Knife River Corporation (KNF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 672.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 5.52%
• EPS Growth: -25.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,761
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Construction Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 56,664,165
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 775,224
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 672,375
• PEG Ratio: -1.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.27
• P/FCF Ratio: -57.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.41
• 1Y Price Target: $98.38
• Price Target Upside: 25.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.39B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $84.00 ▲(7.05% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven by mixed fundamentals: solid growth and a constructive 2026 outlook/backlog, but offset by weakened 2025 cash generation (negative free cash flow) and softer margins with rising leverage. Technical trends are supportive, while valuation appears demanding given the P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Backlog & Public Work Visibility

A record $1.0B backlog with ~90% public work and ~75% slated for 2026 provides multi-quarter revenue visibility and reduces cyclicality exposure. High public-work mix improves predictability of cash flow and utilization, supporting stable operations and planned capital deployment.

Diversified, Higher‑Margin Segments

Meaningful margin recovery across aggregates, ready‑mix and asphalt shows durable benefits from vertical integration and dynamic pricing. Diversified product mix and greater self‑performance on paving increase margin capture, resilience to input swings and higher incremental returns on volume growth.

Liquidity & Capital Capacity

Solid available liquidity and sub‑target net leverage provide financial flexibility to fund reserve additions, maintenance capex and bolt‑on M&A. This balance of cash and revolver capacity supports execution of growth initiatives while preserving runway through typical construction cycles.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash Flow

A swing to negative FCF reduces internal funding for capex and acquisitions and increases reliance on external financing. Persistently negative cash conversion risks higher leverage or constrained investment, weakening the firm's ability to self‑fund growth or absorb downcycle revenue shocks.

Rising Leverage & Lower ROE

Meaningful increase in leverage alongside falling ROE signals weaker capital efficiency and greater fixed financing burden. Higher leverage amplifies earnings volatility, narrows flexibility for opportunistic spending, and raises refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity over the medium term.

Elevated SG&A from M&A & Growth

Higher SG&A tied to acquisitions and development activities raises the fixed cost base and can structurally depress margins until synergies materialize. If revenue or margin improvements lag, elevated overhead will sustain margin pressure and slow the pace at which acquisitions add net earnings.

Knife River Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. It operates through six segments: Pacific, Northwest, Mountain, North Central, South, and Energy Services. The company mines, processes, and sells construction aggregates, including crushed stone and sand, and gravel; and produces and sells asphalt and ready-mix concrete, as well as provides contracting services to support the aggregate-based product lines, including heavy-civil construction, asphalt and concrete paving, and site development and grading. It serves federal, state, and municipal governments for various projects, such as highways, bridges, airports, schools, public buildings, and other public-infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1917 and is based in Bismarck, North Dakota.

How the Company Makes Money

Knife River makes money primarily by selling construction materials and by providing construction-related services, generally to public-sector infrastructure customers and private-sector builders and developers. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Aggregates sales: mining and selling crushed stone, sand, and gravel used as foundational inputs for concrete, asphalt, and road base; (2) Downstream materials: manufacturing and selling products made from aggregates, including ready-mix concrete and asphalt (and related surfacing materials where offered), which are used in highways, streets, commercial development, and residential construction; and (3) Contracting/services: performing construction, paving, and surfacing work (where offered), often bundling material supply with placement and finishing services. Earnings are influenced by volumes and pricing of aggregates and asphalt/ready-mix, the mix of public infrastructure vs. private construction demand, bidding and execution on contract work, and logistics/transport distance (because materials are heavy and local supply advantages can affect margins). Specific significant partnerships: null.

Knife River Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth remains solid, but 2025 profitability softened (lower net and gross margins) and financial flexibility weakened as free cash flow turned negative. Balance sheet is manageable yet trending more leveraged (higher debt-to-equity) with lower ROE.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from $2.23B (2021) to $3.15B (2025), indicating continued demand and scale gains. Profitability is solid but has softened recently: net margin fell to ~5.0% in 2025 from ~7.0% in 2024, and gross margin also compressed (18.4% vs 19.7%). EBITDA margin remains positive but also declined versus prior years, pointing to cost pressure and/or mix effects.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity at ~0.74 in 2025, but it increased meaningfully versus 2024 (~0.49) as total debt rose to ~$1.25B. Equity has grown over time, supporting the capital base, but returns also cooled (return on equity ~9.6% in 2025 vs ~13.7% in 2024), reflecting lower earnings and/or higher capital intensity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened in 2025: operating cash flow declined to ~$279M (from ~$322M in 2024) and free cash flow turned negative (~-$70M) after being positive in prior years. Operating cash flow covered a smaller portion of accounting profit in 2025 (~0.74x), and free cash flow was negative relative to net income, suggesting heavier investment needs and/or working-capital drag that reduces financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.15B	2.90B	2.83B	2.53B	2.23B
Gross Profit	577.30M	569.83M	538.93M	360.89M	346.95M
EBITDA	488.80M	463.11M	427.21M	306.74M	293.41M
Net Income	157.10M	201.68M	182.87M	116.22M	129.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.65B	2.85B	2.60B	2.29B	2.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.40M	281.13M	262.32M	10.09M	13.85M
Total Debt	1.25B	726.76M	726.37M	730.96M	734.52M
Total Liabilities	2.01B	1.38B	1.33B	1.27B	1.23B
Stockholders Equity	1.64B	1.48B	1.27B	1.03B	952.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-69.60M	149.90M	211.44M	29.28M	7.01M
Operating Cash Flow	278.50M	322.32M	335.73M	207.44M	181.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-913.70M	-294.80M	-117.89M	-155.88M	-398.27M
Financing Cash Flow	477.50M	-8.71M	34.39M	-55.32M	223.80M

Knife River Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 78.47
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 78.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.81, below the 50-day MA of 79.81, and above the 200-day MA of 78.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KNF.

Knife River Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
USLM	75 Outperform	$3.42B	28.06	23.07%	0.19%	20.27%	31.94%
TTAM	74 Outperform	$2.87B	12.05	―	0.94%	0.28%	-1.57%
CX	69 Neutral	$15.73B	-1.18	10.45%	0.74%	-6.34%	210.97%
TGLS	69 Neutral	$2.04B	14.72	22.02%	1.12%	15.70%	19.92%
BCC	66 Neutral	$2.50B	20.40	6.25%	1.17%	-4.25%	-50.60%
KNF	65 Neutral	$4.45B	25.39	9.71%	―	5.52%	-25.56%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Knife River Corporation Corporate Events

Knife River Releases Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Earnings

On February 17, 2026, Knife River Corporation announced its earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, formalizing the disclosure in a press release furnished to regulators. The announcement provides investors and other stakeholders with updated financial performance information for the company’s most recently completed fiscal year, which may influence assessments of its operational trends and market positioning.

The disclosure of full-year 2025 earnings offers greater transparency into Knife River’s recent financial trajectory and supports comparative analysis against prior periods. By formally furnishing the release to the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company underscores its adherence to public reporting standards, reinforcing governance practices that are important for shareholders and the broader market.

The most recent analyst rating on (KNF) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Knife River Corporation stock, see the KNF Stock Forecast page.