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Aeye, Inc. (LIDR)
NASDAQ:LIDR
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AEye Inc
(NASDAQ:LIDR)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(54.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held back primarily by very weak financial performance (negative gross profit, persistent losses, and ongoing cash burn). Offsetting this, technicals are constructive with price above key moving averages and a positive MACD, and the latest earnings call emphasized strong liquidity/runway and improving commercial momentum, though near-term spending and delayed revenue realization remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity & runway
AEye's reported $86.5M in cash and a virtually debt-free capital structure materially extend operational runway. This reduces near-term refinancing risk, lets management invest in commercialization and product development over multiple years, and supports execution on multi-year OEM programs.
Manufacturing scalability
Partnering with Lite-On for 60k annual units lets AEye scale output without large factory investments, preserving cash and margin flexibility. A capital-light contract manufacturing model accelerates time-to-volume, supports OEM program fulfillment, and reduces fixed-cost leverage risks as sales scale.
Product & tech differentiation
AEye's new products and 1550 nm architecture deliver materially longer range and higher resolution versus prior offerings. Durable technical differentiation helps win OEM and infrastructure programs, supports higher-value use cases (rail, defense, ITS), and strengthens competitive positioning in long-range sensing markets.
Negative Factors
Ongoing cash burn
Projected $30–$35M annual cash burn implies multi-year reliance on existing liquidity or fresh capital if revenue ramps slower than expected. Persistent burn constrains optionality for R&D or commercial investments and raises execution risk if program conversions and OEM revenues are delayed.
Negative gross profit & losses
Consistent negative gross profit indicates the company still loses money on product sales, impairing path to sustainable operating margins. Until unit costs fall or pricing power improves, persistent losses will erode equity, limit reinvestment capacity, and force dependence on external financing.
Early revenue ramp / timing risk
Revenue from key programs is expected later, making near-term cash flow and break-even timing uncertain. Dependence on staged deployments and POC conversions creates execution risk: missed conversions or slower OEM ramps would prolong losses and pressure liquidity beyond current runway assumptions.
AEye Inc (LIDR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$101.57M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.78
Revenue Growth-19.11%
EPS Growth73.51%
CountryUS
Employees45
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.15
Shares Outstanding45,345,920
10 Day Avg. Volume11,594,673
30 Day Avg. Volume4,120,937
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)5.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1826.42
P/FCF Ratio-15.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue248.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-180.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.78
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.96M
AEye Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAEye, Inc. provides lidar systems for vehicle autonomy, advanced driver-assistance systems, and robotic vision applications in the United States, Europe, and Asia. It offers 4Sight A, a software-configurable lidar solution for automotive markets, including 4Sight at Design, Triggered 4Sight, or Responsive 4Sight software levels; and 4Sight M, a software-configurable lidar solution for the mobility and industrial markets, including 4Sight at Design, Triggered 4Sight, Responsive 4Sight, and Predictive 4Sight software levels. The company was formerly known as US LADAR, Inc. and changed its name to AEye, Inc. in March 2016. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.
How the Company Makes Moneynull
AEye Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong strategic and commercial progress — product launches (Optus, Stratos), record Q4 Apollo shipments, expanding customer base and pipeline momentum, significant manufacturing capacity, and a clean balance sheet with $86.5M in liquidity and runway into 2028. Offsetting these positives are near-term cost increases (non-GAAP op ex and cash burn), an elevated non-GAAP net loss, and the fact that meaningful revenue from large wins (e.g., the $30M transportation program) is likely to materialize later (notably in 2027). Overall, the company appears well-positioned to convert growing engagement into future revenue, but near-term financials reflect investment and timing risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Balance Sheet and Runway
Ended the year with $86.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, providing an operational runway 'well into 2028'; fully repaid the 2025 convertible note and eliminated legacy warrants, leaving the company virtually debt free.
Record Q4 Shipments and Customer Growth
Shipped the highest number of Apollo units in company history in Q4; active customer count increased from 12 to 16 (≈33% increase), with active engagements up over 40% quarter-over-quarter and active quotes up more than 30% quarter-over-quarter.
Product Launches and Technical Differentiation
Launched Optus (integrated physical AI solution) and Stratos (ultra long-range LiDAR): Apollo offers ~1 km detection range, Stratos delivers 1.5 km detection range and >2x Apollo resolution while preserving 500 m range behind glass, both on a 1550 nm architecture for improved long-range detection.
