Lumen Technologies (LUMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.65B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -4.56%
• EPS Growth: 23.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 1,024,369,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,520,161
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,833,282
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -6.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.91
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.96
• 1Y Price Target: $7.66
• Price Target Upside: 17.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.92B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▲(0.15% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/15/26

The score is held back primarily by weak underlying financial performance (declining revenue, losses, and prior balance-sheet strain), partially offset by a constructive earnings outlook and balance-sheet improvement highlighted on the latest call. Technicals are moderately supportive with price above major moving averages, while valuation remains difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet deleveraging from AT&T sale

The AT&T divestiture materially reduced secured debt and annual interest expense, improving liquidity and lowering refinance risk. This structurally increases financial flexibility to fund modernization, service expansion and deleveraging efforts over multiple years.

Large prefunded PCF pipeline

A ~$13B, largely prefunded PCF backlog provides multi-year funded expansion of fiber capacity with limited near-term capex burden. Prefunding cushions cash flow while expanding addressable enterprise footprint and supports durable future revenue from higher-value services.

Lower capex and sustained cost savings

A permanent reduction in capital intensity plus realized cost-out run rates improves free cash flow potential and margin sustainability. Lower recurring capex and ongoing $700M+ cost saves create structural support for EBITDA and deleveraging over the 2–4 year horizon.

Negative Factors

Persistent multi-year revenue decline

A long-term secular revenue contraction signals loss of legacy services and difficulty replacing volume. Shrinking top-line reduces scale economics, pressures gross margins and makes achieving sustained profitability and growth targets more challenging without clear offsetting revenue drivers.

High leverage and weakened equity cushion

Even after asset sales, elevated debt and an eroded equity buffer constrain strategic optionality and increase refinancing and covenant sensitivity. In a capital-intensive telecom model, limited capital cushion raises structural funding and execution risk during industry cycles.

Timing and execution risk for PCF revenue

PCF deals are prefunded but revenue and margin realization depend on multi-year construction and customer acceptance. Delays, supply or execution issues can defer revenue and cash conversion, making projected EBITDA and FCF improvements contingent on sustained build execution.

Lumen Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lumen Technologies, Inc., a facilities-based technology and communications company, provides various integrated products and services under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands to business and residential customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers compute and application services, such as cloud services, IT solutions, unified communication and collaboration solutions, colocation and data center services, content delivery services, and managed security services; and IP and data services, including VPN data network, Ethernet, internet protocol (IP), and voice over internet protocol. The company also provides fiber infrastructure services comprising high bandwidth optical wavelength networks; and unlit optical fiber and related professional services. In addition, it offers voice and other services, including private line services, a direct circuit or channel specifically dedicated for connecting two or more organizational sites; a portfolio of traditional time division multiplexing voice services; and synchronous optical network-based Ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 4.5 million broadband subscribers. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Lumen primarily makes money by selling recurring connectivity and network services, typically under monthly service arrangements and longer-term contracts to enterprise, government, and wholesale customers, and by providing consumer broadband and voice services in its remaining consumer footprint. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Enterprise and government network services—selling fiber and IP connectivity (e.g., dedicated data transport and internet access), VPN/SD-WAN-type networking, and related managed services; (2) Wholesale services—leasing network capacity and providing transport and interconnection services to other carriers, internet service providers, content networks, and other bandwidth buyers; and (3) Consumer services—charging subscription fees for residential broadband and legacy voice where offered. In addition to access and transport, Lumen earns revenue from add-on services layered on top of connectivity (such as managed network operations, security services, and other IT/network-related managed offerings), which increase average revenue per customer and reduce churn. Revenue is influenced by the scale and utilization of its owned network assets (fiber routes, long-haul and metro networks, and central office facilities), customer demand for bandwidth, pricing/competition in telecom markets, and the mix shift between legacy voice services and higher-growth fiber and IP services. Specific, material partnership terms are not available (null).

Lumen Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials remain pressured by multi-year revenue decline, volatile profitability with losses in 2025, and a historically weakened balance sheet (negative equity in 2025). Operating cash flow is still strong, but free cash flow fell sharply in 2025, limiting deleveraging capacity.

