Spectral AI (MDAI)
NASDAQ:MDAI
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Spectral AI
(NASDAQ:MDAI)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(58.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
Overall score reflects pressured financial performance (losses, cash burn, negative equity) as the primary drag, partially offset by constructive technical momentum and a more positive earnings-call outlook driven by BARDA funding support and progress toward FDA clearance, though commercialization and revenue timing risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
Non-dilutive BARDA Funding
Substantial non-dilutive BARDA support materially extends runway and finances feature development and early placements without equity issuance. This funding lowers near-term financing risk, enables product maturity and initial deployments, and strengthens government partnership through 2028–2030.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet
Persistent negative shareholders' equity combined with rising debt constrains financial flexibility and increases reliance on external funding. This leverage profile limits strategic options, raises refinancing risk, and could force dilutive financing or restrictive covenants during the commercialization phase.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Non-dilutive BARDA Funding
Substantial non-dilutive BARDA support materially extends runway and finances feature development and early placements without equity issuance. This funding lowers near-term financing risk, enables product maturity and initial deployments, and strengthens government partnership through 2028–2030.
Read all positive factors
Spectral AI (MDAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$77.33M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)272.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth-44.27%
EPS Growth-0.39%
CountryUS
Employees78
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.53
Shares Outstanding31,823,984
10 Day Avg. Volume290,415
30 Day Avg. Volume272,420
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)-6.58
Price to Sales (P/S)1.92
P/FCF Ratio-3.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside184.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.86M
Spectral AI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Spectral AI, Inc. operates as an artificial intelligence (AI) company. The company focuses on medical diagnostics for faster and accurate treatment decisions in wound care with applications involving patients with burns and diabetic foot ulcers. I...
How the Company Makes Money
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Spectral AI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive progression: key clinical and regulatory milestones (successful validation study, de novo submission and response) and a substantial BARDA funding acceleration materially de-risk near-term development. Financially, liquidity improved materially (cash tripled) and operating efficiencies reduced losses. However, there are meaningful near-term headwinds and uncertainties — reduced reimbursed R&D revenue as BARDA base-phase work winds down, continued full-year loss, dependence on BARDA and FDA timing, and revenue recognition/timing risks around BARDA-subsidized device placements. On balance the call emphasized tangible progress toward commercialization and improved financial footing while acknowledging execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
FDA De Novo Submission and Active Engagement
Submitted de novo application in June 2025; received an additional information request from FDA and the company responded timely earlier this month. Management is hopeful for a positive FDA determination before the end of Q2 2026.
Negative Updates
Decline in Quarterly R&D Revenue
Research and development revenue for Q4 2025 was $3.8M versus $7.6M in Q4 2024, a decline of roughly 50%, driven by the anticipated reduction in reimbursed direct labor and clinical trial costs as BARDA base-phase work wound down.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
FDA De Novo Submission and Active Engagement
Submitted de novo application in June 2025; received an additional information request from FDA and the company responded timely earlier this month. Management is hopeful for a positive FDA determination before the end of Q2 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted a 2026 revenue forecast of approximately $18.5 million (excluding significant DeepView sales) and a hoped-for FDA decision before the end of Q2 2026; BARDA provided $31.7 million of advanced funding (company committed an additional $9.7 million) as part of a Project BioShield contract valued up to $150 million (with $55 million previously awarded), which can subsidize up to 30 initial DeepView systems and a further 140 systems; the company ended 2025 with $15.4 million cash (up from $5.2 million), $8.5 