RENOVA (9519) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥68.85B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 560.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 48.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 28.85%
• EPS Growth: -9.70%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 287
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 3.55
• Shares Outstanding: 91,247,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 466,670
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 560,246
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥760.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 17.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥91.96B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥769.00 ▲(19.78% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is driven primarily by financial profile risks—especially high leverage and uneven cash conversion—offset by solid revenue growth and positive free cash flow. Technically, the stock shows a weak trend below major moving averages, while valuation is a relative positive with a low P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth & healthy margins

Sustained top-line growth combined with robust gross and EBITDA margins indicates the business generates healthy operating profitability. This durable margin profile supports reinvestment into projects and resilience to moderate price or volume swings over a multi-quarter horizon.

Positive free cash flow generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides an enduring source for capex, maintenance and debt service without relying solely on external financing. Growing FCF improves funding flexibility for long-term renewable projects and lowers structural liquidity risk.

Improving equity base / leverage trend

An improving equity base and reduction from peak leverage reflect progress on capital structure repair. Over months this trend can raise borrowing capacity and lower refinancing strain, supporting longer-term project funding and strategic options if sustained.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-to-equity near 3x materially constrains financial flexibility: interest burdens and refinancing needs increase sensitivity to rate moves and cyclical stress. High leverage limits ability to fund new projects internally and raises solvency risk if cash flows weaken.

Inconsistent cash conversion

Weak and inconsistent cash conversion means reported earnings are not fully backed by cash, exposing the business to working-capital timing swings. This structural inconsistency can force external financing in downturns and complicate reliable debt servicing over months.

Normalized and volatile margins

A reversion from peak margins to more normalized levels increases earnings variability tied to project timing and market conditions. Persistent margin volatility undermines predictability of free cash flow and long-term investment returns for stakeholders.

RENOVA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

RENOVA, Inc. operates in the renewable energy industry in Japan. It operates through Renewable Energy Power Generation Business and Renewable Energy Development and Operation Business segments. The Renewable Energy Power Generation Business segment generates and sells electricity from renewable energy power plants. The Renewable Energy Development and Operation Business segment develops and assists in the operation of renewable energy power plants. The company generates electricity through solar, biomass, wind, geothermal and hydro power plants. RENOVA, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

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RENOVA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and current profitability are solid and free cash flow is positive, but the balance sheet is highly leveraged (debt-to-equity ~3.16x) and cash conversion is mixed with historically inconsistent free cash flow, increasing financial risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is strong (about 10.9%), with healthy profitability (gross margin ~28.5%, EBITDA margin ~39.3%, net margin ~8.5%). However, margins and earnings quality look less robust versus prior annual peaks (notably much higher margins in FY2024), suggesting profitability has become more normalized and potentially more volatile from year to year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint: TTM debt-to-equity is high (~3.16x), even though it has improved from very elevated levels in earlier years. Equity has grown, but the capital structure is still debt-heavy for the business, and return on equity is modest in TTM (~6.8%), which limits financial flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with TTM operating cash flow (~¥26.4B) and free cash flow (~¥18.3B), and free cash flow is growing (about 4.6%). That said, operating cash flow covers only ~55% of net income in TTM and free cash flow is ~69% of net income, pointing to less-than-ideal cash conversion and some dependence on working-capital/timing effects; historically, free cash flow has also been inconsistent (negative in FY2022–FY2023).

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.63B	70.25B	44.75B	33.58B	29.34B	20.55B
Gross Profit	24.44B	17.65B	27.34B	23.61B	22.29B	18.41B
EBITDA	33.62B	25.47B	26.88B	17.15B	18.53B	21.54B
Net Income	7.24B	2.69B	8.86B	2.68B	1.58B	11.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	599.06B	529.81B	465.16B	303.38B	296.22B	220.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	86.48B	87.47B	66.49B	49.63B	44.28B	40.36B
Total Debt	347.13B	332.92B	306.87B	206.08B	207.10B	160.41B
Total Liabilities	426.43B	396.63B	359.70B	238.65B	243.78B	195.68B
Stockholders Equity	112.32B	88.87B	67.77B	42.95B	31.89B	15.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.33B	23.00B	2.82B	-804.00M	-3.35B	6.85B
Operating Cash Flow	26.43B	31.50B	18.73B	10.13B	12.15B	12.47B
Investing Cash Flow	-18.14B	-16.50B	-24.35B	-9.33B	-18.52B	-13.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-14.72B	-8.29B	1.38B	3.03B	3.37B	9.78B

RENOVA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 642.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9519, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 642 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 733.10, below the 50-day MA of 719.72, and below the 200-day MA of 764.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 21.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9519.

