Tokio Marine Holdings Inc (JP:8766)
:8766
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Tokio Marine Holdings
(8766)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
¥8,872.00
▲(48.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
Score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins/ROE and low recent leverage), tempered by the latest-year revenue contraction and volatile cash flow. Technicals remain supportive due to a clear uptrend, but overbought momentum indicators raise near-term risk. Valuation is reasonably attractive with a moderate P/E and a ~2.7% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Profitability / ROE
High net margins and elevated ROE indicate durable underwriting profitability and efficient capital allocation. The multi-year margin improvement (from ~3% in 2021 to ~14% in 2025, modestly easing to ~13% in 2026) supports internal capital generation for reserves, dividends, and strategic reinvestment over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue Contraction
A ~6% decline in annual revenue in 2026 interrupts prior growth momentum and may reflect reduced premium volumes, pricing pressure, or competitive dynamics in key lines. Persistent top-line softness would limit float growth and constrain long-term earnings expansion unless management restores premium growth or improves retention.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability / ROE
High net margins and elevated ROE indicate durable underwriting profitability and efficient capital allocation. The multi-year margin improvement (from ~3% in 2021 to ~14% in 2025, modestly easing to ~13% in 2026) supports internal capital generation for reserves, dividends, and strategic reinvestment over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥14.09T
Dividend Yield3.33%
Average Volume (3M)4.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.2
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth-1.60%
EPS Growth-4.78%
CountryJP
Employees43,870
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)684.07
Shares Outstanding1,934,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,788,580
30 Day Avg. Volume4,314,843
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.89
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio25.77
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥9,060.00Price Target Upside52.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)508.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥8.91T
Tokio Marine Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services conglomerate primarily specializing in life and non-life insurance products, alongside a variety of financial and general business activities. The company manages its operations through fo...
How the Company Makes Money
Tokio Marine Holdings makes money mainly through its insurance businesses (non-life and life) and the investment of funds generated from those operations. In non-life insurance (property and casualty), it earns revenue primarily from written premi...
Tokio Marine Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showcased strong financial performance and growth in FY 2024, with positive forecasts for FY 2025. However, challenges such as social inflation in North America, a decrease in life insurance premiums, and concerns with CRE loans and repair costs due to inflation were highlighted.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance in FY 2024
Adjusted net income for FY 2024 was JPY680.9 billion, exceeding the February forecast by JPY27.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14%.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Social Inflation in North America
There was a large provisioning for liability insurance in North America due to social inflation, highlighting ongoing challenges in this area.
Read all updates
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance in FY 2024
Adjusted net income for FY 2024 was JPY680.9 billion, exceeding the February forecast by JPY27.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the FY 2024 results and FY 2025 presentation call, several key metrics were highlighted. For FY 2024, Tokio Marine reported an adjusted net income of JPY 680.9 billion, which was JPY 27.9 billion higher than the forecast in February, primarily due to the yen's appreciation against foreign currencies. The normalized adjusted net income was JPY 679.0 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year growth. The company's sales of business-related equities reached JPY 922 billion, exceeding forecasts by JPY 10 billion, contributing to an adjusted net income, including these gains, of JPY 1.215 trillion. For FY 2025, the company projects an adjusted net income of JPY 700 billion, excluding gains from equity sales, indicating a 3% growth from the previous year's normalized income. The forecasted sales of business-related equities remain at JPY 600 billion, with an expected adjusted net income of JPY 1.100 trillion after completing these sales. Shareholder returns are planned to increase, with a dividend per share (DPS) growth of 40% in FY 2024, resulting in a DPS of JPY 172, and a further increase to JPY 210 in FY 2025, representing a 22% growth. The company also announced a share buyback plan of JPY 220 billion for FY 2025, with JPY 110 billion approved for immediate repurchase.Tokio Marine Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.99T | 7.51T | 7.58T | 7.08T | 6.21T | 5.66T |
| Gross Profit | 4.33T | 3.66T | 3.95T | 3.72T | 3.14T | 3.05T |
| EBITDA | 1.78T | 1.61T | 1.71T | 1.06T | 726.82B | 724.58B |
| Net Income | 1.32T | 980.43B | 1.06T | 695.81B | 374.60B | 420.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.56T | 31.96T | 31.24T | 30.59T | 27.40T | 27.25T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03T | 1.03T | 1.07T | 896.90B | 871.99B | 848.82B |
| Total Debt | 225.76B | 227.00B | 227.25B | 224.40B | 222.81B | 219.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.64T | 26.50T | 26.13T | 25.41T | 23.80T | 23.17T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.94T | 5.42T | 5.08T | 5.18T | 3.58T | 4.02T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 539.30B | 1.32T | 1.05T | 982.83B | 1.07T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 584.26B | 1.35T | 1.07T | 1.01T | 1.10T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 654.53B | 177.45B | -616.43B | 29.16B | -658.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -639.06B | -1.20T | -417.42B | -1.02T | -511.42B |
Tokio Marine Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
5955.00
Price Trends
7247.51
Positive
6650.43
Positive
6285.96
Positive
Market Momentum
4.17
Positive
56.00
Neutral
78.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8766, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5955 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7352.35, below the 50-day MA of 7247.51, and below the 200-day MA of 6285.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8766.
