Tokai (9729) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥84.07B
• Dividend Yield: 2.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 76.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 8.92%
• EPS Growth: -21.75%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 4,254
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 64.38
• Shares Outstanding: 33,092,148
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 40,720
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 76,590
• PEG Ratio: -0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,883.00 ▲(19.33% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 11/13/25
• Date: Action: Upgraded 11/13/25

Tokai's strong financial performance, characterized by consistent revenue growth and a robust balance sheet, is the primary driver of its stock score. The technical analysis indicates a positive trend, though caution is advised due to potential bearish signals. The valuation is reasonable, with an attractive dividend yield. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet

A very high equity ratio and negligible leverage provide durable financial flexibility: lowers bankruptcy risk, supports capital allocation for leasing assets, and allows investment or dividends without relying on volatile debt markets over the next several quarters.

Consistent revenue growth

Sustained top-line growth near 8% signals stable demand for rental and leasing services and supports scale advantages; over 2–6 months this trend underpins recurring cash flows and incremental margin potential as fixed costs are absorbed.

Strong cash generation

Improved operating cash conversion and positive free cash flow reflect effective working capital and capex management, enabling sustainable reinvestment in fleet, debt service capacity, and shareholder returns without stressing liquidity.

Negative Factors

Declining net profit margin

A falling net margin reduces retained earnings and signals cost or pricing pressure in the leasing business; if persistent it will constrain ability to fund growth and lower long-term ROE and free cash flow available for investment.

Lower return on equity

Declining ROE highlights weaker profitability relative to equity base; with a large equity cushion this can persistently weigh on shareholder returns unless management improves asset utilization or margins to translate equity strength into higher returns.

Negative EPS growth

Negative EPS growth indicates earnings pressure despite revenue gains, implying rising costs or lower leverage on sales; sustained EPS declines limit retained earnings growth and reduce flexibility for reinvestment or dividend increases.

Tokai Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokai (9729) is a Japanese company primarily engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of high-quality ceramics and glass products. Operating in various sectors, including construction materials, household goods, and industrial applications, Tokai is recognized for its innovative designs and commitment to sustainability. The company's core offerings include ceramic tiles, tableware, and specialty glass products, catering to both domestic and international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Tokai generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of its ceramic and glass products to retailers, wholesalers, and directly to consumers. The company benefits from a diversified product portfolio, which allows it to tap into various markets and reduce dependence on any single revenue source. Additionally, Tokai has established significant partnerships with construction firms and interior design companies, enhancing its market reach and boosting sales. The company's commitment to innovation and sustainability also attracts premium pricing for its eco-friendly products, contributing to higher profit margins.

Tokai Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tokai demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and stable profitability. The balance sheet is robust, with low leverage and high equity, ensuring financial security. Cash flow position has improved, supporting operational and investment activities. However, slight declines in net profit margins and ROE suggest areas for efficiency improvements.

Income Statement

Tokai shows a consistent revenue growth trend with a 8.18% increase from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains steady at around 23.7%, indicating stable profitability. However, net profit margin declined slightly from 4.2% to 3.2%, suggesting pressure on net income despite revenue growth. The EBIT margin remains stable, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity base with a high equity ratio of approximately 74.8%, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.02, highlighting minimal leverage and low financial risk. Return on equity decreased slightly to 5.6%, suggesting a need for improved efficiency in generating profits from equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow improved significantly, resulting in positive free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.13, indicating effective cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income also shows a positive trend, reflecting improved capital expenditure management.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	153.51B	149.54B	138.22B	130.18B	123.48B	118.01B
Gross Profit	36.31B	35.44B	33.64B	31.92B	30.98B	29.38B
EBITDA	12.58B	12.47B	13.13B	13.26B	12.63B	10.94B
Net Income	4.36B	4.73B	5.81B	6.11B	5.81B	5.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	114.05B	113.95B	114.93B	110.78B	105.90B	102.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.22B	26.86B	31.68B	37.00B	36.16B	35.24B
Total Debt	2.05B	2.12B	1.82B	2.30B	2.72B	3.12B
Total Liabilities	27.58B	28.10B	28.14B	28.56B	28.38B	28.30B
Stockholders Equity	85.79B	85.19B	86.18B	81.65B	77.00B	73.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	5.99B	-664.00M	2.37B	5.99B	5.95B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	10.10B	8.04B	8.59B	10.13B	9.23B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-11.41B	-10.21B	-6.24B	-6.74B	-4.20B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-5.20B	-3.20B	-2.43B	-2.90B	-1.97B

