM revenue growth ~6% vs. much higher levels in earlier years), but profitability is improving: losses have narrowed materially from 2022–2023 levels to a modest net loss in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~-3% net margin). The key weakness remains that operating results are still negative (EBIT and EBITDA below zero), indicating the model has not yet consistently crossed into GAAP profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has strengthened significantly, highlighted by very low leverage in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (debt-to-equity ~0.01) and a large equity base (~$3.0B) supporting a ~$3.76B asset base. This is a major improvement versus 2022–2024, when leverage was much higher (debt-to-equity >1). The main drawback is that returns on equity remain negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting continued net losses despite the improved capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), operating cash flow is ~$513M and free cash flow is ~$510M, with very strong free-cash-flow growth (~44%). This marks a major inflection from 2021–2023 when operating and free cash flow were weak or negative. A remaining watch item is that cash flow performance can be volatile year-to-year, but the current trajectory is firmly positive and supportive of funding operations without relying on debt.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.46B	2.01B	1.68B	1.28B	873.78M
Gross Profit	1.77B	1.47B	1.26B	934.74M	614.29M
EBITDA	-29.32M	-96.53M	-122.34M	-294.27M	-267.12M
Net Income	-71.15M	-129.07M	-176.60M	-345.40M	-306.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.76B	3.43B	2.87B	2.59B	2.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.39B	2.34B	2.02B	1.84B	1.83B
Total Debt	32.86M	36.50M	1.18B	1.18B	1.18B
Total Liabilities	806.49M	648.07M	1.80B	1.85B	1.78B
Stockholders Equity	2.95B	2.78B	1.07B	739.51M	666.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	500.19M	120.64M	115.40M	-20.21M	-1.09M
Operating Cash Flow	505.15M	150.19M	121.48M	-12.97M	6.98M
Investing Cash Flow	538.82M	-657.44M	188.02M	-33.31M	-852.14M
Financing Cash Flow	-462.44M	202.06M	38.24M	30.20M	890.89M

MongoDB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 260.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 260.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 303.92, below the 50-day MA of 355.09, and below the 200-day MA of 308.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -28.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MDB.

MongoDB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MDB	70 Outperform	$20.94B	-424.02	-2.41%	―	20.93%	68.47%
DOCN	68 Neutral	$6.31B	42.89	-214.15%	―	14.20%	204.86%
ESTC	63 Neutral	$5.33B	224.68	-9.44%	―	16.98%	-265.85%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SNOW	60 Neutral	$61.14B	―	-60.27%	―	28.48%	-19.12%
CFLT	58 Neutral	$11.02B	-35.21	-26.98%	―	21.58%	18.88%

MongoDB Corporate Events

MongoDB Announces Leadership Changes and Governance Enhancements

MongoDB reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on March 2, 2026, with revenue up 27% year-over-year to $695.1 million and full-year revenue up 23% to $2.46 billion, driven by strong Atlas growth and broad-based demand across product lines. The company delivered GAAP breakeven operating results, stronger non-GAAP profitability, robust free cash flow of $176.7 million for the quarter and expanded its customer base to more than 65,200, underscoring improved operating leverage and a rule-of-40 profile.

Product and ecosystem moves focused heavily on AI, including integrating its core database with Voyage AI models, launching new embedding and vector search capabilities, debuting AI-powered data operations assistants and expanding the MongoDB for Startups program, which now spans startups with over $200 billion in aggregate valuation. MongoDB also deepened its strategic positioning with hyperscaler partners, being recognized as AWS Global Technology Partner of the Year, highlighting the importance of Atlas within cloud-based AI and modernization workloads.

The company announced several leadership and governance changes, including the planned April 15, 2026 resignation of President, Field Operations Cedric Pech under a separation agreement and the departures of President of Field Operations and the Chief Revenue Officer as part of a long-planned go-to-market transition. To support its next phase of growth, MongoDB appointed former Deloitte and ServiceNow executive Erica Volini as Chief Customer Officer, named Kong Phan as Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer effective April 14, 2026, temporarily designated CFO Michael Berry as interim principal accounting officer, and amended its bylaws to introduce proxy access for long-term shareholders.

MongoDB issued guidance for the first quarter and full fiscal year 2027 indicating continued double-digit top-line growth alongside a gap between GAAP and non-GAAP profitability as it continues to invest in growth and AI initiatives. The outlook, combined with rising operating efficiency and a strengthened governance framework that broadens shareholder nomination rights, suggests the company is balancing aggressive expansion in AI and cloud data markets with increasing attention to margin discipline and investor influence.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDB) stock is a Buy with a $425.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MongoDB stock, see the MDB Stock Forecast page.