Lipocine (LPCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.59M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 49.60K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 650.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 10081.34%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 16
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 5,350,356
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 31,466
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 49,598
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.40
• 1Y Price Target: $8.00
• Price Target Upside: 158.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Lipocine's financial recovery is promising, with a strong balance sheet and reduced operational volatility. However, challenges remain in achieving consistent profitability and cash flow generation. Technical indicators show mixed signals, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, creating a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

The Phase 3 trial of LPCN 1154 in postpartum depression has successfully dosed its first patient, marking a positive step forward in its clinical development.

Regulatory Approval

Potential regulatory approval and commercialization of TLANDO in Canada could help drive Lipocine's topline revenue.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trials Risk

There is a risk of failure for LPCN 1154 in clinical trials, which could negatively impact the company's prospects.

Commercial Success Risk

Failure to achieve commercial success due to reimbursement, penetration rate, and/or competition poses a significant risk to Lipocine.

Lipocine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lipocine Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of neuroendocrine and metabolic disorders. The company's primary development programs are based on oral delivery solutions for poorly bioavailable drugs. Its lead product candidate is TLANDO, an oral testosterone replacement therapy. The company's pipeline candidates also include LPCN 1144, an oral prodrug of bioidentical testosterone that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-cirrhotic non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; LPCN 1111, an oral prodrug of testosterone tridecanoate for once daily dosing, which has completed Phase II clinical trial in hypogonadal men; LPCN 1148, a novel prodrug of testosterone and testosterone laurate for the management of decompensated cirrhosis; LPCN 1154, an investigational new drug application to conduct a Phase 2 study in Postpartum depression; LPCN 2101 for women with epilepsy, which has completed pre-clinical study; and LPCN 1107, an oral hydroxyprogesterone caproate product that has completed dose finding Phase II clinical trial for the prevention of recurrent preterm birth. The company is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

Lipocine generates revenue primarily through licensing agreements, collaborations, and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. These agreements often include upfront payments, milestone payments based on development achievements, and royalties on net sales of commercialized products. Additionally, Lipocine may also secure funding through research grants and government contracts. Revenue is significantly influenced by the progress and success of its clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and the commercial launch of its product candidates.

Lipocine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lipocine shows signs of financial recovery with positive net income in 2024, but profitability and cash flow generation remain challenges. The balance sheet is strong with no debt, providing a buffer against operational volatility. While the financial trajectory is improving, consistent revenue and profit growth are needed to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Lipocine's financial performance shows some improvement with a positive net income in the latest year, but historical profitability has been weak. Revenue growth is volatile, with a significant increase in 2024 after a decline in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is relatively strong with no debt in the latest year and an increasing equity base. The equity ratio is high, indicating financial stability. However, the return on equity remains low due to historically negative net income.

Cash Flow

Cash flow management appears stable, with reduced negative free cash flow in recent years. However, there is no operating cash flow in 2024, which raises concerns about cash generation from core operations. The company has managed to improve its cash position through investing and financing activities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.67M	11.20M	-2.85M	500.00K	16.14M	0.00
Gross Profit	1.80M	3.85M	-13.03M	500.00K	16.14M	0.00
EBITDA	-6.42M	-1.11M	-17.90M	-10.72M	-430.53K	-17.99M
Net Income	-5.37M	8.35K	-16.35M	-10.76M	-634.40K	-20.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.50M	22.51M	23.00M	37.54M	52.48M	25.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.72M	21.63M	22.04M	32.53M	44.62M	19.67M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	17.17K	0.00	2.31M	5.59M
Total Liabilities	1.30M	1.51M	2.63M	1.91M	6.91M	10.01M
Stockholders Equity	19.20M	21.00M	20.37M	35.63M	45.57M	15.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-5.69M	-1.31M	-11.88M	-12.10M	-4.42M	-15.30M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.60M	-1.22M	-11.87M	-11.97M	-4.41M	-15.30M
Investing Cash Flow	5.65M	2.45M	13.08M	14.29M	-43.78M	3.89M
Financing Cash Flow	217.44K	209.34K	404.57K	-2.13M	26.92M	20.90M

Lipocine Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.19, below the 50-day MA of 3.30, and below the 200-day MA of 4.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPCN.

Lipocine Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.53B	0.32	-61.76%	2.28%	16.60%	1.56%
LPCN	48 Neutral	$16.59M	650.59	-24.89%	―	10081.34%	―
CING	47 Neutral	$18.17M	―	-358.06%	―	―	95.52%
EQ	41 Neutral	$11.47M	―	-88.32%	―	-19.76%	-13.20%
CLDI	37 Underperform	$7.81M	―	354.78%	―	―	64.19%
EDSA	35 Underperform	$14.47M	―	-58.78%	―	―	-126.54%
UBX	31 Underperform	$5.04M	―	-231.27%	―	―	35.08%