Kohl's (KSS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $758.11M
• Dividend Yield: 26.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -7.18%
• EPS Growth: -65.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 87,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Department Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 111,323,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,144,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,401,106
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.05
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -1.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.02
• Price Target Upside: 16.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Kohl's faces significant challenges with declining sales and profitability pressures, reflected in the financial performance and cautious earnings call outlook. However, the strong cash flow and attractive valuation provide a cushion. Strategic initiatives in place could improve future performance, but uncertainties remain.

Positive Factors

Operational Strategy

Opportunities exist for the company to drive higher conversion by simplifying the promotional strategy and improving the balance of private and market brands.

Sales Performance

KSS delivered a solid 4Q EPS beat, with upside across sales, GM, and SG&A, driven by comp improvement across almost all lines of business and optimized promotional events.

Negative Factors

Competitive Environment

The company is struggling with competition and profitability despite positive presence and partnerships.

Customer Base

Concerns exist that past efforts have alienated Kohl's historical customer base without attracting a new one.

Earnings Guidance

Kohl's Corporation provided very weak guidance for F25 with expected comparable sales down 4-6% and a significant dividend cut of 75%.

Kohl's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is a leading American department store retail chain, founded in 1962 and headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. The company operates over 1,100 stores across the United States, offering a wide range of products, including apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty products, and home goods. Kohl's targets middle-income families and provides value-oriented pricing, with a focus on national brands, exclusive merchandise, and private label products.

How the Company Makes Money

Kohl's makes money primarily through the sale of merchandise in its retail stores and through its online platform. The company's key revenue streams include apparel and accessories, which account for a significant portion of its sales. Kohl's also generates revenue from home products and seasonal merchandise. The company utilizes a combination of national brands and private labels to cater to a broad customer base. Additionally, Kohl's has partnerships with well-known brands and designers to offer exclusive products, enhancing its competitive edge and appeal. Its loyalty programs and Kohl's Cash incentives drive repeat purchases and customer retention, supporting consistent revenue generation.

Kohl's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kohl's faces challenges with declining revenues, low margins, and high leverage. Despite stable cash flows and some profitability, strategic improvements are needed for revenue growth and cost management.

Income Statement

Kohl's income statement reveals challenges with declining revenues over the years, with a notable drop from $19.97 billion in 2020 to $16.22 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin is low at approximately 0.23% in 2025, indicating pressure on sales and cost management. Although there was a positive net income in 2025, the net profit margin remains modest at 0.67%. The EBIT margin is 2.67%, and the EBITDA margin is 7.25%, showing some profitability but lower than industry norms. Revenue growth was negative year-over-year, highlighting the need for strategic improvements to reverse this trend.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed picture with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76, suggesting significant leverage. However, the equity ratio of 28.05% in 2025 indicates a reasonable level of equity financing. Return on equity improved slightly to 2.87% in 2025, but this is still low, reflecting moderate profitability on shareholder investments. Liquidity seems manageable, but the high debt levels pose a risk if cash flows do not improve.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects a stable operating cash flow with $648 million in 2025, but free cash flow growth is inconsistent due to fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 5.95, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 5.95, also highlighting strong cash flow generation. However, the negative free cash flow growth in prior years underscores the need for careful capital spending management.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
16.22B	17.48B	18.10B	19.43B	15.96B
	Gross Profit
37.20M	6.23B	6.64B	8.00B	5.59B
	EBIT
433.00M	717.00M	246.00M	1.68B	-300.00M
	EBITDA
1.18B	1.47B	1.05B	2.32B	612.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
109.00M	317.00M	-19.00M	938.00M	-163.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
134.00M	183.00M	153.00M	1.59B	2.27B
	Total Assets
13.56B	14.01B	14.35B	15.05B	15.34B
	Total Debt
2.89B	7.38B	7.57B	6.79B	6.74B
	Net Debt
2.76B	7.19B	7.41B	5.20B	4.47B
	Total Liabilities
9.76B	10.12B	10.58B	10.39B	10.14B
	Stockholders Equity
3.80B	3.89B	3.76B	4.66B	5.20B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
648.00M	591.00M	-544.00M	1.67B	1.00B
	Operating Cash Flow
648.00M	1.17B	282.00M	2.27B	1.34B
	Investing Cash Flow
-467.00M	-562.00M	-783.00M	-570.00M	-137.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-230.00M	-576.00M	-933.00M	-2.38B	347.00M

Kohl's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.76
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.11, below the 50-day MA of 10.27, and below the 200-day MA of 15.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KSS.

Kohl's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DDS	69 Neutral	$4.87B	8.32	33.98%	0.34%	-4.13%	-17.60%
M	69 Neutral	$3.02B	5.25	13.40%	7.02%	-3.60%	442.87%
JWN	64 Neutral	$3.90B	13.41	29.58%	3.29%	2.20%	120.00%
KSS	61 Neutral	$758.11M	7.00	2.83%	26.29%	-7.18%	-65.92%
WGO	59 Neutral	$883.92M	―	-0.45%	4.50%	-12.29%	-105.55%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.74B	10.16	-1.06%	4.15%	1.27%	-16.61%
FL	57 Neutral	$1.30B	111.07	0.62%	―	-2.20%	―

Kohl's Corporate Events

Kohl’s Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Sales Decline

On March 11, 2025, Kohl’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share, payable on April 2, 2025, to shareholders of record as of March 21, 2025. Kohl’s reported a decrease in net sales and comparable sales for both the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, with net sales down 9.4% and 7.2%, respectively. Despite these declines, the company increased its gross margin and reduced SG&A expenses. Kohl’s CEO, Ashley Buchanan, emphasized the company’s strategic focus on leveraging its strengths and addressing key opportunities to better serve customers in 2025.

Kohl’s Announces Fulfillment Center and Store Closures

Kohl’s Corporation announced plans to close its San Bernardino E-commerce Fulfillment Center and 27 underperforming stores by mid-2025 as part of its strategy to optimize operations and enhance efficiency. These actions are expected to incur pre-tax charges of $60 million to $80 million, but they are not anticipated to affect the company’s financial outlook for 2024, as these charges will be excluded from non-GAAP financial measures. The closures are intended to support the long-term health of Kohl’s business by leveraging newer technological capabilities and reallocating resources more effectively.