SoftBank Group (9984) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥20.02T
• Dividend Yield: 0.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 22.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: 7.31%
• EPS Growth: 44.73%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 65,352
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 43.09
• Shares Outstanding: 5,711,848,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,688,840
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 22,757,256
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 91.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥5,080.00
• Price Target Upside: 44.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 654.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥7.71T

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,788.00 ▲(8.01% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is primarily held back by weak TTM cash flow (negative operating and deeply negative free cash flow) and elevated leverage, despite a strong rebound in reported profitability. Valuation is a major positive with a low P/E and very high dividend yield, while technical indicators are neutral-to-mildly constructive.

Positive Factors

Diversified investment & fund model

SoftBank’s core model is durable: recurring management fees, potential performance fees from Vision Funds, plus direct-investment upside and monetization channels. This multi-source investment economics supports long-term cash generation optionality and strategic flexibility across market cycles.

Consistent revenue growth trend

Sustained top-line expansion across several years indicates the business is scaling its investment and operating activities. Durable revenue growth reduces single-period earnings reliance on one-off gains and supports recurring fee and royalty streams, improving long-term financial resilience.

Improving equity position and ROE

A rebound in equity and ROE signals that recent profitability restored capital generation capacity after earlier losses. Stronger ROE enhances reinvestment potential and investor confidence, making future capital recycling and funding of new opportunities more sustainable.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Sustained debt above equity materially increases funding and market risk for a largely investment-driven balance sheet. High leverage raises interest and refinancing sensitivity, limits strategic optionality during downturns, and amplifies losses from portfolio markdowns over the medium term.

Weak operating cash conversion

Negative operating and free cash flow despite accounting profits indicates poor earnings-to-cash conversion that can pressure liquidity and the ability to fund operations or debt service without asset sales. If persistent, this weakens balance sheet durability and increases reliance on capital markets.

Earnings volatility & portfolio concentration

Heavy reliance on a few large stakes and fair-value swings creates pronounced profit volatility and makes reported earnings sensitive to market moves or single-asset events. This structural concentration raises uncertainty about the consistency of future profits and fee/carry realizations.

SoftBank Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services in Japan and internationally. It operates through five segments: Investment Business of Holding Companies, SoftBank Vision Funds, SoftBank, Arm, and Latin America Funds. The company offers mobile communications, broadband, and fixed-line communications services; and sells mobile devices. It is also involved in the internet advertising marketing, online advertising distribution, and e-book distribution services; planning and operation of fashion e-commerce website; mail-order sale of stationery and services; and design and development of mobile robots. In addition, the company designs microprocessor intellectual property and related technology; sells software tools; and generates, supplies, and sells electricity from renewable energy sources, as well as offers related services. Further, it provides alternative investment management, smartphone payment, PC software downloads, and banking services, as well as solutions and services for online businesses; distributes video, voice, and data content; manufactures, distributes, and sells IT-related products, as well as IT-related services; and manages funds. Additionally, the company operates a professional baseball team; and ITmedia, an IT information site, as well as manages and maintains baseball stadium and other sports facilities. It also plans and operates ZOZOTOWN, ZOZO, and ZOZOBASE websites. The company was formerly known as SoftBank Corp. and changed its name to SoftBank Group Corp. in July 2015. SoftBank Group Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