Income Statement

Revenue has been in persistent decline (down from ~$20.7B in 2020 to ~$12.4B in 2025), signaling ongoing core business pressure. Profitability is highly volatile: a strong 2021 was followed by a major 2023 collapse and a return to losses in 2025 (net margin about -14%), with EBIT also negative in 2025. Gross margin has compressed sharply in the latest year versus prior periods, reinforcing that the earnings profile remains unstable and restructuring/impairment risk appears elevated.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a central concern. Total debt remains very high (~$17.7B in 2025), and equity has turned negative in 2025, which materially weakens balance-sheet flexibility and makes leverage metrics less meaningful/less supportive. While total assets are sizable (~$34.3B), the erosion from positive equity (2022) to near-zero (2023–2024) and then negative (2025) highlights a significantly reduced capital cushion for a cyclical/competitive telecom environment.

Cash Flow

Cash generation from operations is still a relative bright spot: operating cash flow was strong in 2025 (~$4.7B) and improved versus 2024. However, free cash flow has deteriorated materially (down to ~$0.37B in 2025 from ~$1.10B in 2024 and ~$3.60B in 2021), indicating heavier capital needs and/or weaker underlying economics. With ongoing net losses and shrinking free cash flow, deleveraging capacity looks constrained despite solid operating cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.40B	13.11B	14.56B	17.48B	19.69B
Gross Profit	3.02B	6.41B	7.41B	9.61B	11.20B
EBITDA	1.32B	4.10B	-6.09B	3.58B	8.52B
Net Income	-1.74B	-55.00M	-10.30B	-1.55B	2.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.34B	33.50B	34.02B	45.61B	57.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.00B	1.89B	2.23B	1.25B	354.00M
Total Debt	17.71B	19.12B	21.30B	22.00B	31.17B
Total Liabilities	35.46B	33.03B	33.60B	35.24B	46.15B
Stockholders Equity	-1.12B	464.00M	417.00M	10.37B	11.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	371.00M	1.10B	-940.00M	1.72B	3.60B
Operating Cash Flow	4.74B	4.33B	2.16B	4.74B	6.50B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.30B	-2.83B	-1.20B	5.48B	-2.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.32B	-1.85B	-18.00M	-9.31B	-3.81B

Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.83, below the 50-day MA of 7.66, and below the 200-day MA of 6.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUMN.

Lumen Technologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TKC	72 Outperform	$5.25B	10.60	7.24%	5.57%	19.02%	9.26%
PHI	64 Neutral	$4.67B	9.02	24.66%	7.78%	0.59%	8.86%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
TEO	60 Neutral	$5.14B	-36.64	-2.67%	0.40%	15.38%	-292.52%
AD	60 Neutral	$3.92B	15.83	8.13%	42.91%	-25.64%	―
TDS	56 Neutral	$4.36B	-757.27	-0.13%	0.39%	-22.79%	79.90%
LUMN	55 Neutral	$6.65B	-4.44	267.95%	―	-4.56%	23.46%

Lumen Technologies Corporate Events

Lumen Technologies Announces Leadership Transition and New President

On March 13, 2026, Lumen Technologies announced that Board Chair T. Michael Glenn and Audit Committee Chair Hal Stanley Jones will retire from the board and not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, with the company stating their departures do not stem from any disagreement. General Kevin P. Chilton, a director since 2017, has been selected to assume the role of Board Chair following the meeting, subject to his re-election, signaling an orderly transition of board leadership.

