Keros Therapeutics (KROS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $219.26M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 397.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 37798.31%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 163
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.86
• Shares Outstanding: 19,717,533
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 592,275
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 397,809
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.73
• 1Y Price Target: $22.17
• Price Target Upside: 99.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -4.74
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.48M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(3.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/09/26

The score is driven primarily by improved 2025 financial performance (profitability and free cash flow turning positive with low leverage), offset by very weak technicals (price far below key moving averages and bearish momentum). Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, and recent corporate events add modest positive pipeline momentum.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / balance sheet flexibility

Very low reported leverage gives Keros flexibility to fund clinical programs, pursue partnerships or M&A, and absorb development setbacks without high interest burden. Over the next 2–6 months this balance sheet strength supports strategic optionality and lowers solvency risk while the pipeline advances.

Strong 2025 cash generation

A material 2025 cash-flow inflection, with FCF nearly equal to net income, indicates the company can internally fund near-term development and reduce dilution risk. If these cash conversion trends persist, Keros gains negotiating leverage with partners and a healthier runway to reach clinical inflection points.

Platform progress & strategic collaboration

Advancing rinvatercept via inclusion in the Healey ALS MyMatch program and supportive Phase 1 proteomic data strengthens Keros’s TGF-β platform positioning. Institutional collaboration and biomarker-driven trial design increase trial execution quality and patient access, improving long-term prospects across neuromuscular indications.

Negative Factors

Highly volatile revenue profile

A dramatic single-year revenue swing suggests revenues may be driven by non-recurring events (milestones, one-offs) rather than sustainable product sales. This volatility undermines the durability of reported profitability and makes forward cash-flow forecasting and operational planning risky absent repeatable revenue streams.

Prior sustained cash burn

A multi-year history of negative operating and free cash flow means the company historically relied on external financing. Even with a 2025 turnaround, the legacy of cash burn raises the risk that future development setbacks could force dilution or restructurings, reducing resilience over the medium term.

Early-stage clinical & approval risk

Keros has no marketed products and depends on early-stage assets like rinvatercept to achieve commercial traction. Success requires positive pivotal data and regulatory approval in challenging neuromuscular indications, so program failures or delays would materially impair future revenue and cash-generation prospects.

Keros Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keros Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for patients suffering from hematological and musculoskeletal disorders with high unmet medical need. The company's lead protein therapeutic product candidate is KER-050, which is being developed for the treatment of low blood cell counts, or cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes, and in patients with myelofibrosis. It is also developing small molecule product candidate KER-047 that is being developed for the treatment of anemia, and is currently in Phase 1 clinical trial; and KER-012, which is in Phase 1 clinical trial to treat disorders associated with bone loss, such as osteoporosis and osteogenesis imperfecta, and for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Keros Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and eventual commercialization of its therapeutic candidates. The company does not currently have products on the market; however, it aims to monetize its pipeline through partnerships, collaborations, and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, Keros may receive milestone payments and royalties based on the performance of its products once they are commercialized. The company also funds its operations through equity financing and grants, which support its research and development activities.

Keros Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 shows a major inflection with strong profitability (net income $87.0M, ~35.7% net margin) and positive free cash flow ($106.0M) with strong conversion to earnings. However, results are highly volatile (revenue jumping to $244.1M from $3.6M in 2024) and prior years show sustained losses and cash burn, raising durability risk despite low leverage.

