TOKYO GAS Co (9531) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.70T
• Dividend Yield: 1.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 953.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: 5.72%
• EPS Growth: 148.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 15,504
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 371,090,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 822,840
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 953,273
• PEG Ratio: -0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥8,109.00 ▲(29.99% Upside)

TOKYO GAS Co's stock score is primarily driven by strong technical analysis indicators, suggesting bullish momentum. Financial performance shows moderate stability with challenges in profitability and debt management. Valuation is reasonable, providing a balanced outlook. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Market Position / Business Model

TOKYO GAS's core role as the primary city-gas supplier in the Tokyo metropolitan area creates durable demand and high customer density. The regulated utility model and diversified offerings (gas, electricity retail, energy services, LNG value chain) provide steady cash flow and scope for cross-selling over the medium term.

Equity Base / Balance Sheet Resilience

A healthy stockholders' equity base offers a balance-sheet cushion that supports capital-intensive infrastructure investment and regulatory obligations. Strong equity relative to assets improves solvency metrics, helping the company access financing and absorb shocks while investing in long-term network and LNG infrastructure.

Operating Cash Generation

Consistent ability to convert earnings into operating cash provides durability for funding working capital, routine capex, and customer service operations. Reliable operating cash flow underpins financial flexibility even if free cash flow varies, helping sustain operations and service obligations in the regulated energy business.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

An increasing debt-to-equity ratio raises financial risk over the medium term by elevating interest burden and reducing flexibility to finance projects or withstand earnings volatility. For a capital-intensive utility, higher leverage can constrain investment choices and increase sensitivity to rate or demand shocks.

Declining Profitability / Margins

Persistent pressure on gross and net margins suggests cost or pricing headwinds (e.g., LNG procurement costs, tariff mix) that can erode long-term returns. Sustained margin declines reduce internal funding for capex, lower ROE, and heighten reliance on external financing to sustain infrastructure and service expansions.

Inconsistent Free Cash Flow

Volatile or negative free cash flow across multiple years undermines the company's ability to deleverage, invest in growth projects, or return capital to shareholders. In a business requiring steady infrastructure investment, inconsistent FCF raises execution and funding risk over the coming months.

TOKYO GAS Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the production, supply, and sale of city and liquid gas, and LNG in Japan. The company operates through five segments: Gas, Electric Power, Overseas, Energy Related, and Real Estate. It offers engineering solutions; gas installation work and construction; and gas pipelines services, as well as engages in gas appliances business. The company is also involved in overseas resource development and investment, and energy supply activities. In addition, it engages in the real estate development business; and leasing and management of land and buildings. The company was incorporated in 1885 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

TOKYO GAS generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates on a regulated pricing model, where gas prices are determined by government regulations, ensuring a stable revenue stream. Additionally, TOKYO GAS has diversified its income through electricity sales, leveraging the deregulation of the electricity market in Japan. It also earns revenue from ancillary services, such as energy efficiency consulting and maintenance services for gas appliances. Significant partnerships with local governments and participation in renewable energy projects contribute to its earnings, as the company invests in sustainable energy solutions and infrastructure, positioning itself for future growth.

TOKYO GAS Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TOKYO GAS Co presents a mixed financial picture. The income statement demonstrates moderate profitability and revenue growth challenges. The balance sheet indicates solid equity but rising leverage, while the cash flow statement reveals adequate operating cash flow with concerns over free cash flow consistency. The company needs to address profitability pressures and manage its debt levels to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

TOKYO GAS Co has shown a mixed performance in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin has been declining, indicating potential pressure on cost management or pricing. The net profit margin has also decreased, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Revenue growth rates have been inconsistent, with a notable drop in 2024, followed by a slight recovery. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, pointing to volatility in operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects moderate stability with room for improvement in profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of TOKYO GAS Co exhibits strong equity, with a healthy stockholders' equity base relative to total assets. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased, indicating rising leverage which could pose a risk if not managed properly. The equity ratio suggests a solid financial structure, though the rising debt levels warrant attention. Return on equity has been volatile, reflecting fluctuations in profitability relative to equity. Overall, the balance sheet shows resilience but highlights the need to monitor debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics for TOKYO GAS Co indicate challenges in maintaining consistent free cash flow growth, with negative growth in several years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests that the company is generating sufficient cash from operations relative to its net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has been inconsistent, reflecting variability in capital expenditure and cash generation. Overall, the cash flow statement shows adequate operational cash flow but highlights concerns regarding free cash flow sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.70T	2.64T	2.66T	3.29T	2.15T	1.77T
Gross Profit	447.35B	406.24B	475.26B	693.17B	598.61B	552.52B
EBITDA	525.39B	396.93B	484.24B	632.59B	352.64B	259.49B
Net Income	156.02B	74.19B	165.48B	280.92B	95.70B	49.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.65T	3.86T	3.89T	3.58T	3.22T	2.74T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	156.18B	244.49B	363.94B	453.51B	179.78B	159.09B
Total Debt	1.24T	1.34T	1.44T	1.24T	1.22T	1.07T
Total Liabilities	1.99T	2.05T	2.16T	1.99T	1.96T	1.56T
Stockholders Equity	1.59T	1.73T	1.70T	1.56T	1.25T	1.15T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	177.20B	117.07B	302.09B	-51.75B	46.15B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	363.12B	316.32B	487.03B	145.23B	255.57B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-263.53B	-362.01B	-203.52B	-224.66B	-295.91B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-255.98B	-58.34B	-22.40B	90.49B	52.01B

TOKYO GAS Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6238.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9531, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6238 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6638.90, below the 50-day MA of 6383.46, and above the 200-day MA of 5458.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 215.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.67 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9531.