Also on March 13, 2026, the board appointed longtime finance chief Christopher D. Stansbury as Lumen’s President, elevating him from his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, where he oversaw global finance, treasury, investor relations and supply chain. As part of this management reshuffle, Kathleen Johnson will remain Chief Executive Officer but relinquish the President title, clarifying the senior leadership structure and potentially sharpening executive focus on strategy and financial execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Delivers Q4 Results and Deleveraging Milestone

On Feb. 3, 2026, Lumen Technologies reported solid fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and highlighted the completion of its $5.75 billion transaction with AT&T, which reduced total debt by more than $4.8 billion, lowered net leverage below 4x, cut annual interest expense by nearly 45% and reduced capex by over $1 billion, boosting financial flexibility. For 2025, Lumen generated $12.4 billion in revenue, $3.36 billion in Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items and $1.04 billion in free cash flow (excluding special items), while posting a net loss of $1.74 billion, and it delivered Q4 revenue of $3.04 billion, a small net loss, and Adjusted EBITDA at the high end of guidance despite an earlier RDOF-related impact. Operationally, the company exceeded its cost-reduction target with over $400 million in run-rate savings exiting 2025 and set sights on $700 million in savings by the end of 2026 and $1 billion by the end of 2027, underpinning expected Adjusted EBITDA growth and its AI-focused network modernization strategy; at the same time, North America enterprise growth revenue reached 52% in the fourth quarter, PCF sales approached $13 billion, and NaaS customers rose 29%, signaling traction in its shift toward higher-value enterprise services even as overall revenues declined year over year.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Appoints New Chief Revenue Officer

Lumen Technologies announced a leadership change in its revenue organization, with Executive Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer Ashley Haynes-Gaspar set to leave her role and provide transition services through March 6, 2026. Effective February 4, 2026, Jeffery S. Sharritts will assume the position of Executive Vice President, Chief Revenue Officer, marking a significant shift in the company’s commercial leadership as it manages continuity in its go-to-market operations, with Haynes-Gaspar receiving agreed compensation and equity treatment in connection with her departure subject to her continued service through the transition period.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Sells Mass Markets Fiber, Refocuses on Enterprise

On February 2, 2026, Lumen Technologies completed the $5.75 billion cash sale of its Mass Markets consumer fiber-to-the-home business in 11 states, including the Quantum Fiber brand, to AT&T. The deal transfers a network that serves more than 1 million fiber customers and reaches over 4 million enabled locations, while Lumen retains its national and regional fiber backbone, central offices, associated real estate, enterprise and wholesale fiber customers, and copper-based consumer services. Lumen plans to deploy roughly $4.8 billion of the proceeds and cash on hand to retire all of its super priority debt and redeem certain secured notes, moves that are expected to cut annual interest expense by about $300 million and reduce total debt to under $13 billion, leaving net debt below four times adjusted EBITDA. Management framed the divestiture as a strategic inflection point that sharpens Lumen’s focus as a pure-play, enterprise-focused technology infrastructure provider, supporting its push to expand a high-capacity, low-latency fiber network, ‘cloudify’ its digital platform, and deepen partnerships with technology and data-center players in the AI-driven networking market.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Upsizes Senior Notes to Restructure Debt

On January 9, 2026, Level 3 Financing, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lumen Technologies, completed an upsized $650 million issuance of additional 8.500% Senior Notes due 2036, bringing the total size of this series to $1.9 billion, with proceeds primarily used to fund the purchase of existing second-lien notes tendered in recently concluded cash tender offers and to cover related interest, fees and expenses, with any remaining funds earmarked for general corporate purposes. The new senior unsecured notes, which carry guarantees from the parent and key domestic subsidiaries and include customary covenants, redemption options and change-of-control protections, are part of a broader balance-sheet restructuring that also saw, as of December 23, 2025 and January 8, 2026, the execution of supplemental indentures and consent-driven amendments that strip most restrictive covenants and collateral from several series of existing second-lien notes, signaling Lumen’s move to simplify its debt stack, increase financial flexibility and shift value from secured to unsecured creditors within its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies expands 2036 senior notes for liability management

On January 5, 2026, Lumen Technologies announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Level 3 Financing planned a private offering of additional 8.500% Senior Notes due 2036, later pricing $650 million of these notes, up from the initially targeted $600 million, as a further issuance to the $1.25 billion already sold on December 23, 2025. The proceeds are intended primarily to finance the purchase of remaining outstanding Second Lien Notes targeted in cash tender offers launched on December 8, 2025, and any excess will go to transaction costs and general corporate purposes, marking another step in Lumen’s ongoing liability management efforts that could reshape its debt profile and interest-cost structure for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.