Manufacturing Scalability
Secured dedicated manufacturing capacity for 60,000 Apollo units annually through tier-one partner Lite-On, enabling a capital-light approach and positioning the company for scaled production without heavy internal CapEx (company expects CapEx likely under $1M for 2026).
Commercial Momentum and Pipeline Expansion
Broadening commercial traction across automotive, trucking, rail, defense, ITS and industrial markets; new RFQs, repeat defense opportunities, multiple smart intersection deployments, and a $30M transportation program currently in staged deployment with expected broader deployment in 2026/2027.
Lead Generation and Market Interest from CES
Generated over 130 high-quality leads at CES 2026 across automotive, trucking, and physical AI markets, with many leads maturing into evaluations and feeding directly into POC and quoting pipelines.
Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Integration
Deepening partnership with NVIDIA (Apollo integration with DRIVE AGX Thor and joining NVIDIA HALOS AI Systems Inspection Lab) and multiple software and distribution partnerships (FlashEye, BlueBand, Black Sesame, VuRun, and a new distributor) to accelerate market access and product validation.
Improved GAAP Net Loss vs Prior Period
Reported GAAP net loss of $7.3 million (or $0.17 per share) in Q4, an improvement from a prior reported GAAP net loss of $9.3 million (or $0.30 per share), representing approximately a 21% decrease in GAAP net loss and ~43% decrease in GAAP loss per share (driven in part by elimination of convertible note and fewer warrants).
Negative Updates
Rising Non-GAAP Operating Expenses and Non-GAAP Net Loss
Fourth quarter non-GAAP operating expenses were $7.5 million, up from $6.1 million in the prior quarter (increase of $1.4 million, ≈23%); fourth quarter non-GAAP net loss increased to $6.8 million (or $0.15 per share) from $5.4 million (or $0.17 per share) in the prior quarter (≈26% increase in dollar loss), driven by increased engineering, contract development, and one-time payroll costs.
Increased Cash Burn in Q4 and Higher 2026 Spend Outlook
Excluding net financing proceeds, Q4 cash burn rose to $7.5 million from $6.4 million in the prior period (increase of $1.1 million, ≈17%); company expects full-year 2026 cash burn of $30–$35 million reflecting higher investment in sales, marketing, and operational scaling.
Revenue Scaling Still in Early Stages
Despite growing pipeline and POCs, the company acknowledged it is in early stages of revenue ramp; the $30M transportation opportunity is expected to contribute limited revenue in 2026 with 'meaningful' amounts more likely in 2027, indicating potential timing risk for near-term revenue realization.
Short-Term Increased Costs and One-Time Charges
Q4 GAAP operating expenses increased to $8.3 million from $7.8 million (≈6% increase) primarily due to increased engineering spend and one-time payroll costs, contributing to elevated near-term expense levels.
Stratos and New Product Revenue Unproven
Stratos launched in January and is early in commercialization; while technically differentiating, immediate revenue impact is limited and commercialization must be validated through additional POCs and conversions over 2026–2027.
Dependence on Contract Manufacturing and Supply Chain Purchases
Relies on tier-one manufacturing partners (Lite-On) for scale—while advantageous for capital efficiency, this model involves third-party dependency and recent purchases of long-lead components contributed to increased Q4 cash usage.
