TOHO GAS Co (9533) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥493.63B
• Dividend Yield: 1.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 201.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 7.08%
• EPS Growth: 43.50%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 6,042
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 42.33
• Shares Outstanding: 98,220,085
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 184,110
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 201,023
• PEG Ratio: -5.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥5,827.00 ▲(21.32% Upside)

TOHO GAS Co's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and a stable financial performance. The stock's upward momentum and robust cash flow position are significant strengths. However, the valuation is only moderate, reflecting a fair price relative to earnings and a modest dividend yield. The absence of earnings call insights and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Robust free cash flow generation

A nearly 295% jump in free cash flow materially strengthens TOHO GAS's ability to fund capital expenditures, maintain pipelines, and invest in energy solutions without external financing. This durable cash conversion supports dividends, debt servicing, and strategic investments over the medium term.

Conservative leverage and strong equity base

A low D/E and high equity ratio indicate a resilient balance sheet for a capital-intensive utility. This structural financial strength provides flexibility to finance network maintenance, LNG procurement timing, and regulatory capex needs, preserving credit profiles through business cycles.

Stable revenue growth and healthy gross margins

Consistent top-line expansion and a ~26% gross margin reflect steady demand and effective cost control in core gas supply and adjacent services. For a regulated regional gas provider, these durable trends underpin predictable cash flows and capacity to fund long-term network and service investments.

Negative Factors

Pressure on net profitability

A declining net margin compresses retained earnings and reduces financial headroom for reinvestment. Over time, persistent margin erosion can lower ROE, constrain dividend policy, and force either cost cuts or higher tariffs—both of which carry regulatory and commercial risks for a utility.

Material absolute debt level

Although leverage ratios appear moderate, the sizable absolute debt stock requires steady cash generation and refinancing capacity. Interest rate moves, prolonged demand weakness, or large capex needs could stress liquidity and elevate financing costs for this capital-intensive operator.

Exposure to LNG procurement and market liberalization

Heavy reliance on LNG procurement ties margins to volatile global fuel markets and procurement timing. Weather and industrial demand swings affect volumes, while retail market liberalization increases competitive pressure on pricing and customer retention—structural risks to long-term margin stability.

TOHO GAS Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TOHO GAS Co., Ltd. is a leading energy company based in Japan, primarily engaged in the supply of natural gas and electricity. The company operates within the utilities sector, focusing on the production, distribution, and sale of gas, as well as offering related services such as installation and maintenance. TOHO GAS serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers, providing them with energy solutions that support their heating, cooking, and electricity needs.

How the Company Makes Money

TOHO GAS generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and electricity to its customer base. The company charges consumers based on the volume of gas and electricity consumed, which constitutes its main revenue stream. Additionally, TOHO GAS earns income from service fees related to the installation and maintenance of gas appliances, as well as other energy-related services. The company may also benefit from partnerships with local governments and other businesses to expand its infrastructure and service offerings, thus enhancing its market reach and revenue potential. Regulatory frameworks and energy pricing policies in Japan significantly influence TOHO GAS's earnings, as they determine pricing structures and operational costs.

TOHO GAS Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TOHO GAS Co presents a stable financial position with consistent revenue growth and strong equity ratios. The company shows robust cash flow generation, which supports its operational needs and strategic investments. While profitability metrics show some pressure on net income, the overall financial health remains solid, supported by efficient cost management and a strong equity position.

Income Statement

TOHO GAS Co has demonstrated a steady revenue growth trend with a notable increase in Total Revenue from ¥632.99 billion to ¥656.01 billion, representing a growth rate of 3.64%. Gross Profit Margin is strong at 26.29%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the Net Profit Margin decreased to 3.88%, indicating pressure on net earnings. EBIT Margin at 4.65% and EBITDA Margin at 11.69% show moderate operational efficiency, though there's room for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio stands at 0.35, indicating a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) is 5.68%, which is modest but stable. The Equity Ratio is strong at 59.10%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, the high total debt level of ¥155.49 billion presents a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

TOHO GAS Co exhibits a robust cash flow position with a significant increase in Free Cash Flow from ¥9.84 billion to ¥38.85 billion, translating to a remarkable growth rate of 294.96%. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 3.26, highlighting efficient cash conversion from operations. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is at 1.53, indicating effective use of free cash flow to support net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	671.38B	656.01B	632.99B	706.07B	515.31B	434.78B
Gross Profit	178.60B	172.46B	171.54B	180.19B	153.70B	149.26B
EBITDA	84.42B	76.67B	79.52B	85.40B	58.58B	51.92B
Net Income	28.41B	25.45B	27.30B	33.72B	15.46B	8.59B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	739.90B	758.76B	734.52B	693.51B	655.59B	601.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.94B	46.75B	29.77B	34.01B	32.30B	50.73B
Total Debt	154.52B	155.49B	129.87B	118.14B	101.65B	123.82B
Total Liabilities	291.18B	310.37B	277.67B	291.01B	272.84B	242.34B
Stockholders Equity	448.71B	448.39B	456.85B	402.50B	382.75B	359.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	38.85B	9.84B	16.68B	-3.60B	30.09B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	83.10B	47.38B	56.41B	35.44B	64.40B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-45.16B	-42.08B	-52.44B	-54.88B	-40.97B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-18.77B	-14.24B	-2.94B	635.00M	-6.76B