million total debt and ~30.7 million shares outstanding. Recent operating metrics: Q4 2025 R&D revenue $3.8M (vs $7.6M), FY R&D revenue $19.7M (vs $29.6M), Q4 gross margin 39.8% (vs 44.0%), FY gross margin 45.4% (vs 44.9%), Q4 G&A $4.0M (vs $4.5M), FY G&A $17.5M (vs $19.9M), Q4 net income $0.6M ($0.02/diluted) vs Q4 2024 net loss $7.7M (-$0.41), and FY net loss $7.6M (-$0.29) vs $15.3M (-$0.85) in 2024 (FY results included a $4.0M warrant liability gain). Key program milestones: completed a 15-month burn validation study with 164 patients across 15 centers, delivered UKCA for the burn indication in 2024, will target handheld prototype delivery and BARDA/MTEC Phase II completion by end of Q2 2026, and expects initial commercial placements in late 2026 with a material revenue ramp in 2027–2028; BARDA support and contract activity extend through 2030 with acceleration through 2028.Spectral AI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.70M | 19.65M | 29.58M | 18.06M | 25.37M | 15.24M |
| Gross Profit | 7.47M | 8.93M | 13.27M | 7.88M | 10.84M | 7.05M |
| EBITDA | -9.61M | -7.97M | -11.49M | -20.12M | -2.08M | -4.18M |
| Net Income | -14.29M | -7.57M | -15.31M | -20.85M | -2.91M | -3.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.73M | 21.41M | 12.10M | 10.69M | 18.72M | 18.54M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.65M | 15.39M | 5.16M | 4.79M | 14.17M | 16.12M |
| Total Debt | 9.94M | 10.09M | 4.69M | 1.29M | 1.20M | 583.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 26.54M | 27.13M | 19.35M | 12.40M | 6.72M | 4.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | -8.81M | -5.73M | -7.25M | -1.71M | 12.00M | 13.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.41M | -9.92M | -9.20M | -13.24M | -1.16M | -2.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -12.14M | -9.92M | -9.20M | -13.24M | -1.16M | -2.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -7.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.73M | 20.12M | 9.57M | 3.84M | -785.00K | 13.92M |
Spectral AI Technical Analysis
Positive
1.58
Price Trends
1.85
Positive
1.70
Positive
1.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
69.15
Neutral
89.50
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, below the 50-day MA of 1.85, and below the 200-day MA of 1.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDAI.
Spectral AI Risk Analysis
Spectral AI disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Spectral AI reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Spectral AI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
52 Neutral | $77.33M | -3.42 | 129.21% | ― | -44.27% | -0.39% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $54.65M | -6.24 | -15.79% | ― | -42.94% | -529.29% | |
47 Neutral | $16.18M | -1.30 | -211.73% | ― | 8.92% | 17.49% | |
46 Neutral | $29.50M | -1.73 | -165.13% | ― | 7.72% | 34.39% | |
46 Neutral | $35.26M | -4.71 | -98.33% | ― | 10.98% | 41.82% | |
44 Neutral | $65.05M | -0.99 | -82.79% | ― | 1.23% | 10.65% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MDAI
Spectral AI
2.64
1.27
92.70%
CTSO
Cytosorbents
0.46
-0.39
-45.82%
SRTS
Sensus Healthcare
3.23
-1.45
-30.98%
NMTC
NeuroOne Medical Technologies
3.90
0.20
5.52%
LUNG
Pulmonx
1.54
-1.58
-50.64%
ICCM
Icecure Medical
0.24
-0.77
-76.50%
Spectral AI Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Spectral AI Finalizes CEO Employment Agreement and Compensation
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 17, 2026, Spectral AI’s board approved an employment agreement formalizing Vincent S. Capone’s role as Chief Executive Officer, reflecting his start date of February 9, 2026 and earlier appointment announced in February. The p...
Executive/Board Changes
Spectral AI Appoints David McGuire as New CFO
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
Spectral AI, Inc. has appointed David McGuire as its Chief Financial Officer, effective May 4, 2026, following an April 8, 2026 announcement by the board. McGuire brings more than 20 years of finance and accounting experience, including senior rol...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Spectral AI Reports 2025 Results, Projects 2026 Revenue Outlook
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
Spectral AI, Inc., a Dallas-based predictive AI company focused on wound care diagnostics for burn patients through its DeepView System, reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. The company, which ai...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingProduct-Related Announcements
Spectral AI Secures Major BARDA Funding for DeepView
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Spectral AI announced it had been awarded $31.7 million in additional non-dilutive funding from the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority to accelerate new feature development for its DeepView System, an AI...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.