Kozosushi Co., Ltd. (9973) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥8.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: 8.93%
• EPS Growth: -10.94%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 338
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 294,621,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,350,080
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,278,370
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 40.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.24
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥29.00 ▲(26.09% Upside)

Kozosushi Co., Ltd.'s overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including persistent losses and high leverage. While technical analysis shows positive momentum, poor valuation metrics due to negative earnings weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Strong multi-year revenue expansion

Sustained tripling of revenue from 2020 to 2024 indicates durable demand and successful scale-up of locations and offerings. This top-line momentum provides a structural foundation for future margin improvement and investment in operations or marketing over the next 2–6 months.

Branded restaurant and takeout model

A dual-format model (branded restaurants plus takeout) supports recurring foot traffic and expanding off-premise sales, aligning with longer-term consumer preferences for convenience. This structural mix can enable operating leverage and stable revenue streams as the business scales.

Consistent revenue growth rate

Mid-single-digit to high-single-digit reported revenue growth suggests steady expansion rather than volatile spikes. Such a consistent growth rate can be sustained through incremental store openings and same-store sales improvements, supporting cash generation prospects if margins are addressed.

Negative Factors

Very high financial leverage

Extremely high leverage and minimal equity constrain strategic flexibility, increase refinancing and interest-rate risk, and raise bankruptcy vulnerability. Over a multi-month horizon this weakens the company's ability to invest in growth or absorb shocks without external financing.

Persistent unprofitability

Consistent negative EBIT and net margins show the company still cannot convert rising sales into profits. Ongoing losses erode retained capital and make it harder to build reserves, compromising long-term shareholder returns unless structural cost or pricing changes occur.

Negative free cash flow and poor cash conversion

Negative free cash flow and poor conversion of earnings to cash indicate the business requires external financing to sustain operations and expansion. This persistent cash deficit limits reinvestment capacity and raises solvency concerns over the coming months absent material cash-flow improvement.

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KOZO Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates and franchises Kozo Sushi stores. The company was formerly was Kozosushi Co., LTD. and changed its name to KOZO Holdings Co.,Ltd. in June 2024. KOZO Holdings Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan

How the Company Makes Money

Kozosushi generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, where it sells a variety of sushi dishes, including nigiri, sashimi, and rolls, as well as other Japanese foods like ramen and tempura. Key revenue streams include dine-in sales, takeout services, and catering for events. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with local suppliers and distributors to ensure a steady supply of fresh seafood and ingredients, which can help reduce costs and improve margins. Seasonal promotions and special menu offerings also contribute to revenue by attracting customers. The brand's reputation for quality and authenticity can lead to repeat business and customer loyalty, further bolstering its financial performance.

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. faces significant financial challenges. Despite revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable with negative EBIT and net income margins. High leverage and negative cash flow metrics further highlight operational and financial inefficiencies.

Income Statement

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. has experienced significant revenue growth from 2020 to 2024, with the revenue increasing from ¥6.21 billion to ¥18.11 billion. However, the company has been consistently unprofitable, with negative EBIT and net income margins throughout the period. The net profit margin for 2024 was -4.32%, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. Despite revenue growth, profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a very high debt-to-equity ratio, as the company has minimal equity compared to its liabilities, indicating a high leverage risk. In 2024, the debt-to-equity ratio was 10.52. The equity ratio was only 1.75%, underscoring the company's reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative due to consistent losses, signaling poor performance in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. has struggled with negative free cash flow in recent years, with the free cash flow in 2024 being -¥257 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in converting sales into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating challenges in managing capital expenditures and generating cash from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.88B	18.11B	13.05B	10.29B	8.02B	6.21B
Gross Profit	7.41B	6.81B	5.17B	5.10B	3.67B	3.18B
EBITDA	-221.25M	-290.00M	-163.73M	-692.56M	-399.32M	70.56M
Net Income	-758.80M	-782.65M	-338.00M	-953.57M	-619.62M	27.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.15B	6.00B	5.63B	3.20B	6.20B	1.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	670.25M	1.13B	997.00M	425.60M	1.52B	133.16M
Total Debt	991.53M	1.11B	1.27B	633.25M	2.23B	220.40M
Total Liabilities	4.71B	5.87B	5.34B	2.76B	5.51B	1.38B
Stockholders Equity	419.04M	106.00M	267.00M	421.84M	684.05M	306.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-275.39M	151.00M	-777.83M	-161.84M	-319.80M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-49.37M	203.00M	-607.00M	130.60M	-60.81M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-169.82M	302.84M	-220.41M	752.01M	-227.75M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	359.23M	50.41M	79.19M	131.53M	182.66M

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9973, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.90, below the 50-day MA of 28.84, and below the 200-day MA of 24.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9973.

Kozosushi Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9828	72 Outperform	¥57.03B	12.65	―	2.41%	6.49%	4.27%
9279	68 Neutral	¥74.47B	34.02	―	0.67%	26.01%	16.33%
7630	66 Neutral	¥146.37B	51.78	―	1.71%	9.51%	6.29%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
7421	58 Neutral	¥77.46B	59.64	―	0.32%	0.51%	4.92%
7616	54 Neutral	¥189.72B	86.95	―	0.29%	8.99%	61.95%
9973	50 Neutral	¥8.54B	-9.94	―	―	8.93%	-10.94%