Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥688.76B
• Dividend Yield: 1.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 6.30%
• EPS Growth: -16.29%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 12,283
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 38.66
• Shares Outstanding: 517,233,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,049,760
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,251,646
• PEG Ratio: -0.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -29.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 92.75
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥332.10B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,325.00 ▲(2.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/10/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/10/25

Keisei Electric Railway Co's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its stock score. However, technical indicators suggest a neutral market position, and cash flow challenges could pose risks if not addressed.

Positive Factors

Revenue & profit recovery

Sustained revenue growth and a high net profit margin indicate structurally stronger demand for Keisei’s services and improved cost management. This expanded earnings base supports long-term cash generation capacity, funding of station-area businesses, and resilience to cyclical passenger fluctuations.

Healthy equity & improved ROE

Moderate leverage combined with a near-50% equity ratio and materially improved ROE reflects disciplined capital structure and better returns on invested capital. This balance provides financial flexibility for infrastructure spending and property projects while limiting refinancing vulnerability.

Diversified transit and property model

A multi-leg business model—commuter rail, airport access, bus services plus transit-oriented real estate and retail—creates diversified, recurring revenue streams. Station-area monetization reduces dependence on a single segment, smoothing cash flows and supporting long-term value capture from land and foot traffic.

Negative Factors

Declining operating cash flow

A sharp drop in operating cash flow and a negative free cash flow driven by heavy capex weaken internal funding of investments and dividends. Persistent OCF erosion raises reliance on external financing or asset sales, constraining strategic flexibility and increasing financial risk over the medium term.

Rising liabilities

Growing total liabilities, even with moderate D/E, increase fixed obligations and sensitivity to revenue slowdowns. If passenger or airport traffic weakens, higher liabilities raise refinancing and interest risks, potentially forcing tighter capital spending and affecting long-term infrastructure projects.

Earnings volatility / EPS decline

A steep negative EPS growth rate and volatile EBIT margins point to earnings instability, complicating forecasting and long-term planning. Earnings volatility can undermine investor confidence, restrict reinvestment capacity, and make sustaining dividends or funding large capex more challenging.

Keisei Electric Railway Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides public transportation services in Japan. The company offers railway transportation services between Narita airport and downtown Tokyo, as well as onward to Haneda airport. It also operates buses; and provides taxi services. In addition, the company engages in store, department store, shopping center, and garden plant wholesale businesses. Further, it is involved in the sale of condominium; and real estate leasing, restaurants, movies, hotels, advertising agencies, travel agencies, and other businesses. Additionally, the company builds and maintains various facilities, including residential buildings; and engages in the rail car maintenance, insurance agency, and driving school businesses. It operates 620 train cars covering 152.3 kilometers and 69 stations. The company was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Ichikawa, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Keisei Electric Railway generates revenue primarily through passenger fares from its railway services, which constitute the largest portion of its income. Additional revenue streams include income from real estate ventures, such as leasing commercial properties and developing residential projects near its railway stations. The company also earns money from its bus transportation operations and various retail and dining establishments located within its stations. Partnerships with tourism entities, including airport services at Narita, further contribute to its earnings, as they drive passenger traffic and increase fare revenues.

Keisei Electric Railway Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keisei Electric Railway Co demonstrates strong revenue and profit recovery with solid margins. However, cash flow management challenges due to high capital expenditures and decreased operating cash flow could impact future liquidity.

Income Statement

Keisei Electric Railway Co has shown a strong recovery in revenue and profitability over recent years. The company increased its total revenue from ¥214,157 million in 2022 to ¥319,314 million in 2025. The gross profit margin improved to 27.77% in 2025, and the net profit margin stood at 21.9%, reflecting efficient cost management and robust demand. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have been slightly volatile, with EBIT margin at 11.28% and EBITDA margin at 42.59% in 2025, indicating room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

Keisei Electric Railway Co maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65 in 2025, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is 46.52%, showing a healthy reliance on equity financing. Return on equity improved significantly to 13.74% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability. However, the company's total liabilities have increased over the years, which could pose a risk if revenue growth slows.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis shows a mixed performance. Operating cash flow has decreased from ¥60,045 million in 2024 to ¥41,149 million in 2025, and free cash flow turned negative at ¥-22,048 million in 2025, largely due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.59, suggesting a need to enhance cash generation efficiency, while the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in covering investments with operational earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	322.35B	319.31B	296.51B	252.34B	214.16B	207.76B
Gross Profit	87.31B	88.69B	74.72B	54.16B	33.12B	18.66B
EBITDA	139.85B	136.00B	157.85B	41.85B	29.97B	359.00M
Net Income	69.36B	69.96B	87.66B	26.93B	-4.44B	-30.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09T	1.09T	1.06T	965.57B	900.35B	900.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.73B	51.53B	82.46B	34.61B	25.51B	29.13B
Total Debt	370.02B	329.40B	364.69B	359.82B	339.65B	327.59B
Total Liabilities	560.65B	569.46B	595.05B	554.63B	512.64B	504.65B
Stockholders Equity	517.34B	508.99B	451.62B	394.91B	369.76B	378.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-22.05B	5.51B	14.41B	-9.40B	-24.07B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	41.15B	60.05B	47.24B	28.83B	9.28B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-9.24B	28.14B	-29.50B	-33.76B	-28.68B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-62.87B	-40.26B	-20.92B	1.24B	21.50B

Keisei Electric Railway Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1295.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9009, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1295.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1301.22, above the 50-day MA of 1283.99, and below the 200-day MA of 1314.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 22.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:9009.

Keisei Electric Railway Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9044	78 Outperform	¥352.97B	14.09	―	1.61%	6.55%	-12.49%
9020	74 Outperform	¥4.39T	19.21	7.85%	1.69%	4.61%	5.75%
9009	72 Outperform	¥688.76B	12.68	13.92%	1.50%	6.30%	-16.29%
9007	70 Outperform	¥645.51B	14.27	8.51%	2.96%	-2.82%	-50.73%
9142	70 Neutral	¥607.36B	12.99	9.26%	2.68%	10.39%	32.43%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
9001	62 Neutral	¥617.43B	10.84	8.78%	2.49%	1.72%	10.19%

Keisei Electric Railway Co Corporate Events

Keisei Electric Railway Lifts Revenue but Warns of Sharper Profit Decline

Keisei Electric Railway reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in consolidated operating revenue to ¥247.6 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, but operating profit fell 4.1% to ¥31.5 billion and ordinary profit slipped 2.7% to ¥51.3 billion, while profit attributable to owners of parent dropped 30.2% to ¥42.4 billion, reflecting margin pressure despite top-line growth. The company strengthened its financial position with total assets rising to ¥1.14 trillion and an improved equity ratio of 48.6%, maintained its previously announced dividend plan after a three-for-one stock split implemented on January 1, 2025, and left its full-year forecast unchanged, projecting modest revenue growth but double-digit declines in profit, signaling a more challenging earnings environment ahead for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9009) stock is a Hold with a Yen1371.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keisei Electric Railway Co stock, see the JP:9009 Stock Forecast page.