Company Guidance
AEye guided full‑year 2026 cash burn of $30–$35 million and said it finished FY2025 with $86.5 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities (after raising $10 million in Q4), a runway "well into 2028" and a virtually debt‑free capital structure after repaying its 2025 convertible note and eliminating legacy warrants. Q4 metrics cited included GAAP operating expenses of $8.3M and non‑GAAP Opex of $7.5M, GAAP net loss of $7.3M (‑$0.17/share) versus a $9.3M (‑$0.30/share) GAAP loss in 2025, non‑GAAP net loss of $6.8M (‑$0.15/share) versus $5.4M (‑$0.17/share) in the prior quarter, Q4 cash burn excluding financing proceeds of $7.5M (up from $6.4M), and manufacturing capacity secured for 60,000 Apollo units annually; management also noted CapEx of under $1M expected for 2026, active customers rising 12→16 with active engagements +40% and active quotes +30% QoQ, >130 CES leads, Stratos specs (1.5 km range; >2× Apollo resolution; 500 m preserved behind glass), and a $30M transportation OEM program that should contribute modestly in 2026 with more meaningful revenue expected in 2027.AEye Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement and cash flow are very weak: revenue is extremely small/volatile, gross profit is negative, and operating/net losses persist alongside ongoing negative operating and free cash flow (continued cash burn). The key offset is a currently low debt load, but equity/assets have declined and ROE remains persistently negative.Income Statement
Revenue remains extremely small for the business and has been volatile, with a sharp contraction in 2023 followed by only a modest rebound in 2024–2025. Profitability is very weak: gross profit is negative in 2021–2025 (implying the company loses money on what it sells), and operating losses and net losses stay deeply negative each year. While losses narrowed meaningfully versus 2022–2023 levels, margins are still severely negative, indicating the model has not yet reached commercial scale.8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks low in the most recent year (2025 total debt is minimal versus equity), which reduces near-term balance-sheet risk. However, equity and assets have fallen substantially since 2021, pointing to ongoing value erosion from sustained losses. Return on equity is persistently negative across 2021–2025, highlighting that shareholder capital is not currently generating profits.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative every year, indicating continued cash burn. There is improvement versus the peak burn in 2022–2023, and free cash flow has recently improved year over year (2024 and 2025), but the company still relies on external funding to sustain operations. Free cash flow tracks net losses closely, suggesting limited non-cash earnings support and no clear self-funding profile yet.12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 233.00K | 202.00K | 1.46M | 3.65M | 3.01M |
| Gross Profit | -321.00K | -576.00K | -13.86M | -5.08M | -630.00K |
| EBITDA | -31.73M | -35.73M | -76.28M | -96.46M | -61.45M |
| Net Income | -33.96M | -35.46M | -87.13M | -98.71M | -65.01M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 90.89M | 27.12M | 54.32M | 133.34M | 186.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 86.46M | 22.28M | 36.52M | 94.20M | 164.01M |
| Total Debt | 235.00K | 4.21M | 17.27M | 27.73M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 9.55M | 12.00M | 25.29M | 39.37M | 17.39M |
| Stockholders Equity | 81.34M | 15.12M | 29.02M | 93.97M | 168.77M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.89M | -27.11M | -52.68M | -75.85M | -56.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -27.78M | -26.62M | -50.73M | -71.65M | -55.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.80M | 7.74M | 55.35M | 68.46M | -151.55M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 91.67M | 10.06M | -6.76M | 8.07M | 207.08M |
AEye Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
1.62
Price Trends
1.78
Positive
2.08
Positive
2.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
63.56
Neutral
64.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LIDR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.72, below the 50-day MA of 1.78, and below the 200-day MA of 2.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LIDR.
AEye Inc Risk Analysis
AEye Inc disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AEye Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AEye Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $3.59B | 26.76 | 8.00% | ― | 43.16% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | $101.57M | -12.53 | -72.75% | ― | -19.11% | 73.51% | |
52 Neutral | $356.75M | -8.83 | 13.96% | ― | 6.59% | 55.85% | |
48 Neutral | $847.73M | -5.21 | 9999.00% | ― | 89.90% | 5.13% | |
47 Neutral | $148.02M | -2.52 | -73.64% | ― | 46.09% | 46.01% |
* Technology Sector Average
LIDR
AEye Inc
2.24
1.55
224.64%
AEVA
Aeva Technologies
14.11
9.37
197.68%
INVZ
Innoviz Technologies
0.69
-0.03
-4.43%
ECX
ECARX Holdings
1.00
-1.75
-63.64%
HSAI
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR
22.85
4.00
21.22%
AEye Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AEye Adopts New Executive Performance-Based Incentive Awards
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 9, 2026, AEye’s compensation committee approved new standard cash-settled grant agreements for performance stock units and restricted stock units under its 2021 Equity Incentive Plan, formalizing updated instruments for equity and cash-based incentives. These agreements allow settlement in cash if insufficient shares are available, aligning compensation flexibility with the company’s capital structure.
On February 9, 2026, AEye granted performance stock units to its general counsel and chief financial officer, followed by a February 11, 2026 grant to its chief executive officer, all vesting in thirds upon the stock sustaining price milestones of $3, $4, and $5 over five consecutive trading days. The structure ties executive rewards to meaningful share price appreciation by December 31, 2030, potentially sharpening management’s focus on long-term market performance while exposing executives’ compensation to equity market risk.
The most recent analyst rating on (LIDR) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AEye Inc stock, see the LIDR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.