TOHO GAS Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4803.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9533, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4803 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5110.60, below the 50-day MA of 4881.16, and above the 200-day MA of 4438.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 99.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9533.

TOHO GAS Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9531	77 Outperform	¥2.59T	12.26	11.05%	1.53%	5.72%	148.08%
9536	76 Outperform	¥87.05B	8.69	9.07%	3.61%	9.39%	77.24%
8174	76 Outperform	¥324.47B	24.44	21.07%	3.28%	4.45%	53.88%
9533	73 Outperform	¥493.63B	17.51	6.03%	1.81%	7.08%	43.50%
9543	70 Outperform	¥91.22B	9.30	8.29%	3.89%	1.08%	37.11%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
9532	63 Neutral	¥2.33T	12.57	10.44%	1.98%	1.99%	95.71%

TOHO GAS Co Corporate Events

Toho Gas Advances Share Buyback Under Capital Return Plan

Toho Gas disclosed that it repurchased 515,500 shares for ¥2.62 billion via open-market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026, as part of a previously authorized buyback program targeting up to 5 million shares or ¥15 billion through March 2026; cumulative repurchases now total about 2.2 million shares worth ¥10.38 billion, signaling sustained capital return efforts and potentially supporting per-share metrics while limiting share supply.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9533) stock is a Buy with a Yen5604.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOHO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9533 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Gas Announces Four-for-One Stock Split and Revamps Shareholder Benefits

Toho Gas will implement a four-for-one stock split of its common shares effective April 1, 2026, aiming to lower its share investment unit, broaden its investor base, and improve liquidity. In conjunction with the split, the company will amend its Articles of Incorporation to increase authorized shares from 160 million to 640 million, keep the fiscal year ending March 2026 year-end dividend calculated on pre-split shares, and overhaul its shareholder benefit program from the fiscal year ending March 2027 to recalibrate point allocations and further incentivize long-term shareholding, moves that are likely to make the stock more accessible and potentially strengthen shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9533) stock is a Buy with a Yen5716.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOHO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9533 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Gas Lifts Profit and Dividends on Steady Nine-Month Results

Toho Gas reported consolidated net sales of ¥465.4 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 1.0% year on year, with operating income climbing 18.4% to ¥25.8 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent rising 9.1% to ¥24.1 billion, reflecting improved profitability versus the prior year. The company’s financial position remained solid with total assets of ¥777.0 billion and an equity ratio of 59.4%, while it confirmed a higher annual dividend plan of ¥90 per share for FY2025, up from ¥80 in the previous fiscal year, and maintained full‑year guidance calling for slightly lower sales but higher net income, signaling stable operations and continued shareholder returns despite a modest top‑line decline outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9533) stock is a Buy with a Yen5716.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOHO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9533 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Gas Advances Board-Approved Share Buy-back Program

Toho Gas Co., Ltd. has repurchased 495,400 shares of its common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, at a total cost of approximately ¥2.34 billion, as part of its ongoing share buy-back program authorized under Japan’s Companies Act. This transaction brings the cumulative total of shares repurchased under the current authorization, effective from October 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026, to 1,684,200 shares for about ¥7.76 billion, signaling continued execution of the board-approved capital allocation plan of up to 5 million shares or ¥15 billion and underlining the company’s focus on enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9533) stock is a Buy with a Yen5030.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOHO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9533 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Gas Co., Ltd. Announces Share Buy-back Program

Toho Gas Co., Ltd. announced a share buy-back program, repurchasing 440,900 shares for approximately ¥2.1 billion between November 1 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader plan approved by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 5 million shares, valued at up to ¥15 billion, by March 31, 2026, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9533) stock is a Buy with a Yen5030.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOHO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9533 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Gas Announces Share Buyback to Enhance Shareholder Value

Toho Gas Co., Ltd. has announced the repurchase of 747,900 shares of its common stock, valued at approximately ¥3.31 billion, as part of a broader plan to buy back up to 5 million shares by March 2026. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing the company’s capital structure, reflecting a commitment to returning value to its investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9533) stock is a Buy with a Yen5030.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOHO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9533 Stock Forecast page.