RENOVA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9513	82 Outperform	¥733.47B	6.68	7.17%	3.22%	-1.56%	9.17%
9509	71 Outperform	¥217.12B	13.52	13.70%	2.36%	-1.60%	-10.41%
9504	69 Neutral	¥360.23B	16.42	12.27%	3.23%	-1.02%	79.80%
9517	66 Neutral	¥75.68B	5.57	―	1.79%	-15.80%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
9511	63 Neutral	¥55.83B	3.56	4.73%	2.31%	-1.96%	33.15%
9519	53 Neutral	¥68.85B	48.38	7.71%	―	28.85%	-9.70%

RENOVA Corporate Events

RENOVA’s February Power Sales Rise Year on Year Despite Output Curtailments

RENOVA reported February 2026 electricity sales of 272.6 million kWh from 13 solar, seven biomass and one geothermal plant in Japan, 7.4% below its internal plan but up 47.1% year on year, reflecting the impact of newly added biomass capacity and strong contribution from existing facilities. Year-to-date, the company generated 2.95 billion kWh, 8.1% under plan but 23.1% higher than a year earlier, while output curtailments ordered by utilities affected only 0.129% of planned annual generation, suggesting limited financial impact and underscoring the resilience of RENOVA’s expanding renewable portfolio despite operational constraints and maintenance outages.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen686.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

Renova’s January Power Sales Beat Plan as Renewable Portfolio Expands

Renova reported January 2026 electricity sales of 289.7 million kWh from 21 solar, biomass and geothermal power plants in Japan, 2.0% above its internal plan and up 17.9% year on year. Cumulative generation for the fiscal year to date reached about 2.68 billion kWh, 7.8% below plan but 25.8% higher than the previous year, underscoring ongoing portfolio expansion driven mainly by biomass capacity.

Solar assets, priced largely at ¥36–40 per kWh under Japan’s feed-in-tariff regime, together with several large-scale biomass plants and a geothermal facility, continued to provide Renova with relatively stable contracted revenue streams. Output curtailment instructions from grid operators in January had only a minor financial impact, with lost generation equivalent to 0.039% of full-year revenue plans, indicating that grid-related restrictions remain manageable for the company’s overall earnings outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen693.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Flags Policy and Environmental Risks in Q3 FY2026 Supplementary Disclosure

RENOVA released supplementary material on its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, emphasizing that the information is for corporate disclosure rather than investment solicitation and that figures are based on consolidated data with power capacity shown on a DC basis. The company underscores significant uncertainty around its forward-looking statements, noting that its performance and project outcomes may be materially affected by changes in energy policy, regulatory schemes, permitting, land and facility development, and environmental factors, highlighting the operational and strategic risks that stakeholders must consider when evaluating its outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen728.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA Swings to Profit on Renewables Growth, Lifts Full‑Year Forecasts

RENOVA reported strong consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 31.6% year on year to ¥64.0 billion and EBITDA jumping 45.6%, driven by improved profitability in its power generation portfolio, including contributions from newly consolidated Karatsu Biomass Energy G.K. Operating profit more than tripled and profit attributable to owners of the parent swung to a ¥3.6 billion gain from a loss a year earlier, bolstering equity and lifting the equity ratio to 18.7%, though the company continues to refrain from paying dividends and guides to full‑year revenue of ¥90.5 billion and EBITDA of ¥31.6 billion, with a relatively modest full‑year profit forecast suggesting ongoing investment and earnings volatility in its growth-focused renewable energy strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen728.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.

RENOVA’s December Power Sales Beat Plan as Biomass Expansion Drives Strong Growth

RENOVA reported that its renewable energy power plants in Japan generated 306.4 million kWh of electricity in December 2025, slightly exceeding its plan by 1.0%, with year-on-year output for the month up 54.4% and year-to-date generation rising 145.0% versus the previous year. The strong growth reflects expanded biomass capacity, steady performance from its solar and geothermal assets, and only minor impact from utility-imposed output curtailment, which reduced total annual planned revenue by just 0.113%, underscoring the resilience of RENOVA’s generation portfolio and the limited financial effect of grid-related restrictions so far in the current fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9519) stock is a Hold with a Yen803.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RENOVA stock, see the JP:9519 Stock Forecast page.