Chubu Electric Power Company (9502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.94T
• Dividend Yield: 2.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 3.26%
• EPS Growth: -7.07%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 28,374
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 47.90
• Shares Outstanding: 758,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,514,250
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,171,170
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 42.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 255.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥3.57T

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,915.00 ▲(32.14% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/07/26

The score is driven by solid financial stability but weakened by deteriorating free cash flow. Valuation is a notable positive with a low P/E and reasonable dividend yield, while technicals are softer due to the stock trading below key short-term moving averages and low RSI.

Positive Factors

Regulated network revenue stability

Chubu's regulated transmission and distribution business provides predictable, regulation-backed cash flows and earnings. That structural stability underpins durability of core revenue, supports long-term capex planning and cushions generation volatility for 2–6+ months and beyond.

Solid balance sheet metrics

Reasonable leverage and a near-40% equity ratio give Chubu financial flexibility typical for utilities. A stable balance sheet supports continued capital investment in networks and generation, resilience to cyclical shocks, and capacity to service obligations without immediate refinancing risk.

Integrated generation and retail footprint

Vertical integration across generation, retail and networks allows capture of margins across the value chain, hedging between wholesale and retail channels, and operational coordination. Diversified activities reduce single-point revenue risk and support steady long-term cash generation.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow

A sharp fall in free cash flow and a very low FCF-to-net-income ratio constrain Chubu's ability to self-fund capital expenditure and sustain discretionary payouts. Persistent FCF weakness pressures liquidity and may force higher external financing over the medium term.

Modest profitability margins

Low single-digit margins limit internal earnings retention and reduce buffer against cost shocks. Modest revenue growth combined with thin margins makes it harder to expand investment or absorb higher fuel or commodity costs without squeezing shareholder returns or raising tariffs.

Fuel-cost exposure for thermal generation

Significant exposure to LNG and other fuel prices means sustained fuel cost inflation or adverse FX moves can materially compress generation spreads. That structural sensitivity raises earnings volatility and increases reliance on pass-throughs or hedging over the medium term.

Chubu Electric Power Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and retail of electricity in Japan and internationally. The company operates through three segments: JERA, Power Network, and Customer Service & Sales. It generates electricity through thermal, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, biomass, and solar sources. The company is also involved in the fuel upstream, power generation procurement, and wholesale of electricity and gas businesses; and provides power network services. In addition, it engages in the construction for the development and maintenance of electric utilities-related facilities; and manufacture of materials and machinery for electric utilities-related facilities. Further, the company is involved in the gas supply, on-site energy, consulting and investment, real estate management, IT businesses, etc. Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Chubu Electric Power makes money mainly by providing electricity across the value chain and earning regulated and market-based revenues through separate but coordinated businesses within the group. 1) Regulated network revenues (Transmission & Distribution) - The company earns stable, regulation-based income from operating the power grid (transmission and distribution). Revenue is largely derived from network usage charges (wheeling fees) paid by electricity retailers and other market participants for delivering electricity to end users. These charges are set under Japan’s regulatory framework and are generally designed to allow recovery of approved costs plus a permitted return, making this a comparatively stable earnings source versus power generation. 2) Electricity retail revenues (Sales to end customers) - The retail business earns revenue by selling electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Retail revenue depends on sales volume (kWh), customer mix, and pricing plans. Profitability is influenced by the spread between retail tariffs/prices and the cost to procure electricity (from the company’s own generation and/or from wholesale markets) plus balancing and system-related charges. 3) Power generation and wholesale/market revenues - The generation business earns money by producing electricity and selling it into the group’s retail channel and/or into wholesale markets. Revenue is influenced by dispatch volumes, fuel costs, plant availability, and wholesale power prices. Thermal generation economics are particularly sensitive to fuel procurement costs (e.g., LNG, coal) and market price movements. 4) Fuel procurement and energy trading - The group engages in fuel procurement (notably LNG and other fuels for thermal generation) and related trading/optimization activities. Earnings can come from managing procurement costs, contract optimization, and trading margins in electricity and fuel markets where applicable. 5) Renewable energy and other energy-related services - The company also earns revenue from renewable generation (e.g., solar, wind, hydro where applicable) and may receive market revenues and/or scheme-based revenues depending on Japan’s support mechanisms. In addition, it generates income from energy-related and ancillary services tied to its core utility operations (specific product details not available: null). Significant partnerships or contributing factors - Specific named partnerships and contract terms (e.g., individual fuel supply agreements, joint ventures, or major counterparties) are not provided here: null. Key factors affecting earnings typically include regulatory decisions for network charges, wholesale electricity price levels, fuel price and foreign exchange movements, demand trends, and generation mix/availability.

Chubu Electric Power Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stable balance sheet (debt-to-equity 1.11, equity ratio 39.1%, ROE 7.3%) and modest profitability (net margin 5.5%), but cash generation is a key weakness with sharply lower free cash flow growth (-69.82%) and low FCF-to-net income (0.14).

Income Statement

Chubu Electric Power Company has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin for 2025 is 6.6%, indicating moderate efficiency in cost management. The net profit margin for 2025 stands at 5.5%, reflecting some profitability but lower than in previous years. The revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 is 1.63%, showing stability but limited growth. The EBIT margin is 6.6%, and the EBITDA margin is 12.6%, suggesting a moderately healthy operational performance with room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Chubu Electric Power Company indicates a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.11, which is reasonable for the industry, indicating balanced leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 7.3%, which is a good return for shareholders. The equity ratio is 39.1%, showing a strong proportion of equity financing. Overall, the company maintains a solid balance between debt and equity, though the debt levels are relatively high.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges in free cash flow management. The free cash flow growth rate from 2024 to 2025 is -69.82%, reflecting a significant decline. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.49, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.14, highlighting constraints in generating free cash flow. These factors point to potential cash management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.58T	3.67T	3.61T	3.99T	2.71T	2.94T
Gross Profit	226.49B	530.64B	618.42B	342.65B	185.70B	387.75B
EBITDA	355.78B	412.42B	526.78B	273.59B	145.05B	337.66B
Net Income	237.51B	202.09B	403.14B	38.23B	-43.02B	147.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.50T	7.12T	7.11T	6.46T	6.17T	5.69T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	352.43B	293.55B	390.81B	361.32B	203.21B	176.46B
Total Debt	3.27T	3.10T	2.98T	2.91T	2.79T	2.40T
Total Liabilities	4.42T	4.27T	4.41T	4.29T	4.05T	3.58T
Stockholders Equity	3.01T	2.79T	2.59T	2.06T	2.02T	2.03T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	28.80B	95.41B	46.75B	-210.47B	172.21B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	301.35B	344.07B	295.80B	21.69B	384.15B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-391.77B	-388.33B	-196.93B	-262.02B	-215.81B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-27.65B	87.08B	73.25B	266.40B	-141.12B

Chubu Electric Power Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2206.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9502, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2206 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2545.88, below the 50-day MA of 2418.88, and above the 200-day MA of 2137.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 27.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9502.

Chubu Electric Power Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9503	75 Outperform	¥2.76T	6.37	14.42%	2.44%	2.08%	19.52%
9508	74 Outperform	¥833.89B	5.24	16.95%	3.00%	5.81%	102.00%
9531	72 Outperform	¥2.71T	14.41	11.05%	1.53%	5.72%	148.08%
9502	67 Neutral	¥1.94T	12.59	8.26%	2.75%	3.26%	-7.07%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
9532	63 Neutral	¥2.54T	11.58	10.44%	1.98%	1.99%	95.71%
9501	52 Neutral	¥1.05T	5.29	-22.13%	―	-2.28%	-794.92%