Income Statement

Results show a sharp swing to profitability in 2025 (annual) with net income of $87.0M and a ~35.7% net margin, versus large losses from 2020–2024. However, the revenue profile is highly volatile: 2025 revenue jumped to $244.1M after being only $3.6M in 2024 and near-zero in 2022–2023, and 2025 also shows negative revenue growth (down ~108% vs the prior year per provided growth rate). Overall, profitability improved materially, but revenue quality/consistency remains a key concern.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is low across periods, with 2025 total debt of $16.9M against $303.1M of equity (debt-to-equity ~0.056), supporting financial flexibility. Return on equity improved strongly in 2025 (~28.7%) following multiple years of negative returns, signaling a meaningful earnings rebound. The main weakness is equity volatility (equity fell from $571.6M in 2024 to $303.1M in 2025), which suggests the capital base has been unstable despite low debt.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved dramatically in 2025 (annual): operating cash flow of $107.5M and free cash flow of $106.0M, with free cash flow up ~21.7%. Cash flow conversion was strong, with free cash flow roughly matching net income (~0.99x). The offset is that 2020–2024 showed consistently negative operating and free cash flow, highlighting a history of cash burn and making the sustainability of the 2025 turnaround the central risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	244.06M	3.55M	151.00K	0.00	20.10M
Gross Profit	242.55M	3.55M	151.00K	0.00	20.10M
EBITDA	72.13M	-185.82M	-152.18M	-104.00M	-56.35M
Net Income	87.01M	-187.35M	-152.99M	-104.68M	-58.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	338.02M	615.89M	370.02M	306.78M	255.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	287.42M	559.93M	331.15M	279.05M	230.04M
Total Debt	16.88M	18.86M	14.44M	13.27M	1.09M
Total Liabilities	34.89M	44.33M	37.81M	29.36M	12.08M
Stockholders Equity	303.13M	571.55M	332.21M	277.42M	243.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.95M	-162.80M	-126.97M	-71.30M	-63.17M
Operating Cash Flow	107.50M	-160.87M	-124.51M	-70.06M	-62.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.55M	-1.93M	-2.46M	-1.24M	-1.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-378.47M	391.82M	178.96M	120.31M	28.55M

Keros Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KROS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.83, below the 50-day MA of 16.00, and below the 200-day MA of 15.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 24.22 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KROS.

Keros Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GYRE	61 Neutral	$618.05M	33.21	5.46%	―	―	―
KROS	57 Neutral	$219.26M	8.71	14.25%	―	37798.31%	―
KALV	57 Neutral	$830.48M	-3.32	-282.01%	―	―	-13.14%
BCAX	56 Neutral	$1.19B	-5.93	-27.17%	―	―	-103.95%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PVLA	49 Neutral	$1.56B	-15.28	-64.41%	―	―	―
NRIX	47 Neutral	$1.53B	-5.54	-57.51%	―	48.32%	-1.91%

Keros Therapeutics Corporate Events

Keros Therapeutics Advances Rinvatercept in ALS Collaboration

On March 9, 2026, Keros Therapeutics announced it has entered into an agreement with Massachusetts General Hospital to design a Phase 2 clinical trial of its lead drug candidate rinvatercept for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis within the Healey ALS MyMatch program, a biomarker-driven initiative led by the Sean M. Healey & AMG Center for ALS at Mass General Brigham. The ALS MyMatch network, which includes several high-enrolling U.S. research centers, uses genetic and biofluid markers to match ALS patient subgroups to experimental therapies in a series of early-stage Phase 1b/2a trials.

Keros also reported on March 9, 2026 that it presented additional data from its Phase 1 clinical trial of rinvatercept in healthy volunteers at the 2026 Muscular Dystrophy Association Clinical & Scientific Conference, highlighting continued clinical progress for the program. Together, the collaboration with the Healey & AMG Center and the new Phase 1 data mark a significant step in advancing rinvatercept’s development in ALS and reinforce Keros’s positioning as an emerging player in muscle and neuromuscular disease therapeutics.

The most recent analyst rating on (KROS) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keros Therapeutics stock, see the KROS Stock Forecast page.

Keros Highlights Rinvatercept Strategy in Updated Investor Presentation

On March 4, 2026, Keros Therapeutics updated its corporate presentation for use in meetings with investors, analysts and other stakeholders, making it available on its website. The presentation outlines the company’s strategy to leverage TGF-β pathway modulation across a broad portfolio, including neuromuscular, myelodysplastic, myelofibrosis, obesity and frailty indications, reinforcing its positioning as a platform-based rare disease and specialty therapeutics player.

