Dorian LPG (LPG) AI Stock Analysis

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Dorian LPG

(NYSE:LPG)

74Outperform

Dorian LPG demonstrates strong financial health and operational efficiency, positioning it well in the oil and gas midstream industry. Despite recent revenue declines and technical bearish signals, its low valuation and positive earnings guidance provide a balanced outlook. Geopolitical risks and cash flow challenges are considerations for investors.

Dorian LPG (LPG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$778.61M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)911.91K

Price to Earnings (P/E)5.2

Beta (1Y)1.08

Revenue Growth-24.25%

EPS Growth-48.08%

CountryUS

Employees577

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength44

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.92

Shares Outstanding42,804,478

10 Day Avg. Volume1,069,276

30 Day Avg. Volume911,914

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)2.35

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)10.20

P/FCF Ratio8.10

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$29.00

Price Target Upside41.19% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Dorian LPG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDorian LPG Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) through its LPG tankers worldwide. The company owns and operates very large gas carriers (VLGCs). As of May 27, 2022, its fleet consisted of twenty-two VLGCs. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes MoneyDorian LPG generates revenue by providing shipping services for liquefied petroleum gas through its fleet of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs). The company earns money primarily from time charters and spot market voyages. In time charters, Dorian LPG leases its vessels to customers for a fixed period, providing steady and predictable income. In the spot market, the company offers its vessels for single voyages, which can offer higher earnings potential based on market conditions but also carry more risk. Additionally, Dorian LPG may engage in partnerships or joint ventures with other shipping or energy companies to optimize fleet utilization and expand service offerings. Key factors influencing its earnings include global LPG demand, shipping rates, fuel costs, and regulatory changes impacting maritime operations.

Dorian LPG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dorian LPG demonstrates strong financial health with high profitability, effective cash conversion, and a solid equity position. Although revenue decline in the latest period warrants attention, the company's low leverage and strong cash flow provide a stable foundation for future growth, positioning it well within the fossil fuels industry.

Income Statement

Very Positive

The company shows strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 52.7% and a net profit margin of 38.5% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue growth was robust between 2022 and 2023, with a 42% increase, though it slightly decreased in the subsequent year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 43.1% and 58.0%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the declining revenue trend from 2023 to 2024 TTM could be a concern if it continues.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 58.7% for TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.21, indicating limited leverage and prudent financial management. Return on equity stands at a robust 15.1%. While the company has reduced its debt significantly, maintaining a strong cash position, the declining asset base needs monitoring.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

The cash flow statement shows strong operational cash flow with an impressive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.7 for TTM, highlighting effective cash conversion. Free cash flow growth is substantial, with free cash flow almost tripling from 2022 to 2024. However, negative investing cash flow indicates high capital expenditures, which may need to be scrutinized for returns.

TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
418.84M	560.72M	389.75M	274.22M	315.94M	333.43M
	Gross Profit
220.65M	365.24M	228.05M	112.99M	147.71M	182.58M
	EBIT
180.33M	328.83M	198.36M	92.40M	116.10M	161.07M
	EBITDA
243.08M	397.50M	261.76M	151.57M	197.84M	216.09M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
161.32M	307.45M	172.44M	71.94M	92.56M	111.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
290.95M	294.04M	236.76M	79.33M	63.31M	30.84M
	Total Assets
750.58M	1.84B	1.61B	1.58B	1.67B	1.63B
	Total Debt
132.25M	796.81M	670.84M	609.14M	661.84M	696.09M
	Net Debt
-158.71M	514.30M	434.08M	529.81M	613.45M	665.25M
	Total Liabilities
154.24M	814.12M	687.21M	634.79M	694.91M	712.69M
	Stockholders Equity
596.33M	1.02B	920.15M	946.83M	977.05M	912.68M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
246.07M	355.19M	95.51M	161.09M	149.01M	4.86M
	Operating Cash Flow
276.65M	388.04M	118.70M	170.60M	169.04M	8.88M
	Investing Cash Flow
-28.99M	-34.80M	68.77M	1.02M	-33.14M	-4.52M
	Financing Cash Flow
-141.41M	-219.72M	-35.18M	-174.48M	-114.65M	-67.01M

Dorian LPG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price20.54

Price Trends

50DMA

21.77

Negative

100DMA

22.81

Negative

200DMA

28.12

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.15

Negative

RSI

48.11

Neutral

STOCH

25.73

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.37, below the 50-day MA of 21.77, and below the 200-day MA of 28.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPG.