SoftBank Group makes money primarily through investment-related income and, to a lesser extent, income from operating subsidiaries and equity-accounted affiliates. 1) Investment gains (core driver) - Realized gains on investments: SoftBank sells stakes in portfolio companies or completes monetization transactions (e.g., partial stake sales, secondary offerings), generating realized capital gains (or losses) recognized in its financial results. - Unrealized valuation changes: Because a large portion of its assets are equity stakes in public and private companies, changes in fair value can create significant unrealized gains or losses that flow through earnings (depending on accounting treatment for the specific holdings/instruments). - Dividends/other distributions: Some equity holdings may pay dividends, which contribute to investment income when received. 2) Fund management and performance-related economics (Vision Funds) - Management fees: Through managing investment vehicles such as the SoftBank Vision Funds, the group earns recurring fee income based on committed or invested capital, depending on the fund terms. - Performance fees (carried interest): If fund investments perform above defined hurdles, SoftBank may earn performance-linked compensation (carry). The amount is tied to realized (and, under certain accounting regimes, sometimes recognized based on fair value movements) fund performance and can be highly volatile. - Co-investment returns: SoftBank often invests alongside its funds (or via the holding company), so it can earn additional returns directly from the same deals. 3) Earnings from major holdings and subsidiaries - Arm-related earnings: As an owner of Arm, SoftBank benefits from Arm’s business performance through its consolidated results and/or changes in Arm’s valuation. Arm’s underlying business generates revenue from licensing its semiconductor IP and collecting royalties on chips that incorporate Arm designs. - Other subsidiaries/affiliates: Where SoftBank consolidates operating companies, their operating revenues and profits contribute to group results. Where it holds significant influence (but not control), it may record equity-method income/losses. 4) Financing, capital recycling, and balance sheet strategy - Debt-financed investing: SoftBank uses various funding sources (including debt) to acquire and hold investments. Returns can be amplified when asset values rise, but interest expense reduces net earnings and increases sensitivity to valuation declines. - Asset monetization to fund new investments and strengthen liquidity: The group has historically recycled capital by selling liquid holdings and using proceeds for new investments, share buybacks, debt repayment, or liquidity management. This can create episodic income depending on the timing and price of disposals. Key factors influencing earnings - Portfolio valuation and market conditions: Technology equity valuations, IPO markets, interest rates, and private-market pricing strongly affect both realized exits and unrealized fair value movements. - Concentration risk: Large positions in a small number of holdings can materially swing results. - Fund performance and fee structures: Vision Fund fee and carry income depends on investment performance and the specific contractual terms with limited partners. Significant partnerships or contributors: null

SoftBank Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows strong revenue growth and a sharp profitability rebound in 2025/TTM, but earnings durability is reduced by prior multi-year losses. Balance sheet leverage is consistently high (debt above equity), raising risk. Cash flow is the biggest concern, with TTM negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow despite high net income (weak earnings-to-cash conversion).

Income Statement

Revenue is growing steadily in the annual periods (from 2022 to 2025) and jumps sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Profitability is volatile: annual results swung from large losses (2022–2024) to a return to solid profitability in 2025, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows very strong net income. Margins are generally strong at the gross level, but operating and net profitability have been inconsistent year-to-year, which lowers confidence in the durability of earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-heavy, but leverage is meaningfully elevated, with debt running above equity across all periods (debt-to-equity roughly 1.4–1.8x). Equity has improved versus earlier years, and returns on equity rebound strongly in 2025 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) after negative returns in 2022–2024. The key weakness is the consistently high leverage profile, which increases sensitivity to market and funding conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven and recently weak: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow, despite very high reported net income—an unfavorable conversion of earnings into cash. Annual cash flow was healthier in some years (notably 2022 and 2025 positive free cash flow), but free cash flow has swung between positive and negative multiple times. The main risk is the current cash burn profile in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which can pressure liquidity if sustained.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.66T	7.24T	6.76T	6.57T	6.22T	5.63T
Gross Profit	3.95T	3.75T	3.54T	3.33T	3.27T	2.87T
EBITDA	5.16T	1.60T	1.47T	980.26B	365.37B	1.45T
Net Income	3.68T	1.15T	-227.65B	-970.14B	-1.71T	4.99T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	55.56T	45.01T	46.72T	43.94T	47.54T	45.75T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.65T	3.71T	6.19T	6.93T	5.33T	5.32T
Total Debt	25.21T	18.91T	16.19T	16.05T	17.79T	16.46T
Total Liabilities	37.44T	31.06T	33.49T	33.29T	35.84T	33.79T
Stockholders Equity	15.45T	11.56T	11.16T	9.03T	9.98T	10.21T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.10T	118.98B	-372.06B	107.53B	1.89T	-89.64B
Operating Cash Flow	-773.41B	973.15B	250.55B	741.29B	2.73T	557.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.56T	-1.71T	-841.46B	547.58B	-3.02T	-1.47T
Financing Cash Flow	5.70T	-1.81T	-606.22B	191.52B	602.22B	2.19T

SoftBank Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3507.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9984, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3507 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3793.35, below the 50-day MA of 4074.30, and below the 200-day MA of 4056.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -178.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9984.

SoftBank Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9433	71 Outperform	¥10.08T	16.09	13.75%	2.85%	3.34%	20.36%
9984	66 Neutral	¥20.02T	25.22	24.50%	0.25%	7.31%	44.73%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
3774	60 Neutral	¥430.11B	19.63	15.67%	1.31%	12.48%	18.38%
9434	60 Neutral	¥10.31T	19.08	―	3.99%	7.79%	5.53%
9449	56 Neutral	¥285.09B	24.87	17.97%	1.36%	4.75%	17.02%
9432	56 Neutral	$13.38T	9.80	11.22%	3.36%	2.10%	-9.29%