Ministop Co., Ltd. (9946) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥51.78B
• Dividend Yield: 0.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 79.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.30
• Revenue Growth: 10.66%
• EPS Growth: -218.40%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,443
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Department Stores
• EPS (TTM): -90.39
• Shares Outstanding: 29,372,774
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 124,000
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 79,523
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: -44.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥94.70B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,814.00 ▼(-15.82% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 07/18/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 07/18/25

The overall stock score for Ministop Co., Ltd. reflects significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability impacting the score heavily. While technical analysis suggests bullish momentum, overbought signals and weak valuation metrics contribute to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Franchise-based business model

A franchise model creates recurring, asset-light revenue streams through fees, royalties and supply transactions. This structure supports scalability and cash generation with lower incremental capex, helping sustain revenue even if company-operated store growth is slow.

Low leverage / equity coverage

A relatively strong equity position and low debt provide balance sheet flexibility to absorb shocks, fund strategic initiatives, support franchisees, or invest in store improvements without large interest burdens, preserving solvency over the medium term.

High-margin prepared-food categories

Prepared foods and desserts typically deliver higher gross margins and drive customer frequency. Sustained focus and execution in these categories can boost profitability, differentiate the brand, and increase basket size, improving long-term margin sustainability if operational issues are fixed.

Negative Factors

Negative profitability and falling margins

Persistently negative net and gross margins indicate structural operational inefficiencies and pricing or cost pressures. Without margin recovery, earnings power remains impaired, limiting reinvestment, franchise support, and the ability to generate sustainable returns to shareholders.

Negative and erratic free cash flow

A pattern of negative and volatile free cash flow constrains the company's ability to fund growth, remodel stores, or support franchisees organically. Ongoing negative FCF increases reliance on external financing and raises vulnerability in prolonged downturns.

Negative return on equity from net losses

Negative ROE signals the company is destroying shareholder capital rather than creating it. Continued net losses will erode equity value, hinder capital raising, and undermine investor confidence unless operational turnaround restores profitability and returns.

Ministop Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MINISTOP Co., Ltd. develops and franchises a chain of convenience stores under the MINISTOP name. As of April 30, 2022, it operated 2,081 stores, including 1,958 stores in Japan and 123 stores internationally. MINISTOP Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Chiba, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Ministop primarily makes money through (1) retail sales at company-operated stores and (2) franchise-related income from franchised MINISTOP stores. Retail sales revenue comes from selling merchandise (e.g., packaged foods, beverages, daily necessities) and prepared items made or finished in-store (including hot snacks and soft-serve-style desserts), with profitability influenced by product mix and gross margins. Franchise-related revenue is generated via fees and other payments from franchisees in exchange for the right to operate under the MINISTOP brand and access to the company’s operating know-how, merchandising, and supply chain; royalties and/or franchise service fees are typical components of this model, but the specific fee structure is null. Additional earnings can come from supply/wholesale-type transactions with franchisees (e.g., selling goods through distribution channels to franchised stores), while the scale and breakdown of these transactions are null. The company’s performance is driven by same-store sales, the number and mix of company-operated vs. franchised locations, and the strength of high-margin categories such as ready-to-eat foods and desserts.

Ministop Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ministop Co., Ltd. is facing significant financial difficulties. The income statement reveals declining revenues and negative profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable but indicates low leverage and negative return on equity. Cash flow is erratic, with negative free cash flow, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Income Statement

Ministop Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant decline in total revenue from 2022 to 2025, with a notable drop in gross profit margin. The net profit margin is negative, indicating the company is not profitable. The persistent negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest operational inefficiencies. Revenue growth has been negative over the past year, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity ratio, with stockholders' equity covering a substantial portion of total assets. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating limited leverage, which is a positive but may also suggest a lack of aggressive growth strategies. Return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, pointing to profitability challenges.

Cash Flow

Ministop's cash flow statements show a fluctuating free cash flow, with a negative trend in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is erratic due to negative net income. Despite generating operating cash flow, the free cash flow remains negative, suggesting high capital expenditure relative to cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Feb 2025	Feb 2024	Feb 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	91.69B	87.47B	79.06B	81.29B	183.68B	180.19B
Gross Profit	39.79B	37.68B	37.42B	36.93B	49.70B	47.85B
EBITDA	765.00M	-414.00M	2.92B	2.45B	7.77B	6.41B
Net Income	-5.59B	-6.77B	-468.00M	12.83B	-3.87B	-6.46B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	88.81B	74.69B	77.90B	79.22B	117.26B	107.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.18B	23.90B	25.78B	30.43B	29.66B	15.28B
Total Debt	695.00M	247.00M	307.00M	1.65B	14.57B	13.41B
Total Liabilities	55.44B	41.90B	37.22B	38.60B	88.77B	75.43B
Stockholders Equity	32.69B	32.51B	39.64B	40.61B	28.45B	32.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-1.09B	-2.28B	-3.11B	-7.24B	7.28B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	1.94B	585.00M	-2.07B	-3.62B	11.35B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-492.00M	-6.62B	5.09B	22.09B	-2.44B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-806.00M	-1.96B	-1.57B	-4.86B	-4.73B

Ministop Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2155.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9946, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2155 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1851.10, above the 50-day MA of 1970.30, and above the 200-day MA of 1985.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -58.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9946.