Dorian LPG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVGS	75 Outperform	$865.77M	10.49	7.14%	1.60%	2.89%	8.17%
LPG	74 Outperform	$778.61M	5.24	15.72%	―	-24.25%	-48.08%
STNG	72 Outperform	$1.78B	2.59	24.68%	4.48%	-7.25%	31.85%
NAT	68 Neutral	$535.73M	11.35	8.91%	13.44%	-2.37%	-52.77%
FLNG	65 Neutral	$1.19B	10.32	14.23%	13.35%	-3.95%	-2.25%
GLNG	64 Neutral	$3.49B	68.44	2.43%	2.68%	-12.75%	―
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.56B	4.34	-4.83%	6.50%	-0.19%	-64.60%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

LPG

Dorian LPG

20.54

-14.28

-41.01%

GLNG

Golar LNG

37.27

13.20

54.84%

NAT

Nordic American Tanker

2.53

-0.93

-26.88%

STNG

Scorpio Tankers

35.69

-32.92

-47.98%

NVGS

Navigator Holdings

12.50

-2.38

-15.99%

FLNG

FLEX LNG

22.47

0.04

0.18%

Dorian LPG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 31, 2025 | % Change Since: -16.71% | Next Earnings Date: May 22, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a balanced view of the company's performance with positive highlights such as consistent dividends, fuel efficiency improvements, and a strong financial position. However, there are some concerns about cash flow, geopolitical challenges, and rising interest costs. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a focus on maintaining financial flexibility and market position.

Highlights

Consistent Dividend Policy

The company declared a dividend of $0.70 per share, consistent with its policy of aligning shareholder returns with market realities, despite a heavy dry docking schedule.

Fuel Savings and Efficiency Improvements

Achieving fuel savings higher than 10% from energy-saving devices and silicon paints. This results in payback periods of less than a year and continuous fuel and cost emissions savings.

Strong Financial Position

Reported $314.5 million in free cash with a debt-to-total book capitalization at 34.8% and net debt to total cap at 15%.

Positive Market Outlook

Expectations of production growth and terminal expansions at Targa and Nederland by the second half of 2025. Deliveries of only 11 ships this year support a healthy freight market.

Ammonia Capable Fleet Expansion

Upgrading fleet to be ammonia capable with one VLGC already on water and plans to retrofit two more ships this year.

Lowlights

Cash Flow and Dividend Payout

Free cash declined from the previous quarter, with $42.6 million in irregular dividends paid and $2.8 million in vessel CapEx.

Market and Geopolitical Challenges

Volatile political environment and geopolitical uncertainties, including developments in Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East, may influence the market.

Interest Cost Increase

Lowest cost hedges rolling off at the end of the quarter, resulting in a 30 basis point increase in debt cost starting fiscal Q1 2026.

Company Guidance

During the Dorian LPG Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management provided optimistic guidance despite a challenging market environment. The company declared a $0.70 per share dividend, reflecting confidence in their financial health with a reported $314.5 million in free cash and a debt-to-total book capitalization ratio of 34.8%. They highlighted a TCE revenue per available day of approximately $36,100, with expectations for the next quarter to exceed $37,000 per day. Operational efficiencies were emphasized, including over 10% fuel savings from energy-saving devices, and ongoing preparation for ammonia transport capabilities. The company is strategically positioned with a strong balance sheet, ready to navigate market uncertainties while focusing on capital allocation, fleet renewal opportunities, and maintaining a balance between shareholder returns and business needs.

Dorian LPG Corporate Events

DividendsFinancial Disclosures

Dorian LPG Announces Dividend and Financial Results Plan

Positive

Jan 24, 2025

On January 24, 2025, Dorian LPG Ltd. announced that its Board of Directors declared an irregular cash dividend of $0.70 per share, amounting to approximately $30 million, payable on February 27, 2025, to shareholders of record as of February 5, 2025. Additionally, the company plans to release its unaudited financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2024, on January 31, 2025, followed by an earnings conference call. Preliminary financial data for the quarter indicates expected time charter equivalent revenues between $78.7 million and $80.7 million, with vessel operating expenses ranging from $20.4 million to $22.4 million, and cash reserves of approximately $313.5 million to $315.5 million.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.