TOKYO GAS Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9531	77 Outperform	¥2.70T	12.47	11.05%	1.53%	5.72%	148.08%
9536	76 Outperform	¥88.42B	8.78	9.07%	3.61%	9.39%	77.24%
8174	76 Outperform	¥305.35B	24.72	21.07%	3.28%	4.45%	53.88%
9533	73 Outperform	¥518.19B	18.20	6.03%	1.81%	7.08%	43.50%
9543	70 Outperform	¥93.74B	9.38	8.29%	3.89%	1.08%	37.11%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
9532	63 Neutral	¥2.47T	13.28	10.44%	1.98%	1.99%	95.71%

TOKYO GAS Co Corporate Events

Tokyo Gas Reports Ongoing Progress in Large-Scale Share Buyback Program

Tokyo Gas has reported progress on its ongoing share buyback program, acquiring 3,212,800 shares of its common stock for a total of approximately ¥20.9 billion via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026. This transaction forms part of a broader board-approved buyback plan announced in October 2025, which authorizes the repurchase of up to 20 million shares, or 5.4% of outstanding stock, for a maximum of ¥80 billion by March 31, 2026; as of the end of January, the company has cumulatively repurchased 8,753,200 shares worth about ¥55.0 billion, signaling a significant capital allocation initiative that supports shareholder returns and may influence Tokyo Gas’s capital structure and share liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9531) stock is a Buy with a Yen7774.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOKYO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9531 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Gas Profit Quadruples as Earnings Outlook and Dividend Payouts Are Raised

Tokyo Gas reported strong consolidated results for the nine months ended 31 December 2025, with net sales up 10.6% year on year to ¥2.04 trillion and operating profit surging 87.5% to ¥138.3 billion. Ordinary profit more than doubled and profit attributable to owners of parent jumped nearly fourfold to ¥166.3 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥474.54 despite a reduction in shares outstanding driven by increased treasury stock. While total assets fell modestly and the equity ratio slipped to 43.4%, the group maintained a solid financial base and continued active portfolio management, including the deconsolidation of two overseas-related entities as part of an ongoing reshaping of its consolidated structure. The company kept its dividend policy on an upward trajectory, having already paid an interim dividend of ¥50 per share and forecasting a full-year payout of ¥100 per share, up from ¥80 in the prior year, underscoring management’s confidence. For the full year to March 2026, Tokyo Gas raised its earnings outlook, now projecting ¥2.89 trillion in net sales and a 39.0% rise in operating profit to ¥185.0 billion, with profit attributable to owners of parent expected to climb 161.5% to ¥194.0 billion, signaling stronger profitability and improved returns for shareholders in a challenging energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9531) stock is a Buy with a Yen7556.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOKYO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9531 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Gas Reports Progress on Multi-Billion Yen Share Buyback Program

Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. reported progress on its ongoing share buyback program, disclosing that it purchased 3,020,900 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, for a total of ¥18.69 billion. Under the broader repurchase framework approved by its board on October 29, 2025, the company is authorized to acquire up to 20 million shares or ¥80 billion by March 31, 2026, and as of December 31 it had cumulatively bought 5,540,400 shares for ¥34.09 billion, signaling continued execution of its capital allocation policy and a likely supportive effect on shareholder value and per-share metrics if the program is carried through to completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9531) stock is a Buy with a Yen6740.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOKYO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9531 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Gas Completes Treasury Share Disposal for Employee Incentive Plan

Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. announced the completion of payment procedures for the disposal of treasury shares as part of a restricted stock incentive for its Employee Shareholding Association. The number of shares and total disposal amount were revised due to partial forfeiture, reflecting the number of members who agreed to the incentive plan. This adjustment indicates a strategic move to align employee interests with company performance, potentially impacting employee engagement and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9531) stock is a Buy with a Yen6740.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOKYO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9531 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Gas Advances Share Buyback Program

Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. has announced the progress of its share buyback program, acquiring 2,519,500 shares for approximately 15.39 billion yen between November 10 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a larger plan to acquire up to 20 million shares by March 31, 2026, reflecting the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9531) stock is a Buy with a Yen6740.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOKYO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9531 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyo Gas Transfers U.S. Subsidiary to Optimize Asset Portfolio

Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. announced the transfer of its membership interests in TGNR TVL LLC, a subsidiary involved in natural gas development in the U.S., to Grayrock Energy IV, LLC for USD 255 million. This move is part of Tokyo Gas’s strategy to optimize its asset portfolio and improve capital efficiency, aligning with its Compass 2030 vision to transform the LNG value chain and expand LNG trading operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9531) stock is a Buy with a Yen6740.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOKYO GAS Co stock, see the JP:9531 Stock Forecast page.