Aeon Hokkaido Corporation (7512) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥127.52B
• Dividend Yield: 1.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 102.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.12
• Revenue Growth: 8.65%
• EPS Growth: -45.94%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,390
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Department Stores
• EPS (TTM): 5.12
• Shares Outstanding: 139,420,290
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 108,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 102,023
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥945.00 ▲(6.42% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by mixed fundamentals—thin/compressing margins and negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with a modest uptrend and positive momentum signals, but valuation is a headwind due to the high P/E and only moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth

Sustained 156% TTM revenue growth indicates the company is expanding market share or same-store sales materially, which supports long-term scale advantages: higher bargaining power with suppliers, improved category economics, and a larger customer base to monetize via loyalty and cross-sell.

Positive operating cash flow

Positive operating cash flow (~¥16.4B TTM) shows the core retail business generates cash from daily operations, underpinning working-capital needs and reinvestment capacity. Over months, this supports stable operations, inventory management and funding of strategic store or e-commerce initiatives.

Parent/group backing and diversified formats

As an Aeon Group subsidiary with supermarkets, malls and multiple retail formats in Hokkaido, the company benefits from group buying, brand recognition, supplier access and cross-promotional channels. These structural advantages support resilience and lower unit costs over time.

Negative Factors

Thin and compressing margins

Very low EBIT and net margins limit the firm's ability to absorb cost inflation or fund investment from earnings. Even with revenue growth, weak operating leverage suggests profitability is fragile and long-term margin recovery will be essential to improve returns and cash conversion.

Negative free cash flow

Negative free cash flow (‑¥2.3B TTM) despite positive OCF implies capex or working-capital needs outpace operating cash. Persisting FCF deficits constrain debt reduction, dividends or strategic investments and increase reliance on external financing, harming financial flexibility over months.

Rising leverage and weakening ROE

An uptick in leverage and a falling ROE reduce balance-sheet resilience and increase fixed interest costs, limiting ability to pursue growth or absorb shocks. Over 2–6 months, higher leverage can pressure credit metrics and constrain strategic moves without clear cash-flow improvement.

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation (7512) is a prominent retail company based in Hokkaido, Japan, specializing in the operation of supermarkets and shopping malls. The company is a subsidiary of the Aeon Group, one of the largest retail and distribution organizations in Asia. Aeon Hokkaido operates a range of retail formats, including general merchandise stores, grocery stores, and convenience stores, catering to diverse consumer needs across the region. Its core products include food items, household goods, clothing, and various consumer products, positioning it as a key player in the local retail market.

How the Company Makes Money

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation generates revenue primarily through its retail operations, which encompass the sale of a wide array of products including groceries, clothing, and household items. The company earns money from direct sales in its supermarkets and shopping centers, benefiting from high foot traffic and a loyal customer base. Additionally, revenue is augmented through strategic partnerships with suppliers and brands, allowing for promotional events and exclusive product offerings that drive sales. The company also explores various revenue streams through loyalty programs and membership services, which enhance customer retention and spending. Furthermore, Aeon Hokkaido may benefit from real estate income derived from leasing retail space within its shopping centers to third-party businesses, thereby diversifying its income sources.

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows modest TTM revenue growth (+2.18%) but profitability is thin and has compressed (TTM net margin ~0.8% vs FY2024 ~1.74%). Balance sheet is serviceable but leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~0.61 TTM vs ~0.41 FY2024) and ROE declined (~4.4% TTM vs ~8.6% FY2024). The biggest drag is cash flow quality: operating cash flow is positive (~¥13.7B) but TTM free cash flow is negative (~-¥6.2B) with volatility across years.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew (+2.18%), showing steady top-line momentum. Profitability is positive but thin for retail: TTM gross margin is ~27.8% while net margin is ~0.8%, and profits have compressed versus FY2024 (net margin ~1.74% and higher operating margin). Overall, the business is growing modestly but earnings are more pressured recently, limiting the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate but trending higher: debt-to-equity rose from ~0.41 in FY2024 to ~0.61 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), alongside higher absolute debt. Equity remains sizable (~¥72.0B TTM) and ROE is positive (~4.4% TTM), but down meaningfully from FY2024 (~8.6%), indicating reduced efficiency and/or margin pressure. Balance sheet is serviceable, but the direction on leverage and returns is a watch item.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~¥13.7B), but free cash flow is negative (~-¥6.2B), implying heavier investment and/or weaker cash conversion. Cash generation has been volatile across years (strong positive free cash flow in FY2023–FY2024, sharply negative in FY2022, and negative again in TTM), which increases execution and liquidity risk if the negative free cash flow persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	401.01B	377.48B	356.01B	339.66B	340.80B	338.46B
Gross Profit	110.76B	105.84B	100.95B	102.26B	100.13B	99.81B
EBITDA	16.13B	12.31B	15.09B	13.32B	11.10B	13.64B
Net Income	3.60B	3.61B	6.19B	4.71B	3.83B	5.85B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	196.58B	187.26B	156.27B	152.97B	152.09B	144.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.99B	4.37B	3.84B	3.90B	3.77B	6.30B
Total Debt	43.50B	46.44B	29.09B	29.63B	35.53B	19.93B
Total Liabilities	123.83B	114.20B	84.61B	85.81B	88.02B	82.39B
Stockholders Equity	72.75B	73.06B	71.67B	67.16B	64.08B	61.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.32B	-4.94B	4.04B	6.19B	-12.79B	6.90B
Operating Cash Flow	16.44B	12.87B	12.23B	14.88B	868.00M	13.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-16.61B	-34.00B	-7.86B	-8.81B	-13.53B	-7.05B
Financing Cash Flow	1.56B	21.67B	-4.43B	-5.94B	10.13B	-4.25B

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 888.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7512, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 888 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 906.75, below the 50-day MA of 893.72, and below the 200-day MA of 891.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7512.

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8255	73 Outperform	¥108.40B	11.50	―	2.53%	5.57%	27.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
8273	61 Neutral	¥215.86B	18.12	―	3.01%	18.89%	-34.43%
8278	61 Neutral	¥178.66B	46.86	―	1.44%	1.48%	-33.32%
2653	58 Neutral	¥102.07B	13.36	―	1.54%	4.07%	47.70%
7512	56 Neutral	¥127.52B	35.48	―	1.77%	8.65%	-45.94%
3222	53 Neutral	¥174.08B	87.68	―	1.77%	30.67%	―