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Keel Infrastructure
(NASDAQ:KEEL)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(56.25% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/07/26
KEEL scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (widening losses, rising leverage, and persistent cash burn). Technicals also lean negative in the near term with oversold readings and price below key short-term averages. These are partly offset by a balanced earnings-call outlook (strong liquidity and defined lease targets) and positive corporate events (convertible financing and senior commercial leadership hire), but execution and profitability recovery remain the key swing factors.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity
A ~$533M liquidity cushion materially extends runway and funds near-term site development, equipment deposits, and G&A through 2028. This durable cash buffer reduces short-term financing dependence and supports staged execution of multi‑year infrastructure projects.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
A sharp increase in leverage shifts financial risk onto the company: higher fixed obligations reduce flexibility for multi‑year project funding and increase sensitivity to execution delays, making long‑term project financing and covenant risk more salient.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Liquidity
A ~$533M liquidity cushion materially extends runway and funds near-term site development, equipment deposits, and G&A through 2028. This durable cash buffer reduces short-term financing dependence and supports staged execution of multi‑year infrastructure projects.
Read all positive factors
Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)55.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.62
Revenue Growth12.10%
EPS Growth-186.15%
CountryUS
Employees274
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.69
Shares Outstanding603,828,700
10 Day Avg. Volume31,691,152
30 Day Avg. Volume55,153,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)5.65
P/FCF Ratio-3.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue19.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-85.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-73.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.83Price Target Upside137.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$119.52M
Keel Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keel Infrastructure Corp. operates as a digital infrastructure and energy company that develops and owns data centers and energy infrastructure for computing workloads, including AI in North America. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquar...
How the Company Makes Money
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Keel Infrastructure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced: The call highlighted substantial strategic progress — completed redomiciliation and rebrand, strengthened balance sheet with ~$533M liquidity, secured multi-hundred‑MW sites with zoning approvals, strong partner roster, and clear go‑to-market goals (three leases in 2026, revenue in 2027). Offsetting these positives were meaningful near-term financial headwinds: revenue declined 23% YoY, sizable operating and net losses, negative adjusted EBITDA, elevated energy costs, and remaining execution risks (permits, bandwidth and unsigned leases). The company appears well-capitalized to pursue its plan, but value realization depends on signing the targeted leases and delivering megawatts on schedule.Positive Updates
Corporate Transformation Completed
Redomiciled to the United States, rebranded as Keel Infrastructure, and closed sale of the Paso Pe site — completing a multiyear strategic pivot from Bitcoin mining to North American digital infrastructure.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Q1 2026 revenue was $37 million, down 23% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Corporate Transformation Completed
Redomiciled to the United States, rebranded as Keel Infrastructure, and closed sale of the Paso Pe site — completing a multiyear strategic pivot from Bitcoin mining to North American digital infrastructure.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Keel guided that its near‑term plan is to sign three leases by year‑end 2026 (one at Panther Creek, one at Sharon and one at Moses Lake) with revenue expected to commence in 2027 and ready‑for‑service timelines targeted in 2027; key site metrics include Panther Creek’s 350 MW secured under an ESA (a possible +60 MW ISA conversion to ~400–430 MW and a 2025 load study supporting >500 MW long‑term), Sharon’s 110 MW secured (30 MW substation operational + 80 MW under development), and Moses Lake’s 18 MW (plus a secured option for an additional 10 MW) where major modular equipment and long‑lead items have been acquired to accelerate deployment; management said current liquidity of ~ $533 million in cash and Bitcoin (as of May 8, 2026) fully funds advancement to lease execution and the start of Moses Lake construction and covers G&A through 2028, expects run‑rate cash SG&A of about $25 million/quarter (~$100 million/year), and plans to access non‑recourse project financing post‑lease to fund construction while executing against a >2 GW development pipeline.Keel Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 229.28M | 192.88M | 146.37M | 142.43M | 169.49M |
| Gross Profit | -18.90M | -32.36M | -21.50M | 10.52M | 111.12M |
| EBITDA | 24.40M | 74.35M | -17.41M | -106.42M | 70.53M |
| Net Income | -284.54M | -54.06M | -108.92M | -175.64M | 22.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.30B | 667.62M | 378.73M | 343.10M | 542.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 573.46M | 146.84M | 84.04M | 35.44M | 191.63M |
| Total Debt | 683.78M | 23.41M | 19.87M | 65.01M | 84.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 735.97M | 59.62M | 83.96M | 87.70M | 183.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 560.38M | 608.00M | 294.76M | 255.40M | 359.01M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -326.89M | -480.42M | -177.02M | -158.73M | -230.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -226.59M | -140.56M | -105.71M | 36.25M | -37.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 103.74M | -178.39M | 70.97M | -155.01M | -215.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 694.28M | 294.46M | 87.88M | 24.01M | 371.99M |
Keel Infrastructure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | C$16.30B | -37.44 | -20.57% | ― | 114.22% | -367.82% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
53 Neutral | C$115.86M | -12.07 | -9.23% | ― | 7.99% | 55.86% | |
47 Neutral | $2.81B | -6.72 | -69.94% | ― | 12.10% | -186.15% | |
42 Neutral | C$9.98M | -1.90 | ― | ― | 28.21% | 37.20% | |
41 Neutral | C$76.97M | -22.14 | -5.30% | ― | -34.67% | -203.85% |
* Technology Sector Average
KEEL
Keel Infrastructure
4.65
3.57
330.56%
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Keel Infrastructure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keel Infrastructure Appoints Ganesh Aiyer as President
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 5, 2026, Keel Infrastructure Corp. appointed industry veteran Ganesh Aiyer as President, effective July 6, 2026, with a mandate to lead commercial and pipeline expansion activities and report directly to CEO Ben Gagnon. Aiyer brings 25 yea...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Keel Infrastructure Completes Major Convertible Notes Financing
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Keel Infrastructure closed a $458 million offering of 1.250% convertible senior notes due 2032, including the full exercise of a $58 million overallotment option, generating approximately $445.4 million in net proceeds before offe...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Keel Infrastructure Prices Upsized Convertible Notes for Growth
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Keel Infrastructure Corp. announced it had priced an upsized private offering of $400 million in 1.250% convertible senior notes due 2032, with an additional $58 million option for initial purchasers and full senior unsecured guar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Keel Infrastructure Plans $350 Million Convertible Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Keel Infrastructure announced plans to offer $350 million of convertible senior notes due 2032, with Bitfarms Ltd. providing a senior unsecured guarantee and an option for initial purchasers to buy up to an additional $58 million ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.