Tokio Marine Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | ¥6.69T | 8.57 | 16.97% | 2.59% | 21.58% | 19.34% | |
77 Outperform | ¥14.09T | 14.15 | 20.81% | 3.33% | -1.60% | -4.78% | |
74 Outperform | ¥6.36T | 14.40 | 10.61% | 3.26% | 10.30% | 3.49% | |
74 Outperform | ¥5.69T | 8.57 | ― | 2.82% | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | ¥2.23T | 16.27 | 7.91% | 2.74% | 6.17% | 16.15% | |
46 Neutral | ¥1.69T | 9.86 | ― | 2.44% | -12.57% | 42.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8766
Tokio Marine Holdings
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27.79%
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Tokio Marine Holdings Corporate Events
Tokio Marine to Overhaul Articles of Incorporation in Governance Revamp
May 20, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings plans to amend its Articles of Incorporation to shift from a structure with an Audit and Supervisory Board to a Company with Audit and Supervisory Committee, a move aimed at strengthening corporate governance and enabling cle...
Tokio Marine to Reclassify ¥1.47 Trillion in Capital Reserves
May 20, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings plans to reduce its capital reserve by ¥1.47 trillion and transfer the same amount to other capital surplus, subject to approval at its June 29, 2026 shareholders’ meeting. The move is designed to enhance flexibili...
Tokio Marine Launches Up to ¥200 Billion Share Buyback in 2026 Capital Plan
May 20, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has outlined a capital policy for fiscal 2026 that prioritizes steadily rising dividends and substantial share repurchases, targeting a total of 400 billion yen in buybacks over the year, separate from a previously announced ...
Tokio Marine Raises Year-End Dividend, Lifts Annual Payout to 218 Yen
May 20, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings’ board has approved a proposal to increase its year-end dividend for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, setting a payout of 112.5 yen per share, up from the previously forecast 105.5 yen. With an interim dividend of ...
Tokio Marine Releases FY2026 Subsidiary Results and FY2026 Outlook
May 20, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has released key figures for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, detailing consolidated results, insurance premiums and net income attributable to shareholders. The disclosure highlights the performance of its main domestic...
Tokio Marine lifts dividends as profits soften, eyes IFRS-era earnings rebound
May 20, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings reported a 5.1% rise in ordinary income to ¥8.87 trillion for the year ended March 31, 2026, while ordinary profit fell 7.6% and net income attributable to owners of the parent declined 7.1% to ¥980.4 billion, with ...
Tokio Marine Advances Share Buyback with ¥36.8 Billion Repurchase in April
May 8, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has disclosed the progress of its ongoing share buyback program, reporting the repurchase of 5,126,800 common shares between April 1 and April 30, 2026, at a total cost of approximately ¥36.8 billion. The buybacks form p...
Tokio Marine Finalizes ¥287 Billion Treasury Share Allotment to Berkshire Hathaway Unit
Apr 13, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has completed the disposal of 48,207,200 treasury shares through a third-party allotment to National Indemnity Company, a major insurance firm wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway. Priced at 5,962 yen per share, the transaction...
Tokio Marine Launches ¥287.4 Billion Buyback Linked to Berkshire Partnership
Mar 23, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings will repurchase up to 48,207,200 of its own common shares, representing about 2.6% of its outstanding stock excluding treasury shares, for a total cost of up to ¥287.4 billion between April 1 and September 18, 2026. The ...
Tokio Marine Forms Strategic Partnership with Berkshire Hathaway’s National Indemnity
Mar 23, 2026
Tokio Marine Holdings has entered into a comprehensive strategic partnership with National Indemnity Company, the core reinsurance arm of Berkshire Hathaway, aimed at combining their respective strengths in capital, underwriting and global insuran...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.