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Lipocine (LPCN)
NASDAQ:LPCN
US Market
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Lipocine (LPCN) AI Stock Analysis

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LPCN

Lipocine

(NASDAQ:LPCN)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
Lipocine's financial recovery is promising, with a strong balance sheet and reduced operational volatility. However, challenges remain in achieving consistent profitability and cash flow generation. Technical indicators show mixed signals, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, creating a cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Clinical Trials
Positive results from the Phase 3 trial in postpartum depression could support a global registration package for LPCN 1154.
Drug Development
LPCN 1154 has the potential to become the best-in-class oral neuroactive steroid for PPD, improving efficacy and safety with rapid onset of action and high remission rate.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Risks
Risks include failure of LPCN 1154 in clinical trials and failure to obtain regulatory approval.

Lipocine (LPCN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lipocine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLipocine Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of neuroendocrine and metabolic disorders. The company's primary development programs are based on oral delivery solutions for poorly bioavailable drugs. Its lead product candidate is TLANDO, an oral testosterone replacement therapy. The company's pipeline candidates also include LPCN 1144, an oral prodrug of bioidentical testosterone that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-cirrhotic non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; LPCN 1111, an oral prodrug of testosterone tridecanoate for once daily dosing, which has completed Phase II clinical trial in hypogonadal men; LPCN 1148, a novel prodrug of testosterone and testosterone laurate for the management of decompensated cirrhosis; LPCN 1154, an investigational new drug application to conduct a Phase 2 study in Postpartum depression; LPCN 2101 for women with epilepsy, which has completed pre-clinical study; and LPCN 1107, an oral hydroxyprogesterone caproate product that has completed dose finding Phase II clinical trial for the prevention of recurrent preterm birth. The company is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
How the Company Makes MoneyLipocine generates revenue primarily through licensing agreements, collaborations, and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. These agreements often include upfront payments, milestone payments based on development achievements, and royalties on net sales of commercialized products. Additionally, Lipocine may also secure funding through research grants and government contracts. Revenue is significantly influenced by the progress and success of its clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and the commercial launch of its product candidates.

Lipocine Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lipocine shows signs of financial recovery with positive net income in 2024, but profitability and cash flow generation remain challenges. The balance sheet is strong with no debt, providing a buffer against operational volatility. While the financial trajectory is improving, consistent revenue and profit growth are needed to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Lipocine's financial performance shows some improvement with a positive net income in the latest year, but historical profitability has been weak. Revenue growth is volatile, with a significant increase in 2024 after a decline in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet is relatively strong with no debt in the latest year and an increasing equity base. The equity ratio is high, indicating financial stability. However, the return on equity remains low due to historically negative net income.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow management appears stable, with reduced negative free cash flow in recent years. However, there is no operating cash flow in 2024, which raises concerns about cash generation from core operations. The company has managed to improve its cash position through investing and financing activities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.67M11.20M-2.85M500.00K16.14M0.00
Gross Profit1.80M3.85M-13.03M500.00K16.14M0.00
EBITDA-6.42M-1.11M-17.90M-10.72M-430.53K-17.99M
Net Income-5.37M8.35K-16.35M-10.76M-634.40K-20.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.50M22.51M23.00M37.54M52.48M25.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.72M21.63M22.04M32.53M44.62M19.67M
Total Debt0.000.0017.17K0.002.31M5.59M
Total Liabilities1.30M1.51M2.63M1.91M6.91M10.01M
Stockholders Equity19.20M21.00M20.37M35.63M45.57M15.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.69M-1.31M-11.88M-12.10M-4.42M-15.30M
Operating Cash Flow-5.60M-1.22M-11.87M-11.97M-4.41M-15.30M
Investing Cash Flow5.65M2.45M13.08M14.29M-43.78M3.89M
Financing Cash Flow217.44K209.34K404.57K-2.13M26.92M20.90M

Lipocine Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.44
Price Trends
50DMA
3.29
Positive
100DMA
3.26
Positive
200DMA
3.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Negative
RSI
61.02
Neutral
STOCH
61.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPCN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.20, above the 50-day MA of 3.29, and below the 200-day MA of 3.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LPCN.

Lipocine Risk Analysis

Lipocine disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lipocine reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lipocine Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$7.63B0.11-62.96%2.08%16.16%0.31%
49
Neutral
$14.38M-88.32%-19.76%-13.20%
48
Neutral
$18.41M650.59-24.89%10081.34%
47
Neutral
$28.30M-358.06%95.52%
37
Underperform
$25.20M354.78%64.19%
35
Underperform
$16.71M-58.78%-126.54%
31
Underperform
$1.80M-231.27%35.08%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LPCN
Lipocine
3.44
-1.49
-30.22%
EDSA
Edesa Biotech
2.38
-2.82
-54.23%
UNBX
Unity Biotechnology
0.10
-1.35
-93.10%
EQ
Equillium
0.40
-0.39
-49.37%
CLDI
Calidi Biotherapeutics
0.73
-0.78
-51.66%
CING
Cingulate Inc
5.50
1.24
29.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 30, 2025