Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥12.33T
• Dividend Yield: 3.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: -2.10%
• EPS Growth: -8.76%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 43,870
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 111.83
• Shares Outstanding: 1,934,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,788,580
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,314,843
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥6,748.57
• Price Target Upside: 13.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥6,993.00 ▲(17.43% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 11/21/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 11/21/25

Tokio Marine Holdings has a solid financial foundation with strong profitability and cash flow management. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which is a significant risk. The stock's attractive valuation offers some upside potential, but the recent revenue decline and technical downtrend are key concerns.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage

A debt-to-equity of 0.12 indicates durable financial flexibility and low leverage, enabling the company to absorb underwriting shocks, fund catastrophe payouts, and pursue acquisitions or investments without stressing capital structure or requiring costly external funding.

Strong cash conversion

Efficient conversion of net income into free cash flow supports sustainable dividend funding, reinvestment, and balance sheet repair. Reliable FCF reduces reliance on capital markets, underpins long-term capital allocation, and improves resilience through insurance cycles.

Improving profitability

A material rise in net margin reflects stronger underwriting discipline, expense control and investment returns. Sustained higher margins enhance retained earnings, bolster solvency buffers, and create lasting capacity to invest in growth or return capital to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Revenue volatility and decline

A falling and volatile top line suggests structural challenges in new business or pricing power. Persistent revenue weakness can constrain scale benefits, limit underwriting diversification, and reduce long-term earnings growth potential despite margin gains.

Volatile free cash flow

Extreme FCF volatility undermines predictability of cash available for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment. It signals sensitivity to timing of claims, investment realizations or one-offs, complicating multi-quarter capital planning and increasing execution risk.

Catastrophe and reinsurance exposure

Structural exposure to natural catastrophes and rising reinsurance costs creates persistent earnings volatility and higher loss load. Over time this raises combined ratios, increases capital requirements and can force higher pricing or constrained underwriting in exposed markets.

Tokio Marine Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. engages in non-life and life insurance, and financial and general businesses worldwide. It operates through four segments: Domestic Non-Life Insurance, Domestic Life Insurance, International Insurance, and Financial and Other. The company offers fire and allied lines, hull and cargo, health, personal accident, automobile, and other insurance products, as well as asset management services. It also provides investment advisory, investment trust, staffing, facility management, and nursing care services. The company was formerly known as Millea Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. in 2008. Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tokio Marine Holdings generates revenue primarily through underwriting insurance premiums from its various insurance products, which include property and casualty insurance and life insurance. The company earns income by collecting premiums from policyholders and investing these funds in a diversified portfolio of assets, including stocks, bonds, and real estate, to generate investment income. Key revenue streams include premiums from commercial and personal insurance policies, as well as annuities and other life insurance products. Additionally, Tokio Marine engages in reinsurance activities and has formed strategic partnerships to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, further contributing to its earnings.

Tokio Marine Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tokio Marine Holdings demonstrates strong profitability with improved net profit margins and robust cash flow management. However, the decline in revenue growth and volatility in free cash flow growth are concerns.

Income Statement

Tokio Marine Holdings has demonstrated strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 100% over the years. The net profit margin improved significantly from 5.81% in 2022 to 13.91% in 2025, indicating enhanced efficiency and cost management. However, the revenue growth rate has been volatile, with a notable decline of 5.10% in 2025, which could be a concern for future growth prospects. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown improvement, reflecting better operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12 in 2025, indicating prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio has remained stable, showcasing a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the return on equity (ROE) data is missing for recent years, which limits a comprehensive assessment of shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Tokio Marine Holdings has shown strong cash flow management with a high free cash flow to net income ratio close to 1, indicating efficient conversion of net income into free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting strong cash generation from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, although it showed extreme volatility with an 'Infinity' value in 2025, which requires further investigation.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.26T	7.58T	7.08T	6.31T	5.75T	5.32T
Gross Profit	8.26T	6.57T	6.13T	5.46T	5.00T	4.63T
EBITDA	1.78T	1.71T	1.06T	726.82B	724.58B	397.33B
Net Income	1.32T	1.06T	695.81B	374.61B	420.48B	161.80B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.56T	31.24T	30.59T	27.40T	27.25T	25.77T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.07T	896.90B	871.99B	848.82B	812.01B
Total Debt	225.76B	625.73B	996.22B	222.81B	1.67T	230.60B
Total Liabilities	25.64T	26.13T	25.41T	23.80T	23.17T	22.04T
Stockholders Equity	4.94T	5.08T	5.18T	3.58T	4.02T	3.67T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.32T	1.05T	982.83B	1.07T	1.15T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	1.35T	1.07T	1.01T	1.10T	1.18T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	177.45B	-616.43B	29.16B	-658.65B	-725.69B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.20T	-417.42B	-1.02T	-511.42B	-518.29B

Tokio Marine Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5955.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8766, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5955 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6046.70, above the 50-day MA of 5954.24, and below the 200-day MA of 5959.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 152.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8766.

