Lipocine (LPCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.67M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 76.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 650.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 10081.34%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 16
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 5,350,356
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 92,447
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 76,423
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.40
• 1Y Price Target: $7.38
• Price Target Upside: 136.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Lipocine's financial recovery is promising, with a strong balance sheet and reduced operational volatility. However, challenges remain in achieving consistent profitability and cash flow generation. Technical indicators show mixed signals, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, creating a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Pipeline Development

Positive results from the Phase 3 trial in postpartum depression could support a global registration package for LPCN 1154.

Regulatory Approval

Potential regulatory approval and commercialization of TLANDO in Canada could help drive Lipocine’s topline revenue.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trials

Risks include failure of LPCN 1154 in clinical trials and failure to achieve commercial success due to reimbursement, penetration rate, and/or competition.

Lipocine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lipocine Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company specializing in the development of innovative therapies for metabolic and endocrine disorders. The company's primary focus is on advancing oral drug delivery solutions designed to improve patient compliance and outcomes. Lipocine utilizes its proprietary Lip'ral platform technology to enhance the bioavailability and absorption of drugs, with its leading product candidates targeting indications such as testosterone deficiency and liver disease.

How the Company Makes Money

Lipocine generates revenue primarily through licensing agreements, collaborations, and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. These agreements often include upfront payments, milestone payments based on development achievements, and royalties on net sales of commercialized products. Additionally, Lipocine may also secure funding through research grants and government contracts. Revenue is significantly influenced by the progress and success of its clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and the commercial launch of its product candidates.

Lipocine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lipocine shows signs of financial recovery with positive net income in 2024, but profitability and cash flow generation remain challenges. The balance sheet is strong with no debt, providing a buffer against operational volatility. While the financial trajectory is improving, consistent revenue and profit growth are needed to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Lipocine's financial performance shows some improvement with a positive net income in the latest year, but historical profitability has been weak. Revenue growth is volatile, with a significant increase in 2024 after a decline in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is relatively strong with no debt in the latest year and an increasing equity base. The equity ratio is high, indicating financial stability. However, the return on equity remains low due to historically negative net income.

Cash Flow

Cash flow management appears stable, with reduced negative free cash flow in recent years. However, there is no operating cash flow in 2024, which raises concerns about cash generation from core operations. The company has managed to improve its cash position through investing and financing activities.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.67M	11.20M	-2.85M	500.00K	16.14M	0.00
	Gross Profit
1.80M	3.85M	-13.03M	500.00K	16.14M	0.00
	EBIT
-6.47M	-1.16M	-17.93M	-12.12M	3.15M	-18.00M
	EBITDA
-6.42M	-1.11M	-17.90M	-10.72M	-430.53K	-17.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-5.37M	8.35K	-16.35M	-10.76M	-634.40K	-20.96M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
19.72M	21.63M	22.04M	32.53M	44.62M	19.67M
	Total Assets
20.50M	22.51M	23.00M	37.54M	52.48M	25.35M
	Total Debt
0.00	0.00	17.17K	0.00	2.31M	5.59M
	Net Debt
-3.35M	-6.21M	-4.75M	-3.15M	-639.73K	-13.63M
	Total Liabilities
1.30M	1.51M	2.63M	1.91M	6.91M	10.01M
	Stockholders Equity
19.20M	21.00M	20.37M	35.63M	45.57M	15.34M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-5.69M	-1.31M	-11.88M	-12.10M	-4.42M	-15.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
-5.60M	-1.22M	-11.87M	-11.97M	-4.41M	-15.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
5.65M	2.45M	13.08M	14.29M	-43.78M	3.89M
	Financing Cash Flow
217.44K	209.34K	404.57K	-2.13M	26.92M	20.90M

Lipocine Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.40, below the 50-day MA of 3.25, and below the 200-day MA of 4.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPCN.

Lipocine Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
LPCN	48 Neutral	$16.67M	650.59	-24.89%	―	10081.34%	―
CING	47 Neutral	$17.83M	―	-358.06%	―	―	95.52%
EQ	41 Neutral	$12.39M	―	-88.32%	―	-19.76%	-13.20%
CLDI	37 Underperform	$10.97M	―	354.78%	―	―	64.19%
EDSA	35 Underperform	$13.48M	―	-58.78%	―	―	-126.54%
UBX	31 Underperform	$13.74M	―	-231.27%	―	―	35.08%