Ministop Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8273	63 Neutral	¥216.74B	17.32	―	3.01%	18.89%	-34.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
8278	61 Neutral	¥174.15B	100.03	―	1.44%	1.48%	-33.32%
2653	58 Neutral	¥97.24B	156.97	―	1.54%	4.07%	47.70%
7512	56 Neutral	¥121.96B	44.01	―	1.77%	8.65%	-45.94%
9946	53 Neutral	¥51.78B	-5.76	―	0.94%	10.66%	-218.40%
8217	45 Neutral	¥33.05B	-145.82	―	3.11%	1.46%	-436.55%

Ministop Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Ministop Grows Revenue but Widens Losses, Keeps Dividend Amid Weaker Balance Sheet

Ministop reported a 5.2% year-on-year increase in gross operating revenue to ¥70.0 billion for the nine months ended November 30, 2025, but remained in the red, posting an operating loss of ¥1.4 billion and a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of ¥2.1 billion, deeper than the prior-year loss. The company’s equity ratio declined to 35.6% from 43.5% as net assets fell, indicating some balance-sheet weakening, yet it maintained its dividend policy, paying an interim ¥10 per share and forecasting a full-year ¥20 per share payout, even as it projects a full-year net loss of ¥6.0 billion and negative earnings per share, highlighting an ongoing profitability challenge despite top-line growth and an updated, more pessimistic earnings forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9946) stock is a Hold with a Yen1987.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ministop Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9946 Stock Forecast page.

Ministop Posts Modest Revenue Growth Amid Cost Pressures in Q3 FY2026

Ministop has released supplementary data for its third quarter results for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2026, detailing consolidated and non-consolidated performance, sales structures, gross profit margins, and store counts in Japan and overseas. The figures show modest growth in gross operating revenue and operating gross profit alongside continued cost pressures, especially in personnel and store-related expenses, resulting in relatively thin operating profits and highlighting management’s focus on improving efficiency across its franchise and directly managed store network.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9946) stock is a Hold with a Yen2047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ministop Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9946 Stock Forecast page.

Ministop Posts Higher Revenue but Deeper Losses, Maintains Dividend Outlook

Ministop reported a 5.2% year-on-year increase in gross operating revenue to ¥70.0 billion for the nine months ended November 30, 2025, but remained in the red, posting an operating loss of ¥1.45 billion and a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of ¥2.12 billion, widening its per-share loss to ¥73.07. The company’s equity ratio fell to 35.6% from 43.5% as total assets expanded and net assets declined, underscoring ongoing profitability and capital efficiency challenges even as sales grow; management nonetheless kept its dividend policy intact with an annual forecast of ¥20 per share and now projects a full-year net loss of ¥6.0 billion on ¥97.0 billion in revenue, signaling continued pressure on earnings despite top-line expansion and a revision to its previous forecast.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9946) stock is a Hold with a Yen2047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ministop Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9946 Stock Forecast page.

MINISTOP Slashes FY2026 Profit Forecast After Food Labeling Issue, Accelerates Structural Reforms

MINISTOP has sharply revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2026, now projecting an operating loss of ¥3.5 billion and a net loss of ¥6.0 billion, compared with a previously expected small profit, while maintaining its gross operating revenue outlook at ¥97 billion. The downgrade stems from the temporary nationwide suspension of sales of hand-made rice balls and related items after improper expiration-date labeling was discovered, which depressed sales and triggered higher costs tied to preventive measures and kitchen safety enhancements. In response, the company is gradually resuming sales of the affected products under stricter systems and training, revamping in-store food provision methods, expanding both low-priced and high-value-added product lines, and intensifying promotions and store layout initiatives to stimulate related purchases. It is also accelerating structural reforms by deciding on closures of unprofitable stores within the current fiscal year and reallocating management resources toward revitalizing existing outlets and new store formats, aiming to restore profitability and reinforce its positioning as a leader in food safety and security within the convenience store sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9946) stock is a Hold with a Yen2047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ministop Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:9946 Stock Forecast page.