Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. (9444) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.19B
• Dividend Yield: 4.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 2.44%
• EPS Growth: 88.27%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 132
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 40.65
• Shares Outstanding: 6,536,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,740
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,136
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.22
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥312.00 ▼(-49.10% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/11/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/11/25

Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. has a low overall stock score due to significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and profitability, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation reflects poor earnings performance. These factors collectively contribute to a low investment attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Authorized distributor model

Toshin's role as an authorized agent/distributor creates durable revenue streams tied to carrier commissions, handset sales and plan activations. This business model gives ongoing transactional revenue, carrier-backed product access, and customer touchpoints that support recovery and repeat service sales over months.

Positive operating cash flow

Despite broader cash pressures, core operations generate positive operating cash flow, indicating underlying cash conversion from retail and service operations. That operational cash foundation can sustain essential activities and fund gradual restructuring over several months if preserved and improved.

Lean operating footprint

A relatively small employee base suggests lower fixed labor costs and greater agility to cut overhead or redeploy staff. This lean footprint supports faster cost adjustment, improving the firm's ability to restore margins and adapt retail/service operations during a multi-month turnaround.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 7x indicates very high leverage that constrains strategic flexibility. Elevated interest and principal obligations limit investment in retail, marketing or systems, increase refinancing risk, and make the company vulnerable to cashflow shocks over the coming months.

Negative free cash flow

Persistently negative free cash flow means the company cannot self-fund capex or debt service without external financing. This forces reliance on lenders or equity, raises liquidity pressure, and limits capacity to invest in customer retention or retail improvements needed for durable recovery.

Revenue and margin deterioration

A sharp drop in revenue and compressing gross margins signal structural demand loss or pricing pressure in core retail channels. Reduced scale erodes profitability and the ability to cover fixed costs, making margin recovery and sustained cash generation difficult without strategic change.

Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toshin Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the mobile communication related business in Japan. It is involved in the mobile shop operation and sales, agency sales, shop management consignment, and corporate sales, real estate, and resort businesses. The company also acquires, develops, manages, and rents condominiums and office buildings. In addition, it operates golf courses and driving ranges; selling drinking water; selling OA equipment and air conditioners; and managing golfs shops. Toshin Holdings Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

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Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. is facing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, the balance sheet indicates high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.91, and the cash flow statement reveals liquidity issues with negative free cash flow. These factors collectively indicate poor financial health.

Income Statement

Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant decline in revenue, with a negative growth rate of -66% in the latest period. The gross profit margin has decreased from 25.17% to 16.56%, indicating reduced profitability. The net profit margin turned negative, reflecting a net loss. Despite a slight improvement in EBIT margin, the overall income statement shows declining performance and profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 6.91, indicating high leverage and potential financial risk. Stockholders' equity has decreased, and the equity ratio is low, suggesting limited financial stability. The balance sheet reflects a concerning level of debt relative to equity, which could impact future financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive but low relative to net income, with a ratio of 0.026. Free cash flow is negative and has deteriorated significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of -2.72. The cash flow statement highlights liquidity challenges and insufficient cash generation to cover expenses.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.89B	17.48B	17.13B	16.42B	18.07B	20.98B
Gross Profit	2.10B	2.89B	3.65B	3.21B	3.59B	3.28B
EBITDA	-287.83M	441.96M	698.06M	262.41M	959.99M	1.02B
Net Income	-133.58M	-84.53M	142.18M	-209.67M	344.78M	-657.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.31B	24.53B	24.19B	22.74B	23.37B	23.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.35B	3.08B	2.08B	2.34B	2.73B	3.58B
Total Debt	16.60B	16.50B	17.04B	15.25B	15.35B	14.44B
Total Liabilities	21.15B	22.11B	21.56B	20.12B	20.40B	20.64B
Stockholders Equity	3.14B	2.39B	2.60B	2.60B	2.95B	2.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-765.81M	-1.97B	-19.91M	-1.63B	607.84M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	281.78M	231.94M	294.17M	-212.13M	1.28B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	1.58B	-1.91B	262.65M	-1.14B	-584.17M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-852.45M	1.45B	-356.56M	773.12M	-551.27M

Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 613.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9444, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 613 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 363.70, above the 50-day MA of 407.20, and above the 200-day MA of 529.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -20.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 17.40 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9444.

Toshin Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9441	74 Outperform	¥33.66B	10.09	―	2.41%	9.69%	41.84%
9272	71 Outperform	¥15.64B	9.02	―	―	13.72%	-82.05%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
9270	59 Neutral	¥25.28B	3.19	―	0.95%	4.14%	―
8289	53 Neutral	¥9.99B	-2.93	―	4.61%	3.14%	-183.07%
8165	45 Neutral	¥6.00B	2.43	―	―	-4.10%	―
9444	41 Neutral	¥2.19B	6.35	―	4.81%	2.44%	88.27%