A central focus of the updated materials is rinvatercept (KER-065), an investigational modified activin receptor type II ligand trap designed to inhibit specific TGF-β ligands such as activin A and myostatin. The company highlights preclinical data suggesting rinvatercept may improve muscle regeneration, reduce inflammation and fibrosis, lower fat accumulation and support bone health, particularly in Duchenne muscular dystrophy and other neuromuscular diseases where current treatments leave significant unmet need.

The deck emphasizes that neuromuscular disorders like Duchenne muscular dystrophy, Becker muscular dystrophy, limb-girdle muscular dystrophy, congenital muscular dystrophy and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis share downstream skeletal muscle pathology that rinvatercept could potentially address. By framing rinvatercept as a systemic, disease-modifying approach that might complement gene therapy, exon-skipping and glucocorticoids, Keros underscores its ambition to capture a meaningful role in the evolving care paradigm for rare neuromuscular conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (KROS) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keros Therapeutics stock, see the KROS Stock Forecast page.

Keros Therapeutics Adds Veteran Finance Leader to Board

On February 24, 2026, Keros Therapeutics’ board appointed former Lyell Immunopharma CFO and veteran healthcare investment banker Charles Newton as a Class III director, effective March 9, 2026, with a term running through the 2026 annual meeting. He will also join the Compensation and Audit Committees and receive the company’s standard mix of equity awards and cash retainers for non-employee directors, along with a standard indemnification agreement.

The appointment, announced publicly on February 26, 2026, brings deep healthcare finance and capital markets experience onto Keros’ board as it advances its clinical pipeline, including rinvatercept. Concurrently, longtime director Carl Gordon will step down from the board and the Compensation Committee on March 9, 2026, a move the company said was not due to any disagreement and that prompted a refresh of committee memberships across its three standing board committees.

The most recent analyst rating on (KROS) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keros Therapeutics stock, see the KROS Stock Forecast page.

Keros Therapeutics CEO to Present at Multiple Conferences

On February 18, 2026, Keros Therapeutics announced that President and CEO Jasbir S. Seehra will represent the company at three major healthcare investor conferences in late February and early March 2026. He is scheduled for a corporate presentation at the Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference on February 25, followed by fireside chats at the TD Cowen Health Care Conference on March 3 and the Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conference on March 10.

Keros will provide archived replays of each appearance for up to 90 days in the Investors section of its website, underscoring its ongoing efforts to increase visibility and engagement with the investment community. The planned conference participation highlights the company’s aim to communicate its clinical pipeline progress and strategic direction to current and potential stakeholders in the biopharmaceutical sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (KROS) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keros Therapeutics stock, see the KROS Stock Forecast page.

Keros Therapeutics Highlights Rinvatercept Strategy in Updated Presentation

On January 9, 2026, Keros Therapeutics updated its corporate presentation for investors and analysts, outlining the company’s strategic focus on TGF-β superfamily modulation and highlighting its lead investigational asset, rinvatercept (KER-065), as a modified activin receptor type II ligand trap with potential to improve muscle regeneration, reduce fibrosis and inflammation, decrease fat accumulation and enhance bone health across multiple rare neuromuscular diseases, including Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The presentation underscored the high unmet need in DMD despite existing gene therapies, exon-skipping drugs, glucocorticoids and HDAC inhibitors, and positioned rinvatercept—supported by robust preclinical data showing gains in muscle mass and strength, mitigation of glucocorticoid side effects and improved dystrophic pathology—as a candidate that could broaden Keros’s footprint in neuromuscular and related indications and potentially strengthen its competitive standing in the rare disease biopharma space if its clinical program succeeds.

The most recent analyst rating on (KROS) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keros Therapeutics stock, see the KROS Stock Forecast page.