Tokio Marine Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8630	76 Outperform	¥5.51T	23.80	―	2.82%	11.37%	27.90%
8725	72 Outperform	¥6.37T	8.98	16.44%	2.59%	23.01%	2.59%
7181	72 Outperform	¥1.76T	11.58	―	2.44%	-21.38%	58.05%
8750	69 Neutral	¥5.79T	12.87	10.61%	3.26%	-8.02%	5.21%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8766	66 Neutral	¥12.33T	11.73	19.96%	3.33%	-2.10%	-8.76%
8795	61 Neutral	¥2.06T	17.25	8.83%	2.74%	-1.96%	10.32%

Tokio Marine Holdings Corporate Events

Tokio Marine Overhauls Top Management to Strengthen Strategy, Governance and AI Focus

Tokio Marine Holdings has announced a broad reshuffle of representative directors, directors and executive officers effective April 1, 2026, following recommendations from its group nomination committee. Key changes include appointing Yoichi Moriwaki as CSO, Kiyoshi Wada as CAO, and Yoshinari Endo as CFO, while several senior leaders take on new mandates across strategy, audit, solutions and Japan business.

The personnel moves also strengthen links with core subsidiary Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance, with multiple executives scheduled to concurrently hold roles at both entities, and the creation of new leadership positions such as Chief AI Officer and Chief Legal and Compliance Officer. The reorganization underscores Tokio Marine’s push to enhance governance, capital strategy, AI and data utilization, and international operations as it refines its business portfolio and prepares for its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8766) stock is a Hold with a Yen6801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokio Marine Holdings stock, see the JP:8766 Stock Forecast page.

Tokio Marine to Adopt Audit and Supervisory Committee Structure, Strengthen Governance

Tokio Marine Holdings will shift its governance structure from a Company with Audit and Supervisory Board to a Company with Audit and Supervisory Committee, aiming to better balance growth strategy and governance and to make its framework more intelligible to global investors. The move, subject to shareholder approval in June 2026, integrates the functions of the existing Group Audit Committee, strengthens the role of outside directors, and is intended to accelerate decision-making while reinforcing oversight and internal controls.

After the transition, the board will comprise 17 directors, including five Audit and Supervisory Committee members, with outside directors making up 52.9% of the board and chairing all key committees. The structure also boosts diversity, with women accounting for 35.3% of directors and non-Japanese members 11.8%, signaling a stronger emphasis on independent oversight, transparent nomination and compensation decisions, and governance standards aligned with global best practice.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8766) stock is a Hold with a Yen6801.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokio Marine Holdings stock, see the JP:8766 Stock Forecast page.

Tokio Marine Posts Higher Revenue but Softer Profit, Lifts Dividend Payout

Tokio Marine Holdings reported consolidated ordinary income of ¥6.67 trillion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 6.8% year on year, while ordinary profit slipped 1.4% to ¥1.20 trillion and net income attributable to owners of the parent edged up 0.5% to ¥899.3 billion. Total assets rose to ¥31.85 trillion and the equity capital ratio improved to 16.7%, indicating a solid balance sheet despite a modest decline in profitability.

The insurer maintained its dividend stance, confirming an annual dividend forecast of ¥211 per share for fiscal 2025, up from ¥172 a year earlier, underscoring a continued focus on shareholder returns. It also revised its full-year forecast, now projecting a 5.5% decline in ordinary profit and a 3.3% fall in net income, signaling expectations of softer earnings momentum in the final quarter even as capital strength and cash distributions remain robust.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8766) stock is a Hold with a Yen6763.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokio Marine Holdings stock, see the JP:8766 Stock Forecast page.

Tokio Marine Nearly Maxes Out ¥130 Billion Share Buyback Authorization

Tokio Marine Holdings has completed a share repurchase program authorized by its board on 19 November 2025, buying back 24,904,156 common shares between 1 and 18 December 2025 at a total cost of approximately ¥130 billion. The buyback, which essentially maxed out the approved monetary ceiling while using only part of the 80 million-share volume authorization, underscores the insurer’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder returns through aggressive equity reduction, potentially improving earnings per share and signaling confidence in the company’s financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8766) stock is a Hold with a Yen5778.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokio Marine Holdings stock, see the JP:8766 Stock Forecast page.

Tokio Marine Completes Self-Tender Offer as Part of Share Buyback Program

Tokio Marine Holdings has completed a tender offer for its own common shares as part of a previously announced share repurchase program authorized by its board of directors on November 19, 2025. The offer, conducted between November 20 and December 18, 2025, set the purchase price at 5,220 yen per share, with cash settlement to begin on January 15, 2026 through Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, and is expected to enhance capital efficiency and shareholder returns by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8766) stock is a Hold with a Yen5778.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokio Marine Holdings stock, see the JP:8766 Stock Forecast page.

Tokio Marine Holdings Reports No Share Repurchases Despite Buyback Plan

Tokio Marine Holdings announced that it has not repurchased any of its own shares despite an earlier board resolution to buy back up to 80 million shares, representing about 4.2% of its total issued shares, by April 2026. The lack of share repurchases during the specified period may impact the company’s stock market strategy and investor relations, as the anticipated buyback was intended to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8766) stock is a Hold with a Yen5778.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokio Marine Holdings stock, see the JP:8766 Stock Forecast page.