Tokai Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2416.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9729, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2416 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2561.45, below the 50-day MA of 2538.66, and above the 200-day MA of 2278.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9729.

Tokai Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9699	79 Outperform	¥126.69B	10.89	―	2.85%	8.02%	4.39%
8439	72 Outperform	¥1.09T	8.41	―	3.37%	5.24%	69.92%
9729	71 Outperform	¥84.07B	15.84	―	2.51%	8.92%	-21.75%
8424	64 Neutral	¥411.32B	14.78	―	3.62%	-0.03%	-42.34%
5834	62 Neutral	¥49.96B	7.88	―	3.90%	0.17%	58.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Tokai Corporate Events

Tokai Reshapes Executive Lineup to Sharpen Focus on Linen and Elderly Care Operations

Tokai Corp. has announced a slate of management changes effective April 1, 2026, including the appointment of Daisuke Matsui as a new corporate officer overseeing the Bedding & Linen Supply Business Division, with responsibility for sales in the Eastern Region. The move signals a strengthening of leadership in its core linen operations, aligning executive roles more closely with regional and business-line priorities.

The company is also realigning responsibilities among existing corporate officers, notably expanding oversight in its elderly care business across distinct regions and separating finance and corporate planning leadership from operational roles in care subsidiaries. These changes clarify management lines, consolidate regional control in the growing elderly care segment, and are likely aimed at improving operational efficiency and governance across Tokai’s main business divisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9729) stock is a Buy with a Yen2856.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai stock, see the JP:9729 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Corp. Outlines Q3 FY3/26 Performance and Capital Investment Trends

Tokai Corp. released supplementary materials for its financial results briefing covering the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The disclosure outlines consolidated net sales, operating profit trends, profit and loss, balance sheet status, and capital investment results, providing investors with a structured view of performance.

The document also highlights key topics affecting the group and situates recent results within Tokai’s broader business domains and history. While detailed figures are not included in the summary, the materials signal continued emphasis on segment-based analysis and capital allocation, offering stakeholders insight into how the group is managing its portfolio and positioning for future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9729) stock is a Buy with a Yen2900.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai stock, see the JP:9729 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Posts Strong Nine-Month Profit Growth and Lifts Annual Dividend

Tokai Corp. reported consolidated net sales of ¥119.9 billion for the nine months ended Dec. 31, 2025, up 7.2% year on year, with operating profit rising 20.4% to ¥6.8 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent climbing 16.7% to ¥5.1 billion. Earnings per share improved to ¥154.51, aided by higher profitability and a reduction in shares outstanding following treasury share retirement.

Total assets as of Dec. 31, 2025 stood at ¥117.7 billion while net assets were ¥83.5 billion, with the equity ratio easing to 70.3% from 74.5% after reflecting finalized accounting for a prior business combination. Tokai maintained its full-year forecast, projecting modest sales and operating profit growth but a 16.3% increase in full-year profit attributable to owners of parent and a higher annual dividend of ¥68 per share, including a ¥5 commemorative component, signaling continued commitment to shareholder returns despite a slightly lower equity ratio and the exclusion of Bilmen Co., Ltd. from consolidation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9729) stock is a Buy with a Yen2900.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai stock, see the JP:9729 Stock Forecast page.