ispace,inc. (9348) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥90.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.32
• Revenue Growth: 136.16%
• EPS Growth: 16.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 282
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): -11.59
• Shares Outstanding: 146,199,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,858,180
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,199,866
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 15.29
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -78.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥6.10B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥614.00 ▲(31.20% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/21/26

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial quality—ongoing losses, worsening negative free cash flow, and leverage risk—despite very strong revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, but valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, multi-year revenue acceleration demonstrates rising commercial demand for lunar payload services and successful customer acquisition. Over 2–6 months this durable top-line momentum supports scaling of operations, strengthens bargaining power with suppliers, and underpins longer-term contract pipeline expansion.

Improving Equity Position

Movement from negative to positive equity ratio signals a structurally stronger balance sheet and reduced insolvency risk. This improvement improves access to capital and strategic partnerships, enabling investment in follow-on missions and technology while lowering probability of covenant stress over the medium term.

Focused Business Model

A clear, specialized business model centered on lunar landers and mission services positions the company in an early but growing niche of space infrastructure. Durable industry tailwinds around lunar exploration and resource utilization create structural demand for repeatable mission services and ancillary engineering revenues.

Negative Factors

Persistent Losses

Consistently negative operating and net margins indicate the company is not yet generating profitable operations. Over months this undermines internal financing capacity, raises dependence on external capital, and makes achieving a sustainable earnings profile contingent on significant margin improvement or structural cost reductions.

Worsening Free Cash Flow

Deepening negative free cash flow and negative operating cash flow reflect heavy cash burn from mission development and capex. This durable liquidity pressure increases financing needs, heightens refinancing and dilution risk, and constrains the firm's ability to fund multiple missions without external support.

High Leverage Risk

A high debt-to-equity ratio combined with negative returns on equity indicates leverage is amplifying risk rather than funding profitable growth. Over time this raises interest and covenant vulnerability, limits strategic flexibility, and could force prioritization of debt service over R&D or mission cadence if revenue does not convert to positive cash flow.

ispace,inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ispace, inc., a lunar resource development company, engages in designing and building lunar landers and rovers to transport customer payloads to the moon. The company also offers payload services, including video and driving data acquisition, as well as resource harvesting systems; and cameras, communications devices, and cell cultivation devices. In addition, it provides lunar data services, such as imaging, environmental data, telemetry, and resources information to government space agencies, universities, research institutions, and private companies for information, mission planning, and lunar surface development. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

ispace generates revenue through multiple streams, including contracts for lunar missions from government agencies and commercial partnerships. The company has secured agreements for payload delivery services, allowing businesses and organizations to send scientific equipment and other payloads to the Moon. Additionally, ispace has established collaborations with various space agencies and private companies that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach. The commercialization of lunar resources and potential future ventures in lunar infrastructure development also represent significant revenue opportunities for the company.

ispace,inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (674M in 2022 to 4.74B in 2025) is a major positive, but it is outweighed by persistent losses (negative EBIT/EBITDA and net margins), high leverage risk, and worsening negative free cash flow (from -5.5B to -14.5B) indicating weak operating sustainability and liquidity pressure.

Income Statement

The company has experienced strong revenue growth, increasing from 674 million in 2022 to 4.74 billion in 2025, which is a positive indicator of market demand and expansion. However, the profitability metrics are concerning, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicating operational inefficiencies. The net profit margin is also negative, reflecting significant losses over the years. Although revenue is growing, sustaining such high losses is a risk.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, with significant total debt compared to stockholders' equity, suggesting financial leverage risk. The equity ratio has improved from negative in 2023 to positive in 2025, indicating a strengthening position. However, the return on equity remains negative, showing that the company is not yet generating returns for its shareholders.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a worrying trend of negative free cash flow, which has worsened from -5.5 billion in 2022 to -14.5 billion in 2025. Operating cash flow remains negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from operations to cover its expenses. This is compounded by significant capital expenditures, pointing to potential liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.27B	4.74B	2.36B	989.24M	674.14M	506.64M
Gross Profit	2.37B	2.24B	928.24M	552.77M	334.59M	336.32M
EBITDA	-11.83B	-10.50B	-1.58B	-11.11B	-3.96B	-2.53B
Net Income	-13.24B	-11.95B	-2.37B	-11.40B	-4.06B	-2.61B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.96B	27.19B	27.03B	7.19B	12.49B	8.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.46B	13.12B	16.83B	3.38B	6.33B	4.26B
Total Debt	31.60B	16.10B	12.52B	6.78B	2.16B	230.00M
Total Liabilities	35.19B	20.18B	17.29B	9.54B	3.66B	1.18B
Stockholders Equity	3.78B	7.01B	9.75B	-2.35B	8.83B	7.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-14.49B	-7.08B	-7.41B	-5.50B	-2.73B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-12.05B	-5.02B	-7.32B	-5.41B	-2.62B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-2.67B	-2.06B	-90.09M	-90.33M	-213.34M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	10.42B	20.37B	4.36B	7.46B	3.52B

ispace,inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 468.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9348, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 468 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 599.65, below the 50-day MA of 541.74, and below the 200-day MA of 587.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9348.

ispace,inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6670	80 Outperform	¥224.81B	14.35	―	2.70%	10.23%	8.78%
6750	79 Outperform	¥163.46B	7.47	12.77%	2.84%	4.48%	22.39%
7739	76 Outperform	¥148.12B	22.80	―	1.92%	7.46%	-8.01%
6737	69 Neutral	¥94.24B	18.89	―	4.76%	1.81%	9.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6588	55 Neutral	¥181.34B	-28.80	-6.22%	1.61%	-4.91%	-136.94%
9348	49 Neutral	¥90.21B	-6.21	―	―	136.16%	16.29%

ispace,inc. Corporate Events

ispace to Establish Saudi Subsidiary to Expand Lunar Business

ispace, inc. has decided the details of a new wholly owned subsidiary in Saudi Arabia, as approved by its board on February 25, 2026, to expand its lunar exploration and development business in the Kingdom. The new entity, ispace S A, based in Riyadh with capital of 700,000 dollars, is intended to deepen relationships with local stakeholders and cultivate long-term partnerships, although the company does not expect a material impact on its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026.

The Saudi subsidiary will be a consolidated unit of ispace, with senior executives including CEO Takeshi Hakamada and CFO Jumpei Nozaki serving concurrently as directors to align strategy and oversight. By establishing a legal presence in the Kingdom after obtaining necessary approvals, ispace aims to position itself for future business opportunities in the region’s growing space and technology sector while maintaining its current financial guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Hold with a Yen598.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.

ispace Updates Q3 FY2026 Results and Revises Financial Forecast

ispace released its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, providing an overview of performance and progress across its lunar mission portfolio. The materials outline key business highlights, updates on existing and future missions, and the company’s main performance indicators.

The company also announced a revision of its financial forecast, signaling adjustments to its expected trajectory for the current fiscal year. By detailing the external environment and operational progress, the update offers stakeholders insight into how ispace is positioning itself within the emerging commercial lunar exploration market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Hold with a Yen642.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.

ispace Books ¥2.1 Billion in FX Gains for First Three Quarters of FY2026

ispace, inc. reported significant non-operating income in the form of foreign exchange gains for the nine months ended December 31, 2025. The gains stem primarily from the revaluation of foreign currency-denominated loans extended to its consolidated subsidiaries, reflecting exchange rates at the end of the third quarter.

For the third quarter alone, the company booked a foreign exchange gain of ¥1,585 million, on top of ¥505 million recorded in the first half of the fiscal year. This brought total foreign exchange gains to ¥2,091 million for the nine-month period, and the impact of these gains has been incorporated into the company’s consolidated financial results for the first three quarters of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Hold with a Yen642.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.

ispace cuts FY2026 sales outlook as engine delays push back lunar mission revenues

ispace has revised its consolidated forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, cutting expected net sales from ¥6.2 billion to ¥3.4 billion, while newly disclosing project revenue of ¥6.0 billion that includes government grants. The revision stems mainly from delays in engine development for Missions 3 and 4, which have postponed milestone-based customer payments and reduced eligible grant-related project revenue, but do not affect the total contract values for those missions.

Despite the weaker top line, the company now expects narrower operating, ordinary, and net losses than previously forecast, helped by lower development expenses and foreign exchange gains. ispace warned that continued delays in achieving target performance for the new engine, or a possible switch to an alternative engine, could push back the launch schedules for Missions 3 and 4, underscoring execution risk in its lunar program and the timing of future revenue recognition.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Hold with a Yen642.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.

ispace Widens Balance Sheet as Losses Persist Amid Lunar Growth Push

ispace reported consolidated net sales of ¥2.74 billion for the first three quarters to December 31, 2025, up 37.9% year on year, while net loss attributable to owners narrowed to ¥6.25 billion as the company continues heavy investment in lunar exploration projects. Total assets nearly doubled to ¥50.8 billion and the equity ratio improved to 32.9%, supported by capital raising that increased shares outstanding, though the company maintained a no-dividend policy.

For the full year to March 31, 2026, ispace forecasts project revenue of ¥6.0 billion and net sales of ¥3.4 billion, but expects a substantial operating loss of ¥10.0 billion and net loss of ¥7.2 billion as it prioritizes growth and mission development over near-term profitability. The revised guidance, disclosed alongside plans for an analyst briefing, signals continued reliance on subsidies and capital markets while the company builds scale and seeks to solidify its competitive position in the commercial lunar services market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Hold with a Yen642.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.

ispace Wins JAXA Backing for ¥20 Billion Lunar South Pole Landing and Relay Satellite Project

ispace has been selected by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for a Space Strategy Fund Phase 2 project to develop technology for high-precision landings in the lunar polar regions, with its proposal “High-Precision Landing Near the South Pole and Support for Payload Activities in Polar Regions Using Communication Relay Satellites” eligible for funding of up to ¥20 billion over a period of up to five years. The funded technology will be implemented on Mission 6, scheduled for 2029, using an advanced lunar lander derived from the company’s Series 3 platform to demonstrate precision landings near the lunar south pole—an area believed to contain significant water ice reserves crucial for future deep-space fuel supply and long-term lunar infrastructure. By pairing the lander with a communication relay satellite that will remain in lunar orbit after Mission 6, ispace aims to establish operational experience, enable high-precision access to challenging terrains such as polar regions and potential “lunar pits,” and lay the groundwork for robust communication and data relay infrastructure that can support future commercial, scientific, and human activities across the Moon, including its far side.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Hold with a Yen535.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.

ispace, inc. Expands to Saudi Arabia with New Subsidiary

ispace, inc. has announced the establishment of a new subsidiary in Saudi Arabia, aiming to enhance partnerships and explore business opportunities in the region. The subsidiary, expected to be established in 2026, will focus on lunar exploration and development services, with no significant immediate impact on the company’s financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9348) stock is a Sell with a Yen444.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ispace,inc. stock, see the JP:9348 Stock Forecast page.